Did 10 percent inflation happen during 2020 without us noticing?

One of the miracles of 2020 was that the U.S. government could borrow/print money like crazy in response to coronapanic and yet inflation, as calculated by the U.S. government, did not go up.

But what if inflation did happen and we just didn’t notice because we were locked down and prevented from leaving the U.S.?

Here’s the USD versus the Euro:

A dollar was worth 0.92 euro a year ago. As of February 15, 2021 it is worth 11 percent less, 0.82 euro.

How about versus the yen?

The USD is down from 110 to 105 in yen.

The USD is down against gold and silver. On February 15, 2020 they cost $1583 and $18. On February 15, 2021 it took $1819 to buy the same ounce of gold and $28 to buy the same ounce of silver.

Is it fair to say that we’ve had 10 percent inflation over the last 12 months?

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Flush toilets in New York City for $60 per hour

Our mole inside the New York real estate industry told us about a newly available career path: toilet flusher. “The office towers are empty and if you don’t have someone go in and flush toilets and run sinks, you’ll get Legionnaires’ disease. Even when the sinks and toilets are electronically controlled, nobody ever envisioned a time when buildings would be vacant for months or years. So there is no way to program them to run themselves automatically every few days. We’re paying people $60 per hour to go in and flush toilets.”

Why isn’t it $20 per hour? “There’s government funding for this so it has to be prevailing wage,” he replied. “Union wages start at $60 per hour.”

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Life expectancy scientists never expected a pandemic

“A Grim Measure of Covid’s Toll: Life Expectancy Drops Sharply in U.S.” (NYT):

American life expectancy fell by one year, to 77.8 years, in the first half of 2020.

Thursday’s data gives the first full picture of the pandemic’s effect on American expected life spans, which dropped to 77.8 years from 78.8 years in 2019. It also showed a deepening of racial and ethnic disparities: Life expectancy of the Black population declined by 2.7 years in the first half of 2020, slicing away 20 years of gains. The life expectancy gap between Black and white Americans, which had been narrowing, is now at six years, the widest it has been since 1998.

“I knew it was going to be large but when I saw those numbers, I was like, ‘Oh my God,’” Elizabeth Arias, the federal researcher who produced the report, said of the racial disparity. Of the drop for the full population, she said, “We haven’t seen a decline of that magnitude in decades.”

The last time a pandemic caused a major decline in life expectancy was 1918, when hundreds of thousands of Americans died from the flu pandemic. Life expectancy declined by a whopping 11.8 years from 1917 to 1918, Dr. Arias said, bringing average life spans down to 39 years.

So… coronavirus was nowhere near as deadly as the last truly bad flu, yet the “scientists” in charge of life expectancy calculations apparently did not budget for even a moderately bad flu pandemic, such as 1957. They assumed that human population could be expanded from 2 billion (1920) to 8 billion (2020) without any virus evolving to take advantage of this expansion in hosts (and the hosts clustering themselves together in cities). They assumed this against a continuous stream of publications from the WHO and others that a pandemic was likely. (See Paper titled “Stockpiling Ventilators for Influenza Pandemics” for example; also Pandemic Influenza Preparedness And Response (WHO, 2009, which incidentally tells governments to do the opposite of what governments have done in response to COVID-19: don’t close borders unless you’re an island and don’t tell the general public to wear masks))

Is it possible to make these scientific conclusions, one about life expectancy and one about the likelihood of future respiratory virus pandemics, consistent somehow?

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Medical School 2020, Year 3, Week 8 (Pediatrics)

Second week of outpatient pediatrics. My job for 80 percent of the visits is to differentiate between viral and bacterial upper respiratory infections (“URIs”). I take the history and physical for each cold and respond to questions about medication dosing. Then it is time to present the patient for two minutes while the attending fills out a SmartText in the clinic’s Epic system. Mother Mabel: “Once we realize you know how to conduct a basic exam, we want to see if you can parse the relevant findings from the ordinary.”

