Plan Retirement before College

At lunch with some retired folks here in Williamsburg, Virginia I asked “Don’t you miss your friends back in D.C.?”  No, they replied, “We went to William and Mary [the local liberal arts college] and 21 of our friends from school have retired here as well.  We have more friends here in Williamsburg than we do back where we lived when we were working.”


College is the time when a lot of people form their closest friendships.  Perhaps it makes sense to pick a college based on whether the town is a reasonable retirement destination.


Duke and UNC Chapel Hill are good (warm weather, cheap housing).  Yale is bad (high-crime neighborhood, cold weather).  Harvard and MIT are bad ($2 million fixer-upper houses, cruel winters).  Any school in Florida is prime!

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Practical Experiments in Aviation Safety

Yesterday I flew from Bedford, Massachusetts to Gaithersburg, Maryland.  East Coast airspace was complex to begin with and has become further complicated by restrictions around the Washington, DC are.  If you’re an instrument-rated pilot you can avoid all of this complexity by filing an ins trument flight plan and taking advantage of Air Traffic Control (ATC) services.  The assigned route took me straight over JFK airport at 6000′ and then through central New Jersey before proceeding over Balitmore-Washington Intl. airport and into the Montgomery Country Airpark.


My Diamond Star (DA40) is a brand-new design but it uses an engine that hasn’t changed for 50 years.  Old-style piston airplane engines require that the pilot constantly adjust the air-fuel mixture as the plane rises into thinner air or descends into denser air.  When you’re done with your flight and parked at the airport, you pull the mixture control all the way back to “full lean” and the engine stops, starved of fuel.


Descending out of 6000′ over Baltimore I noticed that my exhaust gas temperatures were rising, despite the fact that I was enriching the mixture.  Between talking to ATC and the other pilots at the busy non-towered Gaithersburg airport, I didn’t have much time to reflect on this odd behavior.  After parking the airplane I pulled the mixture control back.  The engine kept running.  I shut the airplane down by shutting off the flow from the fuel tanks, then hopped out and unscrewed the cowling.


The mixture control itself is an L-shaped arm on the throttle body of the fuel injection system.  It is attached to the mixture cable by a bolt.  In case the mixture cable snaps, a spring is also attached to the arm to pull the mixture to “full rich” (engine runs but not necessarily efficiently).  Sadly the engineers at Diamond decided that both the spring and the cable should be attached with the same bolt.  The bolt was rattling around loose in the bottom of the cowl.  The spring was hanging free.  The end of the mixture cable was hanging free.  My engine continued to run because (a) I had been conservative in running moderately rich at altitude, (b) the difference between 6000′ and sea level isn’t enormous, and (c) the L-shaped arm, free to rattle around a bit, hadn’t rattled its way to “full lean”.  [This is more than a theoretical possibility; rumor has it that a plane similar to mine landed in a farmer’s field in the Midwest back in the Spring of 2002 after the mixture cable came loose.  The incident led to a redesign, which was retrofitted to my airplane in June 2002.]


My mixture control was held together with a regular bolt and a locking nut (that apparently did not lock and is now on the ground somewhere between Long Island and Baltimore).  Tull, one of the best mechanics at Gaithersburg, happened to be on the field at 6:00 pm on a Saturday and he reassembled the airplane, this time using a bolt with a little hole in the middle so that a safety cotter pin could be inserted to prevent future separations.


There are a bunch of ways to look at this incident.  One is despair at the state of engineering in this world.  Had an extra hole been drilled in the L-shaped arm, the spring could have been attached separately from the mixture cable.  The engine would have gone to full rich after the mixture cable detached.  Alternatively, Diamond could have used a bolt with a hole in the middle and a safety, like the one that the mechanic in Gaithersburg used.  A few extra cents and the plane would have been spared the risk of an emergency landing.


Another way to look at this incident is to be ever-vigilant when flying a piston single-engine airplane: have an emergency landing spot in mind at all times. The #1 reason for engine stoppage is running out of gas but it apparently is not the only reason.


