More awesome than money: Serena Williams

The Wall Street Journal top headlines are mostly about money, but “How Serena Williams Produced Her Second Act” (August 26, 2015) is worth reading if you’re interested in seeing the breadth of the paper’s capabilities. It is comprehensive look at the strategies of this 33-year-old athlete, complete with six illustrative videos (try that in the supposed glory days of print journalism!). Here’s some stuff that I didn’t know about this great achiever:

After Williams won Wimbledon in 2010, she lacerated her foot on broken glass in a restaurant in Germany and needed surgery to repair a tendon. The next year she suffered blood clots in both her lungs, which can be a life-threatening condition.

“I didn’t think I would play tennis again and I didn’t care, I just wanted to get out and live and start a life,” Williams said.

She said the blood clots left her with permanently reduced lung capacity. “When you get one, it goes into your lung and it kills it, and that’s why you die, because it just kills your lungs, it slowly starts to turn black,” she said. “It’s for life.”

Related:

Full post, including comments

Real statistics on airplane piston engine reliability: diesel versus gas

Let’s hear it for the Chinese and Germans. Continental, now Chinese-owned, acquired the bones of bankrupt German aircraft diesel engine manufacturer Thielert. The actual engines are based on a Mercedes car diesel engine, which is much heavier than the traditional aluminum air-cooled airplane piston engine, but is capable of burning jet fuel (much cheaper than Avgas in Europe and much more available at airports worldwide). Continental has been tracking the reliability of the engines they have produced. It turns out to be 3.3 inflight shut downs per 100,000 flight hours. Note that this would include, in a twin-engine plane, an intentional shutdown by a pilot who noticed a problem and decided to proceed with just one engine spinning.

Continental misleading cites some FAA statistics that older design engines experience 10 shutdowns per 100,000 hours. This could be true but those statistics include high-power engines and old engines. The proper comparison would be to relatively new engines with similar horsepower to the diesels. It is unfair to look at a 310-horsepower engine from 1990 that is past its 12-year recommended overhaul period and compare that to a two-year-old 135 hp diesel engine.

If these low-power piston engines can run for 30,000 hours before shutting down, what’s better? Supposedly the Pratt & Whitney PT6 has an in-flight shutdown rate of between 1 in 200,000 hours and 1 in 500,000 hours. The Honeywell turboprops (formerly Garrett) are somewhere in between.

Full post, including comments

New paranoia: drugs in the water supply

I was trying to find a replacement water filter for a GE refrigerator (the machine is fresh from a $430 board swap that restored its ice-dispensing capability; examining the discarded PC board revealed a handful of chips and some relays labeled “Made in China”; perhaps $10 of parts total). This GE MWF seems to be the part. The product name is “Pharmaceutical refrigerator water filter” and I inferred that it was intended to be used in pharmacies somehow. Maybe they need extra pure water for giving to customers or for mixing with powders?

It turns out this is to address “Drugs in Our Drinking Water?”, something relatively new for Americans to worry about. Supposedly if your bones are aching you can just take a drink from the nearest river and will get plenty of ibuprofen. Or maybe just have a glass of tapwater.

What do readers think? Where does this paranoia rank? Above or below vaccine paranoia?

Full post, including comments

Photoshop idea: Subtract shaded version of a subject to simulate the sun-as-spotlight

Here’s an idea for exploring all of the lighting possibilities for a big object even when you don’t have any control over the “natural light.” (Thanks, Andrea Matranga.)

I’m kind of shocked at how well this works.

Readers: What do you think of the technique?

Full post, including comments

Why “inequality” will be an evergreen American politician’s talking point

“The Redistribution Fallacy” by James Piereson looks at some data on American income and concludes that, no matter how high taxes are, income inequality will be about the same (since the services provided to low-income Americans don’t count as “income”). Here’s a chart:

income-by-quintile-graph

 

Piereson explains:

Many in the redistribution camp attribute this pattern to a lack of progressivity in the U.S. income-tax system; a higher rate of taxation on the wealthy should solve it, they think. But the United States is already a highly taxed country with a highly progressive tax rate. Indeed, income taxes in the United States are at least as progressive as those in many other developed countries. The highest marginal rate in the States was 35 percent, from 2003 to 2012; today it is 39.6 percent for top earners—not far out of line with those of America’s chief competitors, including Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Japan, where the highest marginal rates range between 40 and 46 percent.

[Note that Piereson here makes an error in comparing the total tax rates of these foreign countries with the U.S. federal rate; adding in state and city income tax here in the U.S. makes the true top rate closer to 50 percent in some high-income parts of the U.S., e.g., New York City and California]

Payroll taxes [40 percent of federal revenue] fall more heavily upon working- and middle-class wage and salary income earners than upon the wealthy, whose incomes come disproportionately from capital gains or whose salaries far exceed the maximum earnings subject to those taxes.

Turning to the spending side of fiscal policy, we encounter a murkier situation because of the sheer number and complexity of federal spending programs. The House of Representatives Budget Committee estimated in 2012 that the federal government spent nearly $800 billion on 92 separate anti-poverty programs that provided cash assistance, medical care, housing assistance, food stamps, and tax credits to the poor and near-poor. The number of people drawing benefits from anti-poverty programs has more than doubled since the 1980s, from 42 million in 1983 to 108 million in 2011. The redistributive effects of these programs are limited, however, because most funds are spent on services to assist the poor and only a small fraction of these expenditures are distributed in the form of cash or income.

