My election prediction: 55/45 popular vote split between Hillary and Trump

by philg

In April 2015 I predicted a Hillary Clinton victory. That posting suggested a 54:45 ratio between Hillary votes and votes for any Republican. It has been 1.5 years. We know who the Republican challenger is. What’s my prediction now? I’m going to bump this up to 55:45 for Hillary:Trump votes (not 55:45 total because at least some people will vote for Gary Johnson, for example).

Additional support for my theory is that Hugo Chavez prevailed over his opponent by approximately 55:45 in the 2012 Venezuelan Presidential election. Chavez lays out a blueprint for any would-be successful politician in a democracy (summary of his biography). Hillary and Chavez promise essentially the same things: prosperity without hard work; increased government handouts; soaking the rich with higher taxes; fairness insured by central planning; more parts of the economy controlled by the government or centrally directed. I don’t think that there is a significant difference between Americans and Venezuelans. So it seems safe to assume that approximately the same number of Venezuelans who were persuaded by Chavez will be persuaded by Hillary.

That’s my prediction! Let’s circle back on Wednesday morning to see who got closest!

Readers: What’s your prediction of the ratio of popular votes between Hillary and Trump? First prize for getting it right (not just with a number but also an explanation for the prediction): I buy lunch next time we’re both in the same city. Second prize: two lunches with me!

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23 thoughts on “My election prediction: 55/45 popular vote split between Hillary and Trump”

  1. 52% Hillary because that’s how many folks vote for Dems.
    45% Trump because that how many people think WWF is unscripted sport.
    3% other because that’s how many people believe in the healing power of crystals.

    There’s a nice restaurant in town called Herons. Its near the airport and where the candidates sometimes dine on their trips to the area.

  5. 51.5:48.5 Hillary because we’re not quite Venezuela yet. I’m so far down in flyover country you’ll never have to pay up unless we’re both changing planes in Atlanta.

  6. 100:0 H-Rod victory. Wondering if it’s worth reloading CNN.com or getting the bing bang on Wednesday’s train ride. How about a free helicopter ride.

  7. 48:47 H:D, with third parties getting more votes than usual due to dislike of both candidates. I’d bet large sums against a 10 point H win.

  8. http://fivethirtyeight.com/ gives a popular vote of 48.6 Clinton, 45% Trump and 4.8% Johnson.

    Both main contenders promise ‘money for no hard work’ (decreasing supply of competition for jobs, decreasing supply of foreign manufactured goods, higher taxation for someone else).

  10. My predictions: Markedly lower black turnout than 2012 or 2008; Bernie bros stay home to a disappointing extent; hispanics stay home to a usual extent; Trump gets a better or much better result than Romney among whites, blacks and hispanics. I’m afraid my electoral skills are insufficient to translate those into percentages or electoral votes.

    On CNBC, Goldman Sachs predicts Hillary to win, Dems to win Senate, Reps to win House. Markets were rallying yesterday, so I take it they are seeing a Hillary presidency always twirling, twirling into the future.

    It seems unlikely for obvious reasons that Hillary will be on TV haranguing the population for hours, however. Perhaps there can be a hologram.

  13. 51:44 Hillary:Trump. 5% other (4% Johnson) The Republicans find the only person on the planet capable of losing to Hillary.
    Senate 50:50
    House stays Republican

    I’m in CT so perhaps I can come up and you can give me my second helicopter lesson.

  15. Hillary (D): 50.5% — down 0.6 from Obama 2012, black turnout down, Hispanic turnout up against Trump, millennials soft showing but still significant, boomer (old hippies) turnout down disgusted with both choices

    Donald (R): 44.5% — down 2.7 from Romney 2012, angry rednecks don’t like to wait in line if not allowed to carry their carbine, many sophisticated conservatives with a conscience vote Hillary #NeverTrump, some disillusioned $45k-$95k voters switch from D > R but not enough to make up for stay home losses

    5% other

  16. 49:48 Hillary:Trump – People who support Trump are keeping their heads low. They really don’t want people to know who they are voting for.

    I don’t know about electoral votes. Too many variables to predict, but it looks like Hillary will be closer than Trump.

  17. Maybe now we will finally be able to get Sean Penn as Secretary of State. And Meryl Streep on the supreme court.

    No, I’m kidding. Clinton will only appoint those who have proven ability to keep funneling hundreds of millions of dollars to “the foundation”.

  19. 53:47 Hillary:Trump

    The democratic votes from the coasts are too significant for Trump to overcome. But electoral votes are decided by a small margin.

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