We see an 5-year-old who has red macules and patches all over her body. She’s not scratching and doesn’t even notice them. The rash started on her leg, and spread over her entire body. I have no idea what the rash is because it does not fit the standard viral exanthems (rashes) of childhood that we learned in medical school. As I am describing the case to Mother Mabel, she starts smiling. “I know exactly what this is.” Pityriasis Rosea. We tell the patient there is nothing to do but wait. “We believe it is caused by the immune system’s reaction to various viruses.”

We see a 13-year-old patient with Addison’s disease for a URI and dizziness. She and her mother knew a huge amount about managing her disease, including about the need to take extra stress dosing. Addison’s disease is an autoimmune attack destroying the adrenal glands. Without any cortisol, the body can become hypoglycemic in times of stress. During an infection, the patient is instructed to take an additional “stress” dose over her daily hydrocortisone level.

Mabel also gets excited by this one. We check her blood glucose to rule out hypoglycemia and prescribe antibiotics for a sinus infection: high dose amoxicillin. I talk to Busy Belle, the patient’s regular pediatrician, about management of Addison’s disease such as stress dosing and risk of other endocrine gland destruction. “I’m not sure, my N is 1.” Last year, Busy Belle saw the patient at the office in hypoglycemic shock. Her blood sugar was in the 30s, blood pressure was 80/35. She gave her some pedialyte solution and sent her to the hospital in an ambulance where she was diagnosed with Addison’s disease. Her most recent labs in the chart show a slightly elevated TSH (thyroid stimulating hormone) at her last visit with the pediatric endocrinologist, with whom she has an appointment next week. It seems that all the exciting management is done by the specialist.

A similar experience occurred on Wednesday with Mercedes Mike. He has accumulated several patients with congenital heart defects. I see an adorable 4-year-old with hypoplastic left heart syndrome who came down with the sniffles. The mother brought her in to ensure she didn’t need immediate intervention. Her oxygen saturations were fine, so we sent her home until her F/U (“follow up”) with the cardiologist in a week. We talked afterwards about the various surgical management of hypoplastic left heart syndrome. Once again, all the interesting management, e.g., echocardiograms, CT surgery referrals, EKG evaluation, etc., is performed by the specialist.

Patterns emerge around risk factors by age group. Every girl with a chief complaint of back pain is going to be either a dancer or cheerleader. An 8-year-old who presented for a typical URI tells us that she dances competitively five days a week. I asked if she has back pain. The mother lights up: “Oh yes, tell him honey.” The expected five minute visit, turns into a complicated 20 minute neurological exam. Afterwards, Mercedes Mike asks: “What’s the elephant in the room you have to rule out in these patients?” I don’t know. I look it up and get back to him. Spondylolisthesis, where one vertebra slips forward from the one below. This can cause serious spinal cord injury if not treated.

My next patient stumbled and hit her head on the gym floor during cheer practice. My presentation: “A CT is not indicated. She has a benign neurological exam, no LOC [loss of consciousness], and only mild headaches. My assessment is she has a mild concussion from the fall and should return to practice only after she feels comfortable at school for a few days.” He responds: “I agree with you, but it’s better to not use your gut when there are evidence-based protocols. Look up the indications for a CT scan.” After 10 minutes of googling I find the PECARN (Pediatric Head/Injuries Trauma Algorithm) guidelines and summarize: “As long as there is not prolonged LOC, signs of basilar skull fracture and no altered mental status, it is unlikely to have a significant TBI requiring further intervention.” Mike responds, “Yep, look above your screen.” Taped to the wall above the nurse’s station is the algorithm figure from the original PECARN paper. According to the these guidelines, there is less than a one percent chance of a clinically-important TBI as long as there are no signs of LOC > 5s, Glascow Coma Score < 14 (GCS, standard metric to assess neurological status) or palpable non-frontal skull fracture. Mercedes Mike: “I’m a new attending, so if I were talking with a more experienced doctor about a patient with suspected TBI, I would definitely mention PECARN just so they know that I am familiar with the guidelines. As a new attending, you need to build trust with other doctors.”

