In 2010 I wrote about the Icon A5, a seaplane that would go into production in 2011 and therefore start delivering a return to its investors in 2011. The airplane was quasi-certified in 2015, but now it seems that the payback for all of that design engineering investment won’t begin until 2017 at the earliest because that’s when production will start. Flying Magazine says that they are looking to raise more money…
The company was founded/funded in 2006 (Wikipedia), so that’s a minimum of 11 years from first funding to first profits.
Amber Heard got there in about one year, with a boost from a domestic violence allegation. Google got there in about four years (Wikipedia says it was a research project in 1996 and then started selling ads in 2000). Icon is on a timeline similar to that of Diavik, “surveyed in 1992 … with production [of diamonds] commencing in January 2003,” but without the diamonds…
That’s nothing compared to Delta Hawk engines, who have been soaking up investment funds for development of a 4-cyl diesel aircraft engine since 1996.
In 2007, they were soliciting $5000 deposits from experimental aircraft builders for units to be delivered in 2008. As far as I can gather, they have yet to deliver a single engine to a customer. (Van’s RV builders discussion forum, Mar 2007: http://www.matronics.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=24719&sid=8664fc11bd51c2679d68279186e99ef8)
Over the last decade they’ve been claiming to be close to certification of a Cirrus SR-20 STC, a milestone that is always 1-2 years out.
A Delta Hawk SBIR dated 1997 states that “Future development, phased over the next 2 years, includes an offset drive V-4, standard and offset-drive 400 hp V-8 models and potentially V-4 100 hp models (all designed for the general aviation market)” (Source: http://sbir.nasa.gov/content/deltahawk-inc)
The current About page on deltahawkengines.com states that “V8 engine development will follow the V4 program and we expect completion in late 2016 or early 2017.” (Source: http://deltahawkengines.com/content/updates-eaa-airventure-2015)
Would you invest in any portion of the aviation industry where the government is not the primary money-making customer?
Michael: I would not personally invest in any to-be-certified stuff. Even when the government is going to use it the paperwork delays can be epic, e.g., http://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2016/05/25/federal-government-do-what-we-say-not-what-we-do/