How to Get Rich from Online Personals?

One of the pleasures of being an old lazy person is helping young energetic people achieve their dreams.  I’ve been working with a young very capable guy since around 1997.  He sold his last company, traveled a bit, and is now starting up a business centered around online personal ads.  I’m supposed to be helping him but of course being old and lazy it would be much easier to harvest good ideas from the comments section of this blog.  So let’s hear your creative ideas for some new business that is somehow related to online personals….


To frame the discussion a bit, a bit of background (but not so much that ideas will be constrained):


1) in a world where people won’t pay for online subscriptions, they seem to be happy to pay for online personal sites (a plus for a new business)


2) more or less everything that can be monopolized on the Internet has been monopolized, i.e., assume that Amazon owns retail, eBay owns classifieds, match.com owns the underlying personals database, etc.  This means that you can’t start a business whose objective is to unseat or even compete with any of the established monopolies.  One’s goal must be to work within the environment that the monopolies have established.  (And possibly to get acquired by one in the long run.)


Thoughts?

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Why the Supreme Court affirmative action decision was right

The Washington Post carries an interesting article today on why the recent Supreme Court decision allowing the state of Michigan to continue its race-based affirmative action program is “welcome”.  The absence of these ideas from earlier debates shows how easy it is to forget that the American people have, in theory, some political power to change laws (Paul Krugman op-ed today reminds us of the opposite.)


(The Post article also carries a link to last week’s column in which the same writer argues in favor of a tax on imported oil, as at the end of my Israel Essay.)

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Privatization of Air Traffic Control

Measured objectively, the government sector of the United States runs some of the developed world’s worst-performing schools and the best-performing aviation system.  Yet oddly enough it is the air traffic control system that politicians propose to privatize.


Privatization is currently underway for flight service stations.  These are FAA employees who don’t separate airplanes from each other but instead provide varied forms of assistance.  You can call Flight Service on the telephone to ask about the weather before departing.  You can call Flight Service on the radio to ask where the thunderstorms are along your route or what the closest airport with good weather is.  You can call Flight Service in an emergency.  These folks are incredibly resourceful and helpful by and large and often go far beyond their job description in an effort to help pilots.


The folks at www.naats.org are trying to save their jobs and they’ve put together a very interesting audio clip that is worth hearing whether or not you care about this issue:  http://www.naats.org/docs/flightassist.mp3 (you may decide not to fly with beginner private pilots after listening to these emergency calls).


Plan for today… fly to Republic Airport on Long Island and swim in Bob’s pool, then back to Bedford and over to the Weston Town Green for a 7 pm concert by Not the Beatles (the infamous Luke, of Harvard Square fame, is lead guitar).  The concert is free but bring your own blanket and picnic.  Alex will be there!

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Universities: Training America’s youth to be racist

A grim day in the Supreme Court.  Libraries can filter out porn sites, which means that philip.greenspun.com won’t be accessible (there are a few nude pix on it but the filtering companies generally block the whole site).  Judging a man (or woman) by the color of his skin gets Supreme Court blessing as well.


My personal primary argument against affirmative action at universities was never voiced during the debate so I’ll present it here.


Background:  Getting into a selective university is partly a consequence of high IQ and fortunate preparation but a lot of doing well at all levels of school is a question of how willing a student is to accept authority blindly.  For example, I was amazed last semester when tutoring 6.002 (intro circuit theory).  My friend Gerry delivered several lectures on the response of linear systems to complex exponentials.  I said “Gerry you have to motivate this by telling the students that any real-world signal can be represented as a sum of complex exponentials.  Otherwise, why would they care?”  Gerry refused to take even 30 seconds out of his lecture time to explain why what he was teaching was relevant.  I waited for the MIT sophomores to tune out.  They never did!  They paid attention, took notes, did the problem sets, etc., even though they had no idea what any of the stuff was good for.  Then it hit me:  high school teachers don’t always motivate the material either, MIT only accepts students who did well in high school, ergo all students at MIT are people who are willing to do stuff merely because a teacher (authority figure) says to do it.


Top schools select heavily for people who respect authority and those who respect authority the most tend to do the best once in college.  It is thus no mystery that Asian immigrant children do well and ghetto kids raised on rap music (“fuck the police”) don’t do so well, even if both groups start out with the same IQ.


Assertion:  Affirmative action programs at universities do not result in a reduction of prejudice but rather inculcate prejudice in people who would otherwise be fair-minded.


Example of how this happens:  Consider a hypothetical race of Bodleians, people from the Planet Bodleia.  Bodleians on average do not perform well in high school and are under-represented at universities.  If admissions were race-blind Big State U would be 5% Bodleian, 40% white, and 55% Asian.  Administrators at Big State U establish a program that gets rid of 5% of the Asians and replaces them with Bodleians.  Now Big State U is 10% Bodleian.


