Will there be more post-war Afghan refugees than the entire pre-war population of Afghanistan?

by philg

We started the war in Afghanistan in 2001. The country’s total population then was 21.6 million (Google). The estimated 2021 population is 40 million (source). If roughly half of Afghans don’t like the current government, i.e., a similar level of political division to what we have here in the U.S., that means the potential number of refugees seeking to leave could be more than than the total number of people in Afghanistan when we invaded.

If only 20 million want to leave for political reasons, how can the refugee pool expand to 21.6 million? Let’s assume at least a small percentage of people will seek to leave for economic reasons, on top of those who don’t support the Taliban; among nations, Afghanistan is ranked #213 out of 228 in income per person (CIA). Afghans are only 1/4 as successful economically as Guatemalans, for example, whom we are told are “fleeing” poverty when they show up at our open-to-anyone-claiming-abuse southern border. (Once in the U.S., Afghans are the least likely to work of any immigrant group. See “Challenges to the economic integration of Afghan refugees in the U.S.”:

Among adults ages 18–64, Afghans have the lowest rate of employment (59%) among the comparison groups. This is due primarily to the very low rate of employment of Afghan women (46%). The latter is low regardless of how long they have been in the U.S., but it is particularly low among recent arrivals (23% among those in the U.S. for 0–5 years) and those with the lowest and highest levels of education. Further, when controlling for education, Afghan men with a college degree or higher have the lowest levels of employment.

The righteous academics who wrote the above explain why Afghan-Americans don’t work: “we hypothesise that anti-Muslim discrimination is an important unmeasured explanatory factor” (citing white Americans’ support for Donald Trump). Maybe if an Afghan wore a rainbow flag burqa, he/she/ze/they could get a job in San Francisco, despite the postulated anti-Muslim discrimination?)

Is it fair to say that the U.S. will have created a second Afghanistan by invading the first? The second Afghanistan will have the same population as 2001 Afghanistan, but it will be a virtual and distributed country of Afghans in the U.S., Europe, etc.

Here’s the beginning of a design for the rainbow flag burqa, mentioned above:

5 thoughts on “Will there be more post-war Afghan refugees than the entire pre-war population of Afghanistan?”

  1. If the enormous amount of money spent by the US occupiers in Afghanistan allowed the population to double in 20 years, it is (a) evidence for trickle down economics, that it is not “voodoo economics” as claimed by King Bush the elder, and (b) future terrorist attacks against the US were likely financed my the US DOD.

  2. > Is it fair to say that the U.S. will have created a second Afghanistan by invading the first?

    Yes. Suppose that Mx. Merkel issues another #WeHaveSpace order and takes 20 million. If the fertility rate stays the same, there are 40 million in 2040 and 80 million in 2060.

    Then, the majority in Germany would have been achieved and we could proclaim an Islamic state. No need for the rainbow burqa when we can have the real thing.

    Perhaps some progressive U.S. states could help by legalizing essential opium and boosting the Afghan economy. Perhaps people would stay.

  3. Theoretically, there are no Afghan refugees because the taliban beheads everyone trying to leave.

  5. I think from now on, when my wife starts to nag me, I will look up at the sky and say “Allah! Please send the Taliban to come and save me!!”

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