Did banking leave London after Brexit?

Expert prediction was that Brexit would destroy London’s status as a financial center. Who knows more about London and economics than the Economist? A little over one month before the herd voted (June 2016), the educated elites told them what a terrible idea it would be to vote “leave”. A May 7, 2016 article titled “City blues”:

The Economist told the rabble that employment would fall, “total British trade would fall by [more than $100 billion] per year”, and “some firms would relocate to other EU financial hubs.” (Sadly, of course, because the elites forgot to take away their right to vote, one month later the rabble voted to leave.)

“How ‘Brexit’ Could Alter London, the World’s Banker” (NYT, May 11, 2017):

a large piece of London’s banking business depends on its inclusion in the European Union. Britain is now moving to exit the union, jeopardizing its status as a leading global financial center.

At the high end of estimates, as many as 80,000 finance positions could depart over the next two years.

Brexit was January 31, 2020. Have 80,000 finance positions departed for the greener pastures of the shrunken EU? (but maybe the NYT actually meant that 80,000 jobs would be lost through May 2019?)

“‘Brexit’ Imperils London’s Claim as Banker to the Planet” (NYT, also May 11, 2017):

Many of the transactions Citigroup oversees here are dependent on Britain’s inclusion in the European Union. Italian banks tap London’s vast pools of money to strengthen tattered balance sheets. German manufacturers borrow funds for expansion. Swiss money managers ply their fortunes. Citigroup and other global banks manage much of this activity, executing trades, and ensuring that money lands where it is supposed to, leaning heavily on their London operations.

In March, Prime Minister Theresa May set in motion Britain’s pending divorce from the European Union, starting talks with Europe to resolve future dealings across the English Channel.

[How is it a “divorce“? Will the EU never have to work again because they’re going to collect so much in child support or alimony from the UK?]

“It’s the British who will lose the most,” Mr. Macron said in a pre-election interview with the global affairs magazine Monocle. “The British are making a serious mistake over the long term.”

If a rupture across the channel results, global banks like Citi stand to feel significant consequences.

Somewhere between one-fifth and one-third of London’s financial undertakings now involve clients based in Europe. Much of this business is dependent on so-called passports that give financial firms in one European Union nation permission to operate in the others. Free of a deal preserving the essentials of passport rights, many of these trades would be effectively illegal. The rules and regulatory proclivities of 27 remaining European Union nations would have to be satisfied.

Brexit, as it is known, has jeopardized London’s status as banker to the planet. London will surely retain credentials as one of the world’s most important financial centers. Yet it is likely to surrender stature to European competitors exploiting Brexit as an opportunity to capture spoils.

We’re at the precise two-year anniversary of Brexit. What actually happened to the City of London’s status as Europe’s finance capital?

An academic paper titled “Resilience in the City of London: the fate of UK financial services after Brexit” says

Brexit has had no significant impact on jobs and London has consolidated its position as the chief location for financial FDI, FinTech funding, and attracting new firms. Most unexpectedly, the City has increased its dominance in major infrastructure markets such as over-the-counter clearing of (euro-denominated) derivatives and foreign exchange—although it has lost out in the handling of repurchase agreements and share trading.