{"id":21268,"date":"2018-11-05T23:47:47","date_gmt":"2018-11-06T04:47:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/philip.greenspun.com\/blog\/?p=21268"},"modified":"2018-11-05T23:47:57","modified_gmt":"2018-11-06T04:47:57","slug":"election-outcome-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/philip.greenspun.com\/blog\/2018\/11\/05\/election-outcome-predictions\/","title":{"rendered":"Election outcome predictions?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Folks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What are your election outcome predictions?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So much of the ballot in our town is taken up by candidates running unopposed that I haven’t put much effort into considering Massachusetts outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have three ballot questions, though. Let me go on record with guesses regarding those.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nurses want state-set staffing minimums. Nearly everyone in Massachusetts is somehow dependent on the health care industry, so I think this will fail. Max Weber<\/a> would agree with my prediction, I think.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Question 2 is about forming a commission to complain about Citizens United<\/a><\/em> (nothing is worse than free speech when people say stuff that the righteous don’t want to hear). I predict that this will fail due to its obvious futility. (Though maybe it will win because it enables people to show their righteousness while wasting only a few $million?)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Question 3 is about whether people who attempt to interfere with a biological male using the women’s locker room, for example, should be imprisoned for one year (a longer sentence than the typical Nazi war criminal served). I predict that the “Yes” votes win (preserve the current law, which allows those who fail to keep up with the LGBTQIA times to the pokey). There is no cheaper way to feel virtuous than voting in favor of something that will purportedly help the transgendered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I haven’t studied the close Democrat\/Republican races too closely (I am unable to vote in them), but my general assumption is that most Americans want a planned economy so they’ll vote for Democrats unless a corrupt or similarly flawed candidate is put forward. Then, on the other hand, Americans are fearful of change, so they’ll vote for incumbents. So I will guess that Democrats win 80 percent of the “close” races in which neither candidate is incumbent, 95 percent of the close races in which a Democrat is the incumbent, and only 50 percent of the close races in which a Republican is the incumbent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Readers: What are your best guesses right now?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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