How soon before the United Nations begins to rebuild Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure?

The head of the UN decries the (attempted?) destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities:

Presumably the remedy for what Trump did is for the United Nations to undo. Alternatively, maybe the UN could get the Iranians onto the Palestinian plan in which all of their day-to-day expenses (shelter, food, health care, education) are paid for by EU and US taxpayers, thus freeing Iran to spend up to 100 percent of its GDP on military activities.

Speaking of Iranians, what’s our estimate for the percentage of Iranians who are working against their government? I don’t see how it is possible for Israel and the U.S. to hit the right targets unless there are a lot of traitors inside Iran (presumably they would call themselves “patriots”, of course, but they would be traitors from the perspective of the current recognized and legitimate government of Iran).

Loosely related, here’s a fun assemblage of quotes:

Posted in War

24 thoughts on “How soon before the United Nations begins to rebuild Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure?

  1. Odd, isn’t it, that a loudmouthed and vulgar NYC real estate developer may well turn out to be the most effective American president since at least WW2?

  2. How long until a Federal district judge issues an injunction ordering Trump to replace the enriched uranium?

  3. To be fair, GBU 57 bunker bombs. which had “Iran” written on them from the beginning, and that were deployed by B2s on order of Donald Trump were designed and planned for procurement under George W. Bush administration and were actually acquired under Obama administration (doubt that Obama knew or understood what they were, based on his foreign and domestic policy). Under President Jill Biden and her autopen, Israeli and US air-forces tested long – range attacks on Iran. Bill Clinton is somewhat of an oddball here. Despite what Google wants you to believe about him, it was Bill Clinton who agreed to let Russia to build first Iranian nuclear reactor in Bushera, in pre-Putin times. But I agree, if not for Donal Trump, our “leaders” would keep chewing dirt while talking about resolve on Iran nuclear weapons and we in few years would be chewing radioactive dust.

    • You might think that making a bunker buster 3x heavier than those dropped in 1945 (when a 5x increase had been achieved over the preceding 4 years) wouldn’t be a technological leap over more than 60 years. Yet despite the evident need, the Israelis didn’t do it. It’s almost as if they wanted someone else to carry the GBU 57can.

    • Google AI says the dam busters skipping bomb (dropped in 1943) weighed 9,250 lbs. I think it is time for my Airbus A380 bomber version. In fairness to our military experts, though, maybe the theory was that we didn’t need heavy bombs or bombers because we could use nuclear weapons?

    • Large bomb would require large bomber or 100% suppression of all air defenses to be dropped from large slow visible cargo plane. Israel does not want to appear threatening to players beyond its direct threat theater. It even limited range of its python air to air missiles. until longer range air to air missiles entered service in the region. Israel had other means to destroy Iran underground facilities and said it would use it before ending current campaign. Trump wanted to lead the effort to make the point that destruction of Israel will.not be tolerated. And Iran is a global problem already. While it is immediate survival threat for Israel, nuclear ayatollah would become global survival threat if not taken care of.

    • Those are all good points. As for the bouncing bomb, the Lancs used to deliver the 12000lb (1944) bomb had to be hacked about; those used for the 22000lb (1945) bomb were specials. With little defensive kit, the raiders needed a giant fighter escort to ward off remaining serviceable Me-262s. A transport aircraft might have been used, if only the types available weren’t at best derivatives of more capable bombers, the Lancaster most of all. My sources suggest that planners realised the need for bigger conventional bunker-busters after the 1st Gulf War/dissolution of the USSR.

  4. Do not worry about the UN rebuilding Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure, Russia will be quicker than the UN. Iran is helping out Russia with drones and missiles, in return Russia will help Iran with their nuke program. Although it could be easier for Russia just to give Iran a few nukes for research and development. Iran will test the nukes on few targets in Israel, then Israel will nuke Iran. This will be a perfect opportunity for Russia to nuke Ukraine, using an excuse that Ukraine is very close to developing their own nukes. After a perfect call between Putin and TACO Trump, Ukraine and Iran will surrender unconditionally and world peace will be achieved!

