From the no-longer-failing NYT:
As promised, Joe Biden has shut down the coronavirus. And, not only has he shut down coronavirus in the U.S., he’s defeated this pathogen on a planetary scale.
Should we credit the science-informed leadership of Joe Biden, Dr. Jill Biden, M.D., and Dr. Anthony Fauci, no longer told what to say by Donald Trump? Credit double-masking instead? (we can’t credit vaccines, right, because the downturn started before any significant number of folks were vaccinated)
And, if coronavirus is not, in fact, beaten, when does it start up again? (I recognize that #Science is supposed to be done retroactively, i.e., wait for the data to come in and then offer an explanation for the curve shape, but I would also be interested in 2019-style #Science in which the scientist offers a hypothesis and then tests that with later-arriving data)
If you’re confused, don’t feel bad. A medical school professor friend reminded me the other day that physicians still can’t explain why influenza is seasonal.
And, for those who are curious to know how unmasked folks in the Florida Free State are doing relative to the global average…
Compare to opposite-end-of-the-spectrum California, where 40 million people have cowered in place for an entire year:
And the never-masked never-shut South Dakotans:
What about the wicked never-masked never-shut Swedes?
Omg, priceless, this could have been in The Onion! 😀
Or on, https://babylonbee.com/ which is arguably funnier 😉
disevad: Thanks, I was not familiar with that site!
A hypothesis from a scientist, but not an immunologist, virologist, epidemiologist, or other supposed expert on Covid-19, is that the rapid and dramatic decline in cases the last 6 weeks is due to achievement of a population-based immunity level that has greatly reduced continued spread of the virus compared to a few months ago. Assumptions:
– 50 million children under 12 where transmission from one person to another is incredibly low
– roughly 90 million people who have already been infected (3x confirmed cases which everyone seems to agree is a reasonable estimate)
– data from highly credible scientific publications says those infected have high levels of neutralizing antibodies, AT LEAST 6-8mo following infection
Thus, roughly 40% of the US population is longer infection/transmission capable. Add to this any amount of social distancing behaviors which reduce potential for transmission as a multiplier effect on individual immunity. So, in my small mind, we have reached a ‘tipping point’ where enough people have immunity that further spread of the virus is greatly inhibited. Now that 55 million have had at least one dose of vaccine, and have some level of vaccine-induced immunity, we are rapidly approaching the magic number of 70% to reach herd-immunity (which BTW is still a guess…).
Finally, the fear-mongers will tell us we are days away from an exploding number of cases due to one variant or another. I believe that is a concern but not likely. In the US we have done a terrible job of identifying and tracking variants, and given the data we do have it seems likely we already have high levels of the variants circulating, and still cases numbers are falling…
Terry: Everything that you’re saying about the U.S. makes sense. But we also have to consider the rest of the world, don’t we? Coronavirus seems to be seasonal to at least some extent and the rest of the world is not on the same seasonal clock as us (as beautifully explained by these Harvard graduates: https://youtu.be/JXb7Oq13pjQ ). I guess most of the world’s test-happy population lives in the Northern Hemisphere so maybe the people who contribute significant to these global statistics are, in fact, on roughly the same seasonal clock.
@Philg: Well, you have to cut those Harvard graduates some slack. It looks like that video was taken in the early ’80s? Those Harvardians didn’t have YouTube back then, so they couldn’t learn from the Kurdistan Planetarium what causes seasons. I’m sure they’ve remediated themselves whilst running the world in the interim. Lifelong learning. Robert Reich.
“When the sun is directly overhead, we call this the ‘Overhead Sun’.”
https://youtu.be/WLRA87TKXLM?t=61
The comments are tremendous:
Spoken like a true Southie:
letsdewitup extras: “I remember this from 7th grade it was a funny and we were just yelling the earth is tilted ya dingus”
There’s no hope for humanity:
LostSparrow: “why is the camera so bad? even a iphone 6 is better”
But what’s going on with mortality? From their peak in early January daily cases have fallen something like 75% but deaths seem to have only dropped about 15%. Or is the Washington Post tracker defective, https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/coronavirus-us-cases-deaths/.
Or could it be because the pcr test cycle has been lower?