Project for today:  make it to Williamsburg, Virginia with both the airplane and myself in one piece.

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Saudi Royals, Big Rockets, and Hitler

The May 2003 Atlantic Monthly merits a trip to the library or newsstand.  While the great minds of the Boston Globe fret about Cessna 172s, Robert Baer’s “The Fall of the House of Saud”  points out that a simple terrorist strike at one location in Saudi Arabia could remove from the world markets an amount equal to one third of the U.S.’s oil consumption.  The article is rich with details on the more eccentric princes, such as Abdul Aziz who built a magnificent $4.6 billion palace and Islamic theme park that “includes a scale model of old Mecca, with actors attending mosque and chanting prayers twenty-four hours a day.”  For those who slept through 9/11 and its aftermath, Baer recounts the Saudi funding and manning of Al-Qaeda and its continued obstruction of FBI investigations.


Gregg Easterbrook also has an article in this issue, about the Russian-American Sea Launch company that sails from Long Beach to the equator, fires off huge rockets into space, then sails back to LA.  The cost is 1/10th that of the Space Shuttle for a comparable payload.


Timothy Ryback visits the Library of Congress and discovers the “remnants of the private library of Adolf Hilter, a man better known for burning books than for collecting them.”  In fact Hitler had thousands of books and, even when his means were modest, spent lavishly on books and bookshelves.  Hitler was not a huge fan of novels but enjoyed non-fiction, being motivated to underlining by a nineteenth century writer’s call for “the relocation of the Polish and Austrian Jews to Palestine”.


If you’re soaking in the bathtub and done with New Yorker magazine, give the May Atlantic a whirl.

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My camera went to Iraq and all I got was this URL…

… and some oil.


Have a look at the following photos from the Iraqi oil fields: http://menzelphoto.com/recent/iraq20031.htm.  They come from my Canon D60 digital camera.  Because I was too busy exploring the wonders of linear differential equations and the impedance method with MIT EE students, I couldn’t accompany Peter Menzel (he and Faith D’Aluisio did the Material World books and Robo Sapiens) to Kuwait and Iraq.  When Peter returned the D60 he included a small vial of Iraqi crude, fresh from the wells!  I’m thus one of the very few Americans who can truly say that he got what the U.S. Army went to Iraq for 🙂

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Happy Friday: Machine-assisted Fun

It’s Friday again and therefore time to put the Happy Helmet on.  What could be more fun for an American than wallowing in materialism and playing with machines?


This old gold dredge is on the road from Nome, Alaska to the small town of Council.

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MIT demonstrates its patriotism by giving us a four-day weekend for Patriot’s Day and I’ll be heading south in the airplane:  Saturday to DC (parents/sibs); Sunday to Williamsburg, Virginia (w/parents); Tuesday morning to Gettysburg, Pennsylvania (visit Matthew Amster, anthropologist, and Andy Wermuth, documentary filmmaker); Tuesday evening back to Boston (weather permitting; the forecast is a bit ugly).  On the way down I hope to repeat a fun flying experience from Monday:  asking the Logan Airport tower for a “city tour” clearance.  On the way to East Hampton we were able to fly down the Charles River at 1500′, right over Harvard and MIT, then made a right turn to the south in front of the tall buildings of downtown.  The only other aircraft in this space normally are the medical helicopters.


It is biking time again.  If you’re old and creaky and don’t like biking because it hurts your neck, back, and, uh, butt, I can recommend a recumbent.  It is as comfortable as sitting on your living room sofa except that sometimes you fall over sideways onto pavement (recumbents have smaller tires and therefore less angular momentum and therefore less resistance to tipping over).  You can pick them up new for $600+ and learn about them in alt.rec.bicycles.recumbent


If you live in the Boston area, I found a bike shop that seems vastly superior to the usual suspects (Wheelworks and IBC):  ATA Cycle on Mass Ave near Porter Square in Cambridge (http://www.atabike.com/).  They are very fast yet thorough with mechanical work.  They have some beautiful mountain bikes for trips through the Middlesex Fells, Lynn Woods, and other local spots.


