Perhaps due to the persistent refusal of Swedes to go into the ICU and die from Covid-19, despite two months of hysterical predictions and headlines, Florida and Texas seem to be in the news daily with dramatic “spikes” of “cases” (i.e., positive tests).
Given the drumbeat of media coverage, I would expect that most people in FL and TX are actually dead as of today. Yet, this dashboard from Texas shows that not many are even hospitalized:
The 10,658 hospitalized (in a state of 29 million) might include some folks who are actually suffering from something else, primarily, but happy to test positive for Covid-19?
Science tells us to expect an exponential growth process on a finite planet. The virus will never run out of suitable hosts, for example. Yet Texas, after weeks of “spiking” and exponential growth in positive tests, seems to be on a plateau as far as hospitalizations are concerned. Could it be that the plague is actually near a peak right now in Texas?
Florida, a state of 21 million, had 87 deaths reported yesterday, a somewhat higher rate than in Maskachusetts, which we are told has done a fantastic job of getting the virus under control (17 deaths reported yesterday in a state of 7 million).
Related:
- “Flu drives hospitals into ‘war zone’ conditions: Tents on the street in California, ‘state of emergency’ in Alabama, and Boston is using GATORADE to plug shortage of IV drips” (Daily Mail, January 17, 2018): “Hospitals in Southern California have set up emergency tents in their parking lot to treat the influx of flu patients – a scene that looks like a ‘war zone'”
- from the Texas Medical Association: “In Texas, more than 11,000 people died from flu and its complications during the 2017-18 flu season, including 16 children, the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) said.” (compare to about 4,000 Covid-19 deaths in Texas so far)
It is not clear to what degree some deaths are misclassified. Probably not much, but cases like this add to public diminished trust in government officials:
https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-questions-raised-after-fatal-motorcycle-crash-listed-as-covid-19-death
Despite the explicit guidance to exclude corona infected victims of auto accidents: “there is a confirmed COVID-19 infection from a lab test – and the cause of death doesn’t meet exclusion criteria – like trauma, suicide, homicide, overdose, motor-vehicle accident, etc.”, Dr. Pino insisted that “you could actually argue that it could have been the COVID-19 that caused him to crash”.
Most C19 deaths are misclassified, at least as normal medical practice is concerned (i.e. if a patient has terminal cancer and succumbs to a cold, the cold is not considered a cause of death – it’s just the last straw which broke the already failing body, the real cause is cancer). How do we know that this is the case? Check how many C19 fatalities are associated with comorbidities and very old age. Plus, officials openly talk about counting every fatality WITH SARS2 deteceted or even presumed as C19 death.
In the case of FL/TX, I’m still a bit uneasy that the reported data isn’t being machined to meet some political objectives. For example:
https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-still-not-releasing-daily-covid-19-hospitalization-rate-2020-7
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-positivity-rate-florida-paints-rosy-pandemic-picture-20200715-cpwwngaefzdnpitbs7buh7zsei-story.html
Of course, one counter narrative would be that the anti-Trump crowd is deliberately calling the data into question.
On the hospitalization numbers, one central question is the demographic breakdown (age groups) driving hospitalizations. Certainly, I’d like to know that before saying “Gee-willikers, Phil G says we’re ok, so let’s party like it’s 2019!”. No idea where the Texas Trib stands politically (since that appears to be a quality factor in ‘reporting’ these days):
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/14/texas-hospitals-coronavirus/
That doesn’t sound like ordinary times. But who knows, running short of one ICU bed is an opportunity to grab some eyeballs if reported skillfully.
Here in Connecticut, my informal efforts to match up what I see in media vs the observed situation on the ground is that people are still hanging back from traditional patterns of behavior – restaurants that would be mobbed on Thur-Sat evenings are still lightly attended. The more popular venues have done a good job at adapting to the 50% rules by scaling their seating to outdoor tents. Obviously, with temps running on the high side, the outdoor tents aren’t a first choice. One local restaurant had a line of folks waiting to get in (masked & spaced), and as well 3-4 cars waiting on line for pickup.
Reported results out of the local casinos seem somewhat encouraging:
https://dailyvoice.com/connecticut/shelton/business/covid-19-foxwoods-reports-strong-revenue-since-reopening-amid-pandemic/790881/
Seen on Twitter, but didn’t spend time attempting to verify:
https://twitter.com/andishehnouraee/status/1284237474831761408/photo/1
But on the other hand, when I drive through the multistory parking garage at what would have been a peak time, only one level of the garage has cars parked, maybe ~35% of capacity. The other levels were empty. Again very informally, we haven’t seen the traditional stream of eastbound buses from NYC -> CT casinos either.
Anyways, I’d call it a mixed bag. I suspect I’m among many like minded folks in taking a cautious approach to returning to BAU behavior. Good to see some people living life again, while others groups, hanging back as they choose.
