Robot assistant for online dating will be required?

From an Atlantic magazine article on an analysis of the database of an online dating site:

Bruch and her colleagues analyzed thousands of messages exchanged on a “popular, free online-dating service” between more than 186,000 straight men and women. They looked only at four metro areas—New York, Boston, Chicago, and Seattle—and only at messages from January 2014.

The key, Bruch said, is that “persistence pays off.”

In the study, men’s desirability peaks at age 50. But women’s desirability starts high at age 18 and falls throughout their lifespan.

Across all four cities, men tended to use less positive language when messaging more desirable women. They may have stumbled upon this strategy through trial and error because “in all four cities, men experience slightly lower reply rates when they write more positively worded messages.”

“The most popular individual in our four cities, a 30-year-old woman living in New York, received 1504 messages during the period of observation,” the study says. This is “equivalent to one message every 30 min, day and night, for the entire month.” Yikes.

The last part is what seems to suggest an opportunity for software. Wouldn’t that young lady be a lot better off if she had a robot to screen out and/or reply to these 1504 monthly messages? Or at least highlight the ones to which she should consider replying?

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If it is unconstitutional to discriminate against Asians, what should Harvard do?

“Asian-American Students Suing Harvard Over Affirmative Action Win Justice Dept. Support” (nytimes) is kind of interesting for the reader comments. Now that Trump is against Harvard, most readers are confident that Harvard is in the right (see Inside Higher Ed for some data on just how much higher Asians have to score in order to get into Harvard, roughly 400 points higher than the most desired racial group).

Some of the readers want the current system of race-based admissions torn down in favor of family income-based. They want Harvard to give preference to children of low-income families. But if you read

the take-away is that Harvard’s best statistical chance of turning out a group of highly successful graduates is to select from children of highly successful parents (where “highly successful” need not be “rich” but probably isn’t “low income”). In other words, to preserve its prestige Harvard should actually select preferentially from high-income families and/or families where parents, aunts, uncles, and grandparents are highly accomplished.

How about a straight sort on standardized test results? Wouldn’t the class then be almost all folks from foreign countries? The U.S. does not have a monopoly on smart English speakers who are willing to study for a test. This would really get the NY Times readers upset. Quite a few of the comments are of the form “Asians are not creative or especially intelligent; they just cram for exams because their parents make them. Therefore a university with mostly Asian students would never be an interesting learning environment.” (I’ve noticed this attitude among elderly Hillary voters. One reason why they support an infinite expansion of U.S. government spending is that they think that the U.S. has a monopoly on creativity and therefore an entitlement to high economic growth rates. The Chinese can build stuff, but they can never invent stuff (your typical 80-year-old is apparently not aware of DJI!).)

One idea: Accept some age diversity (right now the passionate diversity advocates insist that everyone starting at Harvard be 18 or 19) and insist that anyone who wants to come to Harvard has to accomplish something in the real world. Harvard already has a lot of students coming after a gap year. So if someone is going to study English literature, that applicant needs to get some stuff published and positively reviewed. If someone is going to be a nerd, that applicant has to develop something that gets adopted and used. If someone is going to be a scientist, that applicant has to work in a lab and get the mature scientist to say “This person did useful work.” Mix that in with a minimum standardized test score and now there is a class full of people who can actually do stuff, albeit maybe the age shifts from 18-19 up to 19-21.

[Olin College of Engineering (higher median SAT score than MIT, last I checked) does something slightly related. Applicants come to the school for a weekend and work on projects so that faculty can get a sense for their real-world capability. Admission is partly based on performance during that weekend.]

Readers: What should Harvard do if the court system orders the school to tear down its race-based admissions process?

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Forcing merchants to charge for shopping bags results in more plastic being used?