Consider Joe Whiteboy, a new graduate student who has no preconceived ideas about Bodleians.  He is a teaching assistant for undergrad courses and, after three semesters, notices that all of the students who got Fs were Bodleian.  Not all Bodleians got Fs, mind you.  In fact some of Joe’s best students were Bodleians, presumably drawn from the 5% who would have gotten in under a race-blind system.  That said, Joe’s very worst students were all Bodleian.  They didn’t do any of the homework, seldom showed up to class, and didn’t seem to care about academics.  Grading in these big courses is all based on exam scores so it couldn’t have been prejudice by other staff members that resulted in the Bodleian failure.  Joe Whiteboy starts his fourth semester of TAing and sees four Bodleians in his section.  He gets a sinking feeling in the pit of his stomach.  Though he hopes that one or two will be quite bright, he expects that at least two of these minorities will fail the class.  Joe Whiteboy has learned prejudice at Big State U, as have all of the white and Asian undergrads who watched the failure of such a high percentage of Bodleians in their classes. 


Is it so bad for our state schools to teach prejudice?  Our prejudiced graduate can make $300,000 per year as a radiologist.  He reads the MRI scans and probably nobody will ever ask what he thinks of Bodleians as a group.  He’d think twice about hiring a Bodleian but his prejudice isn’t a career liability for him.


What about for the 5% of Bodleians who would have gotten into Big State U?  Affirmative action is a disaster for them.  Consider the used car market.  Very few used cars are lemons but it is tough as a buyer to figure out whether or not a used car is reliable.  Economists have demonstrated that the result, in the absence of certification programs and warrantees, is people valuing all cars as though they were lemons.  A Bodleian with a degree from Big State U will be treated as a potential lemon.


Suggestion:  Public universities should be race-blind.  There are enough high achievers from every ethnic group that every university student will have some contact with politically favored minorities and those students will learn an important lesson:  politically favored minorities are every bit as smart as whites and Asians.


How do we help under-represented minorities?  Our public schools are so expensive that, at no extra cost to taxpayers, we could fly ghetto kids out of the ghetto and into a top boarding school in an authority-respecting, achievement-oriented society, e.g., India, Hong Kong, or Korea.  When they come back from their sojourn among the diligent, they’ll be able to get into just about any American college.


Homework assignment:  watch the documentary Spellbound, currently in theaters, to see how American kids from different ethnic groups prepare for the National Spelling Bee (my college classmate Barrie Trinkle was the winner in 1973 but sadly she was not interviewed).


Tidbit:  Our local school system here in Cambridge, Massachusetts is the most expensive in Massachusetts and also one that has some of the lowest test scores in the state, i.e., we are producing the kids that need affirmative action to get into college.  I ate Thanksgiving dinner with a couple of Mexican children whose father was spending a year at Harvard and therefore they had enrolled in Cambridge public school.  I asked them how they compared their school experience in Cambridge versus Mexico and was it difficult to attend classes in English when their native language was Spanish.  They replied “School here is much easier.  In Mexico we had to work until 8:00 pm every night doing homework but in Cambridge we never have to study at all.”

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Favorite island in the South Pacific? Place to stop in Europe?

Let’s see whether the blog works in reverse…


At the end of July I must give a talk in Sydney, Australia.  The plan is to fly west around the world.  It would be possible to stop somewhere in the South Pacific, perhaps most easily in Fiji.  On the way back I am planning to stop in Western Australia and then St. Petersburg, Russia.


The questions:


1) best place to stop in the South Pacific for a few days?  Is there a great place to sit in a hotel and snorkel from the beach in Fiji?


2) interesting place to stop in mid-August between Perth, Australia and Russia?


Constraints:  (a) I have an Israeli stamp in my U.S. passport from my recent trip to Tel Aviv and therefore would be denied entry to almost any Muslim country; (b) I want to take reasonably direct flights (and therefore Africa seems to be out of the question; you can’t get there except by connecting through Europe or Dubai (which might be a problem with that Israeli passport stamp)).


Please put your suggestions in the comments or email if you prefer.


Thanks!

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Why the stock market keeps going up

Americans are out of work.  Factory orders are sluggish.  The economic news is grim yet the U.S. stock market keeps going up.  Can this be consistent?  Sure!  It is possible to believe simultaneously that the American people are getting poorer and that the largest American corporations are going to get ever richer.  How could this happen?  Group A and Group B can get richer if they work together to grow the pie.  Alternatively, Group B can get richer by transferring wealth from Group A.


We’ve discussed this already in this blog in the context of airline CEOs who managed to take $billions in taxpayer money and transfer quite a bit of it into their personal checking accounts as salaries, bonuses, guaranteed pensions, etc.  But there are more subtle ways in which corporations can acquire property formerly held by the public.