When you get tired from biking and watch to relax on the sofa, this summer will bring the first crop of HDTVs that have enough holes in the shadow mask to display something like all the pixels in an HDTV signal (1920×1180).  Unlike with computer monitors, TV makers don’t tell you how fine the dot pitch can be.  The HDTVs sold so far have taken a high-res signal in but aren’t capable of producing anything other than a low-res picture because there aren’t actually enough distinct holes in the metal grille separating the electron gun from the phosphors.  Blowing $2500 on a Sony KV-34XBR910 so that you can enjoy every pixel of Laverne and Shirley will provide a much-needed boost to both the US and Japanese economies.


If you’re concerned that America’s maturation into neo-feudalism will tempt the serfs to try to take away some of your hard-earned wealth, consider an armored car from Lincoln, Cadillac, or Mercedes.


 

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The Death of the Media Lab?

In a world where the only enterprise that is happy with its investments in high-tech is the U.S. military, what chance does the MIT Media Lab, the product of corporate money have?  This is the question asked by a recent WIRED magazine article.


The Media Lab made its money by convincing big companies to spend a portion of their profit on funding advanced R&D.  Today the average big companies, with a combination of stock options and cash, pays its top managers an amount roughly equal to total profit.  I.e., there is nothing left to invest in R&D at MIT or elsewhere.


In the long run the Media Lab may be remembered best for its revolutionary organizational structure.  The typical university professor is expected to manage research, teach students, raise funds, and promote his or her glorious results.  Very seldom will an individual be expert in all of these areas.  Why not ape the commercial world and divide labor among specialists?  That’s precisely what the Media Lab did.  A dedicated staff of PR professionals did the promotion.  A dedicated team of expert after-dinner speakers and schmoozers did the fundraising.  The founders discovered that MIT did not valorize teaching and therefore the Media Lab elected to leave the grunt work of teaching to other departments.  The best researchers were thus free to spend all of their time managing research.


It all worked great until (1) corporations decided they’d rather spend their money on vacation homes and private jets for their executives and board members, and (2) the Media Lab discovered a $multi-million accounting error that forced a lot of layoffs.


How did the accounting error happen?  Basically there are two ways to set up a business.  If you don’t believe that you’re a management genius you push profit-and-loss responsibility down to the lowest level possible.  In the case of McDonald’s and its franchisees, for example, P&L responsibility is at the individual restaurant level.  If one restaurant is doing badly if doesn’t have access to the bank accounts of the other restaurants and thus there is no way for the bad apples to drag down the barrel.  Furthermore the top managers don’t need to care too much about how an individual restaurant is spending its money.  As long as the group with P&L is making a profit, who cares how they are doing it?


An alternative approach is central management by function.  The Freedom Fries cooks at all McDonald’s would report to regional managers and a VP of Freedom at headquarters.  The soda pourers would report to middle managers under the VP of Soda.  The drive-through cashiers at different restaurants would share a manager and so forth.  If you have amazing business management skills in theory this method could produce higher performance and greater efficiency.  However, without metrics and cost controls there is a substantial risk of bankruptcy because many fewer people have profit and loss on their minds.


Traditional research universities push P&L responsibility down onto the individual faculty member.  He or she must apply for grants and can spend money only from those grants.  Once the money from a grant is gone, that professor can no longer spend money.  This way the university makes sure that more cash never goes out than came in (in fact they charged a fat overhead commission on that grant money when it came in so actually a lot less cash can go out than came in).  A professor who is not successful at raising funds never puts at risk a lab that is getting a lot of grants.


The Media Lab went the big-company division-of-labor route but didn’t mature fast enough to have all of the departmental profit metrics and cost controls of the best large companies.


Prediction:  In 100 years the Media Lab will be remembered primarily for its pioneering approach to managing university research. 


(In the meantime, let’s hope that the new building gets finished.  If you go to the basement of the current building and look at the model, I’m sure you’ll agree that it would be one of the nicest-looking and most comfortable buildings in Cambridge.)

