Newspapers continue to dwell on the issue of race. Barack Obama, who identifies himself as black, managed to win the nomination of a party that represents approximately half of the American people. Nonetheless, journalists occupy column-inches with the theory that the other half of the American people are prejudiced against blacks.
Let’s try a thought-experiment.
Case 1: We ask an average American “Could a black man handle a demanding job?” My prediction is that the answer would be “It depends; I would have to meet the guy.”
Case 2: We ask an average American “Could a 72-year-old handle a demanding job?” Possible answers would include “72? Can the guy still drive himself? Can he get up and down the halls of his assisted living complex without using a walker? Are you nuts? Wouldn’t he have retired years ago?”
Companies try to avoid hiring anyone over 50. Why do we believe that the number of Americans who are prejudiced against blacks is anywhere near the number who are prejudiced against hiring workers born in 1936?
you are probably right that there are people who won’t vote for McCain because he is old, and maybe some who won’t vote for Obama because he is half black.
However, the question most news papers seems to be talking about isn’t whether the prejudice exists, the question is whether polls reflects these prejudice and will people answering the polls one way and vote differently.
In fact, I would think your thought-experiment actually support the potential of the Bradley effect if it were true. Where people are much more free to express an outright prejudice against age. Where as people tend to be much more PC about race. Creating a situation where polling reflects the prejudice against age accurately but potentially miss the mark about Obama’s due to less honest answers talking to a poll worker.
Furthermore, its an issue beyond simple lying to polling services. Many poll predictions are based on likely voter models. There is the threat of race causing some likely blue collar voters to stay home, as many stories in the news has suggest is happening (although hard to judge the extend of this self imposed voter suppression).
So on multitude of levels, the issue of race can have a potentially significant impact on the polling accuracy.
Case 1: Around here most people would say what does that have to do with the price of beans in China.
Case 2: I am circa 1935 and still do a lot of heavy lifting, drive around Palo Alto threatening the Cell Phone Expedition ladies who try to bluff me out at intersections, ride horses, competitively sail small boats, hike and bike. Do I think a 72 year old can do the presidents job? Yes, if things are calm and he can take frequent naps and has great staff. No, if things blow up and he has to do 24/7 for weeks on end. When things blow up you have to have better than great staff you have to have god like staff. John Mc has not shown, in this campaign, that he can pick great staff. Good luck to who ever wins. Winning this election is like winning a trip to the dentist’s office for 24/7 root canal without pain killers.
Don’t forget that Obama was definitely the taller of the two. That’s an old prejudice and very often the predictor of Presidential elections.