Tyler Cowen says that Americans are increasingly immobile and unwilling to get off the sofa to do anything more challenging than hold up their phones to watch a movie. The FAA seems to agree. The bureaucracy’s forecast for individual flying is that it will die off at roughly the same rate as the population of currently certificated pilots: 0.8 percent annually. There will be some growth in business jet travel to compensate for this, but it might take until 2037 to exceed the number of “general aviation” (everything but airlines) hours flown in 2007. This against a backdrop of population growth from about 300 million Americans in 2007 to roughly 380 million in 2037 (Census projections).
10 thoughts on “The FAA agrees with Tyler Cowen”
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I think it’s worth considering how approachable GA flying is, as well. I feel like changes in the economy have lead to a smaller and smaller population of people who can commit the time and money to getting licensed and staying current.
Personally, *everyone* I’ve known under 40 who flies does so professionally in some capacity, and I think that is mainly due to the small overlap in populations between those who are sufficiently interested and those who can afford to do so. The only way those who want to learn can justify it is if it’s job training, or at least subsidized by paying work.
Talking with older family members who flew, the cost of flying clubs and other less expensive options for getting hours when they learned were a significantly smaller fraction of their expendable income relative to any options I know of today.
Why travel, if you can watch the world in HD from your sofa? Perhaps the immigrants will change it, but we have no money to spend on individual airplanes. We spend all earning on renting apartments, because the home ownership is not affordable for immigrants anymore. In general I’m surprised how little my U.S. born coworkers travel. I see people how were born and raised in SF Bay Area, but have never been outside the country or even traveled across U.S. They have only been a few times in Las Vegas or LA, and even have no idea about local destinations.
Good lord, 380 million people? How many would be enough?
Another thing not helping GA as a hobby is the “sitting is the new smoking” meme. If I think about taking up flying as a hobby (I could theoretically afford it), the thought of sitting still in a pilot’s seat for multiple hours doesn’t appeal. If I want a view from above, I can just fire up Google Earth or my $1K drone.
[Granted, doing something like accidentally flying into a thunderstorm could get you the same heart rate as other forms of exercise. But it probably doesn’t increase overall lifespan.]
I’m under 40 and wife is under 30. Both of us have private licenses and are on our way to getting IFR. Definitely seem to be in the minority.
I am not a pilot, just a cis white male in his forties. I think flying would be awesome but is is as attainable to me as going to Mars.
How much better is an entry level car from today compared to the 1950’s?
How much better is today’s entry level plane for someone interested in general aviation?
–Ed
Ed: Your last question is easy to answer. Today’s entry-level plane is same as the 1950s entry-level plane except that it is 60 years older! Here’s a 1956 Cessna 172 for $21,500: https://www.controller.com/listings/aircraft/for-sale/1442631/1956-cessna-172-skyhawk ; look at the great visibility over the curved panel!
Why travel, if you can watch the world in HD from your sofa? Perhaps the immigrants will change it, but we have no money to spend on individual airplanes. We spend all earning on renting apartments, because the home ownership is not affordable for immigrants anymore. In general I’m surprised how little my U.S. born coworkers travel. I see people how were born and raised in SF Bay Area, but have never been outside the country or even traveled across U.S. They have only been a few times in Las Vegas or LA, and even have no idea about local destinations
Flying on your own is really only fun in a helicopter. There are less restrictions on where you go and how you get there. The view at 1000 feet cannot be duplicated in Google Earth. It is somewhat challenging to learn how to fly one. You avoid the delays at airports departing and arriving. The rental cost per hour is not that much different than a fancy Cirrus. Flights are generally not that long. You can fly without IFR when the ceilings are 3000 feet. Your friends are anxious go with you. Thanks Philip for helping to make it possible at ECAC.
Don’t remember you mentioned the book: happy end by dietmar eckell – miracles in aviation history abandoned in the middle of nowhere ISBN 978-3-00-042141-9
Available from the author for a much more reasonable price than from amazon.