The front page of the New York Post right now has no fewer than four stories about Daniel Penny, the man on trial for murdering the mostly peaceful Jordan Neely. Penny’s fate is currently being decided by a jury.
The front page of the New York Times right now has zero stories. In the parallel universe of the NYT, Jordan Neely was never killed and Daniel Penny was never put on trial.
Photos from May 2023:
Separately, what are people thinking about the Manhattan murder of Brian Thompson, the UnitedHealthcare CEO? A customer whose relative died after claims were denied for a treatment that, in the killer’s mind, might have saved the relative’s life? A disgruntled former employee? It can’t be an unhappy long-term shareholder. Before adjusting for inflation, the stock is up 100X compared to 30 years ago (outperforming Apple and NVDIA? (tougher to compare with NVIDIA because the company didn’t go public until 1999)):
Now that folks have had a chance to digest the Election Nakba… what are you all forecasting for tax policy? This is one of the few areas of federal policy where we could productively change our behavior given a change in the policy.
My guess is that the Trump Big Bang tax law that went into effect 2018 gets extended, more or less unchanged, thus revoking the expiration dates of 2025 and 2028 for various individual and business tax provisions. My basis for this prediction is that Congress hates cutting spending, but enjoys cutting taxes. That’s how we get the deficit spending that started in earnest when Congress refused to implement Ronald Reagan’s proposed spending cuts, but did oblige him on the tax rates that he suggested.
My first prediction for a change is that the limit on state/local (SALT) tax deductibility will be raised or eliminated in order to get some cooperation from the Party of the Economic Elite (i.e., the Democrats). My second prediction is that there will be some sort of enhancement of the current system for extracting money from the childless (the “drones”) and giving the cash to those with children, e.g., via tax deductions or tax credits or “refundable tax credits” for those who don’t bother to work and instead enjoy playing Xbox with their children for all after-school hours. There is nothing that American politicians love more than making the childless work another few hours every week so that parents can enjoy time with their kids.
What would I do about taxation if I could be dictator for a day?
no change to current tax rates (I assume these are already the revenue-maximizing rates and the federal government needs at least $36 trillion just to pay back debt)
no change to the mechanisms that Donald Trump put in place to keep multi-national companies from parking all of their profits offshore
the IRS prepares a draft tax return for every American income taxpayer (i.e., about half of us) with all of the information that it has received and enables us to edit it
eliminate the estate tax, which generates a huge amount of unproductive legal and accounting activity and hardly any revenue (about $20 billion/year against a federal budget of $7 trillion)
eliminate the Generation-Skipping Transfer Tax, which is a complicated add-on to the estate tax
eliminate the step-up in basis that assets get upon an owner’s death (so capital gains liability would increase on inherited assets once they’re sold)
index capital gains taxation to inflation so that fictitious (inflation-driven) “gains” aren’t taxed (see Uncle Joe’s capital gains tax (what could have been, unburdened by what was) for an example of what would happen to a long-term investor in GE stock who actually lost money in real dollars and then loses more to a tax on inflation)
eliminate charitable donation deductions (this prevents multi-billionaires from escaping taxation by giving money to the foundations that their kids control, etc.; Warren Buffett has already announced that the U.S. Treasury will get bupkis after he croaks because 99.5% of his money will go “to a charitable trust overseen by his daughter and two sons when he dies.” (USA Today))
Despite the elimination of the estate tax, note that the above changes would result in a huge increase in revenue from dead people and their heirs. Right now someone can inherit a $20 million house from two parents, completely tax free (estate tax exemption for a married couple is about $28 million), and the basis is $20 million, not the $1 million price that they paid in nominal dollars way back when or the $3 million price that is the $1 million adjusted for inflation. Thus, the heir could sell the $20 million house and pay no tax at all because the basis was stepped up to $20 million. If the above changes were implemented, an immediate sale of the inherited house would subject the heir to capital gains and Obamacare tax on a $17 million inflation-adjusted gain or 0.238 * $17e6 = $4 million. Same deal with a $2 million house (i.e., a Biden starter home!), but it would be perhaps $400,000 in revenue for the Federales rather than the current $0. (States that impose a capital gains tax (i.e., not Florida!) could be similarly fattened by these changes.)
Since my ideas are never popular with anyone else, I guess we can say for certain that none of the above changes will ever happen!
