{"id":29037,"date":"2020-11-05T11:08:39","date_gmt":"2020-11-05T16:08:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/philip.greenspun.com\/blog\/?p=29037"},"modified":"2020-11-05T00:25:22","modified_gmt":"2020-11-05T05:25:22","slug":"californians-vote-against-government-sorting-by-victimhood-status","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/philip.greenspun.com\/blog\/2020\/11\/05\/californians-vote-against-government-sorting-by-victimhood-status\/","title":{"rendered":"Californians vote against government sorting by victimhood status"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

In How are Californians doing in restoring their race-based university admissions scheme?<\/a> I predicted that Proposition 16 would get 45 percent of the vote from people in victimhood categories (Black and Hispanic) and then 15 percent of the remaining vote, thus resulting in a 53-47 overall vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The actual vote was 44-56.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aside from general stupidity, how did I get this wrong? One problem with my simplistic analysis is that a lot of Hispanics are under 18 and therefore ineligible to vote. So I should have looked at the size of these victimhood groups relative to the overall population, but with under-18s excluded. (Median age for Hispanics in California is 29; median age for whites nationwide is 43.6<\/a>; Black Americans also have a lower-than-white median age, by about 5 years)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, not everyone votes his\/her\/zir\/their self-interest. Even a proposition intended to help Blacks and Hispanics might not get 100 percent of the vote from Blacks and Hispanics. Seven percent of Blacks identified as Republicans in 2016 (Pew<\/a>), for example, despite the party’s Equal Opportunity (as opposed to Affirmative Action) tendencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So… chalk this up to another one of my election predictions that failed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(See also Elite coastal Jews advocate discrimination against white and Asian males<\/a> on the NYT’s efforts to sway Californians into believing in government-organized sorting by race.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let’s also check in with Mark Zuckerberg uses his $110+ billion wealth to lobby for a tax increase on people other than Mark Zuckerberg<\/a>. The goal of the crazy rich was to soak the not-all-that-rich by increasing commercial property tax rates. This failed 48.3\/51.7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In How are Californians doing in restoring their race-based university admissions scheme? 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