British fondness for conservatives doesn’t mean anything for the U.S. election in 2016

Britons rejected a Labour Party Manifesto that is pretty similar to what Democrats here in the U.S. promise voters, e.g.,

Britain’s route to prosperity and higher living standards is through more secure and better paid jobs. But Conservative policies are causing whole sectors of the economy to be dragged into a race to the bottom on wages and skills. The Government has weakened employment rights and promoted a hire-and-fire culture. Labour believes our economy can only succeed in a race to the top – competing in the world with better work, better pay and better skills. Too many people do a hard day’s work but remain dependent on benefits. We will raise the National Minimum Wage to more than £8 an hour by October 2019, bringing it closer to average earnings. We will give local authorities a role in strengthening enforcement against those paying less than the legal amount. … Labour will ban exploitative zero-hours contracts. Those who work regular hours for more than 12 weeks will have a right to a regular contract. We will abolish the loophole that allows firms to undercut permanent staff by using agency workers on lower pay.

We will introduce tougher penalties for those abusing the tax system, end unfair tax breaks used by hedge funds and others, and bear down on disguised employment.

In other words, the rich will be taxed, the working class will earn more without having to develop any new skills, and the government will decide what are fair wages, at least for people towards the bottom of the wage distribution.

Should the Conservative victory in the UK lead to skepticism about my prediction that Republicans cannot possibly win the 2016 Presidential election? I don’t think so. The U.S. tends to lag Britain politically and economically by at least a few decades. Britons endured many decades of economic stagnation (chronicled and explained by Mancur Olson) and watched the defeated Germans and the invaded French overtake them economically before questioning the idea that government was going to solve all of their problems. Americans, on the other hand, still have a strong prejudice in favor of drama, expecting growth, and can’t accept that boring stagnation while interest groups fight over the scraps (Mancur Olson-style) is a real possibility.

A voter who expects growth as a birthright isn’t going to listen to Republicans talking about how taxes and regulation need to be reduced to encourage economic growth.

[Separately, a Web site whose initial programming friends and I were involved with (back in the 1990s) is supporting the election news. Guidestar.org made IRS Form 990s (tax returns of non-profit organizations) readily available. Here’s an analysis of the Clinton Foundation’s spending that links to the 990s on Guidestar.]

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Collecting Medicare cash on the way up and on the way down

In 2009, Atul Gawande wrote “The Cost Conundrum” about how physicians in McAllen, Texas were making serious bank from running Medicare patients through extra tests, typically at facilities that they themselves own. “Overkill” (New Yorker, May 11, 2015) is a kind of follow-up. It turns out that the docs who previously ran up the huge bills now each get $800,000 from an Obamacare provision that rewards doctors who reduce the government’s costs.

[Separately the article notes that between 25-42 percent of Medicare patients per year get an expensive unnecessary test or treatment. Dr. Gawande says that our fancy machines are best at finding cancers that grow so slowly we’ll probably die of something else before they grow to become a real problem (the cancer is thus dubbed a “turtle”). Unfortunately they are not good at finding the fast-growing cancers (“rabbits”), which is why cancer death rates haven’t moved much.]

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Epic taxpayer-funded child support lawsuit results in $28/week award

“New Jersey woman learns her twins have two dads at child support hearing” is a story Guardian about a lawsuit intensive enough to warrant a 22-page opinion by a government employee (the judge). What was at stake? The final award was $28/week in child support (we can presume that the defendant was not a big earner). As is typical when low-income men are sued, NJ.com reveals that father was the only person in the courtroom who was neither an attorney nor represented by an attorney (a quick Google search shows that Liana Allen, who worked for the mother/government, has an “Esq.:” after her name). (Failure to pay child support results in imprisonment but it is not technically a criminal matter and therefore the defendants have no right to an attorney.)

Don’t forget that the taxpayers will get to pay public employees to handle at least the prosecution and judging of one more lawsuit based on this mother. The mother and/or the office of child support enforcement on its own can pursue the man or men who may be the genetic father of the other twin….

Related:

  • “Citizens and Legislators” chapter of Real World Divorce, in which the possibility of exempting low-income defendants from the litigation/imprisonment system of extracting child support
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A non-profit organization in the Boston area that needs a heavy-duty laser printer?