The other day I bought a watermelon at a small supermarket in Cambridge. The market used to give away super thin plastic bags so I was about to ask for the melon to be double-bagged. The clerk then pulled out a bag that was at least as thick as a “contractor” garbage bag for disposing of 2×4 fragments. Probably 25-50X as much plastic went into the new-style bag as had gone into the old one. What changed? The city has made it illegal for merchants to give away bags. They have to charge 10 cents for each bag by law. Apparently this grocery store doesn’t want to be seen as ripping consumers off so they have laid in a stock of the world’s thickest and strongest plastic bags. Unless at least 95 percent of customers actually bring their own bags to the store, then, the effect of the law will be to increase the use of plastic.

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Well behaved women rarely make history T-shirt… over a burqa

I happened upon a few tweenage girls in Harvard Yard, closely supervised by some adults. The tweenagers were wearing full Islamic covering, with only faces and hands exposed. To this traditional outfit they had pulled over additional T-shirts reading “Well Behaved Women Rarely Make History”.

(The adult women were also fully covered, but not wearing add-on T-shirts.)

Was there a contradiction here? Being modestly covered would be considered “behaving well”, I think. A Harvard graduate friend said that there was no contradiction: “Muslim dress is superior. Men can’t objectify women so easily. She will be assessed more fairly on characteristics other than her appearance.”

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Andrew Cuomo, champion of females, tries to install a glass ceiling for Cynthia Nixon

“Cuomo and Nixon Spar in Debate: ‘Can You Stop Interrupting?’ ‘Can You Stop Lying?’” (nytimes) is a lot of fun. In “NY Gov. Andrew Cuomo says America ‘was never that great'” (CNN) nominated himself as champion for Americans who identify as female:

“We’re not going to make America great again. It was never that great,” Cuomo, a Democrat, remarked at a bill signing event in New York City. … “We will reach greatness when discrimination and stereotyping of women, 51% of our population, is gone, and every woman’s full potential is realized and unleashed and every woman is making her full contribution.”

His campaign of redressing female victimhood, however, won’t start until after he completes the installation of a glass ceiling over Cynthia Nixon’s head. From the latest nytimes:

Mr. Cuomo said Ms. Nixon lives in “the world of fiction.”

For Ms. Nixon, the actress and activist undertaking a long-shot challenge against a two-term incumbent, the debate offered her biggest stage yet in the race, and she used the spotlight to rip Mr. Cuomo as a “corrupt corporate Democrat” while promising an array of progressive policies she said he had bottled up in the last seven years.

“I’m not an Albany insider like Governor Cuomo, but experience doesn’t mean that much if you’re not actually good at governing,” she accused.

Mr. Cuomo sought to raise doubts about Ms. Nixon’s qualifications — she has never held elected office — to serve and succeed as governor, while simultaneously burnishing his own credentials.

“That’s the art of government. I can get it done,” he said at one point. At another, he told Ms. Nixon that “you don’t snap your fingers” and simply make things happen.

[Certainly under Cuomo’s leadership, New York State has reached the #1 position in terms of the percentage of residents’ incomes that is taxed away by state and local government (Tax Foundation; 12.7 percent versus 7.6 percent in Texas; i.e., the state needs 67 percent more in taxes to operate than Texas does, as a percentage of total income). Aren’t Cuomo’s statements about how he runs a sort-of-functional state government weak in light of what he spends? If I tell you that I was able to purchase a working 5-seat sedan for only $50,000 would you call me a hero of consumer prudence?]

These two Democrats can’t even agree on the right way to hate Donald Trump (their fellow New York Democrat for most of his life):

“No one has stood up to Donald Trump the way I have,” Mr. Cuomo said.

Ms. Nixon dismissed that idea entirely, quipping, “You stood up to him about as well as he stood up to Putin.”

To beat down this born-female member of the LGBTQ community that he champions, Cuomo takes a confusing position on accounting and taxation:

But Mr. Cuomo came determined to attack Ms. Nixon for her own finances. He hammered her for how many years of personal taxes she has released (five), and for routing her income through an S corporation, which he decried as a “loophole.” He returned to the topic over and over.

S corp profits flow right through to the individual taxpayer and are taxed at individual rates, so how is this a “loophole”? (Actually, though, maybe Ms. Nixon will get a big tax reduction under the 2017 tax bill that President Trump signed? That will enable some of her pass-through income to be exempt? She should interrupt her hatred of Donald Trump for long enough to send him a thank-you note?)