For example, movie studios (notably Disney) and other corporate copyright holders recently purchased a federal law that extended copyright out to 100 years (the Founders had it at 14; it was 75 years until recently).  There was no way for them to argue that this law would provide an incentive to authors because it applied to works that were created in the 1920s, i.e., whose authors had been dead for half a century or more.  The effect of this law was to transfer public average-Joe property (public-domain works) into the hands of large corporations, i.e., the companies whose shares are going up.


Disney figures in another corporate property transfer.  Ever since the dawn of aviation it has been held that airspace belongs to the public and is to be regulated for the benefit of all by the FAA.  This is what, for example, prevents the owner of a farm in Missouri from demanding that Delta Airlines pay him a tax every time they fly over his farm.  In May of this year that changed for the first time.  Disney essentially now owns the airspace over Disneyworld and Disneyland and they can exclude anyone from overflying.  They’d been trying for years to exclude planes towing advertising banners but Sept. 11th gave them a security rationale (though neither the TSA or the FAA felt there was a security risk or wanted to transfer the airspace into private hands).  Background story: http://www.aero-news.net/news/sport.cfm?ContentBlockID=9601


Let’s hope the comments section will fill up with other examples of this trend.  But the bottom line is that the time seems ripe to invest in the S&P 500.  Look around you at stuff that you believe to be public property.  Very likely it will soon be given away to America’s largest corporations and consequently their stock will go up even if they don’t innovate.

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Car/Kennel

Conventional wisdom says “never leave a dog in a car” because he’ll die from the heat. A modern car, however, has nearly all of the makings of a perfect kennel: (1) two energy sources: battery and gas tank/engine, (2) fans that can bring in fresh air, (3) interior temperature sensors (cars where you set “72 degrees” on the dashboard), (4) power windows, (5) clear windows that are coated with high-tech materials that reject IR and UV light. Plus the car is a familiar place for the dog and most dogs seem to prefer being in their normal car to being tied up somewhere unfamiliar. With 100 lines of computer programming a car could do the following:

  1. blow air in or, ideally, out of the car when the temperature rose above 70 degrees
  2. roll down the windows a bit
  3. turn the engine on and start the air conditioner, notifying the owner that it was getting a bit roasty out there for Fido [doing this mass-market would require a working wireless Internet infrastructure in the United States, something that has been discussed here earlier but is apparently not a high priority for our politicians]
  4. if the gas tank were getting low, roll down all the windows and shut off the engine, notifying the owner that the dog was at risk of escape or theft

The system could be made a bit better if the car had, in addition to the windows, a slideable stainless steel or Kevlar mesh that could roll up and down. Then the dog and the car could be secure with all the windows up.

Because car makers don’t open their computer systems to programming (I never thought I’d say this but I wish that cars ran Windows XP so that I could add the above features myself in Visual Basic), it isn’t possible to build this right now very easily. However, I think I have a solution.

Suppose that you don’t really use the back seat of your car. You can install a stainless steel wire mesh on the inside of the back windows, essentially stapled to the door frame. Attached to the inside of the mesh on one side put a 12V exhaust blower fan. You can now roll down the rear windows, put a sunshade across the windshield, and the temperature inside the car should not exceed the temperature outside. Maybe add a provision for a temporary fine-mesh screen for summer evenings so that mosquitos don’t get into the car.

One issue with the car/kennel idea is that the motor might run the battery down. However the only time you’d want to use the fan is in the summer when the battery power is at its peak and the power required to start the engine is at its lowest. You wouldn’t be leaving the dog for more than an hour or two so even the most powerful fans wouldn’t exhaust the battery.

I’m planning to do this with my next car. I like minivans because it is easy to keep a bicycle in the car (I have trouble walking so like to have a bike available at all times). There are some new minivans available that have middle windows that roll down, e.g., Toyota Sienna 2004. Before I trade in my 5-year-old minivan I am hoping that someone will introduce a gas/electric hybrid minivan but if it doesn’t happen by February 2004 I’ll buy a new Sienna and start stapling.

Better ideas anyone?

[Update 2019: “Tesla introduces ‘Dog Mode’ to keep your pets from getting too hot”]

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Summer weddings should be in waterslide parks

Thus far this summer I’ve endured two weddings.  One was at a golf course by the sea and the other in a fancy hotel in Harvard Square.  Both seem like cruel wastes of a day.  It is so painful to sit indoors and look out the window and think “we could be out there moving around, having fun, enjoying the warm weather.”  The feeling is especially acute if one has driven a long distance to attend the wedding.


Imagine instead a wedding held at a waterslide park.  The ceremony would be at the top of one of the big waterslides and people would leave the aisles by jumping into the tubes.  Instead of warmed-over surf and turf guests could wander around getting freshly grilled hot dogs from the usual theme park vendors.  Rather than having to buy expensive and ugly bridesmaid dresses the guests need only show up in a swimsuit.  Most important everyone would remember that they left the house and had a lot of fun.


Most weddings seem to cost at least $200 per guest and therefore the cost of renting out a smaller and/or older theme park should not be prohibitive.

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