I find myself enjoying the meta classification game – reading all the various points of view on where we’re at, what happens next, what we should be believing, and developing new sorting buckets to place each “information” source into. Blogs aren’t expected to offer well considered narratives, different points of view, but perhaps more alarming is the uniformity of each source, eg NYT, FOX, Breitbart, Wapo, etc – it’s like I almost don’t have to read any of them to know what will be reported.
Prediction: as the November election gets closer, media reports of what a terrible job Emperor Trump is doing against covid-19 will increase, especially in swing states.
This article reads like a beatdown of NY and mass.
https://www.outkick.com/florida-texas-case-surges-produces-small-fraction-of-new-york-deaths/
The article asks a lot of valid questions. The kind of questions that should be investigated in search of the best state policies and approaches for dealing with COVID.
There are many variables involved though so it’ll take some time to sort through it I do believe that FL is making their situation worse by not having a mask mandate though.
Hopefully we can get some high quality, science-based nonpartisan studies completed so that we can truly figure out what works best and be better prepared for the next pandemic.
As usual Phil is spot on when it come to the corona virus. The media hope scare tactics will force states to shut down, the economy to further collapse and Trumpenfuhrer to be booted. Then good old grinning senile Joe will become the nominal president front and center to have a PR photo taken with the president of Mexico and like the politburo in the FSU the dems will engage in internecine warfare to take control of the spoils of the US of A. Hopefully Florida and Texas will stand firm and not make a total disaster of things like NY and the Commonwealth. And by November the voters can decide which states have done better, the blue or the red.
Phil hasn’t been “spot on” about anything to do with Covid (sorry Phil). He’s just posting his opinions and links to support his opinion.
Several pundits (and a lot of the comments) remind me loosely of Bush’s “Mission Accomplished” in Iraq. Pretty cocky and sure that FL/TX is so much better due to the “leadership”. Let’s revisit in one month, and see where we are. I hope I am wrong. Btw the article that @Viking references is a good one, and I agree on the Nursing Home analysis.
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/16/891997539/georgia-hospital-worker-sounds-alarm-i-have-never-ever-seen-anything-like-this
Is this hysteria from NPR , or a serious problem unfolding in Georgia?
National Propaganda Radio is doing what it always did. Lying by omission and cherry-picking anecdotal reports.
I don’t care for either Joe or Donald. I won’t vote for either.
I do have a sense that the day after the election we’re going to hear Joe Biden or the media change the political spin on the virus to “It’s just a really BAD flu.”
Of course, it’s not just the flu, but the virus is going to be greatly downplayed by the media after the election because their goal will have been met and their new goal will be to make President Joe look good for as long as possible.
Why is the death rate in FL and TX so low? Fake infection numbers? Everyone frail that could be easily killed off by the sniffles(or more accurately treatment for the sniffles) has already been snuffed?
Interesting take here, claim that Singapore stopped transmission with hand washing. https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=239747
That’s a bold claim considering how much evidence there is pointing to droplets as the primary mode of transmission (and also aerosols in enclosed environments with a lot of talking/singing).
If the problem is aerosolized droplets instead of masks a strip of medical tape over the mouth would be far more effective. Force everyone to nose breath and no talking. Yeah everyone lives. All evidence points to mask mandates as not having public health being the reason for them. Mask mandates are the same as if the FAA said you need a pilots license, so go buy one, or make one on a computer and if you don’t have access to a computer make your license with crayons and paper. As long as it says ‘pilots license’ it is valid in our eyes and safety is assured.
Here is a link to a great article on the declining mortality of hospitalized Texas COVID patients,a few quotes from the article.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/17/coronavirus-deaths-stubbornly-low-us-new-cases-soar/
a few quotes from the article:
“Our ward is full of coronavirus patients, but we’ve had amazing success in treating them,” said Dr Varon, chief medical officer at United Memorial Medical Center. “Around 95 per cent of people who have come in here have walked out.”
The combination of cortisone steroid, vitamins and anti-coagulants is helping them combat the two biggest dangers of the virus – inflammation and clotting – and it is having some staggering results.
The Math+ Protocol even managed to help a 92-year-old Covid sufferer undergoing chemotherapy for colon cancer.
“We learned so much in a few months,” Dr Varon, who has treated over 200 coronavirus patients, told The Telegraph.
Amazing, since at first they claimed steroids lowered the immune system and should be avoided. Live and learn!
Here is a fun one. Maskachusetts is going to make diaper face dictates permanent.
https://www.newburyportnews.com/news/regional_news/mask-mandate-could-become-permanent/article_7252a9d6-1416-5c17-998b-a1bc67908391.html
It seems that medical science is getting better at treating this novel virus, as expected. Given the number of potential long term damage from the disease, merely looking at deaths is perhaps too limited. Even so, tracking the number of excess deaths is interesting.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
That’s probably because people are following social distancing guidelines.