Godiva Chocolate: Lying to Americans more than to Europeans?

Godiva’s European web site admits that they leave the industrial process of turning cocoa beans into couverture to professionals at an unnamed giant corporation:

The enrobing chocolate, dark, milk or white is specially prepared for Godiva following their own recipe. Everything is decided by Godiva: the choice of cocoa beans, the degree of roasting, the fineness of grinding, the purity and the homogeneity of the chocolate paste, which is refined by conching…

Maybe the Turkish owner of Godiva does this?

Certainly Godiva is not on the Wikipedia list of bean-to-bar companies.

The U.S. site, however, implies that Godiva makes its own chocolate:

Our cocoa beans are sourced directly from the cocoa farmers, who have a commitment to cultivating the highest quality cocoa beans. .. GODIVA takes care to grind the nibs into extremely fine particle

Could it be that Godiva has a secret bean-to-block factory in the U.S. that supplies its U.S. bonbon factory? Or do they simply think that Americans can’t understand the fine points?

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CES 2016: Did TV technology stagnate?

“Despite the CES Hype, It’s Better to Wait on That 4K TV” is a nytimes.com story by a journalist who was underwhelmed at CES (the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas).

Personally I would be interested in a TV operating system that had reasonably good digital picture frame capabilities. I wrote about this in 2010 (Why don’t people use a small TV as a digital picture frame?) and in 2012 (Best LCD television for use as a digital photo display?), but I don’t know of any 2016 model that meets the basic requirements, i.e., can turn itself on automatically at 8 am, go into photo display mode, and, ideally, pull images from a local or cloud-based server (Google Photos for example).

What do readers think? Any exciting TV (or other) news from CES?

[Personally I’m kind of interested in the Thinkpad Yoga with an OLED screen. I’m not sure how this would be better than a Microsoft Surface Book, though. Lenovo’s prices seem a lot better. It is $1400 for an LCD-screen Yoga with 16 GB of RAM and a 512GB SSD. That’s a $2700 configuration from Microsoft. Screen size and resolution is about the same. The software is the same Windows 10, right? The Surface Book has a fancier graphics card but I’m not a gamer.]

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Do all German women now qualify for refugee status in the U.S.?

“Reports of Attacks on Women in Germany Heighten Tension Over Migrants” (NYT, January 5, 2016) describes how women in Germany are subject to attacks based on their sex. Would any German woman therefore now qualify for asylum in the U.S. under the “credible fear” standard that our government puts forth?

If so, would a German woman want to emigrate to the U.S.?

Germany has a higher labor force participation rate (source), an indication either that work is better in Germany or there are fewer ways to collect money without working. Digging further into the data, it looks as though “prime working age women” are substantially more likely to have jobs in Germany than in the U.S. This may be due to the fact that, as one high-income German put it, “it is a lot easier to work your pussy in the U.S. than in Germany.” According to the German lawyer whom we interviewed the international chapter of Real World Divorce, alimony has been difficult to obtain in Germany since 2009. With child support revenue in Germany capped at $6,000 per child per year, having sex with a dermatologist or two does not lead to the spending power of a dermatologist, as it would in Massachusetts or Wisconsin. [Note that, according to a jet-owner at NBAA, some German women already move to the U.S. in order to secure the jurisdiction of a U.S. family court and then collect child support at U.S. rates.]

Germany has a lower GDP-per-capita than the U.S. (CIA), suggesting that a German immigrant could live with more material prosperity here. German-Americans earn more than the U.S. average (Wikipedia), further enhancing the material advantages to a move.

The German K-12 system leads to a superior education (PISA scores) compared to the U.S., which should put a German immigrant, despite the language handicap, at a further advantage to native-born Americans in the workforce.

How about open space? Even before the latest crush of migrants, Germany had a population density of 591 per square mile (Wikipedia), compared to 85 in the U.S.

OECD publishes a “better life index” for Germany and the U.S. with comparisons on some additional axes.

