Marc Ginsberg, who was Bill Clinton’s ambassador to Morocco, was a speaker on our recent cruise to that country. It seems that, subsequent to this position in Morocco he has done a lot of work with Asian countries and thus he gave a talk about North Korea and stressed the rationality of the ruling Kim Dynasty. It has not escaped the Kim family’s notice that dictators who gave up their nuclear weapons programs eventually lost their lives (see Saddam Hussein, for example, and Muammar Qaddafi). Thus the media description of the Kim leaders as “crazy” is inaccurate. In Ginsberg’s view, the correct way to think about North Korea is that it is a successful family business for the Kims.
What to do about a nuclear-capable North Korea? In Ginsberg’s view the Obama Administration’s policy of “strategic patience” (i.e., doing nothing for 8 years) has unfortunately left us with no good options. The North Koreans are so heavily armed at this point and Seoul is so close (about 20 miles) from the DMZ that any kind of military assault on North Korea presents an intolerable risk to South Koreans. Basically we will have to admit that China is the only real power in that corner of the world and humbly beg them to help us out.
(After the talk I asked Ginsberg “If it is a business, why not offer them $20 billion per year to live comfortably in Switzerland? That’s nothing compared to what we’re spending on our military response.” He said that it wouldn’t work because the Kims were having too much fun being at the head of a cult of personality, but I still think it is worth a try! Switzerland is a lot nicer than North Korea and $20 billion is probably more than they’re extracting for personal use from the North Korean economy.)
It is not a family business, it is a communist dictatorship. Eldest Kim was hand-picked by Stalin era Soviet military offciers for his military and ideological qualities. It is baloney about threat of NK conventional weapons to SK. 90% of NK artillery threatening Seoul could be destroyed in first hour of conflict, South Korea has strong military of its own and should be able to handle its civil defense of civilian population.
Agree 100% that handling of Qaddafi prompted Kim’s braziness – Obama’s, H. Clinton and Kerry policies were disaster. Youngest Kim acts logically for sure but his premises are not rational.
Dubious that Kim would accept the Swiss option because he will be concerned about time inconsistency, that the west will renege. Remember that Ukraine in return for giving up its nuclear arsenal was promised protection by the west, which failed to materialize when Ukraine was invaded.
A very fine article on the subject
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/07/the-worst-problem-on-earth/528717/
And a conversation to match
https://www.samharris.org/podcast/item/must-we-accept-a-nuclear-north-korea
The Kims would probably expect to get assasinated – even in Switzerland.
Well, the bad Kims anyway. The nice one would maybe be spared
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/05/22/the-sad-story-of-kim-jong-chul-the-north-korean-leaders-brother-and-eric-clapton-megafan/?utm_term=.22d987f15e4a
Kim might feel at home because he went to a Swiss boarding school. ( But strange that he is even more of an Oriental despot than his non-Western educated dad).
Also there is precedent for luxuriously exiling ex-dictators, even murderous ones (Idi Amin, the Ukrainian guy, etc.).
Maybe Kim would feel safest in Russia, the mentors of his grandpa? Putin could put him up in one of his 20 palaces.
Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame) suggested we bribe NKorea and China to sign a deal whereby Kim gives up his nukes in exchange for China promising their military will protect Kim from anyone. Kim stays in power + gets protection for life, while SKorea/Japan/Guam can stop worrying about ICBMs raining on them. It’s the least worst solution I’ve read. I’m sceptical though, because Kim needs to act crazy enough to scare internal opponents too.
I like to think that the people actually running the country know they’re running out of time, money, and human capital to sustain their existence, and believe that all this saber rattling is designed to cause the West to intervene, overthrow the government, and restore some sense of dignity to the people that are being emaciated. There’s just no scenario where the actual leaders of the country don’t understand how out-gunned they are. Sure, some people will die, but the generals know that 1) the modern weapons they face will be highly targeted, so there will be little collateral damage, and 2) the foreign powers that topple the regime will still need the help of most of the current ruling class to restore order, so they will have a part in the new government. This will allow them to save face on the world stage, and emerge as a contemporary power, in 20-50 years. It’s either that, or eventually collapse, and have essentially nothing left to rule over in another 30. I think the entire concept of fielding nuclear-capable missile is a hail Mary gambit to salvage what they can.
David K.:
That’s exactly how it played out in Iraq with Baath leaders, right?
David K: More likely they know they are in a hole but can’t figure out how to stop digging without getting shot.
Kims are throwbacks to time of military competent smart ideologues, they understand that there is no power but their own, and are somewhat paranoid. Even during rare visits to Brezhnev’s USSR the eldest Kim always traveled by personal train full of bodyguards and never flew. Swiss (and American) closed entities for reach dictators are no school of liberty and democracy. It is preposterous to think that youngest Kim interested in bourgeois life even if it was possible. West lost time to deal with NK decisively militarily before NK got nukes, from here on it will be all downhill while West is still relevant as an entity. But if action is taken and majority od South Korean support it North Koreans will be integrated into South Korean society fast, probably faster than East Germans into West Germany. Koreans are hardworking people who got split between former USSR, NK and SK by random act of international bureaucrats. Many of refugees that ended up in former USSR or NK were born in SK and are not ideological.