Prediction: Arnold will Lose

by philg

Time to stick my neck out with a prediction:  Arnold will lose the California election today, for reasons that have nothing to do with his recent spate of bad press.  Arnold will lose simply because there are enough craven risk-averse people in California terrified at the prospect of trading a known (Gray Davis) for an unknown (Arnold as politician).  Either (a) the recall will fail and Gray Davis will keep his job, or (b) a lifelong political hack such as Cruz Bustamante will prevail over the replacement candidates without experience in politics.


[Update October 8:  Sometimes when you stick your neck out it gets chopped off…  Arnold seems to have won by a landslide.  This on top of the humiliation of arriving home from flying and finding out that philip.greenspun.com (my main server) was down for 11 hours (it runs on the photo.net box and none of the new staff there seems to have noticed or have monitors installed).]

17 thoughts on “Prediction: Arnold will Lose”

  1. Let’s hope you’re right, because then the lawsuits against the power companies that created the crisis will go ahead. If Arnie wins they’ll be canned. Has California taken delivery of any new corrupt voting machines? That might make a difference.

  2. dave hearsman writes:
    >
    > Has California taken delivery of any new corrupt voting machines?
    > That might make a difference.

    I think the only safe prediction is that if either half of the ballot is close at all, the count (and likely recount) will make the Florida 2000 mess look clean. There are 15 million registered voters in the state, turn-out is expected to be near record, 3.something million absentee ballots went out and only 2.something have come back so far. There are at least 100,000 votes in San Diego that won’t be counted until Thursday (they know this in advance!). Again, most of this only matters if the vote is close. If Davis gets shot down by 60-40 and Arnold polls 40%, it won’t matter. If philg is right and lots of people end up with cold feet and/or finally discover that Arnold is a pig, it’s going to get ugly.

  3. This argument is fundamentally flawed as your assumption is that Davis provides a known. He has increased the level of uncertainty in California. One cannot be certain how large the deficit is. One cannot be certain whether state workers will be paid. One cannot be certain when the electricity will go off at what hour.

    Arnold will be pronounced governor very soon.

  4. No one knows which polls to rely on, but all the pundits seem to agree that there will be a big turnout. That being the case, I can’t imagine risk-aversion being a leading motivation among voters.

    Given Gov. Davis’ long-standing low approval ratings, unimpressive showing in the 2002 election against one of the worst political campaigns of all time, and the low turnout in that victory, I can’t imagine there are that many people who are “terrified” of not having him as Governor.

    If I had to predict, I’d say it’s “Hasta La Vista, Davis”.

  5. The whole affair is sad, and I’m in CA (matter of fact, I’m about 30 minutes from downtown Sacramento right now). I’m voting after work; I only hope that the legislature works with whoever is elected, if the recall passes. If it doesn’t, I hope the legislature and the governor start working together so we avoid a recall sideshow next year…

  6. I guess I am one of those craven risk-averse people, since I’d rather have a known political hack (Davis or Bustamante) as governor than a steroidally-enhanced, megalomaniacal freak. But I’m funny that way.
    The polls say you are wrong and we will have Mr. Action Hero as governor.
    For an interesting perspective on Arnold’s connections with Enron and the $9 billion dollars they ran off with from California, see this

  8. Arnie is now governer of California – it is really a shame that this kind of scenario can’t be simulated or something, instead of actually having to do it for real to see how it turns out.

  11. Oh, man. I so wish I had a witty comment for this, but the Arnold victory just speaks for itself.

  12. Well Conrad, I like your idea of simuating the probability of how a candidate will do in office! I’m sure it’s just a matter of time before the networks have such a program designed.

    I try to understand why the voters of CA could vote for such a crude, aggressive man, but it is beyond me. He never really stated very much what he intended to do in office. I don’t even think he promised not to raise taxes. Is it only his celebrity? Are the people as dumb as Philip as previously stated? Why are all these ignorant, unsavory, macho guys being voted into office?

    Better get the simulation program up and going shortly, as I expect Mike Tyson to throw his hat in the ring next!

  14. I guess the voters of California would rather be groped by a Republican than screwed by a Democrat.

  15. I think the newest law of American politics is that celebrity trumps all. So, when is Madonna running for President?

  16. Predictions of what large numbers of people will do often fail, especially when you assume some sort of reasoning. I know a Harvard economics professor who got out of the stock market in 1995 because stocks were overvalued. Assuming investors to be smart, this was a wise idea. However, given how the bubble continued to expand, it would have been better to stay in 4 or 5 more years. Better luck with your next prediction!

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