[Later, to Jane: “If we ever have kids, they are not doing dance or cheer.”]

A middle-class white 16-year-old girl is next. Mom wants to increase her ADHD medication dose because of bad behavior at home. Instead of acquiescing, Mercedes Mike asked, “Why are you poorly behaved at home?” Teenager mumbles: “I just get mad when my mom and sister ask me to repeat myself.” Mike: “Well neither of you are perfect, but she’s in charge right now until you pay the bills. So try not to mumble” Teen: “I’m going to be working at Taco Bell soon.” Mike: “You’re not paying the bills yet.” Decision: no change in meds.

[Busy Belle suggests skepticism regarding schools’ recommendations for ADHD evaluation. “We always get teacher and coach evaluations as well as a parent evaluation of each kid. The symptoms need to be occurring in at least two different environments. I started to notice a lot of kids at one school were being recommended for ADHD medication. It turned out that the evaluations were the exact same letter with the names substituted. Boy, did they regret that. I contacted the county superintendent and the principal’s secretary was fired with a stern warning to the principal.” (Editor: the stern warning to the bureaucrat was softened only by a monthly paycheck, lifetime health insurance, and lifetime pension.)]

Outpatient pediatrics is helpful for understanding why diagnoses take a long time. A common reason for patients to come in is non-specific abdominal pain without any diarrhea, constipation, or vomiting. It’s not reasonable to get a full work up (CT, CBC, CMP, inflammatory markers) for a one-week history of GI pain. Patients arrive with only a vague story of off-and-on symptoms rather than a precise timeline. One of our common responses is handing out a symptom diary. Mother Mabel: “As a new attending I keep a slightly closer eye on my patients. Instead of telling them to come back in a month with a symptom diary, I’ll have them come back in two weeks for a follow up visit.”

The best part so far is playing with the adorable 4-8 month olds. However, most of what a pediatrician does is educate parents or tell students to get their act together and listen to mom (our typical patient lives primarily with a “single mom” and is well-behaved every other weekend with dad, but out of control in the mom’s house). Should seven years of training be required for this? A successful parent of four could do most of this job. A pediatrician is involved in the “interesting” kids only to manage common illnesses that pop up in between their visits to specialists.

Mike delivers a mid-clinic eval. “You’re doing fine. Use a template when you interview patients to not forget anything, but overall good job.”

Jane on pediatric hematology/oncology, an elective rotation, and has been bored because one of the hematologists is on vacation. Jane’s typical day: arrives at 8:30 am, her first two patients are (Medicaid) no-shows so her attending fills out paperwork in the office. She sits around waiting until her lecture at 12:30 for a journal club on the use of antibiotics and reflux medications in childhood leading to allergies. She waits all day to see two patients at 3 and 4:30 pm. She returns home: “I wanted to strangle a 7 year old today.” Strangle a kid with cancer? “He wouldn’t shut up, and he was in remission.” 

Statistics for the week… Study: 8 hours. Sleep: 8 hours/night; Fun: 1 night. Meet classmates downtown for happy hour margaritas. Pinterest Penelope, also in pediatrics but in a different clinic: :”What I hate about third year so far is that you cannot plan anything. I rescheduled my own doctor’s appointment today so that I could be there for all the patients. The last two were no-shows. It’s just so much waiting, yet no free time.” (Penelope’s clinic serves an all-Medicaid population and there are no charges for failing to show up.)

The rest of the book: http://fifthchance.com/MedicalSchool2020

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Wealth migration from New York measured by K-1s

A friend of a friend runs a real estate business in Manhattan: “We have 18 limited partners,” he said. “Ten years ago, we mailed 18 K-1s to New York addresses. This year it was 0.” Where did the rich limiteds migrate to? “Two went overseas, one to Switzerland. Most of the rest went to states with no income tax. Florida, South Dakota.”