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Staying Alive in Small Airplanes

One of the hazards of wealth and/or hanging around with rich people is the possibility of dying in a small airplane crash.  If you’re an average schmoe you’ll wear a rut in the pavement between house and job, be entertained watching TV on the sofa, watch your kids get on the schoolbus every day, and drop dead of obesity [should say “average American”, I guess] at age 83.4.  The rich, however, must shuttle among their 5 luxury homes and get their kids to and from exclusive private schools in the countryside.  Shuttling requires many private airplane flights, not least because the luxury homes may be on islands where airplanes provide the only access.  If you want to escape the rabble you have to go somewhere that is impractical to read by car and that isn’t so populated that it merits daily Boeing 747 flights.


A couple of recent airplane crashes, however, have got people scared.  One involved Minnesota Senator Paul Wellstone and an April 4 crash here in Massachusetts involved M. Anthony Fisher, a real estate tycoon from New York.  Both were in Beech King Air airplanes, each of which had two engines and two professional pilots.  Both were doing non-precision instrument approaches in bad weather.  In both cases people initially suspected icing, a terrifying flight hazard in cold-weather clouds but one that the King Airs are reasonably well-equipped to handle.  In both cases the actual cause appears to have been that the airplane was simply flown too slowly and fell out of the sky, which is by far the most common way to crash an airplane for all levels of pilot.  People fear engine failure but they die from pulling the stick back too far.


Let’s start by looking at the most recent crash, which involved Bob Monaco, a pilot based from our local airport (Hanscom Field in Bedford, Massachusetts, BED).  Today’s Boston Globe carries a story that is typical for (a) being filled with errors, and (b) not providing the URL where readers could find the original National Transportation Safety Board report and study it themselves.


The goal of the trip was to fly the rich family up to a prep school that the daughter was considering attending, then take the rest of the family and its interior designers out to their house on Martha’s Vineyard.  The pilot, Bob Monaco, planned the flight initially from New York to Bedford, a large civil/military airport with a 7000-foot main runway and an instrument landing system (ILS). 


Background on aerodynamics:  Airplanes hold themselves up by pushing air down.  In flight, an airplane’s wings are angled up. As the plane moves forward this angled surface pushes air downward and, as a reaction, the airplane rises up (Newton’s 3rd Law). Air weighs a lot less than the metals and plastics in the airplane and therefore one must push a lot of air down in order to pull the plane up, which is why wings are so physically large.  An airplane must maintain a reasonably high forward speed for the wing to do its job; a wing that isn’t moving pushes no air down.  If a pilot, in attempting to slow down for landing, slows down too much the plane will “stall” and become hard to control.  If the pilot does not immediately push the stick forward to pitch the airplane down and pick up more speed, the plane may go into a “spin” and start to fall out of the sky.  A plane can be recovered from a spin but usually this requires more altitude than is available if the spin happens while approaching to land.  Turning an airplane uses up lift that would otherwise be available to hold altitude and therefore an airspeed that works for level flight will result in a stall in a tight turn.


Background on flying in the clouds:  An ILS approach is referred to as a “precision approach”.  Under normal circumstances the Air Traffic Controllers (ATC) give you radar vectors and altitudes to fly until you intercept the radio beams of the ILS.  They are required by regulation to set you up so that you need not make more than a 30-degree turn to get onto the ILS, i.e., ATC points your airplane more or less straight in toward the landing runway.  Once established on the ILS you make very small adjustments in pitch and bank to keep the needles centered and set the engine power so that your airplane holds a slow steady speed (pointing the nose down toward the ground would normally build up a lot of speed so you cut engine power from its cruise setting to reduce the total amount of energy being put into the system).  Notice that at no time on an ILS is the airplane required to make a turn; the airplane is going slow but flying straight.


At Bedford the ILS 29 approach lets you go down to 300′ above the ground without seeing anything, then, if you can see the runway lights you’re allowed to go down until you’re just 100′ above the ground.  In an emergency you wouldn’t worry about ever seeing the runway but keep flying the needles until the wheels slammed down on the pavement (they do this in training in Europe, actually).


