After a tour of Louis Kahn’s Salk Institute complex in La Jolla I went to lunch with some local friends. These guys used to make big money programming or administering computer systems and small money playing blackjack. Now their computer jobs are gone and they’re living off their card-counting trips to the casinos. One friend was missing, however. His last job was a $150,000/year position as a system administrator for a large publisher. He was never part of the blackjack team, however. What’s he doing now? After a nationwide search the best job that he could find is doing tech support for America Online in Tampa, Florida. He earns $10.50/hour now.
22 thoughts on “Where are those nerds now? I found out…”
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Wow. Scary stuff. I am sure they are all ten times more talented than I am.
But I admire someone taking a position that pays that much less. There are plenty of people who are refusing at this point.
When someone talks about knowing many unemployed techies, I wish their skills and experience were also mentioned. Because I also hear employers bemoaning the inability to find qualified programmers. It is all confusing and irrational.
Please, when have employers NOT complained about how hard it is to get good help? What is being mentioned here is the disappearance of vast numbers of jobs of all sorts having to do with computers which paid fairly well.
When I was an undergrad taking a course in economics, I remember that it was emphasized how dynamic a market economy could be. There have been pundits for years who advised that you could just about count on having to change your career path more than once due to that dynamism. It’s one thing to read about it and another to experience it. It is pretty damn cold out there even (especially?) with a BS in physics and minor in math, Phi Beta Kappa, NSF Fellow, etc. If you made the mistake of taking programming jobs because they paid well, now you learn why certain choices are called conservative.
My oldest son is approaching college age and his test scores should enable him to compete at any elite school. My own experience was at Caltech as an undergrad and Stanford as a grad student. I had been planning to suggest he consider the field of biotech. My inclination now is to suggest that he focus almost exclusively on a professional degree and possibly forgo the risks of intense competition at elite schools. If you become a doctor or lawyer you might choose to change careers or relocate but it is less likely to be forced on you.
Some recent pleas for programmers, and far too many beers with sysadmins looking for work, have convinced me that many of the lost jobs are admins, and that talented high end programmers are as in-demand as they were back in the mid ’90s.
We got spoiled because kids could get $150k for swapping backup tapes and occasionally “tail”ing logs, but I think that interpreting the lack of market for too many people with those skills as the downfall of tech in general is needlessly depressing.
I had been drawn to system administration by the money that it offered, and then into project manglement. My job was to create processes that would allow a smaller staff of admins to handle more and more machines. Eventually I was no longer needed. Successful yes, rewarding…no.
Now I am back to programming (out of work for 9 months of last two years) and spending most of my time working with the end users. If I am going to stay in this field, then end-user service and analysis is where I will need to be focused.
Cheers!
To Steve Bryan:
Remember that a career in medicine is not just a major in college but a commitment to a very long educational path that will very likely result in your son deferring making any kind of a living until he is thirty, at least. And then there is the expense of the degree which, even if taken at a state-supported school where tuition is subsidized, can easily top $100,000, in addition to any debt from undergraduate school. I wouldn’t discourage anyone with a genuine interest in medicine to go into the field, but job security would be the last reason I would give. And
with residency training defining the area of your practice, changing practice areas isn’t easily done without returning to formal training.
“My inclination now is to suggest that he focus almost exclusively on a professional degree and possibly forgo the risks of intense competition at elite schools’ You’re kidding, right? If I wanted to forgo intense competition, medical school is the last place I would go (at least the medical school I went to).
Regarding a law degree, a friend told me you have to be in the top 10% to even have a fighting chance. The top 1% of law school grads do make quite a bit of money.
And as far as sysadmins getting hit the hardest, I can back that statement. A lot of my friends are still very busy, but they write code, often for 1.0 systems that handle thousands of concurrent users. The only coder I know who has been out of work for an extended period was one who was working on a system for the past 3-4 years that only ran on XWindows and was written in C++. Although he worked for ATT Bell Labs in the past, he didn’t stay ahead of the curve with technology: didn’t learn Java or C#. When he got laid off he just sat back and didn’t try to pick up new skills. He just kept interviewing and getting turned down.
CHenry,
I think I strayed a bit from the point I was trying to make when I brought in all the baggage about competition and elite schools. The important point is that while economic developments might encourage artificial intelligence one day (remember the eighties?) and biotech another there seems to be always a steady demand for physicians and other professionals. One should study physics or AI or biotech for the same reasons one would study any of the liberal arts: the love of knowledge. Not for vocational reasons unless you plan to work toward an academic or similar job (i.e. research).
Both my brother-in-law and niece are physicians as well as several of my former classmates. I’m not unfamiliar with some of the less favorable or glamorous issues. But in cases from aerospace engineers in the 70’s to computer nerds in the current decade we have examples of huge demand changing to relentless downsizing and outsourcing. It may change in the future (or not even be true today) but my impression is that professions are less prone to such boom and bust cycles.