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Clubhouse is a greenfield for whitesplaining

In the department of what’s old is new and what’s new is old, I’ve used Clubhouse a bit more. It is hard to explain how it is different from old-school talk radio other than not being limited by spectrum and therefore able to handle an infinite number of channels. However, the same could be said about Zello, an app from 2007 that supports public channels. Clubhouse has a Follow button so it is easy to get into the same channel as your friends. Maybe Zello never had that?

Here’s a conversation that I couldn’t resist joining (as an audience member), “Black Voices for Trump 2024”:

It was fascinating to hear how a substantial sized group of Black Americans process the messages being sent to them by the white elites with BLM signs on their lawns.

Some excerpts:

  • “If you’re Black in America and put your mind to it, you can be whatever you want to be.”
  • On how she talks to Black Democrat friends: “If Trump were impeached, how would it help your community?”
  • “Biden has been issuing executive orders at a furious rate. What has he done for the Black community?”
  • “Why are they trying to feminize all our men?”
  • “Once all of the illegal immigrants are naturalized, the Democrats will never talk to us again. We will be behind Hispanics and Asians and won’t be relevant.”
  • “Biden is cut from the same cloth as Strom Thurmond. Why would you vote for someone like that?”
  • “Obama set off five proxy wars in Africa”
  • “I’m finishing a PhD on the War on Drugs.”
  • To a white participant: “You will never know what it’s like to be Black and I will never know what it’s like to be white. We just have to find common ground.”
  • Woman: “I tell my white friends not to apologize to me for white supremacy because that makes me feel that they’re saying they are superior to me. I grew up in Alabama and my father had a third rate education, but he was able to raise us without my mother having to work and we never felt that there was something we couldn’t do.”
  • Woman from Texas: Trump stopped the revolving door of illegal immigrants who would get deported and come back a few days later. Despite this, the Black neighborhoods of Texas continue to be wiped out via population replacement with Hispanic migrants.

I posted these in real time to a Facebook post. In an aside, I noted “I am waiting for a platoon of white Democrats from San Francisco to set these folks straight regarding the proper way to be Black!” Right on cue…

  • White-looking guy named Arjun: “I’m a multi-Ethnic person.” [But if you saw his profile photo you would likely say that he is white.] He thanks the group for their respect and humanity. Says he comes from a different place politically. Disproves the idea that white liberals offer Blacks empty words by speaking for about 2 minutes and saying nothing.

A bit later….

  • Arjun is back. Talking about working at a farmer’s market in the Tenderloin and “genuinely perplexed” by the fact that only 10% of the customers at this farmer’s market are Black. “A true travesty”. He posits that maybe Black people don’t know how to cook.

(Arjun was right about one thing: when Trump haters showed up they were heard out in full, not interrupted, and responded to respectfully.)

The meeting continues…

  • 35-year-old:: “I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016. Everything Trump was doing once in office was creating opportunity for me. So I voted for him in 2020.”
  • Guy who went door to door in a white liberal neighborhood recounts all of the whites that told him that he shouldn’t be supporting Trump because he was Black. “Do you really need to know what Joe Biden’s policies are to vote Donald Trump out?” asked a white say-gooder. “Yes, ma’am, that’s what politics is about.”
  • “White women are getting all of the contracts, jobs, and minority preferences set aside for Black people to make up for Jim Crow.” (Nobody chimes in to point out how difficult it is to be a white woman in North America.)
  • LBJ’s welfare policies were a Trojan Horse because the welfare system’s incentives destroyed the two-parent Black family. We were rats in an experiment for the white liberals of the 1960s.
  • “Didn’t nobody rob my mom’s liquor store in the ‘hood because she had a cross around her neck and her right hand on a Glock.” (What would Mom think about Uncle Joe’s latest call for commonsense gun control?)

Arjun can’t be in every room 24/7, so I think that means Clubhouse needs (nay, demands) an army of well-meaning white folks who can explain to these conservatives why they ain’t Black.

(Separately, one aspect of the room that was interesting was how much better informed and thoughtful regarding policy these folks were than my friends who are in the credentialed elite (tenured professors, management consultants, etc.). Where the credentialed elite expresses hatred for Trump either for personal reasons or because Trump does not give the credentialed elite sufficient respect, the Black conservatives were interested in the Trump administration’s policies, not in the personality of Trump-the-person.)