As it turns out, most of the money goes not to poor or near-poor households but to providers of services. The late Daniel Patrick Moynihan once tartly described this as “feeding the horses to feed the sparrows.” This country pays exorbitant fees to middle-class and upper-middle-class providers to deliver services to the poor.

The American welfare state was built to deliver services rather than incomes in part because the American people have long viewed poverty as a condition to be overcome rather than one to be subsidized with cash. Many also believe that the poor would squander or misspend cash payments and so are better off receiving services and in-kind benefits such as food stamps, health care, and tuition assistance. With regard to aid to the poor, Americans have built a social-service state, not a redistribution state.

As one NBER study bluntly stated: “Social Security does not redistribute from people who are rich over their lifetime to those who are poor. In fact, it may even be slightly regressive.” This is partly because wealthier recipients tend to live longer than others and partly because they are more likely to have non-working spouses also eligible to collect benefits.

… the people and groups lobbying for federal programs are generally those who receive the salaries and income rather than those who get the services. They, as Senator Moynihan observed decades ago, are the direct beneficiaries of most of these programs, and they have the strongest interest in keeping them in place. The nation’s capital is home to countless trade associations, companies seeking government contracts, hospital and medical associations lobbying for Medicare and Medicaid expenditures, agricultural groups, college and university lobbyists, and advocacy organizations for the environment, the elderly, and the poor, all of them seeking a share of federal grants and contracts or some form of subsidy, tax break, or tariff.

What can we as citizens do about this? Perhaps save ourselves a lot of time by not listening when a politician promises to do something about the poorest Americans! We can be pretty sure that their ability to spend cash will be almost nonexistent, regardless of the tax rates applied to society’s highest earners.

Full post, including comments

Higher tax obligations from the “American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012”

A recent newsletter from the bank notes that the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 effectively saddles people with an income over $258,000 with higher tax rates. The higher effective rates come from the fact that these individuals can’t deduct the full amount of mortgage interest, state tax payments, charitable contributions, etc (for a person with a high enough income, only 20 percent of the amounts spent can be deducted, thus resulting in a tax reduction of only about 10 percent of the amount spent/donated).

Readers: What are some other examples of federal laws whose names suggest the opposite of what the law does?

Related:

Full post, including comments

Most published research is false (redux)

If you’re a fan of “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False” (2005; Ioannidis), you’ll be interested to know that Professor Ioannidis’s work has in fact been reproduced. See “Many Psychology Findings Not as Strong as Claimed, Study Says” (nytimes) and “Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science” (the paper; full text available).

One of my MIT graduate school classmates commented on this article: “When there were only a couple of climate scientists, they were probably reasonably good. Now that it is a popular discipline, they are approaching in quality the average of the population… And that is without taking fads and funding pressure into account.”

Full post, including comments

Massachusetts legislature prepares an attack on the local aviation industry

Our Legislature is once again taking up the idea of taxing new aircraft (Avweb), which drives the small airplane folks over the border into New Hampshire and the big airplane folks to Advocate Tax for a “solution” (starts with the aircraft owned by an LLC somewhere other than Massachusetts, presumably).

[Plainly nobody is going to pay $6.25 million in sales tax on a $100 million Gulfstream if the plane, pilots, and mechanics can be based in New Hampshire and the plane can swoop in, pick up the rich people, and fly out (has the effect of doubling aircraft noise for neighbors since there are two operations instead of one).]

I had wondered why PlaneSense, whose owner lives in Massachusetts, hadn’t moved down from New Hampshire (huge base that generates lots of jobs) when Massachusetts went tax-free for aircraft. Presumably the owner figured out that the Legislature wouldn’t be able to resist reinstating the tax. Smart guy!

Bernie Sanders would be proud, presumably…

Full post, including comments

What does it mean when a rich person expresses ardent support for Bernie Sanders?

One of my wealthiest friends on Facebook has, over the past few weeks, posted more than 50 items about Bernie Sanders and/or her passion for Bernie Sanders. A recent example was a photo of a Bernie Sanders bumper sticker affixed to her shiny new BMW (BMW badge also in photo). She’s a stay-at-home wife to a partner at a law firm with annual profits per partner of roughly $3.5 million (i.e., her husband very likely earns in that neighborhood). As far as I know she spends almost all of her husband’s income. They live in one of the most expensive neighborhoods in the United States and recently expanded their already sizable house despite the fact that their children have departed for (expensive private) colleges. With Sanders promoting ideas such as a 90-percent federal tax rate on income over $1 million (with state tax that would be nearly 100 percent), her Facebook postings are tantamount to her saying “I want the government to cut my spending power roughly in half.” But she could already cut her spending power in half by donating the majority of her husband’s income to charity and this she does not do.

Readers: What’s going on here? I can understand why people with low incomes would support Sanders but why a rich person whose lifestyle he is supposedly targeting for reduction?

Full post, including comments