Folks:

I have an HP 2605 workgroup printer (hooks up to hard-wired Ethernet and then can print, supposedly, up to 35,000 pages per month; I have printed only 22,000 pages on it). Much cheaper and more reliable than an inkjet. I am replacing it with a LaserJet M553dn because the color accuracy has degraded to the point that it isn’t useful for printing photos (tried this cleaning procedure which had previously worked but it did not this time). I have some extra toner for the printer as well (the toner is worth about $300 at retail).

Does anyone know of a non-profit org in the Boston area that would be able to use this? It should be someone who needs to print a fair amount of black and white. I will provide delivery and setup.

Thanks in advance for any ideas.

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Universities are so good at marketing that they have to pay contractor to help them give away the product

“Venture Capitalists Help Connect Low-Income Students With Elite Colleges” is a WSJ article about a Silicon Valley startup that gets paid by elite universities with lavish marketing budgets to find low-income high school students to whom the schools can give away the product. (To call the university experience an “education” is a stretch for a lot of majors, as noted in Academically Adrift.)

Here are some choice quotes:

… QuestBridge, conceived in 2003 to connect disadvantaged students with elite colleges that pay a recruiting fee for the services.

“It seemed too good to be true and I thought it was a scam,” Francisco Guzman, who grew up in a low-income household in Elizabeth, N.J., said of when he first received a QuestBridge application by email. He landed a full scholarship to Stanford, and the 25-year-old is now a senior product designer for an Internet startup in San Francisco.

Students fill out online applications, and finalists are chosen by QuestBridge based on factors including academic performance, financial need and personal experiences such as having to work while attending school to help support their families. The list of finalists is sent electronically to participating colleges for their selections.

Vassar College in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., accepted 22 QuestBridge applicants in 2008; last fall, that number increased to 70, representing 10% of its freshman class, said Art D. Rodriguez, dean of admission and financial aid.

If this QuestBridge startup is so much better than the (presumably vastly more expensive) college’s full-time staff, why not outsource all of the recruitment, not just recruiting for low-income students?

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Quality is Job #?: The American workforce in Boston and Denver

A recent trip to Denver provided some insight into the American workforce to which politicians are ever-eager to supply raises (using employers’ money, naturally).

It started at Massport’s newly renovated Terminal B, whose budgeted cost was $124 million (Globe). The public WiFi was completely non-functional, as is typical at Logan Airport. Frustrated passengers, each of whom paid a fat fee (through their airline ticket purchase) to be there, could be heard asking each other “Did you get it to work?”

[We did better than New Yorkers financially; they are planning to spend $4 billion to update one of the terminals at LaGuardia (nytimes). This is just slightly less than what Dubai spent to build the largest building in the world. The new LaGuardia terminal is supposed to be 1.3 million square feet (source) compared to 18.4 million square feet for Dubai. So it will cost Americans nearly 13X as much per square foot, assuming that the LGA project comes in on budget. What’s interesting about this is that U.S. airlines say that the only reason Emirates can out-compete them is that Emirates is subsidized. (USA Today) Is it surprising to have lower costs when your main hub is in a country that builds stuff for 1/13th what it costs big-city Americans?]

Denver International Airport does have working WiFi (apparently one massive tech failure was enough for that airport). The “Uber Select” driver, an immigrant from West Africa, had a fancy Mercedes but was unable to locate the 200-room downtown Ritz-Carlton. The “Uber Black” driver, an Arab immigrant, on the return trip had a yet-more-expensive car but was unable to operate the climate control system in automatic mode (it was an unseasonably cold rainy day and he arrived shivering with the system set to “Lo” temp and with manual fan set at about 75 percent; when I suggested raising the temperature above “Lo” he cranked up the fan speed to 100 percent).

What seems to be missing from the debate about wages in the U.S. is any discussion of worker quality. It is almost a Zen koan: What is the market wage for a WiFi engineer who can’t deliver WiFi?

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Angelika Graswald Life Insurance versus Child Support net present value calculation

The New York Times reported that Angelika Graswald, the former Latvian au pair looking to profit from a third American marriage, “stood to gain $250,000” from a life insurance policy on her fiance Vincent Viafore (story), the victim of a kayaking accident. This is the motive that authorities are citing for Graswald to allegedly murder Mr. Viafore.