Related:

  • First impressions of Clubhouse?
  • Interview excerpts with Denzel Washington, who is in sync to some extent with the above folks.
  • A Massachusetts Democrat on hearing about the above room: “Reminds me of the old (old) joke: The Massachusetts republican party will be meeting in the phone booth at the corner of Tremont and Clarendon this afternoon at 3 sharp.” When I told that there are 2,300 followers of the Black Conservatives club on Clubhouse, that hundreds were connected to the discussion for the 2+ hours that I listened, and that dozens spoke… “Ok, I wish them all well. I suppose it challenges the idea that blacks (et al) all think in one stereotypical way.” (who had this all-think-same “idea” other than him?)
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Medical School 2020, Year 3, Week 7 (Pediatrics)

Work starts at 8:00 am at an outpatient pediatric clinic that is a one-hour drive from the hospital. I’m the only student in the clinic. I meet the three attendings, one advanced care provider (“ACP,” typically a PA or NP), and lactation consultant) before the first scheduled office visits at 8:30 am. Two of the attendings are hot off the press, having finished their residencies a year ago. Momma Mabel had a baby in December and is back after three months off [Editor: fully paid thanks to the extra work put in by the childless.]. Her husband is a stay-at-home dad who brings the baby in during lunch. Mercedes Mike, the other new attending who drives a new SLC Roadster, and Busy Belle, a divorced pediatrician in her 50s who is booked weeks out except for two unscheduled daily sick slots. 

They have fifteen 15-minute well-child-checks (“WCC”) scheduled each day, thirteen 10-minute scheduled sick visits, and two open 10-minute sick-visit slots at the end of the day. A complicated patient, e.g., chronic headache, may be allocated two 10-minute slots. Five minutes out of the 15 are allotted for rooming. The nurse will get vitals while the physician writes up notes from the previous encounter. The physician then has either 5 or 10 minutes to see the patient without falling behind. I go in with Mabel for a 4-month-old WCC. Mabel invites me to listen to the patient’s heart and I hear an early systolic murmur. When I tell Mabel about that, after the encounter, she says “Yep, good job. That’s called a Still’s murmur. It classically is described as having a musical quality. I didn’t tell the parents because it is a benign murmur of childhood.” Mabel pumps during the one-hour lunch break as I head over to the other side of the office for lunch with Busy Belle.

Belle explains the different pay structures for primary care. Some health systems use a flat salary. “You are required to see a minimum number of patients.” Many health systems are transitioning to a relative value unit (RVU) reimbursement structure. Mercedes Mike stops by and adds: “I  considered working for another system that is completely based on RVUs. I’d get paid more per patient, but if I decided to go on vacation for two, I would get nothing. I felt this was a little nerve-wracking for me just starting out with a young family.” Another factor emerging is scorecard evaluation. “We get evaluated based upon peer performance across selected metrics, e.g., smoking cessation, weight loss.”

I shadow Belle for the remainder of the day and we’re done with patients at 4:30 and out the door at 5.

Tuesday I graduate from mere shadowing and begin to interview patients alone prior to the attending coming in. My first  interview is with the mother of a 2-year-old presenting for a two-day history of sore throat, fever, and runny nose.The kid just started daycare, and the parents took an ear temperature at 100 degrees, which means she’s technically afebrile because fever starts at 100.4. I complete a physical exam before presenting the findings to Mabel while she fills out an Epic SmartText template. Students are allowed to write notes for surgery, but not for pediatrics due to concerns about insurance reimbursement. We then both go into the room. Either I got the history wrong or the mother has changed her story. The sore throat began three days ago, not two and nasal saline rinse has been used, contradicting my report of no medications. Afterwards, Mabel completes her own physical. We send them home and recommend symptomatic management with Tylenol and ibuprofen if needed.