  5. In all the pictures from Iran, they seem to be a mono-culture mono-race society. Why the lack of diversity? Surely diversity, not nuclear weapons, should be Iran’s #1 priority. I’ll bet if Iran (population 90M) was enriched with a few million sub-Saharan + central Asian + Palestinian “refugees”, enriching uranium would fall far down on their list of priorities.

  6. I’ve been hearing a lot of Republicans show these quotes from past presidents, as if Iran got a nuclear weapon under one of these presidents. This is not the gotcha people think it is.

    Trump indeed (maybe) got lucky in this case. Israel spent the last year taking apart Hamas, then Hezbollah, then Iran’s air defenses, and took advantage of military drills completed under Biden:

    https://www.jewishpress.com/news/middle-east/iran-news/u-s-and-israel-rehearsed-fordo-strike-in-last-years-joint-military-drill/2025/06/22/

    Once Israel had provided air supremacy, Trump found himself in the enviable position of just needing to drop a few bombs. Has there ever been an operation set up better?

    But one problem… although Trump said confidently that the Iranian’s nuclear project was “obliterated”, they don’t know if key parts of their nuclear program were still in the bunker when the bombs fell.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/us/politics/iran-uranium-stockpile-whereabouts.html?unlocked_article_code=1.RE8.XZAc.wtcC3ln6zriK&smid=url-share

    Congressman Jim Himes from the house intelligence committee says he fears that Iran took their material, then will go silent, then suddenly appear 6 months from now with fully enriched uranium.

    • This much is #Truth: As long as Joe Biden was president we never needed to worry about Corn Pop getting access to atomic bombs.

      (I do share your belief that the Iranians could rebuild their nuclear program quickly if freed from the threat of Israeli bombs. As long as Iran has an intact oil and gas industry they have the money to develop weapons. But on the other hand, Israel’s intelligence sources inside Iran don’t seem to be going away and the IAF is still overhead every night.)

  7. This isn’t the usual Green Spin on the last 25 years of Iraq & Afghanistan but the difference is of course defending the god holy land. Kind of skeptical on the level of obliteration or even if there was a facility. Terrorists these days can refine uranium in a shoe box.

  8. @philg

    any sage knowledge on the plane and the mission and the pilots?

    i ask because the regular internet juice on the B2 Spirit is adulterated.

    • m: Sorry, but I don’t know anything more than what’s on the Web. These flying wings are totally reliant on computers, of course, due to their lack of inherent stability. So I guess the Iranians should curse the Ada programmers of the 1980s (“Death to Ada”?). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ada_(programming_language)

      I wonder if Elon’s Starship will end up being used as a ballistic missile. We don’t want to use lightweight atomic weapons but we do want to create massive explosions and we don’t want to subject human pilots to risk. Starship is supposed to be able to carry 300 tons into orbit. That would be enough to hold quite a few bunker busters!

    • Soon after the bombing, I naturally wanted to learn more about the B-2 Spirit and the operation behind it. That led me to this video [1].

      While the video doesn’t reveal anything new about the B-2 itself, what struck me was how young the servicemen maintaining the aircraft are: every-single-one appears to be in their late teens or early 20s. If we can find, train, and trust such young individuals to maintain a $2 billion aircraft, surely our public schools are capable of preparing students for real-world responsibility — rather than prioritizing things like DEI and Rainbow-themed initiatives. No?

      [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEf6Huz_s0A

  9. Phil-with your aviation knowledge, let’s say
    my neighbor is a pain and I want to overfly his house with a B2 and show peace thru strength. How much to rent one for say, 1 hour?

    • Yes. See my comment above from about 30 hours ago: “I do share your belief that the Iranians could rebuild their nuclear program quickly if freed from the threat of Israeli bombs.” In general, I am skeptical about the magic of precision in warfare. I have seen no evidence that it leads to victory.

    • Seems like Trump got himself (and us!) into a tough spot:

      – Start a war with them
      – Boast that it’s totally obliterated
      – In reality, set back their program by only 3 months
      – Push everyone into a ceasefire

      What does Trump do now? Break his own ceasefire and bomb them again?

      Deny the reports and stick to the story that his bombing was perfect?

      If we assume they can continue work in hiding, do they have a bomb by labor day?

      Does this hurt his chance at winning the Nobel Peace prize?

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