The bad news is that I have failed as a prophet: “My election prediction: 55/45 popular vote split between Hillary and Trump“. The good news is that through the comments section and email we may have found true prophets.
The actual popular vote ratio between the candidates seems to have been almost exactly 50/50 (latimes). In the comments section of the above-cited posting it looks as though “joecanuck” (presumably one of the folks who is going to be running a Canadian welcome center for my fleeing Facebook friends) called it reasonably well with “49-48-3: Trump-Clinton-Johnson”. Also Reha Gur with “49:48 Hillary:Trump – People who support Trump are keeping their heads low. They really don’t want people to know who they are voting for.”
[I did a little better with the markets: “I think the market will go up about 2-3 percent after the election, whoever wins, due to the removal of uncertainty.” We’ll have to check at the end of the week, but right now the S&P is up slightly.]
Via private email and personal conversations, the true prophets included a retired bond fund manager, a Goldman, Sachs VP, and the 12-year-old son of a conservative friend. Their reasoning was the same as Reha Gur’s: people would be more likely to vote for Trump in the privacy of a secret ballot process than they would be to express support for Trump in response to a pollster (what if someone were to overhear?):
I give Trump 52/48 based on my theory that you have at least a 5% handicap due to people not wanting to acknowledge that they are voting for Trump. We saw this play out in the Brexit vote and with the recent Republican primary.
I think trump will do slightly better than the polls show because [my 12-year-old son] said that people would be embarrassed to tell a stranger they are voting for trump.
One thing that I found interesting at a Boston-area election night party and on Facebook was the idea that if the election had been won by Hillary 49/48 then everything would have been great in the U.S. going forward, but if Hillary lost 48/49 then the country needed to split into two parts, one ruled by Hillary and one by the Trumpenfuhrer.
Having been spectacularly wrong on the popular vote numbers, here’s my analysis of why Hillary lost:
- the inherently corrupt structure of being in elected office and having a personal/family foundation to which government suppliants can donate
- attacking Donald Trump regarding sexual and personal behavior rather than concentrating on issues and competence to govern
- saying that anyone who disagrees with Hillary and Obama is stupid, sexist, and racist
Democrats celebrated the fact that nobody could seemingly prosecute and imprison Hillary for the Clinton Foundation under the “beyond a reasonable doubt” standard. Yet a structure that is immune from prosecution may still be perceived as corrupt. Here’s one of the few on-record Trump supporters I could find in Massachusetts, a self-employed woman: “If you made over a billion dollars then you must have been selling something. Since Hillary’s only job has been politician, what she was selling was us.” (the Washington Post says that the real number is over $2 billion) Hillary supporters, including at the election night party, concentrated on the fact that the Clinton Foundation per se was found to comply with the various rules that apply to foundations. They simply could not anything questionable about a structure in which a politician can say “donate money here that my daughter will be able to spend on Gulfstream charter 20 years from now”. (Note that if someone had paid Hillary directly to do a favor and she wanted to pass that money down to Chelsea, it would be taxed at a rate of 90 percent; if the money goes into the foundation it is tax-free on receipt, tax-free when invested, and tax-free when controlled is passed to Chelsea. The reduction of the tax rate from 90 percent to 0 is counterbalanced by the fact that Chelsea will have some restrictions on how she can spend the money, e.g., she can organize a big party in Paris but she can’t buy clothes for herself.)
Republicans attacked Hillary for being corrupt (the $100+ million in her pocket and the $2+ billion to the foundation) and incompetent (trillions of tax dollars spent either by her or President Obama to little effect). Plainly Hillary supporters would disagree regarding the merits of these attacks but at least they were in the category of job-related items. Democrat attacks on Trump were basically the same as a typical American custody and child support plaintiff’s attacks on a rich defendant: he sexually assaulted women, he raped children, he wasn’t the kind of person that an impressionable person should be around. These allegations in family court play out in front of a sympathetic audience, i.e., a judge who has chosen to take a job where the daily task is taking money away from a person who works and give it to a person who doesn’t work (or who earns less). (See Real World Divorce for how well this can work.) The family court judge is predisposed to rule in favor of the lower-income plaintiff and may just be looking for some convenient justifications. But the American voter is a neutral audience that can ask simple questions such as “If Donald Trump wanted to have sex with teenagers, instead of exposing his multi-billion-dollar fortune to civil lawsuit plaintiffs, why wouldn’t he fly his personal Boeing 757 to a country where that was legal?” This focus on Trump’s sexual and personal behavior was apparently hugely satisfying to my Facebook friends and Hillary supporters in general but an intelligent listener might respond “If all that they have against Trump is the 22-year-old rape allegation that can’t even be proven under the 51-percent civil lawsuit standard then he probably isn’t that bad.”