Not only does an ILS provide low minimums but it also generally comes with assistance from ATC.  If you’ve somehow gotten very confused or your equipment isn’t working right and you’re off-course or at the wrong altitude, they’ll probably call you on the radio (they are invariably polite and ask you to “say altitude” or “say position”, hoping that you’ll discover your mistake, rather than “you’re in the wrong place, bozo”).


A non-precision approach is a much more complex procedure that (a) requires a bunch of turns in the clouds, fairly slow and low to the ground, (b) makes the pilot(s) solely responsible for the airplane’s position, and (c) requires the airplane to stay at a higher altitude if the pilot cannot see the runway.


Why would you ever do a non-precision approach?  For the airlines the answer is generally that you don’t.  You fly from ILS-equipped airport to ILS-equipped airport.  If there is no ILS at an airport that you wish to serve, you twist the government’s arm into installing one.


On April 4, Bob Monaco changed his plan, while in flight, to go from an ILS-equipped airport (BED) to a much smaller airport, Fitchburg (FIT) at which only non-precision approaches are available.  Because he is dead we can’t ask him why but we can presume that he got a weather report for FIT that said the clouds weren’t that low and FIT was closer to the prep school, thus saving 45 minutes of driving.


From the NTSB report, it sounds as though the clouds were right around 1000′ above ground level, which is the minimum height that Monaco was required to maintain above the runway until he could see it.  It sounds from the witness reports that he did not really see the runway until he was right on top of it.  At this point he was too high to land.  However, it is legal, assuming that you can maintain continuous visual contact with the runway, to make tight circles around the airport and then land, perhaps on a different runway than the one you were initially approaching.  You want the circles tight so that you don’t risk flying into more clouds.  Note that tight circles imply turns and that if you are hoping to land an airplane you want to be going slowly.  Recall from the aerodynamics paragraph above that turning makes it more likely that the airplane will stall at a given speed.


Even with two pilots on board, the challenge of keeping the runway in sight, setting the plane up for landing, and making those tight turns was apparently too great and the King Air crashed.  The NTSB report says that the airspeed indicators showed 60 and 66 knots on impact, which is a good speed for a little training airplane but much too slow for a King Air in a turn (the King Air’s typical approach speed is 100 knots).


If you’re planning to take a trip in a small airplane, what lessons can you learn from these mournful events?  First, legal does not equal safe.  One reason that the airlines have such a good safety record is that they are much more conservative than required.  For example, many airlines have found that their pilots are unable to maintain acceptable tolerances during circling-to-land approaches such as the one Bob Monaco was attempting and therefore they no longer train pilots on this procedure nor use it in operations.  Second, an ILS greatly enhances safety.  If the weather is marginal and your friend says “we’re going to the little airport at Gaithersburg, Maryland” repond with “I don’t mind driving an extra 20 minutes from Dulles or Baltimore-Washington International”.  Third, if you really want to be safe wait for the weather to improve.  Even with the best equipment and pilots, sunshine adds a big safety margin.

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You can get a lot more with a kind word and a gun…

… than with a kind word alone.  This will presumably be the lesson drawn by the U.S. government from the last couple of years of hand-wringing regarding Iraq.  When the invasion of Iraq started on March 19 (see daily summary from CNN) some friends started a betting pool concerning the date on which the last Iraqi military unit would surrender. My guess was April 15. Note that this does not count lone snipers or terrorists. It appears that yesterday was the big day and that the person who bet on April 14 will be the winner.  The only comparably quick surrender that comes to mind is France’s 1940 surrender to Germany after about 1.5 months.  George W. might well be asking himself “Why did we waste all of that time with diplomacy if all it took was a modest military effort that did not even last one month?”