Readers: What do you make of this? Will voters notice the apparent contradiction between a cisgender male politician claiming to be working tirelessly to advance U.S. residents (not limited to “citizens” I hope!) who identify as “women” while simultaneously trying to prevent a cisgender female from taking his (unearned if he is a white male) place?

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Garmin acquires fltplan.com

This ties into some recent posts…. Garmin acquires fltplan.com.

The fltplan.com site is one of the best tools for determining likely fuel consumption on a trip, especially with turbine-powered aircraft.

fltplan.com also has a paid service for ameliorating some of the horrors imposed on citizens by the U.S. immigration bureaucracy (see “Can we trust Customs and Border Protection to screen refugees and asylum cases given what they’ve done with their eAPIS web site?“). Maybe this will get rolled into Garmin Pilot and turn into yet another choice on the home screen? (see “Is it possible to build an app whose job is to use another app?”)

One thing that neither fltplan.com, Garmin Pilot, nor ForeFlight do is figure out if it makes sense to fly different segments of a trip at different altitudes. For example, sometimes we are able to do a lot better leaving windy New England if we stay around 10,000’ until New Jersey (avoiding a 100-knot headwind) and then climb to the flight levels starting in the comparatively peaceful Mid-Atlantic. This can make it possible to go nonstop to Georgia rather than stopping for fuel.

The current tools all bake in an assumption that a flight will (a) depart and climb, (b) stay up at a cruise altitude for nearly the entire trip, and (c) descend and land. If they get more sophisticated it is to add “step climbing” for jets that aren’t able to zoom all the way up to FL410 until they’ve burned off some weight at lower altitudes. This is an entirely separate issue from whether it makes sense to fly lower or higher on some segments because of headwinds.

Maybe Garmin can add this feature now! It shouldn’t be that hard. Just try 6 different altitudes on each of 4 major trip segments (1296 total calculations) and if any of the fuel burn or time results are better than a straightforward climb-cruise-descend profile, work the problem in more detail.

 

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Silicon Valley Stepmom (Laurene Powell Jobs)

“Laurene Powell Jobs pushes back on her stepdaughter’s memoir” (CNN):

Steve Jobs’ widow and his sister are pushing back against a new blistering memoir written by the Apple cofounder’s daughter, Lisa Brennan-Jobs.

Her book “Small Fry” ignited controversy because it portrays Jobs as a cold and sometimes inappropriate parent.

Brennan-Jobs’ mother, Chrisann Brennan, defended her daughter’s recollection. She told the Times’ that she “got it right.”

“She didn’t go into how bad it really was, if you can believe that,” Brennan told the Times.

Powell Jobs inherited more than $20 billion when Jobs died in 2011 and now runs the Emerson Collective, a philanthropy and social action organization. Last year, the organization bought a majority stake of The Atlantic.

It is difficult to evaluate any of the emotional issues since the father is dead and didn’t write about his feelings or actions for public consumption. The main financial issue is that Lisa Brennan-Jobs, born in 1978 (13 months after the introduction of the Apple II), aged out of the California child support system in 1996. So Chrisann Brennan was able to sue a rich defendant, but not a billionaire.

“When Steve Jobs’ Ex-Girlfriend Asked Him to Pay $25 Million for His ‘Dishonorable Behavior'” (Fortune):

But one till-now-unrevealed chapter of their tortured history unfolded after the period covered by Brennan’s book, during the time when her ex- was achieving his highest renown and wealth. It’s the story of how she asked Jobs, by then a billionaire, to repent for his “dishonorable behavior” with a $25 million payment to her—and another $5 million for their daughter, then 27.

In other words, the parent wanted 83 percent of the cash for herself rather than for her child. The article continues…

After a lawsuit forced Jobs to take a paternity test, leading to a court order to provide child support and reimburse the state for its welfare costs, Jobs began paying $500 a month. …

I.e., mom sued dad.