Readers: What do you think? Can a German woman show the Times article and perhaps some YouTube footage to a U.S. official and get asylum? If so, should she take it?

[The OECD page shows that median after-tax household income in Germany is $31,252 per year. That’s $601 per week. The Massachusetts child support guidelines worksheet shows that, without working at all, a female refugee who had sex with any man earning more than $3,315 per week, or $172,380 per year, would have a higher spending power than if she had remained in Germany and worked for wages as part of a median-income household.]

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100-megapixel Phase One/Sony camera

Here’s something to add to your Amazon wishlist: the Phase One XF camera. The sensor is big enough to use as a toddler’s breakfast plate. The pixels come out of the magical Sony factory that has been stomping all over Canon for the last five years in the dynamic range department. The lenses come from the world’s best lens company: Schneider Kreuznach (and, 30 years after the Minolta Maxxum, the company seems to have discovered the existence of autofocus).

I’m a little at a loss to figure out what one would do with this camera. Unless the goal is full-body teledermatology why does one need 100 megapixels of resolution in a single exposure of a human? If the subject is landscape, in theory one could get the same results using six exposures by a Nikon D810, Sony a7R II, or whatever and then stitching. Perhaps aerial photography will be the killer application? It is tough to park a helicopter in mid-air long enough and steadily enough to get images suitable for stitching. On the other hand, most of the customers for our aerial photography business are real estate developers. They need something that can be shown to a planning board, not something that can hang on a museum wall.

What do readers think? Has camera quality finally outstripped the aesthetic appeal of most parts of the world? Will Phase One XF owners come back from a project agreeing with François Boucher that the real world is “too green and badly lit”?

And what else is interesting to readers in the 2016 photo world? DxOMark finally released its review of the iPhone 6s Plus. The camera measures very slightly better than the 6 Plus camera and slightly worse than cameras with bigger sensors that are in some Android phones, e.g., the Sony Z5 and the latest Samsungs. I’m still waiting for a thick phone with a dramatically larger sensor and correspondingly bigger lens.

Leica continues to impress consumers with its brand name and logo while underperforming laughably in objective tests (DxOMark on the Leica Q).

Has anyone tried the DxO One camera? I love the company but hate the idea of having to walk out the door wondering about the battery charge state in two different required devices.

What do we think Canon will do in 2016? Now that Sony has bought up the only competitor capable of making high-dynamic range sensors (story on Toshiba sensor division acquisition), does Canon invest in a better semiconductor process? Throw in the towel and buy from Sony the way that Nikon does? Step up its advertising so that consumers will buy Canon cameras with inferior dynamic range and not care?

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How do you integrate migrants from traditional societies into the U.S.?

Here are some excerpts from a December 14, 2015 New Yorker story about a hit TV show about a transgender senior citizen:

Sometimes, though, Soloway sounds not entirely unlike that women’s-studies professor she played. “A patriarchal society can’t really handle that there’s such a thing as a vagina,” she said. “The untrustworthy vagina that is discerning-receiving.” Soloway, who recently turned fifty, was wearing leggings and blue nail polish and a baseball cap that said “Mister.” She sped past a stretch of Craftsmen bungalows, whose front yards were studded with bicycles, jade plants, and toys. “So you can want sex, you can want to be entered, and then a minute later you can say, ‘Stop—changed my mind,’ ” she continued. “That is something that our society refuses to allow for. You don’t feel like it now? You’re shit out of luck. You know why? Because you have a pussy! To me, that is what’s underneath all this gender trouble: most of our laws are being formed by people with penises.”

The eldest sibling, Sarah, leaves her husband to pursue an affair with her college girlfriend, after they reunite at the school that their children attend.

Every decision on the show is vetted by Rhys Ernst and Zackary Drucker, trans activists and artists whose work about their relationship appeared in the most recent Whitney Biennial. “We monitor the politics of representation—if we catch things in the writing stage, it’s kind of optimal because then there’s time to shape it,” Drucker told me. “We’re kind of starting over with ‘Transparent,’ and with the trans tipping point in general.”