People who claim to make money off of card-counting are usually lying, or deluded. At least, that’s been my experience.
Why should AOL pay $10.50 per hour in America when they can get talented and eager staff for a fraction of that overseas? If American companies don’t shed this welfare mentality, they won’t be able to compete.
Alex,
I agree with you for the most part. All of those casinos aren’t getting built out of charity. I have met one notable exception, a long-time bit fiddler that can gather statistics over a 16 hour period and act on them in appropriate manners. I have also read about a crew calling themselves the ‘MIT Blackjack Team’, read about their exploits here:
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/10.09/vegas.html
The bit fiddler keeps it on the down-low and doesn’t walk into a casino more than twice a year. So far he has not been given the bum’s rush. The blackjack team has not had the same luck, and their pictures are posted in all of the security operations rooms for casinos in north america. Now THAT is success!
We have been fed two lies which we believed . These two lies have , in essence , destroyed (note the irony ) U S .
1 – Democracy is the best form of government
Lie . True Democracy is nothing more than MOB RULE .
Think about it .
2 – CAPITALISM is the best economic systen to ever enter the mind of Man .
LIE # 2 . Capitalism seeks slave wages to maximize profits . CAPITALISM
owes NOTHING to the community . CAPITALISZM encourages slavery .
Russ,
I have to disagree with you, I just don’t know where to begin.
I have thought about it, and I really believe that anarchy would be closer to mob rule than democracy. At least with our democracy we have regular polling periods (some even limit the sale of liquor to keep the mob sober), an electoral college (to save us from ourselves) and convenient requirements for greater than a simple majority for important things like constitutional ammendments and veto overrides.
Sure democracy isn’t perfect, but what would you prefer? Technocracy, Oligarchy, Monarchy, straight up Dictatorship?
As far as capitalsim goes… In its purest form you get people worked to death and their bones rendered for glue which is sold to their children ans food… But that’s not what we have here. We have the combination of capitalism tempered by democracy (and a good deal of socialism). Capitalism has been a great ‘engine’ to drive our society. Every now and then it gets a little overheated requires some good old intervention from the elected representatives…
Sure it’s messy, inelegant, and just plain noisy sometimes.
What _are_ your alternatives?
“True Democracy is nothing more than MOB RULE.”
I’m not sure what “true” democracy is, but I can see how a system where everybody voted directly on laws could in some ways be the same as mob rule. But we don’t have that; we have a representational democracy, for better and for worse.
“Capitalism seeks slave wages to maximize profits. CAPITALISM owes NOTHING to the community. CAPITALISZM encourages slavery.”
Capitalism does get out of hand sometimes, which is what government is for. I wouldn’t want to see capitalism completely off the leash.
I guess I agree with Churchill about democracy. To paraphrase, “Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.” And I think that can be applied to capitalism as well. It’s the worst economic system, except for all the others.
Don’t forget to check Wikipedia for basic overviews. It is important not to get into fights over semantics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mob_rule
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalism
Hmmm. “Capatalism is the worst economic system, except for all the others?”
What color is the sky in your world? While a socialized welfare state may not produce many millionares, it often reduces abject poverty and violent crime to close to 0%. For an example of this, check out this article: http://www.rakemag.com/features/detail.asp?catID=61&itemID=15314
Before I hear from the knee-jerk self-abusers who feel we all have to suffer to achieve innovation, look at the recent U.N reports on the progress of the human condition. The countries that successfully implement social democracies are now also beginning to show a higher rate of innovation than the good ole’ US of A.
The reason? When you don’t have to worry about loss of medical care, housing, and starvation, joining or creating a start-up business is a lot less risky, and more people are tempted to try it. That’s right, the welfare state can be more entrepenurial than our rough and tumble capitalism, if run properly.
Now granted, some will be turned off by tax rates of over 50%. But when the whole society benefits, it’s mostly the sociopaths who really have a problem with sharing the wealth. Would I give away 2/3 of my income in exchange for free education for my kids, full health coverage, 35 hour weeks, and a livable retirement benefit? You bet! That’s a bargain. Think of what you pay in the U.S. for less than this.
Democracy? Since when did the U.S have a real democracy at the national level? Just what is it you are defending? God forbid if we had directly elected leaders in a true multi-party system!
And what flavor did you want your capitalism?
According to wikipedia:
“The Norwegian economy is a prosperous bastion of welfare capitalism, featuring a combination of free market activity and government intervention. ”
So, there’s that capitalism thingy again, maybe not so ‘unfettered’ as in say, malaysia, but still the idea that selling something for more than you paid for it is a “good thing”.
Of course, Norway would be nicer if it was say, in the tropics, with a light evening breeze and maybe a brief rain shower every afternoon, and …
And you know that Norway receives a great amount of government funding from the state-run petroluem industry… It is unlikely that higher taxes alone could support the workers paradise that exists there.
