Month: April 2010

I’ve drafted a review of a new book, The Design of Design. Comments/corrections would be appreciated.

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In the past couple of weeks, we’ve put about 70 people through helicopter ground school (outline of topics), followed by a 25-question multiple choice exam. The goals of the ground school include developing a student’s understanding of qualitative physics such as the Bernoulli effect (through conservation of energy), of basic aerodynamics (no equations), and of the practical requirements that lead to the helicopter being constructed the way it is (e.g., Why is there a tail rotor?). The class is conducted as a discussion around a conference table with about one third of the time devoted to students answering questions from the teacher (me so far!). Some reading is assigned prior to the class, but mostly the oral questions can be answered based on material presented in the class and with commonsense physics reasoning.

In looking over the 70 exam scores, what has surprised me the most is the lack of predictive value of a bachelor’s degree in science or engineering from an American university. One customer showed up wearing a Boston University Engineering sweatshirt, confirmed that a bachelor’s degree in engineering ($150,000?) had been obtained two years ago, and proceeded to score 6/25 correct on the exam (the all-time low score and worse than picking answers at random).

People who’ve done the best in the class and on the exam:

• certificated airplane pilots
• foreigners with science or engineering degrees from universities in India, Germany, and Israel
• Americans with advanced degrees in science or engineering

Some Americans who held bachelor’s degrees in science/tech did reasonably well, but no better than those who’d majored in Art.

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It’s official: East Coast Aero Club is looking to hire at least one helicopter CFI.

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Art: In Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay, Kumar lights up in airplane bathroom and is handcuffed by federal air marshals. Harold and Kumar are deported to a foreign country (Cuba).

Life: Qatari diplomat lights up in airplane bathroom and is handcuffed by federal air marshals (full story). The young diplomat is deported to a foreign country (Qatar).

I did a quick search on Google News, but could not find any journalist who noticed the parallel.

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I’m hoping that video experts among the readers will be willing to share their knowledge. I want a consumer-priced and compact HD camcorder that has a built-in wireless microphone system.

I have a Flip HD, which I love for its ease of use. This is my first camcorder that makes native digital files and I find myself much more willing to use it than a tape-based camcorder that requires a conversion operation. I like to make 1-minute videos and simply do-over rather than try to edit. My complaint with the Flip is that, in common with all other camcorders using on-camera microphones, it captures room sound rather than the voice of the subject.

I have an HDV tape-based Sony HDR FX-1, which yields excellent video quality from three CCDs. Unfortunately it is bulky and requires an additional set of boxes, each with its own 9V battery, to capture video from lav mics on the subjects. So now I am charging multiple batteries for the camcorder and perhaps lights as well as keeping a stock of 9V batteries for the mic system. Then when I get home I need to read from the tape onto a hard drive and divide up into clips using desktop video editing software. The effort required here is simply too great.

I have a Canon EOS 5D Mk II, which has near-Hollywood video quality, but the interface is not designed for camcording (is that a word?). I don’t know of any practical way to focus while rolling. Off-camera microphone use would require the same bulky additions as the Sony HDR FX-1.

So… how about a camcorder that has a built-in receiver for some kind of wireless microphone? I think Sony comes pretty close to this with a Bluetooth-based system (pictures). The receiver slides into a powered shoe on the camera. Still at least one too many boxes (the receiver is almost as big as the camcorder!), but the only extra battery is with the microphone itself.

I’m surprised that this isn’t a more active area of competition for camcorder manufacturers. The creeping featurism between the $500 and $1500 models does not seem nearly as useful as higher quality sound. What am I missing? Are more skilled videographers able to do great things with the standard on-camera microphones? Is there some company besides Sony that has put the receiver into the camcorder itself? (I checked Canon and Panasonic and they did not seem to have any kind of wireless mic systems for their consumer products.)

Incidentals: I would prefer not to pay more than $1500 for the system and I don’t want it to be any larger than a Canon Rebel.

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Here’s a report from some Stanford graduate students estimating that the California pension systems are underfunded by approximately $500 billion or approximately $36,000 for every California household (i.e., taxes on Californians are likely to increase by $36,000 per household at some point in the next decade). The report covers only three of California’s pension systems, so the total overhang will presumably be larger. This report makes one realize the impossibility of being a municipal bond investor. You can’t rely on the ratings agencies, whose corruption and incompetence were exposed in the Collapse of 2008 (every bond was rated AAA until it became worthless and then Moody’s or S&P decided to downgrade it). You can’t rely on public budget numbers because pension obligations are obscure and may be hidden in union contract fine print. So why buy these assets? If you want a bond in dollars, buy a Treasury (the federal government can and will print money to pay you). If you want to get higher yield along with diversification, buy the sovereign debt of some other country, preferably in that country’s currency (since that is the only way to mitigate the risk of a U.S. dollar collapse, as predicted by John Paulson, the most successful investor of the last decade).

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I just finished listening to Traffic: Why We Drive the Way We Do, appropriately enough, while driving around Boston. The book is probably better read/skimmed than listened to, and/or needs abridgment. There are some worthwhile nuggets of information, however, and I’ve selected a few below.