Oh… I should provide info on the lowering of cycle from a simple search inquiry.
https://covidcalltohumanity.org/who-lowers-cycle-thresholds-for-pcr-tests/
Doesn’t mean I respect WHO. Their members action show how two face they are, WHO just situated itself so that they will remain as the authority to be in a corrupt situation.
Two noteworthy developments today: Fauci has been awarded a $1M prize for speaking truth to power, preserving the integrity of #Science, and his leadership and impact in public health:
“The Dan David Prize, affiliated with Tel Aviv University, said it honored Fauci for his career in public health and “speaking truth to power” during the politicized COVID-19 crisis.
Fauci “is the consummate model of leadership and impact in public health,” the awards committee said in a statement.”
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2021/02/15/968059128/fauci-awarded-1-million-israeli-prize-for-speaking-truth-to-power-amid-pandemic
So now Dr. Fauci has an additional $900,000 ($100,000 of the 1M goes to scholarships) on top of his yearly salary of $471,000+ to continue his personal advancement of #Science.
In other news, consistent with your charts, Massachusetts reported its lowest number of new cases since November: but look out below! The B.1.351 Variant from South Africa has been found here for the first time, in a Middlesex County woman in her 20’s who reports “not having traveled recently.” So she must have picked it up from someone else in Middlesex County who has traveled recently. The article doesn’t say where in MC, which is rather large, as you know.
https://patch.com/massachusetts/medford/s/hfl2b/south-african-coronavirus-variant-reaches-ma
“The B.1.351 variant is known to spread easily,” the DPH said.
“The best defense against a rapid rise in cases from variants of concern is to prevent the spread of COVID,” the DPH said.
So you and everybody else in MC had better start double-masking right away, lest you contribute to another spike before the Spring.
> (I recognize that #Science is supposed to be done retroactively, i.e., wait for the data to come in and then offer an explanation for the curve shape, but I would also be interested in 2019-style #Science in which the scientist offers a hypothesis and then tests that with later-arriving data)
You will never see that from anyone in this country regarding the pandemic. That is because this is not a #Scientific endeavor. At the core, yes, when it comes to the very basic epidemiology and of course the vaccine developement, genetic detective work, and the therapy development, it’s scientific. But this has always been a public relations and mass media endeavor, much more than the #Science, which is feeble. The entire situation therefore resembles nothing so much as an ongoing game of media propaganda and spin doctoring, because that’s what it is when you’re controlling 330 million people by eliminating their civil rights and locking them in their homes.
Fourth wave now anticipated due to variants:
“I’m very worried we’re letting our foot off the brakes,” said Atul Gawande, a surgeon at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and a professor at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2021/02/16/covid-19-us-fourth-wave-variants-coronavirus/4460958001/
Now is the time, she and others said, to double-down on precautions, to avoid a deadly fourth wave and finally bring the virus under control.
Alex – see chart page 23: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/961299/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_6_England-1.pdf
Basically think it’s saying that in the UK, yes, there new variant is the dominant strain, but it’s also decreasing :-).
@Paul B: That’s wonderful for Britain, and I hope it’s true here as well. The problem I have is that Dr. Atul Gawande here in the United States is just finding his legs in the new Administration and when he worries about people taking their foot off the brakes, I’m preparing to get stomped on here in Massachusetts.
David Friedman suggests we may have reached herd immunity:
http://daviddfriedman.blogspot.com/2021/02/have-we-reached-herd-immunity.html
Great series of notes on herd-immunity from Friedman and others who commented – thx!
As Phil mentioned in an earlier post (https://philip.greenspun.com/blog/2021/02/13/a-boston-based-doctor-throws-rocks-at-north-dakota/) cases can vary a lot based on testing available, are people required to be tested, etc. Those requirements have varied a lot over time and by state.
But a death is a death. Just for fun I went to https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/.
Currently CA has a death rate of 120/100K, and FL has a death rate of 136/100K (approximately 13% higher).
But Florida has 19% of their population over 65, while CA has 14%, and we know that the greatest number of deaths occur in the age group over 65 – 81% according to the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm. I would *guess* Florida has a lot more people over 65 (and more over 85, the age group with the largest number of deaths), but just a guess.
My conclusion? CA has done a terrible job with their response to the virus.
Paul – you are on to something. Lockdowns are not the answer.