After developing a closer relationship with his daughter—who legally changed her name to Lisa Brennan-Jobs at age nine—he increased his support “in small increments,” eventually to $4,000 a month, says Brennan. “He was cheap as he could be. He under-provided for everything. It was always like pulling teeth to get him to step up.”

Over the years after their daughter’s birth, Jobs bought Brennan two cars and a $400,000 house, paid Lisa’s private school tuition, and at times offered other financial help. Despite this, Brennan filed for bankruptcy in 1996. During high school, Lisa lived with her father (and his family) for the first time.

($400,000 for a house in Silicon Valley! Good thing that our government assures us there is no inflation!)

When the child was 9 it would have been 1987 and $4,000 per month would be $109,000 per year in today’s money. So with no mortgage or car payments, the mom/plaintiff went bankrupt on $109,000 per year tax-free.

The Fortune writer displays a poor understanding of family law…

Jobs’ money—and his favor—could be withdrawn at a moment’s notice.

To the extent that the cash was flowing pursuant to a court order, withdrawing it would not have been practical for Mr. Jobs.

Stepmom got $20 billion and stepdaughter got “millions”:

In his estate, Jobs left their daughter a multi-million-dollar inheritance, which Lisa has used to help support her, according to Brennan.

On the one hand this seems unfair. Why do the children from Mom #2 get $billions and the child from Mom #1 gets only $millions? (assuming that we believe the numbers; we are getting the story only from the disappointed plaintiff and her daughter; “$millions” might be anything less than $1 billion) On the other hand, Mom #1 went to court and got whatever she was entitled to under California law, which is “justice” by definition. Most parents, once they are sued and under various court orders, don’t volunteer additional effort and money. (See the discussion of “Parental Responses to Child Support Obligations: Causal Evidence from Administrative Data” and “Child Support and Young Children’s Development” within “Children, Mothers, and Fathers” for how court activity tends to extinguish ordinary parental volunteerism.)

Despite the seemingly obvious unfairness, most U.S. states’ family law systems make no attempt to equalize cash flowing out to plaintiffs who have obtained custody of children with the same biological co-parent/defendant. From the California chapter:

As in most other states, because existing child support orders are deducted from income that can be tapped for additional child support orders, different children from the same parent have different cash values. The first person to sue a parent will get the most money and each successive plaintiff will get less. There is no formal equalization process, according to Wagner, but “if dad could cause a motion to be filed against all the mothers at the same time and consolidated and heard by the same judge, there could be discretionary equalization.” Is that likely to prevail? “Res judicata governs child support orders,” says Jaffe, referring to the fact that reopening a court decision is discouraged in our legal system. “Child support cannot be revisited unless there is a material and substantial change in circumstances and then you’re trying new facts. An award for an additional child is probably not not material or substantial.” Wagner adds that any equalization attempt would have to be initiated by the payor: “Mom #5 has no standing to try to get Mom #1 reduced.”

From New York:

As with other states, children of the same parent will have different cash values depending on the sequence in which that parent has been sued for child support. The co-parent of the first child is entitled to 17 percent of the defendant’s income. The co-parent of the second child is entitled to only 17 percent of the remaining 83 percent. The co-parent of the third child is entitled to only 17 percent of the remaining 69 percent. At this point the defendant has been reduced to poverty by a combination of child support orders and taxes. A fourth plaintiff would be unable to collect anything for a fourth child, even if the previous three plaintiffs had all married into households with high incomes.

From Massachusetts:

The defendant [sued by Jessica Kosow] had a daughter from a previous marriage, a 16-year-old girl. That child had a cash value of $20,020 per year, determined by a different judge, compared to the 2-year-old’s nearly $94,000-per-year cash value.