A recurring theme in my Facebook feed (see “Haiku contest: Summarize your Facebook feed” and “Facebook makes Americans hate each other?” and “My Facebook Feed on Election Day“) is that anyone who disagrees with Obama or Hillary is stupid, sexist, and racist. This tends to shorten arguments but if anything it reinforces Trump supporters’ position that the Democrats are self-serving elitists. I tried to convince at least 100 Democrats, both on Facebook and face-to-face here in Massachusetts, that it was possible that a person could support Trump due to having a different economic situation from theirs, rather than stupidity, sexism, and racism. That, for example, a Walmart cashier whose job could be taken by an immigrant could legitimately have a different view on immigration policy from them. I can’t remember ever being successful. The answer was always the same: stupidity, sexism, racism. This makes Democrats feel good, certainly. They are the smart and tolerant ones. But it is tough to win votes from people if you dismiss their concerns as being motivated by stupidity, sexism, and racism (or sometimes as stemming from failure and bitterness).
[The “Trump gets sued all the time” meme was popular but also not convincing. One of my friends linked to an article where it turned out that the Trump Organization (not Trump personally) had been sued more than 500 times by the U.S. slip-and-fall personal injury industry. That might be a good reason not to do business in the U.S. (civil law jurisdictions such as Germany eliminate this kind of liability), but it is hardly relevant to Trump the candidate.]
How did suburban Bostonians take the news? The election-night party, in a town where 18 percent of the voters ultimately chose hatred, consisted of all Hillary-supporters with the exception of two pilots, only one of whom revealed (at 2:00 am) her secret attachment to libertarianism. Median income was probably roughly $150,000 per year from a range of jobs including user interface designer, CFO of a public company, music teacher, charter school teacher, public school teacher, successful divorce plaintiff, young lover of successful divorce plaintiff (fortunately I had not made the mistake of bringing this wine to the party), professional pilot, landscape designer-contractor, digital animator, etc. They were familiar with and comfortable with the U.S. welfare state. A young woman said “All that you have to do is pop out a baby. My friend in San Francisco lives in a $5,000/month apartment with her fiance and pays $300/month.” To this another woman responded with a story about, thanks to having obtained custody of a 12-year-old boy “who takes care of himself,” a welfare parent living comfortably without working in Steamboat Springs, Colorado. The face-to-face disagreements at the party were much more civil than Facebook “discussions.” The enthusiastic charter school teacher could talk about his experience as a unionized public school teacher (“no incentive to work” and “most kids didn’t learn that much”) without being shouted down by opponents of the charter school ballot question. All party guests expressed shock regarding the unfolding ascendancy of the Trumpenfuhrer, but the musicians seemed to take the news best. When Trump’s acceptance speech came on around 3:00 am Eastern time, the remaining guests had little reaction. (For me it was only the second time I had seen Donald Trump on television, the first being during the first debate, and I didn’t find anything to fault.)
What was the semi-public reaction of my friends on Facebook?
sequence from an Ivy-educated Berkeley resident: OMG, I can’t watch. What is WRONG with people?! … My son is still glued to the live election coverage. He thinks there’s still a chance HRC could pull it off. How do you tell your kid there’s no hope? … This is a day of mourning. Even those who think they won last night (which, remember, is LESS than half of American voters) are going to discover soon that their lives will become worse, not better. Yes, even the 1%, whose riches will be eroded by the global recession that has already started. … I couldn’t sleep last night for thinking about all the ways in which things are going to get worse: Climate change will accelerate; The worldwide recession will destroy jobs and lives; Racism, homophobia, antisemitism, misogyny–all the prejudices against which we’ve made inroads in the last few decades will resurge; Women’s rights will be rolled back, including the right to choose and the right not to be groped.
old (male) California computer programmer: I need to go pick up my daughter. How can I tell her the guy who brags about sexual assault appears to be winning?
old (male) Boston-area computer programmer: I thought the electoral college was my friend. I feel so betrayed. … I’m happy the market is up but WHY?
Female California burner: We will need to find our courage, maintain our voice, protect those more vulnerable and bring the light…Bright.
Woman in LA: I have started hoping for an intruder to club me over the head with a frying pan.
New England business manager: I woke up this morning so dismayed and troubled that I didn’t want to get out of bed. I feel betrayed by my country. I had always assumed that I could rely on “never here” – that the American people at the end of the day would do what’s right. As with any betrayal I can never trust like that again. … Last night hate trumped love. We may have lost the battle, but we can still win the war.
Boston-area veterinarian: Evil and hatred trumps hope and love.
Successful photographer and publisher in Manhattan: There are no words to describe how this feels other than total despair – I don’t even know where to begin – or try to make sense of this to the kids – Supreme Court, Obamacare, racism, misogyny, the wall, LGBT rights, migrants, world despots like Putin challenging taunting playing him, the environment, clean energy, science, FACTS,
Full post, including comments