But, if trans people are scapegoats for the right, they are also requiring the left to undertake a momentous shift in thinking. “We’re asking the whole world to transition with us to a less binary way of being,” Drucker said. “It’s the next step in the fight for gender equality: removing the habit of always qualifying a person as a man or a woman. If we start thinking of each other as just people, it allows us to identify with each other in a way that has never really been possible before.”

“A really interesting thought exercise is to say ‘they’ and ‘them’ for all genders,” Soloway instructed me. I was confused, so she explained. “If you said, ‘I have to go pick up my friend at the airport,’ I could very easily say, ‘What time do they get here?’ So there is a structure for talking about your friend and not knowing their gender—and it’s perfect English.”

in the second season, Ali Pfefferman would go to graduate school for gender studies, and that she would have an affair with a magnetic and much older female professor.

Soloway and her husband were in an amorphous process of separating, which is ongoing. [Read the California chapter of Real World Divorce to find out how, even if there is a near-term settlement, litigation regarding alimony could continue until one of them dies.]

Will migrants from traditional cultures, and the children of those migrants, such as Soloway’s fellow Californians Syed Farook and Tashfeen Malik, agree with some of the above ideas that are valorized by this popular show?

I decided to test the question by asking adult grandchildren of Middle Eastern immigrants. They are Muslim and nobody in the family drinks alcohol, but their female family members do not wear hijabs. The children had grown up in rich liberal suburban neighborhoods and attended public schools. A native-born American casually talking to these folks would hear no accent and nothing about religion. What was the verdict on Transparent and the above ideas?

  • Transgender: “I don’t have a problem with people getting surgery or wearing whatever clothes they want, but why do I have to hear about it? I never cared one way or the other before.”
  • Lesbian love: “It’s okay to be gay if you are private about it. Breaking up your children’s home so that you can enjoy sex with someone other than your husband is not okay. Telling other people all the time that you are gay is not okay. Telling children that you are gay is not okay. I don’t want children exposed to a gay schoolteacher.”
  • Soloway herself divorcing: “People who don’t value family should not be imposing their belief system on others via the media. If I had children I wouldn’t let them watch television.” Won’t they hear about all of the shows from their friends at school? “I would look for a private Muslim school so that they aren’t exposed to these ideas when they’re not ready for them.”
  • Women as victims of a patriarchal society and gender studies as a major: “They major in gender studies and then complain that they don’t get paid as much as a doctor? Nobody in our family would be allowed to major in gender studies.”

If we assume that the above excerpts accurately reflect the cultural direction of native-born Americans, and that the above reactions accurately reflect the farthest that a immigrant’s child can go in the direction of assimilation, how can we expect immigrants from traditional cultures, or any children that they have while here, to adapt (at least within our lifetimes)? And, given that acceptance of values that are in conflict with traditional culture or religion may not be considered a virtue by some immigrants, why would we expect them to adapt?

[Separately, I decided to extend my co-authors’ survey results regarding Massachusetts family law (see about halfway down this intro chapter). These smart young people were familiar with non-working divorcées living in $1+ million houses, driving luxury cars, etc. However, they were unaware that having sex with three high-income professionals could yield the same income as studying for and joining that profession. They wrongly believed that child support revenue following a one-night sexual encounter was somehow limited and generally less lucrative than child support cashflow following a marriage. They wrongly believed that it was illegal and therefore impractical to sell an abortion for cash. Although the children of divorce with whom they were familiar had no more than every-other-weekend contact with their fathers, they wrongly believed that Massachusetts law favored a 50/50 shared parenting arrangement. They wrongly believed that Massachusetts law makes a divorce lawsuit more profitable in the event of fault, e.g., if a defendant were having an affair.]

Related:

  • “Reports of Attacks on Women in Germany Heighten Tension Over Migrants” (New York Times, 1/5/2016): “The descriptions of the assailants — by the police and victims quoted in the news media — as being young foreign men who spoke neither German nor English immediately stoked the debate over how to integrate such large numbers of migrants and focused new attention on how to deal with the influx of young, mostly Muslim men from more socially conservative cultures where women do not share the same freedoms and protections as men.”
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Who has a steam-assist oven?