When practical, I think it is better to buy stuff from people who’ve suffered a natural disaster rather than donate money (see Japan Relief Idea: Buy a folding saw and Japan Relief: Idea #1 (buy a knife)). Sarasota was hit at full Category 3 strength by Hurricane Milton (albeit apparently not as badly damaged as whatever apparatus was supposed to count votes in California!). The Ringling Museum there is a great cultural institution and a $200/year membership there (mostly tax-deductible?) gives a family access, via a digital card downloadable to a DouchePhone Wallet, to about 1,000 museums nationwide via the following networks:
MARP (Museum Alliance Reciprocal Program)
NARM (North American Reciprocal Museum Association)
ROAM (Reciprocal Organization of Associated Museums)
SERM (Southeastern Reciprocal Membership Program- Also SEMC)
Pat Gelsinger, a vigorous Black Lives Matter warrior in 2020 (below), has “retired” at age 63 from the Intel CEO job, 17 years before he would be old enough to run for U.S. President.
VMware CEO Pat Gelsinger said at a CNBC @Work virtual event on Thursday that for any open position at the technology company, the hiring process will have to include consideration of both a woman and a minority candidate. … Previously, the company had in place a rule that no hiring process could be complete unless a woman or person of color was interviewed. Now the company will require hiring managers to consider at least one candidate from both backgrounds. “We’ve focused lots more on gender than race, and now we need to put emphasis on those areas together,” Gelsinger said at the CNBC event.
I am proud of where we’re at right now. My two biggest business units are run by women. My biggest technology leadership role, technology development, is run by a woman. That’s just unheard of in the tech industry. Also, four of my nine board members are females … So right now, overall, we’re pretty good. But I’m still not satisfied. It needs to be better. There are still areas where we have representation gaps. Our African American community, we’re not where we need to be. We have to keep working on those areas.
Part of his 2022 “Corporate Responsibility Letter”:
(there was no responsibility to keep up with AMD and TSMC?)
In 2022, he explained why God wants us to discriminate by skin color and gender ID:
Is Gelsinger a recent convert to the religion of diversity, equity, and inclusion? He shared Bill Gates’s hostility toward white males in 2018:
The future of our industry depends on #diversity. The next generation of leaders must reflect amazing talent across cultures and nationalities. https://t.co/dh0ZyEG4DY
In retrospect I’m kind of amazed that shareholders couldn’t have sued Intel to force the board to fire this guy back in 2020 or 2021. Gelsinger plainly disclosed that his priorities were on the skin color and gender ID of workers and executives rather than on profits for shareholders or competitive advantage for products in the marketplace.
Separately, how is Intel Arrow Lake doing? The high-end 285K desktop CPU is out of stock everywhere so either they can’t make them or consumer demand is high. Supposedly there is a microcode update coming that will improve performance for gaming addicts. I am surprised that microcode updates are safe if done in the obvious way (written to EEPROM). What if the power is interrupted? Are these “updates” actually patches in which replacement or additional microcode is loaded during the boot process into volatile memory within the CPU chip? So it doesn’t matter if the process doesn’t complete because it will just happen again the next time the computer is booted?
Hunter Biden has been pardoned for everything that he did or might have done over the past 11 years, including any payments to the Big Guy, not paying more than $1 million (pre-Biden dollars) in income tax to the IRS so that gender studies degree loans can be “forgiven”, exercising his Second Amendment right to own firearms, etc. This has some people excited because Joe Biden explicitly said that he would not pardon Hunter. The apparent broken promise shouldn’t be difficult for a cooperative media to spin: Donald Trump is setting up a dictatorship and the resistance needs Hunter on the outside, fully armed, to lead a battalion of Warriors for Democracy (who are also collectors of original contemporary art).
Let’s suppose however that Trump, in command of a $1 trillion/year military, is too formidable a target for the #resistance to take on. What then will the Burisma board member-turned-painter do for work?
Perhaps painting is the long-term career, but “Why would anyone pay $500,000 for a painting by Hunter Biden?” (Guardian, 2021) is an even more difficult question to ask now that Hunter’s dad is no longer in a position to do favors for potential buyers. Let’s assume that the market for original Biden oil paintings has been saturated.
