Barack Obama’s campaign has been damaged to some extent by quotes from his days as a community organizer. He sounded like a socialist back then. Would he act on these deeply held personal beliefs once he becomes president? If so, how would American business be able to grow as more tax dollars and resources were diverted to helping the poor, underprivileged, elderly, and unemployable?
Does it make sense to model the behavior of politicians as acting on deeply held personal beliefs? What if we look at them as responding to interest groups and individuals according to the power and wealth of those groups and individuals? The rewards to being responsive can be significant. Ronald Reagan significantly assisted Japanese exporters during his presidency and, upon leaving office, was rewarded with a $2 million payment for a nine-day speaking tour of Japan. Bill Clinton came to office as an upper middle class guy. He collected more than $100 million in personal wealth from his new chums upon leaving the Presidency. Suppose that Barack Obama arrives in the White House and reminds himself that he still has about 40 years to live, only 8 of which will be spent as President. Those 32 post-presidential years could be spent being celebrated by welfare recipients or as the guest of Fortune 500 CEOs. Those 32 post-presidential years could be spent living on a government pension or as billionaire.
What evidence is there that Obama is committed to any group or set of policies other than increased power and wealth for himself? He was elected to the Illinois State Senate in 1996. Had he been passionate about his constituents and their interests, he might have stayed in that job for 20 years. Instead he ran for U.S. Congress after just four years. He was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004. He probably hadn’t found the restrooms in all of the office buildings by the time he decided to abandon his constituents and run for President.
John McCain, by contrast, is far more likely to attempt to damage the interests of the rich and powerful. He is already one of America’s wealthiest men. If he wants a private jet ride or an 11th house for occasional weekend use, he can write a check on his wife’s bank account. By the time he would leave office, McCain would be one of America’s oldest men. His statistical life expectancy would be 7 years. He would be unlikely to live long enough to appreciate a post-retirement gift from a constituency that he helped while in office.
My prediction that Obama will win stands, though I fear that my 5 percent margin of victory may be understated now that the Republicans have nominated a candidate who is 90 percent dead. My new prediction is that Obama will be the friendliest president ever to the rich and powerful and that Obama will be the richest person ever to have been president.
I make McCain the favorite, based on a state-by-state analysis. He has a good chance to win Pennsylvania which Obama must hold in any winning scenario. Obama must also switch Colorado into the D column. If Obama gets “Gore states plus Colorado” it is a 269-269 tie which allows him to win in the House of Representatives, but McCain is likely to win Maine’s northern Congressional District and pick up the extra EV he needs. Therefore Obama needs one additional state that Gore didn’t get and not many are apparent — NH went for Kerry but McCain is strong there. Nevada may be the best chance for Obama to get to 269. (The other red states MO OH FL VA NC IN are not really in play despite current polls, they will break Republican at the end as they always do, barring a major McCain gaffe.)
Good luck in suburbia. Who is this female housemate you have alluded to?
Joe: Just as most Americans think that a 72-year-old is too old to be working hard, people worldwide think that a 45-year-old is too old to be talking about romance. I’m at the stage of life where people would expect to hear about my grandchildren.
Phil: If I understood you correctly, you just suggested that Obama never had interest in his former constituents, and is now simply intersted in utilizing the presidency to befriend wealthy CEOs and get richer. Yet he disparages CEOs almost on a regular basis as overpaid and a focal point of his class warfare philosophy. Under those circumstances I find it hard to believe he will make friends with the rich and powerful, in the very general sense you may be suggesting, unless you define that group to be, e.g., the hollywood elite.
So you predict that Obama wins. Is he who you will be voting for?
More importantly, do you think that the Democrats will get 60 seats in the Senate? I hope they don’t. Not because I’m a Republicrat or Demopublican, but because I fear a supermajority and the attendant excesses from being drunk with power. Checks and balances are a good thing.
Steve: Talk is cheap and easily forgiven. There are a lot of things that politicians say in order to get elected that are quickly forgotten once in office. If you were making $50 million per year as a CEO you could probably handle some harsh words from Candidate Obama. If President Obama were to advocate legislation to prevent you from nominating your golfing buddies to the Board, re-pricing your stock options, etc., you might have a tougher time forgiving that.
Jeff: My vote, like that of any other Massachusetts resident, is irrelevant. I’m not even sure that I will be in town on Election Day (though it would be nice to be able to vote against Kerry). If the Democrats win undisputed control of Congress, the result will be more like a parliamentary system. If the voters don’t like where they’ve gotten to in 2016 they will at least know which party to blame and can vote in a different party (maybe a generation of Republicans will have died off by then and they can nominate someone younger than standard retirement age).