The attorneys whom we interviewed for Real World Divorce say that the typical family law system has to be understood in the context of the 1950s. The assumption is that litigants knew each other for 20 years, not for the 20 minutes that is becoming more typical. So the defendant is supposed to be a middle-aged guy whose long-term wife has sued him and his first obligation is to continue to support the former wife and kids in whatever lifestyle they had grown accustomed to. If he has any additional kids, they will get whatever is left over. If the defendant gets a pay raise, the plaintiff can come back to court to maintain her proportional share of the extra funds. So by design there will be inequality in the lifestyles of children from different mothers, though the idea is that the later-born kids will have much less (the popularity of the iPhone after the first batch of children has aged out is a Black Swan-type event not contemplated).

Having chosen litigation and having been the first plaintiff, Chrisann Brennan had priority access to Steve Jobs’s income (ahead of the wife and later-born children) and got everything to which a California plaintiff is entitled. Due mostly to the fact that Jobs got crazy rich after Mom #1’s child turned 18, it turned out to be ridiculously less than what Mom #2 gained. But it was vastly more than what Ms. Brennan would have obtained had she sued under neighboring Nevada’s family law (capped child support at roughly $13,000 per year per child) and it might have been 30-100X what she could have gotten in Sweden or Germany.

My friends on Facebook are expressing outrage at how they assume Jobs treated his daughter (based on hearing one side of the story plus correlation with Jobs’s reported treatment of co-workers). But shouldn’t we expect there to be conflict when there are billions of dollars potentially up for grabs and a stepmom is right there next to the bucket? And, even if the cashflow was smaller than hoped for, is it okay for someone to write a book about what a bad person her father was? Most children would presumably let others write those books (see filial piety for the Chinese perspective).

[Is it meaningful to ask whether Jobs was actually a bad “father”? The only role assigned to him under California family law was to pay the bills for a plaintiff mother. This was in the relatively early days of no-fault divorce and middle-class women having children without the intention of living with the father. How could Jobs have provided traditional 1950s-style parenting to a child with whom he did not live and had never lived?]

[Note that Chrisann Brennan would have been in a much better litigation position if she’d been able to persuade Jobs to marry her. From the California chapter:

How long does the alimony last? Jaffe: “By statute anything more than 10 years is a ‘long marriage’. Thus the court may not terminate jurisdiction over spousal support until death or remarriage. If the parties divorce at age 30, the court has jurisdiction to award support until the woman turns 100.

As is also common in Massachusetts, a plaintiff may re-open a decades-only alimony decision in light of a defendant’s newfound wealth. So if Brennan had divorced Jobs in 1980, at the time of her child support lawsuit, she could have come back in 2010 to ask for additional alimony based on the success of the iPhone.]

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Celebrating Leonard Bernstein’s 100th birthday in the #MeToo era

For me and the six other remaining listeners to classical radio stations, the past couple of weeks have been non-stop celebrations of Leonard Bernstein, both for his conducting and composing. He would have turned 100 on August 25, 2018.

Given that the average age of a listener is somewhere between 75 and dead (i.e., not delicate children), I’m not sure why announcers and interviewees never mentioned that Bernstein was famous for

  1. having sex with older established men (while young and climbing the career ladder)
  2. having sex with young men in the same industry (once he himself was old and established and in a position to advance his sex partners’ careers)

[See, for example, Queers in History:

His sexual attraction to males began early, however with affairs while still at university with conductor Dimitri Mitropoulos and then with Aaron Copland. There were nunerous other sexual encounters and longer relationships with men, both before and during his marriage, until in 1973 he met and fell in love with a much younger man, [composer] Tom Cothran, and moved into an apartment with him.

He was later reconciled with his wife and returned to her, but continued a relationship with Cothran, until the latter died (of AIDS).

After Felicia Bernstein died of cancer in 1978, Bernstein became more open about his sexuality, and surrounded himself with beautiful young boys until his own death in 1990.

]

Americans aren’t in a particularly forgiving mood right now when it comes to old sins (e.g., see “NASCAR Xfinity driver Conor Daly, 26, loses his sponsorship after his father admitted to using the N-word in a 1980s radio interview before his son was even born“). How is it possible to have an unqualified celebration of the life and career of Leonard Bernstein in the #MeToo era?