SUVs are hugely costly to society. Because they are long and sluggish, they spend much more time getting rolling from a stop at a red light. This is one reason that our city traffic has slowed down. SUV drivers sit higher from the optical rush of the road so they are more likely to speed (just as you wouldn’t have a strong sensation of speed in an airplane 1000′ above the ground, though the airplane is moving at 4X the speed of a car). SUV drivers in at least two countries studied are less likely to wear seatbelts, more likely to be talking on a mobile phone, and less likely to have both hands on the wheel. They crash constantly and are statistically less safe than a minivan that is lighter weight.

Low-cost parking meters in cities are a primary cause of traffic jams and accidents. About 12 percent of cars driving around a city are looking for a parking spot. Those folks drive very slowly. When they stop, they tend to get hit by other cars, and traffic comes to a standstill until the accident is cleared. As soon as parking spots are more than 80 percent occupied, city traffic slows down to a crawl. (If we had a nationwide wireless Internet and perhaps an RFID transponder in cars, the solution would presumably be dynamic pricing for parking spaces so that there were always about 20 percent free.)

Intersections with lights are hugely dangerous and have very little capacity compared to roundabouts. The heavyweight control systems and signs don’t ensure driver or pedestrian safety. The intersection is useless during a clearing phase that has to be lengthened every year (now it is about 2 seconds of red in all directions). The intersection is very slow to start up again after a red (see the note about ponderous SUVs above).

Signs are basically useless, especially as they have been layered onto our roads year after year. People drive slower around curves with no “curve warning 30 mph” sign than they do with the sign. Deer crossing signs do nothing to reduce the prevalence of deer-car collisions.

High curbs and crosswalks do not protect pedestrians. In fact, in Dutch cities where all signs, curbs, and markings have been removed, accidents and injuries have gone down. Traffic engineers have spent decades applying techniques that work on highways to city streets and continue doing so though all research shows it doesn’t work. All of the road engineering discourages drivers from paying attention to what is happening around them. [Similar results were found in London.]

Skill does not make for a safer driver; an insurance company study of NASCAR-style racing drivers found that these supremely skilled individuals were more likely to get into accidents when driving on public streets than the average driver.

Contrary to advertisements touting the miracles of airbags, new cars are no safer than old cars, according to studies in Norway and the U.S. Adjusted for miles driven, people in new cars are more likely to be in an accident and more likely to be injured than people in old cars. Quite a few people are killed in new cars while traveling at less than 35 mph. What would reduce deaths and the cost of injuries would be if everyone wore helmets, though this has never been seriously proposed.

I recommend the book in print because each section stands on its own nicely and the reader can pick and choose the most interesting topics.

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During a discussion today about potential iPad sales, a friend and I got distracted by reflecting on the tremendous value delivered by a vanilla PC. Over on the Dell Web site right now, a basic 15″ laptop costs $499 and includes 320 GB of hard drive and 3 GB of RAM. So for the same price as an iPad, you’ve got a machine that can do the following:

• give each family member his or her own private and personalized set of files, programs, and bookmarks
• support the creation of almost any kind of document, plan, or project
• run nearly all of the world’s software development tools
• function as a videophone
• function as a television, DVD player (and burner), radio, and videogame
• be used almost anywhere in the world (multi-voltage power supply and standard 802.11 wireless adapter)

The machine exacts a price in terms of learning and administration, but it does a lot for $499!

So… can Apple sell a huge number of machines at the same price that do a lot less? Sure, at least to those who have an extra $499 for an indulgence.

Let’s look at Apple’s track record:

• Macintosh: substantially more expensive than competition, 2-5 percent market share
• iPod: comparable price/megabyte to competition, 55-70 percent market share
• iPhone: slightly higher price than other smart phones, 16 percent market share of smartphones (source), negligible market share of all mobile phones

There have been enough spendthrifts worldwide to keep Steve Jobs in Gulfstreams, even when an Apple product carries a premium price, but Apple has only touched the mass market with products that are close in price to competitors’ products.

The best predictor of iPad world dominance may therefore be how much it costs to buy a similar tablet from a competitor. I.e., if the competition costs about the same (see “Zune”), Apple could end up with most of the market.

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One of the highlights of my trip to Phoenix was a visit to Taliesin West, Frank Lloyd Wright’s summer camp for teaching and working. I learned that parents may be able to influence a child after all, contradicting The Nurture Assumption to some extent. Frank Lloyd Wright’s mother home-schooled him and filled his childhood with architectural drawings and models. Her plan for him to become an architect worked out spectacularly well.

Frank Lloyd Wright provides an inspiration to older folks. He established Taliesin West at the age of 70. He did approximately 30 percent of his work between the age of 70 and his death at age 92. He worked until five days before his death.

Related: 2008 posting about Fallingwater.

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After my initial one-year deal with Verizon FiOS ran out, they sent me shocking near-$200 monthly bills, so I downgraded my service to the bare minimum last fall. I had Internet plus a lifeline phone. Then they started filling my mailbox with an offer to go back to the glorious world of Verizon unlimited phone, Internet, plus some TV for a $65/month teaser rate, escalating to $95/month for a total two-year period. I finally took the bait and upgraded my service via the Web site that they provided.

Five minutes later, my Internet stopped working. I called FiOS tech support. “You placed an order for new service, so of course we had to shut off your old service,” they helpfully explained. When would the Internet that I was already paying for be restored? “You’re scheduled for an install on April 9th.” So the upgrade process has a designed-in two-day service outage? “No. Sometimes people are cut off for a week or more.”

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