{"id":60775,"date":"2026-03-16T23:55:30","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T03:55:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/philip.greenspun.com\/blog\/?p=60775"},"modified":"2026-03-17T00:07:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T04:07:13","slug":"iran-war-progress-analysis-from-al-jazeera","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/philip.greenspun.com\/blog\/2026\/03\/16\/iran-war-progress-analysis-from-al-jazeera\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran war progress analysis from Al-Jazeera"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

While a lot of Americans, including the New York Times<\/a>, seem enthusiastic about the idea that the U.S. is losing the war against Iran, Al-Jazeera publishes a perspective from a professor in Doha… “The US-Israeli strategy against Iran is working. Here is why”<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“When you look at what has actually happened to Iran\u2019s principal instruments of power \u2013 its ballistic missile arsenal, its nuclear infrastructure, its air defences, its navy and its proxy command architecture \u2013 the picture is not one of US failure. It is one of systematic, phased degradation of a threat that previous administrations allowed to grow for four decades. \u2026 An arsenal built over decades, dismantled in days \u2026 The campaign has moved through two distinct phases. The first suppressed Iran\u2019s air defences, decapitated its command and control, and degraded its missile and drone launch infrastructure. \u2026 The second phase, now under way, targets Iran\u2019s defence industrial base: missile production facilities, dual-use research centres and the underground complexes where remaining stockpiles are stored. \u2026 Iran now faces a strategic dilemma that tightens every day. If it fires its remaining missiles, it exposes launchers that are promptly destroyed. \u2026 Much of the criticism of the US-Israeli campaign focuses on its costs while treating the status quo ante as if it were cost-free. It was not. \u2026 Closing the strait was always Iran\u2019s most visible retaliatory card, and always a wasting asset. About 90 percent of Iran\u2019s own oil exports pass through Kharg Island and then the strait. \u2026 The question is not whether the strait reopens but when and whether Iran retains any naval capacity to contest it. \u2026 the endgame is visible in the operational phasing, even if the rhetoric obscures it. The objective is the permanent degradation of Iran\u2019s ability to project power beyond its borders through missiles, nuclear latency and proxy networks. \u2026 the critics are making a different error: They are treating the costs of action as if the costs of inaction were zero. They were not. They were measured in the slow accretion of a threat that, left unchecked, would have produced exactly the crisis everyone claims to fear: a nuclear-armed Iran capable of closing the Strait of Hormuz at will, surrounded by proxy forces that could hold the entire region hostage indefinitely.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

I’m not sure if Muhanad Seloom is correct, but the fact that A-10 Warthogs are now operating in Iran suggests that he is. Speaking of the Hog, here’s a photo from the 2024 Stuart, Florida air show:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Prof. Seloom seems to assume that the Islamic Republic stays in power and that the U.S. stops its regular bombing runs, thus giving Iran the opportunity to rebuild its military:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

No one is proposing to occupy Tehran. The question is what happens when the bombing stops, and here the critics raise a legitimate concern, which Murphy articulated concisely after a classified briefing: What prevents Iran from restarting production?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Maybe the answer is that there are some adversaries who are indifferent to being bombed and, therefore, you have to keep bombing them every few days indefinitely, e.g., use satellites and drones to see if they’ve managed to rebuild some military capability and, if so, take it out immediately. Wait for a new leader to show up in public and drop a missile on his head. Certainly you can’t let the enemy rebuild its air defenses.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While a lot of Americans, including the New York Times, seem enthusiastic about the idea that the U.S. is losing the war against Iran, Al-Jazeera publishes a perspective […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[44],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60775","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-war"],"yoast_head":"\nIran war progress analysis from Al-Jazeera - Philip Greenspun\u2019s Weblog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/philip.greenspun.com\/blog\/2026\/03\/16\/iran-war-progress-analysis-from-al-jazeera\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Iran war progress analysis from Al-Jazeera - 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