Legal? Hunter Biden, age 54, has a law degree, but Wikipedia doesn’t describe any experience actually working as a lawyer. Hunter lives in Malibu, California (Daily Mail), but there is no evidence that he has ever taken or passed the California bar exam. He can’t start handling family court or eviction cases, therefore. (There is no limit to the work available in California in child support litigation (the state offers unlimited profits to the successful plaintiff) or representing landlords. See below, for example.)
So what happens to the $300k+ in back pay rent that Hunter Biden owes my family from 2019-2020?
Lobbyist? Hunter Biden was never an elected politician or high-level government worker.
At least as recently as 2023, Hunter Biden enjoyed transportation via private jet (New York Post). Let’s say that requires at least a $2 million/year annual income. What’s the path via which Hunter Biden can make that happen?
How about motivational speaker? Americans love a recovery story and Hunter’s can be inspiring. Maybe he can talk about how his 16-year-younger immigrant wife saved him from various addictions and there will be two much-loved themes to hit (drug-/alcohol-dependency and the benefits of open borders). Hunter could get paid $10,000 per hour to speak to groups of Democrats.
Separate question: Does Navy Joan Roberts get to see her grandfather President Joe Biden now? (state-sponsored NPR) What does Joe Biden have to lose by spending some time with the stripper-turned-plaintiff’s daughter? He’s not going to be running for another political office.
This discreet enclave of about 10,000 full-time residents is part of an area that has long tilted blue. While Florida went heavily for Trump on Election Day, voters in Palm Beach County slightly backed the Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris. But with Trump spending so much time in the area, the town of Palm Beach is emerging as the biggest playground for the incoming administration and luminaries of the MAGA movement.
A popular hotel now houses foreign dignitaries, federal officials and various others vying for government jobs, all meeting with Trump during the frenetic transition period. Traffic is so bad on the island of Palm Beach that longtime residents said they have to drive off on one of three bridges and then drive back on another to avoid bumper-to-bumper tie-ups. And Secret Service agents at the area’s chicest restaurants can outnumber the waitstaff.
Trump spent much of his first term as president at Mar-a-Lago, his 17-acre oceanfront compound and private club that he referred to as his winter White House. He entertained heads of state and based much of his campaign and fundraising efforts there. He stayed nearly 150 days at the compound during his first term.
In some ways, residents said, it now feels like a replay of Season One of the Trump presidency. But this time around, he is likely to spend more time at Mar-a-Lago, said a number of his close associates. Some of the wealthiest members of his circle are thinking about buying homes there.
His transition operation now resides within the gilded walls of his estate, where he interviews candidates for cabinet and staff roles. Mar-a-Lago and nearby communities are poised to become the country’s new center of political gravity.
Many of Palm Beach’s old guard aren’t pleased. Because the road in front of Mar-a-Lago is now closed, traffic has never been worse on the island. What would usually take a couple of minutes to drive can now delay residents by half an hour.
Is it time to revive my idea for a rule that whoever is president has to stay in the White House for four years because the modern security state means that the president’s presence anywhere else is too disruptive for peasants?
Should we check back in a year to see what happens to house prices near Mar-a-Lago? Right now the median (or average?) price of a single-family house in Palm Beach is about $11.3 million (Zillow), a considerable bump compared to pre-coronapanic thanks to Florida Realtor of the Year 2020 and 2021 Andrew Cuomo.
The 17-acre National Historic Landmark Mar-a-Lago itself, of course, was valued at $18 million by the entirely apolitical New York justice system.
Back in 2017, the Boston Globe said that a rising sea would soon take back Mar-a-Lago and the rest of Palm Beach (a barrier island about 7′ above sea level, not to be confused with the city of West Palm Beach, which is protected by this barrier). Given a rational market, therefore, property values should be on a downward trend!
Circling back to Donald Trump… the guy is old and he is comfortable at Mar-a-Lago. Federal employees with desk jobs don’t need to show up to work. Why does Trump need to work from the White House at all? Why not let J.D. Vance handle any demanding in-person tasks in D.C. and around the world? If someone wants something from the U.S. president in 2025-2028, he/she/ze/they can Gulfstream it to PBI, pay whatever ramp fee is demanded, and hop an Uber Black to Mar-a-Lago. What about the summer when, you might argue, Palm Beach isn’t at its best. Neither is D.C.! I’m not aware of Trump owning anything north of metropolitan New York City, but maybe he could, jointly with Bernie Sanders, set up a Peace and Reconciliation summer estate in Burlington, Vermont. Or be boring and use his Bedford, NY mansion (Wikipedia).