Our next four patients come in with sniffles or sore throat. I can’t find signs of bacterial infection. “What is your assessment?” asks Mabel.  “She has a viral pharyngitis that can be managed symptomatically. Let’s tell them to keep hydrated and make sure there are 3 or 4 wet diapers per day. Return in case of fever.” In the afternoon, I see a 6-month-old with conjunctivitis, bilateral otitis media, and pharyngitis caused by a suspected adenovirus infection. Mabel: “Notice the difference? Treatment is symptomatic, but these kids can get really sick. Tell me the serious complications of adenovirus?” She goes into the next patient while I look at UpToDate. I report that the main complication of adenovirus is pneumonia. Fifteen percent of childhood pneumonias are caused by adenovirus and myocarditis (a rare heart infection) is usually caused by certain strains of adenovirus. Finally, I report an outbreak of serotype 7 that caused a serious outbreak in 2014 with 136 (69 percent) of 198 persons with adenovirus-positive respiratory tract specimens were hospitalized, out of which 18 percent required mechanical ventilation, and 5 patients died (“Human Adenovirus Associated with Severe Respiratory Infection, Oregon, USA, 2013-2014”, Emerg Infect Dis. 2016)

After I finish a 17 year-old WCC and sports physical, my attending grabs me to come take a listen to 9-month-old twins with bronchiolitis. “Could my medical student listen?” she asks the parents. These are the sickest patients I’ve seen today and show classic signs of adenovirus: conjunctivitis, runny nose, cough and pharyngitis. I listen to their lungs and hear inspiratory crackles with an expiratory wheeze. There are no signs of dehydration, such as lack of tears while crying, poor capillary refill, poor urine output. They are not in respiratory distress, e.g., nose flaring, intercostal retractions, abdominal muscle use. We sent the family home with instructions regarding what would merit a follow-up visit.

I’m learning that most of a pediatrician’s job is educating parents on the basics: when to brush teeth, how often to breastfeed, what car seat should the child be in, how much should the baby drink, when to stop using the bottle. The format of a well child check is standardized for each age. Despite the hundreds of millions of dollars spent to install Epic, it doesn’t default to the practice’s preferred form for, e.g., a 10-year-old, when a 10-year-old patient is being seen. The efficient physician populates a custom-made SmartText for a 10 year old, and then fills out certain milestones that were filled out by the parents on paper.

Statistics for the week… Study: 5 hours. Sleep: 8 hours/night; Fun: 1 night. Example fun: best friend from college visits this weekend. He is an M3 at a different school who has already been on rotations for six months: “Third year sucks. Physicians claim that they remember third year as the best. Bullshit. It is mostly waiting around doing nothing, and yet you have no free time.” He adds: “Scary to think this is all the training we have in some areas. For example, if you don’t want to be a surgeon, you will be a practicing physician with only a few weeks of surgery experience. It wouldn’t surprise me if some physicians don’t even know how to start an IV anymore.” He is looking forward to psychiatry: “You talk to each patient for 30 minutes, chart a note during the interview. Pay for psychiatrists grew 15 percent last year. If this continues for 5 years, a psychiatrist will get paid as much as an orthopedist and get out every day at 2:00 pm.”

The rest of the book: http://fifthchance.com/MedicalSchool2020

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Shutdown favors bigger enterprises: car registration example

Here in Maskachusetts, our year-old state of emergency means that the Registry of Motor Vehicles (RMV) will see people in person only by appointment. Appointments are seldom available, however, and typically a Boston-area resident who needs to do business with the RMV will have to drive to Pittsfield, Massachusetts, more than 5 hours round trip.

While swapping our 2018 Honda Odyssey for a 2021 Honda Odyssey, the salesman told us about his recent trip to Pittsfield. He had purchased a car privately and there was no way to register it without an in-person trip. “Why don’t we have to go to Pittsfield to register this new Odyssey?” we asked. “Dealers are able to do everything online,” he explained.

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Is it double-masking or Joe Biden’s presidency that has beaten coronavirus?

