What else I learned at Art Basel

A follow-up to Art Basel Miami Beach 2025 and Art Miami Miami 2025…

Here are a few miscellaneous things that I learned at an Art Basel party in Miami Beach. We’re informed that Florida real estate is collapsing (they roll 24-year-old condos into the median home price statistic and those are indeed heavily discounted now to reflect the cost of the new big 25- or 30-year inspection/rehab requirement). We were informed in 2018 by the Wall Street Journal, quoting Harvard experts, that sea level real estate in Miami was doomed… “Rising Sea Levels Reshape Miami’s Housing Market”:

“As prices decline, that’s a signal to developers and investors that maybe you shouldn’t be investing a lot of money in an area that will be flooded in 20 years,” [Ryan Lewis, an assistant professor at the University of Colorado’s Leeds School of Business] said.

How bad has the Climate Change-driven value collapse been for my friend’s sea level house? Here’s the Zillow chart (“+476% in last 10 years”; admittedly, there was a big rebuild circa 2020 and the chart isn’t adjusted for transitory Bidenflation):

A multi-billionaire attended the party and I learned that a multi-billionaire needs security goons circling in a couple of boats in case anyone decided to assault the party from the water.

From a serial entrepreneur, I learned that AI might not be the boon to venture capital that it seems. “In five years we’ll see a $1 trillion company that has just a single founder and employee,” he said. He is doing a couple of startups right now and hasn’t bothered to raise funds for either. “AI is my programming team,” he said. “Why do I need outside money if I can get to MVP [minimum viable product] and revenue without hiring anyone?”

From an artist behind some massive sculptures, including at Burning Man, I learned that Guangdong is where everyone is going for fabrication. “You send them a 3D model?” I asked. “You can send them a napkin drawing,” he responded, “and they’ll send you back a 30′-high sculpture.” Let’s stop for a moment and pay our respects to Rob Reiner:

From a retired Californian, I learned about the cost of building a decent quality 12,000 square foot house on the Pacific coast of Mexico: “It’s really cheap there,” he responded. Pushed for specifics, he added “It was quoted at $700 per square foot, but I think it will turn out to be $900 when it is all done.” (this didn’t include the land) A neighbor here in Florida just spent $500/ft on a gut-renovation. He said that new “custom” construction in Palm Beach County costs $1500/ft.