And then there is that whole creepy ‘northern european society’ with your neighbors knowing what you earn for a living and minding whether you jay walk or not… pretty creepy 😉
Would I give up most of my income to live in a well-run society where my kids’ kid’s kids’ would have a guaranteed ‘swell upbringing’, education and relative happiness? Hell yeah! Is there any chance that I could get a majority of the voting representatives to support this ‘great society’ knowing that they would be immediately voted out of office? Hell no!
So, we work with what we’ve got, try and get ready for the ‘next great thing’, then get our un-fair share of cash and head off to an island paradise to get jiggy with the islanders and fade off into the sunset.
“Would I give up most of my income to live in a well-run society where my kids’ kid’s kids’ would have a guaranteed ‘swell upbringing’, education and relative happiness? Hell yeah! Is there any chance that I could get a majority of the voting representatives to support this ‘great society’ knowing that they would be immediately voted out of office? Hell no!”
How can we be so sure of this? It seems to me that FDR managed to get re-elected 3 times on a somewhat less ambitious platform. While he was committing these un-American acts, he was being called a traitor and a dictator by the GOP and much of the influential media. It’s just so damned hard to argue when your opposition provides employment and food.
Do we want to be just like Scandanavia? Probably not, but I find it interesting that the climate for start-ups is so positive. And yes, without north sea oil, much of this would be more difficult. But the point here is that America has lots of valuable natural resources too. The difference is that greed is seen as a virtue rather than a pathology. This is not a view that is generally supported by historical evidence.
Jeff,
I am not entirely certain that America cannot enjoy the benefits that Norway has reaped from its ‘welfare democracy’, let’s just say that I am, um, fairly certain.
As long as the bulk of america sits in economic comfort and bathes in the constant deluge of selfish consumer propaganda I do not see any major change from the status quo of savaging the central government and dismanteling the social welfare safety net through tax cutting programs.
Both Norway and FDR had the ‘benefit’ of extremely hard times in recent memory to coalesce the public into supporting programs that benefitted the common good. Without the first-person experience of living on the edge of existence, I do not believe that the public can show the moral courage to take a few dollars out of their paycheck for the sake of the country at large.
What were once fringe groups that advocated seperating themselve from the union have become poster children for the neo-conservative movement. Until this tide turns back towards a nationalistic need to support each other for the sake of the nation, I do not see any chance of real change.
A system administrator position is open now at my employer, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. See http://cjo.lbl.gov/, position number 017013 for details.
I live in Tampa and know a few people who used to make good money as administrator or programmers who are now working for that AOL Tech support group. The simple fact is many were making more money than they have a right to expect in the long term because of market forces. I know most people’s salaries have dropped in the last four years even where they have kept similar jobs.
There are several factors besides technical skill, education and intelligence that poeple look for in hiring and now that they have choice again they are using it. Some of the people at AOL are there because their technical skills really weren’t that great and there are many more people with better skills than they have. Some have the skills but are are not hired for jobs because of other factors (interpersonal skills is a big example). Some people never learned how to sell their own skills because six or seven years ago they didn’t have to. Recruiters came looking for them.
Let’s face it. 90% of sytsems administration is not hard. It doesn’t require large amounts of creativity or intelligence. You don’t see typical administrators using extensive stastical analysis on a set of data to determine why something isn’t working as well as it could. They are buying a faster computer to run it on. It’s cheaper to buy a $5,000 machine to upgrade your server than it is to pay someone $10,000 to get that last few % of performance out of the system. I could wish it wasn’t so, but that’s the way systems are these days. The hardest part of administration these days seems to be knowing how to get exactly the right information out of Google to find the last person who had the same problem you have right now. Most administration doesn’t require high level degrees in math and computer science. For that matter most software development doesn’t either. I’ve lost track of how many “software engineers” don’t know who Knuth or Dijkstra is and don’t have the ability to get past the first sentence of any of their works. Application development is a matter of being able to connect the interface to the database and get the right data to the right place. This is even true of DBAs. How many DBAs need to be able to calculate the expected run time of a query in order to know if the query written another way would be faster?
So you increase the supply of technical people by creating large demand (.com boom and Y2k), you lower the skill set necessary through more powerful computers, which increases the supply more (more people are capable of fulfilling the job description). You create a temporary situation that creates a culture of people who did relatively little to become highly paid and you pull the rug out from under them. What do you expect to happen?
People need to learn how to compete for jobs again. They need to learn to evolve their skill sets. They need to find ways to gain situational advantages over the competition.
I’ve seen several positions in the Tampa area for systems administrators. Some of the larger Sun shops outside of the .com industry are in this area including Verizon and Neilsons (the Ratings people). Several agencies in this area are looking for people from time to time including Sapphire. The opportunity is out there, your friend has to take it.
a very good article.we are participating in debate in support of capitalism .pls send us the details