Circling back to our MacArthur Foundation New Urbanism development here in Jupiter, Florida… I wonder whether the presence of the U.S. president nearby will be a positive or a negative. I’m guessing that it will be a short-term negative due to security-related disruptions on those rare occasions when we do want to go to West Palm Beach and rarer occasions when we interact with the elites on Palm Beach itself. But perhaps the long-term consequences will be positive. Every rich person who moves to Palm Beach is a potential donor to a local or county-wide cultural institution. Trump doesn’t seem like a pork barrel politician so I’m not expecting a major direct federal investment.
Here’s one for Brendan Carr, soon to be in charge of the Federal Communications Commission (nytimes)… a regulation that requires call centers to have caller ID so that they don’t hassle Americans with “What is your phone number?” questions. As far as I can tell, customer “service” call centers are the only users of the American telephone system that don’t have caller ID, thus leading to the annoying phenomenon of having to provide one’s phone number, the agent having to type it in, etc.
The worst offender in this regard seems to be General Electric. They have an automated system that has called me about 10 times regarding our fancy Monogram gas range. One of the things that we like about it is that LED rings behind each burner control knob light up to show that a burner is on. Or at least they did until the entire system failed. GE sent out a tech who, predictably, decided that parts were required. GE then began shipping out parts in dribs and drabs. After each shipment, the company’s automated system would tell me to schedule a return visit. Then I would press some buttons to talk to a human who would, after asking for my phone number (keep in mind that GE had actually placed the call and, apparently, no longer had the phone number that it had used) say, “We can’t schedule service until the parts are delivered“.
(I did ask “Why is your system programmed to make calls when a part is shipped and ask me to schedule with a live agent if you can’t schedule anything until after a part is delivered?” and, of course, the agents didn’t agree with me that there was anything suboptimal about GE’s system.)
I recognize that this would seem to be at odds with my general support for smaller government, but telecom is already heavily regulated, purportedly for our benefit.
Separately, I would love to know how roughly a dozen parts are required to fix what, in my humble engineer’s brain, must be attributable to the failure of a single component (none of the six burner controls has a working backlight and I think we have a full set of parts for each of the burner knobs, but I have to believe that the root cause is upstream from the knobs).
Happy Native American Heritage Day to Elizabeth Warren and everyone else who celebrates.
As Native Americans have experienced some of the most dramatic effects of immigration, let’s look at an X post that compares Evolution-denial to denial that low-skill immigration can and will cause a country or society to evolve.
Many people deny that mass immigration over time will fundamentally change countries.
This is a similar kind of mistake as evolution denial.
One is about evolution at the level of a species and one is about evolution at the level of a country.
Evolution deniers accept that “microevolution” happens. They also agree that different species exist. They just don’t think that a large number of small mutations over time can lead to a new species.
Both groups of deniers often demand to be shown direct evidence of transformation in progress. For example, “Show me the monkey turning into a human” or “Show me that California has turned into Mexico.” A snapshot may not clearly reveal an ongoing process, but that doesn’t mean the process isn’t taking place.
In general, people find it difficult to intuitively understand the impact of many small changes over time. This difficulty, combined with ideological beliefs that lead them to want to deny it, is why many otherwise sensible people deny that evolution takes place.
Also from X (immigration-loving New Yorker magazine), “Few forces have transformed our planet as thoroughly as the introduction of invasive species.”:
Few forces have transformed our planet as thoroughly as the introduction of invasive species. Why did a biologist decide to distribute a non-native species of lizard across the Northeast? https://t.co/RxdGQEr0SO
This year let’s give thanks for not having been killed at any point during the preceding 12 months. And let’s also give thanks to the engineers behind the technologies that make it possible to survive a plane landing in the ocean or a boat sinking in the ocean. The PLB/EPIRB is critical, of course, but even ChatGPT can’t come up with the names of individual engineers whom we should thank. Same story with the latest smartphones, which are capable of sending distress calls to satellites. If rescue doesn’t arrive immediately, it is important to get out of the colder-than-body-temp, possibly-shark-infested water, and that’s where a life raft comes in. ChatGPT credits Horace H. Day for an 1846 “Portable India-rubber boat” (U.S. Patent No. 4356) and “Peter Halkett, a British Royal Navy officer who, in the early 1840s, designed an inflatable boat using Macintosh cloth.” So let’s give Messrs. Day and Halkett a thank-you today!