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India was a conquered land

Some more news to the uneducated (me!) from Incarnations: A History of India in Fifty Lives by Sunil Khilnani… India was not always populated by today’s Indians.

From the profile of Birsa Munda:

Who owns India? Who owns the forests and rivers, the farmlands eyed by industry, the slums coveted by real estate developers and airport authorities, the hills and plateaus desired by mining barons?

The nationalists of the twentieth century had a simple answer to who owned the land: Indians did. The British did not. Yet when the nationalists assembled the jigsaw puzzle of diversities to define the Indian nation, some pieces got left out of consideration. Among those were the original tribal inhabitants of the country, who are now called Adivasis. The Adivasis, taken together, match in size the population of Germany or Vietnam, but they are so various and widely dispersed across the subcontinent that it is nonsensical to speak of them as a single group. One experience many Adivasis do share, however, is the overriding of their rights in the name of development and in the interests of other Indians, especially those with more money. “It’s as if middle and upper classes and castes have seceded into outer space,” the writer and political activist Arundhati Roy says. “They look down and say, ‘What’s our bauxite doing in their mountains, what’s our water doing in their rivers?’”

Matters did not improve when the European missionaries came:

“They say in Africa, when the colonizers—the white colonizers—came, ‘We had the land and they had the Bibles. Now we have the Bibles and they have the land.’”

Wikipedia says “Adivasi make up 8.6% of India’s population, or 104 million people, according to the 2011 census.” Where does everyone else in India come from? William Jones, also profiled in the book, figured out that the dominant languages came from the same place as had European languages:

This insight—that Sanskrit and the European classical languages were all branches of a single, lost linguistic river—helped to challenge prejudice and reconnect the world. Jones was arguing that Sanskrit was a “beautiful sister” of Greek and Latin.

Genomics has enabled 21st century folks to look at traces of the physical migrations, e.g., in “The Genomic Formation of South and Central Asia” (March 31, 2018, Narasimham, et al.). The genetic data seem to be consistent with what the language scholars have been saying for centuries (see Wikipedia for the standard migration theory of Indo-European). So this isn’t exactly news, but it is a different way of thinking about India for me. I think about North America as having been conquered by European migrants, thus depriving the natives of what had been their birthright. But I hadn’t reflected that there were likely surviving tribes in India who had originally been in possession of the entire subcontinent.

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The Senate office building named after a segregationist

“Replace Richard Russell’s Name With McCain’s? Senate Debates a Segregationist’s Legacy” (nytimes) concerns an unfortunate situation:

The Russell Senate Building was named after him in 1972, a year after his death, at the suggestion of Senator Robert Byrd, Democrat of West Virginia, who had joined Mr. Russell’s filibuster before becoming an advocate of civil rights. Mr. Byrd proposed naming the two buildings — then known as the new and old Senate office buildings — after Mr. Russell and Mr. Dirksen, both of whom had recently died. … But Mr. Russell’s legacy is marked by his deeply rooted belief in racial segregation in the name of maintaining the social order of “the Old South.”

Now they want to name the building after John McCain, a member of the Keating Five (senators who were investigated for their role in wiping out $3.4 billion in taxpayer funds back in 1989 ($7.1 billion in today’s mini-dollars)).

Since it is harder to earn money than to spend it, what about a break in tradition? If we must rename the building to honor someone more virtuous than Russell, why not name it after whoever paid the most taxes in 2017? Go down the list of the people who paid the most and ask each one “Would you like to be recognized for your contributions to the Treasury?

[Also, why is it okay to have stuff named after Jefferson and Washington? They actually owned slaves! Abraham Lincoln said “I will say, then, that I am not, nor ever have been, in favor of bringing about in any way the social and political equality of the white and black races—that I am not, nor ever have been, in favor of making voters or jurors of Negroes, nor of qualifying them to hold office, nor to intermarry with white people; … And inasmuch as they cannot so live, while they do remain together there must be the position of superior and inferior, and I, as much as any other man, am in favor of having the superior position assigned to the white race.” Do we take his name off the Lincoln Memorial in favor of a more enlightened modern politician?]

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