From the no-longer-failing NYT:

As promised, Joe Biden has shut down the coronavirus. And, not only has he shut down coronavirus in the U.S., he’s defeated this pathogen on a planetary scale.

Should we credit the science-informed leadership of Joe Biden, Dr. Jill Biden, M.D., and Dr. Anthony Fauci, no longer told what to say by Donald Trump? Credit double-masking instead? (we can’t credit vaccines, right, because the downturn started before any significant number of folks were vaccinated)

And, if coronavirus is not, in fact, beaten, when does it start up again? (I recognize that #Science is supposed to be done retroactively, i.e., wait for the data to come in and then offer an explanation for the curve shape, but I would also be interested in 2019-style #Science in which the scientist offers a hypothesis and then tests that with later-arriving data)

If you’re confused, don’t feel bad. A medical school professor friend reminded me the other day that physicians still can’t explain why influenza is seasonal.

And, for those who are curious to know how unmasked folks in the Florida Free State are doing relative to the global average…

Compare to opposite-end-of-the-spectrum California, where 40 million people have cowered in place for an entire year:

And the never-masked never-shut South Dakotans:

What about the wicked never-masked never-shut Swedes?

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Cirrus SF50 Vision Jet impressions

A beginner jet pilot owns a Cirrus SF50 G2 and this report is based on two flights with him.

Best news first: as on the SR22, the air conditioning is awesome! This is the ultimate machine for Florida and Texas.

The visibility is great from the front and back seats, much better than in a typical bizjet. The windows are huge and the panel is compact. Cirrus media photo:

On the other hand, it is almost impossible to take pictures out of the front with an iPhone due to the fact that the autofocus system gets confused by a coating inside the windows and thinks that the subject (at infinity) is just a few inches away. Here’s the multi-function display, one of two big screens. See if you can find, amidst the clutter, how much fuel is left!

Do you care about the amps going into each battery during normal operations in which both generators are running smoothly? How about fuel? Do you care how many gallons are in each tank? If you said “I care the same about battery amps and fuel” then the Garmin G3000 is the system for you! These items are presented at the same size in the same color with the same prominence.

The automation philosophy is like nothing one would ever find outside of aviation. For example, the probe heat is limited to 5 minutes on the ground. The aircraft knows whether it is flying and should be able to guess whether it is taxiing out to fly. Why can’t the probe heat come on automatically, maybe with an annunciator, when the airplane is getting close to the runway? And then turn itself off after landing?

The airplane is ripe for Asiana 214-style confusion about who is responsible for doing what. There is an autopilot. There is an autothrottle (confusion about which was a prime cause of the Asiana 214 crash). The panel looks more or less the same, however, in the following states: (1) pilot is doing everything, (2) pilot is being given a flight director suggestion about aircraft attitude, (3) autopilot is flying, but pilot is responsible for setting engine power, (4) autopilot is flying and the magic computer systems are responsible for setting engine power. There are, of course, subtle text and graphic cues to distinguish these four modes, but they’re not strong. In the picture above, for example, we were on autothrottle, but the percent thrust meter doesn’t say anything about that.

If I were going to design a similar system, I would make the stuff for which the computer was responsible turn gray (even the PFD would mostly be gray during autopilot ops!). The fuel state would be prominently displayed while the normal-operation engine/electrical gauges would be subdued/hidden.

Vibration is minimal compared to a piston-powered aircraft or a turboprop. Noise isn’t so bad in the front with noise-canceling headsets, but our rear passenger, a Cirrus SR22 renter, said that he was “surprised” as how noisy it was sitting right under the engine. (Update: my measurements of cabin noise)

The slide-o-rama seats are awesome. If you’re used to yoga-class-for-the-old-and-fat, as in the PC-12 and all of the bizjets with pedestals, you’ll appreciate that the Vision Jet is by far the easiest jet for getting in and out of the pilot seats.

Rumor has it that a slightly heavier long-range version of the Vision Jet is in the works. At that point it is tough to understand why someone would want to buy a TBM (longer range, similar speed and altitude capability; higher price).

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