The saga of oven repair that nearly exploded the house continues. Whirlpool doesn’t have the parts to fix the 36″-wide dual-fuel range. It is still under warranty so they have offered to give us a credit against one of their new 36″ dual-fuel ranges. These are crazy expensive (will be “stupid expensive” instead of “crazy expensive” after our credit). Here’s one example: a Kitchenaid KDRU767VSS. There is a slightly cheaper model that doesn’t have the “steam-assist” oven. That raises the question… do we want or need a “steam-assist” oven?

Readers: Does anyone have experience to report using one of these high-end Kitchenaid 36″-wide ranges? Experience with a steam-assist oven of any type?

Separately, I would like to take a moment to thank the architect who designed this kitchen for the previous owner of the house (and architects everywhere). Without his initiative in picking a 36″ range width, instead of the standard 30″, Whirlpool would be giving us a free replacement instead of charging us thousands of dollars for an oven that contains enough steel to build a minivan.

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Investment Ideas for 2016 from Burton Malkiel

Burton Malkiel, who inspired the index fund revolution (e.g., Vanguard) and wrote A Random Walk Down Wall Street, offers some 2016 investment advice in a WSJ editorial:

Perhaps the most useful metric to assess valuations is the cyclically adjusted price-earnings multiple (CAPE). This is the ratio of today’s market price to a measure of average earnings over recent economic cycles. CAPEs for broad stock-market indexes do not help in predicting returns one year ahead. But they do have a reasonably high correlation with average returns over, for example, the next five to 10 years.

Today the CAPE stands at over 26 for the U.S. market, well above its long-run average. The CAPE is 20 for Japan, 15 for Europe and under 10 for emerging markets—below their long-run averages. I am not suggesting that you try to time the markets and shift from one to another based on these metrics. But I do suggest that if your equity portfolio is composed entirely of U.S. stocks, you might add some foreign stocks in 2016.

I.e., if you already own U.S. stocks, buy foreign stocks with any new money to invest!

Readers: What are your investment strategies for the coming year?

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Best small business accounting software? Good bank? Bookkeeping/invoice service?

Roughly every year it is time for me to ask readers what kind of accounting software they like. I’m advising a small LLC. Here are the characteristics:

  • one to three W-2 employees at any one time, paid via a payroll service (sadly this still ends up generating a huge amount of administrative hassle, including threatening notices from various government agencies)
  • about 15 customers, none of whom pay by credit card and many of whom have to be invoiced and, if they don’t pay, reminded (figure up to three hardcopy checks deposited per month)
  • revenue of perhaps $500,000 per year; profits perhaps of $50,000 per year
  • about 30 vendors, most of whom can be paid by credit or debit card

I’ve used QuickBooks Online for an LLC that I used to run. The main hassle was typically re-connecting with the online banking service of the small bank that the LLC used. Hold times for help could be epic, e.g., 30 minutes, but once connected the people seemed to know what they were doing. I can’t figure out how to use 99% of the system and it is fairly costly considering that it is maintaining a handful of database tables. Is there anything better out there? (An advantage of QuickBooks Online is that the accountant could also log in and pull down what he needed for doing taxes, fix any chart of accounts problems, enter capital equipment for depreciation, etc.)

This LLC has the flexibility right now to select a new bank for its checking account. Are there any that people especially like? Other than Bank of America, are some better for debit card fraud protection? Are there any where customers can send physical checks directly to the bank? (“lockbox” service, but not with the crazy fees that the big banks have for this and for only a handful of payments per month; it is really about making sure that important checks don’t get lost or buried)

What about an online accounting and/or bookkeeping service? Are there any that will do all of the invoicing and following up? Categorizing the comparative handful of expenses for this company (“bookkeeping” per se) doesn’t seem like a huge task once software such as Quickbooks Online is in place.

Thanks in advance for any help.

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