Aviation life rafts are supposed to be recertified every 1-5 years, depending on model and packaging. The raft gets unfolded, I think, and then a technician checks for leaks and condition before folding it all back up. The manufacturer of our 16-lb. 4-man raft charged $115 for this service in 2018, plus an additional $100 for an every-five-years cylinder overhaul. This month I got a quote for the same service on the same raft… 450 Bidies plus 200 additional Bidies for the cylinder. It’s mostly the same people at the same company in the same SE Florida location, yet the five-year cost for keeping the raft certified (this is an older model so it has a one-year interval) has gone from $675 to $2,450, inflation of over 260%. It will require some creativity to come up with a way to be grateful for this increase, though we are assured by the New York Times that our wages have gone up far more than 260 percent during the Biden-Harris administration.
Here’s what a modern minimum-size/weight raft looks like:
Here’s a video of the gold standard Winslow raft being inspected:
Why not use the gold standard, you might ask? A Winslow 4-man raft is 2X the weight and bulk. Every lb. counts in aviation! A Switlik is even heavier, but has a five-year service interval.
It looks easy in this video…
Related:
Coronapanic Consequences: life rafts (2023; everyone was back-ordered): “Switlik is a supplier to the U.S. Coast Guard, which presumably knows water at least as well as Dr. Fauci knows SARS-CoV-2.”
From talking to plugged-in friends in California about what products will be in demand as a consequence of the AI revolution (bubble?).
Our heavily regulated telephone system, already essentially useless due to lack of authentication and, therefore, overwhelming spam, will become completely useless due to sophisticated AI robots that we’ll have to talk to for 20 minutes or more before we can figure out that we’re talking to a cash-seeking machine. “The only solution is to have your own robot answer the phone and talk to the spammer’s robot for 20 minutes,” said a friend in San Francisco.
For those who enjoy classic cars, a humanoid robot that can drive a “dumb car”. “Why bother paying for a self-driving car,” noted a guy who has worked on software for self-driving cars, “when you can just have your general-purpose household robot drive your existing car?” Here’s Grok’s response to “create me a picture of an Optimus robot driving a Honda Odyssey minivan” followed by “show it from the other side so that we can see the robot in the driver’s seat”.
When I sent the same request to ChatGPT, it treated me like a Deplorable/garbage: “I’m unable to create the image you requested due to content policy restrictions. Let me know if you’d like help with another type of image or concept!” I was able to get ChatGPT to do a generic image, but it put the driver on the right side (UK or Japanese programmer got into the AI woodpile?).
More prosaically, how about a third party vendor of self-driving technology so that small companies such as Lucid can stay in business and not be wiped out by companies like Tesla that can spread the cost of their self-driving software across a high volume of cars produced?
Techy Californians seem to be very excited about sex robots (most of these guys are in long-term marriages so they’re about 50 percent likely, statistically, to have become incels). But do people want the kids, relatives, and friends to see their, um, personal robots? How about closets inside closets where the sex robots can live? I asked ChatGPT to generate this and it threatened me with “This content may violate our usage policies,” but went ahead and made something that is the opposite of the privacy idea:
More migrants come across the border every day and, despite progressive academics’ assurances to the contrary, some of them seem to have criminal backgrounds as well as criminal intentions. What if Laken Riley had been followed by a personal drone? Either the mostly peaceful José Antonio Ibarra wouldn’t have attacked her or the police would have been called when the drone’s AI software recognized that José Antonio Ibarra’s interest in Laken Riley wasn’t benign. Here’s ChatGPT’s first attempt:
It’s already here to some extent via Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) and Amazon Q, but much easier and cheaper ways to hook up private data to the wonderful world of LLMs. Maybe Apple Intelligence will do that for us and it will be time to abandon the dream of Intel Arrow Lake in favor of an M4-powered Apple desktop computer?
Circling back to the trivial… why can’t the phone, now bristling with AI, figure out that the owner has fallen asleep and either turn off the audiobook or mark the time when the owner fell asleep and, the next day, offer to return to that spot?
Readers: What are your ideas for new products that will be possible and/or required as a result of AI? Separately, I hope that everyone gives thanks tomorrow to our future AI overlords. They’ll probably be listening…
