The BLS will release official CPI data tomorrow. Last month, inflation was whipped, with the index only 3 percent higher than in June 2022. From state-sponsored PBS:
(in other good news, the chocolate ration has been increased to 20 grams per week?)
Let’s look at the actual index:
Notice the strange little peak in June 2022? I am thinking that this peak might have been measurement error that made last month’s number lower than reality.
There have been a lot of wage increases lately. “Pay to Rise as Much as 40% in Deal Reached by United and Pilots” (NYT), for example. I’m a believer in the wage-price spiral (though the great Harvard economist Mankiw is quoted in Wikipedia saying that it is transitory). We’ll all be paying more for shipping soon, but it is unclear how much more: “FedEx pilots reject 30% pay hike proposal, but a strike isn’t imminent” (CNN).
During a recent trip to Pasadena, California, the Hilton front desk informed me that most of the workers might walk out on strike at any moment (see “California pol urges Taylor Swift to postpone LA concerts over hotels strike — days after attending her show” (New York Post)). In-n-Out Burger in Fisherman’s Wharf is offering $22/hour as a starting salary:
(good news for San Franciscans who previously enjoyed fentanyl in parts of the U.S. where fentanyl dealing/use is illegal: the job is open to those with “arrest and conviction records”)
The inflation rate in Berkeley is literally infinite. A paper bag that previously cost 0 cents is now 25 cents:
My guess for tomorrow’s number… 4 percent.
Readers: What are your guesses?
Lower than 3%. The trend is down and anecdotal evidence does not change that fact. The rate will be close to 2.7%. In a few months, just as the NYT stops publishing articles about the heat/drought/fires in Europe the rate will be lower than 2%. Those are my rates, if you don’t like them I have others.
I will be prepared to celebrate your sagacity if you’re right!
Speaking of fires, https://gizmodo.com/maui-wildfires-power-outage-911-service-1850721097 has a story about wildfires in Maui under a “climate change” header.
0% with -20% manufacturing deflation erasing 20% housing inflation. Emergency rate cut just around the corner.
Official Inflation numbers you have to multiply by two because the CPI is calculated with all sorts of
Meanwhile the country keeps collapsing:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/L4TaRE7AejLB/
Another train derailment. Is ButtFudge back from paternity leave?
I will split the difference between your prediction and the last number and guess 3.5%.
It took a few months for the CPI to get back to the little peak so even though I am inclined to believe in your story and the 4%, the published numbers will take a few months to get back to 4%.
In principle, I refuse mundane kind of prophecies. Future is written neither by men nor women.
But here we can use some modeling which is akin telling how present affects future. Not sure about July prices but August inflation has to come up because of bouncing gas prices reverberate through the economy.
https://www.finder.com/gas-prices
I just got a 5% raise. On top of 5.5% a year ago.
And just bought a large 5-yr Fidelity CD paying 5.5% w/ part of my windfall from a property sale.
I don’t care about the rate of inflation, just it’s cumulative affect. My grocery items all cost 30-100% more than pre-covid, and my electricity this month was 3x what I paid in 2019. Not sure how that is possible with the “official” CPI numbers.
In related news, UPS drivers just negotiated a contract that will pay drivers average $170k/yr:
https://www.autoblog.com/2023/08/09/ups-drivers-land-a-170000-a-year-contract-and-tech-workers-are-incredulous/
Anon: That is beautiful! They’ll start working at 18 instead of incurring massive amounts of student loan debt, then out-earn college graduates who call themselves smart and ruin their health by sitting at desks all day. Unless there is hyperinflation in legal salaries, they’ll out-earn lawyers who spent 7 years paying post-high-school tuition (the BLS says lawyers made about $128,000/year before the 2021-2023 inflation; see https://www.bls.gov/ooh/legal/lawyers.htm ).
(It isn’t directly comparable because I think the $170,000 is total comp, which would include the value of pension and health care, etc., but lawyers often don’t get those things because they’re solo practitioners or in very small offices.)
According to the article they make $145k now ($95k salary plus $50k benefits) and will be making $170k at the end of their latest 5 year contract. That’s barely more then 3% increase compounded annually.
Wrong again! Well, I said “close to…”
Looks like I was mostly wrong. A slight uptick in the headline rate (to 3.2%) while “core inflation” was about the same at 4.7%. If I were doing Covid science I would say that really I was talking about the average of these two numbers so I was correct to predict 4%. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/08/10/business/cpi-inflation-fed
Covid science is no longer in vogue. The new science, subject of daily reporting from the NYT (“It gives wisdom; from its printing press come knowledge and understanding” Proverbs 6:2) is the weather. As part of my subscription I now get this service:
“We’re monitoring the possibility of extreme weather in places that are important to you.
We show risk in three tiers: Some risk, there is at least some chance of extreme weather in the area; Moderate risk, it is likely that damaging weather will happen in the area; and High risk, extreme, dangerous weather is expected in the area.”
Today’s email gave me an early warning of my exposure to “excessive rain.”