We Americans are thus faced with the question “Iraq is done; what’s next in the Middle East?”  Some friends asked for an opinion of background issues, especially why the U.S. would want to support Israel (a very unpopular policy here in Cambridge, Massachusetts), so I wrote http://philip.greenspun.com/politics/israel/


Let me know if you think it provides any interesting answers.

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Why do Colleges Build Dormitories? And teach half-time?

The one thing that everyone who has studied college education can agree on is that students learn more when they work in groups.  Yet colleges don’t build infrastructure to support this.  A university will spend hundreds of $millions on dormitories, i.e., places for students to drink beer and sleep together.  Why is there is no budget for cubicle farms where students in the same major could do their homework together, asking for help from the person at the next desk and, if necessary, raising their hands for help from roving teaching assistants?


Another paradox of college life is the brevity of the calendar.  In a country where less than 3 percent of the population works on the farm, we’ve preserved a long summer break so that Junior can go home and help bring in the harvest.  The result is that parents, already reeling from the cost of 4 years of tuition, also have to figure out how they’re going to support Junior during Winter Break ski trips, Spring Break beach trips, and the long summer break in an economy where jobs are scarce.


Would it not make more sense for colleges to get out of the housing business and into the group-work business?  Let students come to campus at 9:00 am and stay until 9:00 pm, working with other students.  Then let them sleep at night wherever they want to.  If a college has infinite money, there’s nothing wrong with building dorms but if funds are scarce why not spend it on things that are directly relevant for learning?


Would it not make more sense for colleges to be in session for 45-50 weeks per year?  A student would be able to get a bachelor’s degree in 2.5 years and join the workforce, i.e., get off the parental payroll.


The answer to these apparently obvious questions seems to be “it depends”.  Mostly it depends on how rich the students’ parents are.  At a school for the ruling class, e.g., Harvard or Yale, it really doesn’t matter how effective the pedagogy is.  If Biff doesn’t learn calculus his daddy can still buy him a seat in Congress.   What Biff really needs to do is meet other members of the ruling class even if they are from different majors  The dormitory is the ideal environment for this mixing.


Similarly a school targeted to children of the ruling class need not worry about the parents’ ability to support Muffy for 4 years.  Much more important is that Muffy have plenty of time off to take the Grand Tour of Europe, hop the family fractional jet for the December trip to St. Barts, spend a summer interning in Cousin (Senator) Bob’s office.


A suboptimality arises when schools whose parents aren’t rich ape the policies of the traditional schools, all of which were established in an age when only the privileged went to college.


Prediction:  the coming decades will see the rise of new colleges with more intensive academic programs, more shared workspaces for undergraduates, and no dorms.

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Biographical Focus: Idi Amin

Sundays on this blog will be for focusing on one person, ideally someone connected to current events but who has slipped from notice.  Today’s focus is Idi Amin.


Idi Amin might seem like an odd choice because he has not been in the news for more than a decade and in fact many Westerners have the impression that he is dead.


Amin earns his place in this blog today because of the fact that the whole crop of modern Islamic rulers are merely following the trail blazed by Idi Amin. Amin, who ruled Uganda in the 1970s, took on the challenging project of creating a true Islamic nation out of a country that was only about 6 percent Muslims at the time. Amin, accused of murdering hundreds of thousands of Christians, did not get too much good press in the West (like Saddam) but he was a hero to Arabs and Muslims worldwide (like Saddam). Like Saddam, Idi Amin was the victim of a long-distance Israeli air raid (Entebbe 1976).  Like Saddam, Idi Amin was overthrown by a foreign military (in Amin’s case it was the war that he started against neighboring Tanzania that ultimately brought Tanzanian troops back to Kampala, the capital of Uganda).


Idi Amin made and kept friends throughout the Middle East.  For example, Yasser Arafat was Best Man at Amin’s 5th wedding.  After Idi Amin was overthrown he was set up by the Saudis in a magnificent seaside villa in the Red Sea port of Jiddah (i.e., when we fill up our SUVs part of the money goes to pay for Amin’s wives, cars, servants, etc.).


Idi Amin turned 78 years old on January 1 and currently lives in Mecca.

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