A couple of days ago, Donald Trump said that we would start doing to Iran what FDR and Truman did to Germany and Japan, i.e., attack the electric power generation that allows an enemy nation to run its weapons industry. Today, however, we learn that the U.S. is actually planning to surrender to Iran. “Trump Says U.S. Will Postpone Strikes on Iranian Energy Infrastructure” (WSJ):
President Trump said the U.S. military would postpone strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for five days following “productive” talks between Washington and Tehran.
In a Truth Social post written in all caps, Trump said the two countries had “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” Trump said that based on those discussions, which he said would continue this week, he had asked the Pentagon to hold off on energy-related strikes that he had threatened. U.S. stock indexes jumped after markets opened and Brent crude futures dropped nearly 10%.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied Tehran was in talks with the U.S., according to state media, saying there was “no dialogue” with Washington.
Earlier, Iran threatened wider attacks on infrastructure—including fuel, tech and desalination facilities—used by the U.S. in the region if its energy sites were hit. Iran also warned it would lay mines across the entire Persian Gulf if its coasts or islands were attacked. The escalation of threats came after Trump demanded at the weekend that Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz, saying in a social-media post late Saturday that the U.S. would “obliterate” Iranian power plants if the regime failed to act within 48 hours.
This wouldn’t be the first time that we’ve paid $1 trillion/year to run our military and also surrendered, but some of the above is confusing. We’ve been told that the Iranian navy was sunk and that we control the airspace over and around Iran. Boats capable of laying mines would seem to be too big to hide anywhere. How would the Iranians have the ability to “lay mines across the entire Persian Gulf” if our claims of having destroyed their navy are true? If there are a few small boats left, why can’t the planes and drones flying over the Iranian coastline find and destroy them?
There is also, of course, the obvious inconsistency of us saying that we’ve negotiated our surrender with the Iranian government and the government of Iran saying that the U.S. hasn’t yet surrendered to them.
Presumably any proposed agreement would (1) leave the current Islamic Republic officials in charge of Iran, just as they have been for 47 years, (2) leave Iran with its oil production infrastructure intact so that it can keep funding its weapons production, and (3) leave Iran with its electric power infrastructure intact so that it can keep running all of the weapons factories that it wants to run, including uranium enrichment, short-range ballistic missile (that can reach the Islamic Republic of London), and peaceful nuclear weapons factories. I can’t think of a way to summarize this other than “U.S. surrenders.” Maybe the Iranians will provide a paper promise not to build nuclear weapons or longer-range ballistic missiles, but what good would that be from a regime that has promised and sworn “Death to America”?
There is no way to learn about any U.S. military successes from reading our media (see We are being absolutely crushed by Iran (NYT)). The U.S. military itself doesn’t seem to have a lot of recent success to report. Here’s a tweet from last night that describes an attack from earlier in March:
If we are currently doing some damage to the Islamic Republic’s military capabilities shouldn’t CENTCOM be able to report more recent strikes?
Readers: What can we make of the above other than “U.S. surrenders”? And if we are forced to surrender, what is the point of paying $1 trillion/year for our military?
Phil, you are very observant. As I’ve been saying from the outset, the evil-doer Trump made a “gross miscalculation” by starting a war with the Peace-loving Islamic Republic. The fact that a grossly misfigured, one-legged, impotent leader like myself can cause America to surrender is a testament to the power of Allah. Allahu Akbar!
Mojtaba: Alhamdulillah for healing you to the point that you can lead, post on X, and comment here! Allahu Akbar, indeed! Congratulations on your victory over the Great Satan.
Grok says that “if President Trump carried out the threatened action—destroying (“obliterating”) Iran’s various power plants, starting with the biggest one—it would likely constitute war crimes under international humanitarian law (IHL).” On the other hand, Iran would retaliate by damaging infrastructure of GCC and Israel (air defense permitting) so it would all equal out on the karmic justice scale.
Gino: Iran has already launched missiles and drones at civilians and civilian infrastructure in a wide variety of nearby countries. Why would losing their electric power grid enable them to do more of what they’ve already been doing? Isn’t the limiting factor for Iran the number of missiles and drones that they have and are capable of launching?
That is right, Trump caved. He is afraid rising gas prices will hurt him in the midterms. Unsurprisingly, the threshold for pain was much higher in Iran than in the White House. The “art of the deal” president had already given his hand away when he relaxed restrictions on Iranian oil and allowed the enemy to keep selling oil and transporting it through the Strait of Hormuz.
This is a step in the right direction, but Iran will not give in so easily. Trump thinks if he stops the bombing, Iran will open up the Strait. I don’t think this will happen. Having exposed Trump’s vulnerability, Iran will try to extract as much as they can from this. They will keep the Strait open until they get reparations (or extract tolls for shipping, to pay for the damage caused).
What’s the point of paying $1 trillion/year for the military? I don’t know. Is the point of the military to use it for bullying other countries to do your bidding? You might find it strange that some countries may be willing to go the North Korean way to avoid such bullying. Or maybe the point of the military is to get countries in line to follow the international rules of trade (a system largely devised by the US)? Oh, I forgot. Trump decided to smash that too with his illegal tariffs.
As predicted in the Greenspun comment section, the power plant move was a bluff. Now Trump is describing Iran as seeking a peace deal. Suspect nieve assumptions were made about the strength of the Iranian regime after the uprisings of December. The straight of Hormuz was the Ayatollah’s unexpected ace in the hole. A ceasefire now & a return a la operation iraqi freedom in 10 years, when US is better equipped to escort tankers & deal with drones, sounds like a good idea.
Phil, a little secret I wanted to share with you (please keep it on the down low?). I’m a little late to the game today, but after a coffee or two my drug-addled brain is beginning to work. You may recall the February 27th messaging coming out of Orange Man’s friends in Oman, who said that meetings between the U.S. and Iran would would resume the following week in Vienna with “technical” groups. For reasons I’m still trying to understand, those meetings didn’t occur. I’m also told that in the past few days two new Armadas of navy vessels are headed towards Iran (one from Japan, the other from California) and set to arrive over the next two weeks. Nothing to see here because the evil trump has surrendered, I guess. Comprende?
“what is the point of paying $1 trillion/year for our military?”
It’s a very costly Jobs Program. Not military workers, per se, but large defense contractor Raytheon put bread on the table for four generations of my family. My 96 y/o grandmother is still collecting my grandfather’s Raytheon pension, and he died in 1989.
https://babylonbee.com/news/trump-postpones-iran-strikes-until-they-all-assemble-in-one-place-again-for-a-meeting
“There is no way to learn about any U.S. military successes from reading our media”
Obviously unrelated to Kegsbreath banning all non-state media from Pentagon reporting, right?