However, a net present value calculation (spreadsheet) shows that Graswald would actually have made $231,026 in additional profit if she had simply gotten pregnant and harvested the child support at New York rates (17 percent of Mr. Viafore’s pre-tax income, reported as $167,000 in 2009).

Why would Graswald have incurred the risk of imprisonment if she could have made more money, on a net present value basis, as an unwed mother than as a murderess?

[The assumptions that went into this calculation were the following:

  • 2 percent inflation rate
  • 4 percent discount rate for NPV (since Graswald could have invested the $250k to earn perhaps a 2 percent real return)
  • constant inflation-adjusted salary for Viafore using his reported 2009 income as a basis
  • costs of ownership for the cash-producing child: $4300/year in 2015 dollars based on an analysis of U.S. government Consumer Expenditures data by UCLA professor William Comanor (previous posting)]

Related:

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New York Times: American worker was going 2X the speed limit so… give him more money

“Amtrak Crash and America’s Declining Construction Spending” is a story about an American worker ($200,000/year including pension and other benefits?) driving a train at more than double the speed limit for a given length of track (resulting in deaths, injuries, the destruction of a train, the suspension of train service, etc.). From this the New York Times infers that the logical next step is to give this group of workers tens of billions of capital equipment.

Related:

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Missoula: Rape and the Justice System in a College Town (a.k.a. majoring in partying and football)

I’m a huge admirer of Jon Krakauer. After I posted skeptically about Greg Mortenson’s Three Cups of Tea, Krakauer dug into this “party with the Clintons” do-gooder and came up with the truly stunning Three Cups of Deceit: How Greg Mortenson, Humanitarian Hero, Lost His Way. So of course I had to check out Missoula: Rape and the Justice System in a College Town.

The book potentially sheds a lot of light on America’s stagnant economy. The college students Krakauer follows major in psychology and then spend all of their time either watching sports, playing sports, drinking heavily, or having sex. Nobody is raped in the physics lab in Missoula if for no other reason than nobody Krakauer followed took a physics course to begin with. (See the Wall Street Journal for how income varies by major.)

The incidents chronicled by Krakauer fall into three categories:

  • man+woman each had more than 10 drinks, were consensually together in a private space such as a bedroom, and then some sort of sexual contact transpired (nearly all)
  • woman voluntarily accepted a drink from a man in his dorm room and the drink was spiked with a drug, and then some sort of sexual contact ensued (two incidents; same man, a student from Saudi Arabia who returned home before the victims went to the police)
  • woman invited man to lie on her bed in a tiny bedroom, took off some of her clothes voluntarily; dispute regarding whether or not she consented to the rest of the interaction (one incident)

Why is there rape in the first place? Krakauer attributes the phenomenon to “male entitlement” and uses or quotes the word “entitled” in this context about five times. Another thing that leads to rape is “male privilege.” Krakauer never expresses any doubt as to what happens in these private bedrooms, even when the women concerned express their own doubts (typically due to intoxication). For example, a freshman expelled from the school by a Title IX “preponderance of evidence” (51 percent proof) court is referred to in the Dramatis Personae as “University of Montana student who raped Kaitlynn Kelly in October 2011.” (Both were more or less blind drunk at the time, the raped woman’s roommate and a gentleman friend were asleep in the same room on an adjoining bed, and, without going into Krakauer-style gynecological detail, the only contact alleged was with the expelled freshman’s fingers.)

Why is there more rape in Missoula than anywhere else? Statistically, there isn’t, says Krakauer. The incidence of rape in Missoula is lower than the national average of 0.27 percent of women (Krakauer cites only cases and statistics of men raping women). What’s remarkable about Missoula, Montana is that a journalist prior to Krakauer wrote about how the police and prosecutors in Missoula were ineffective at arresting and imprisoning rapists and were especially inclined to be lenient with male students at the University of Montana, football players in particular. This led to a U.S. Department of Justice investigation of the local law enforcement apparatus, a bunch of new bureaucrats being hired, and the state going after defendants against whom the evidence wasn’t very strong (see below). (Note that the federal officials time their visits to coincide with beautiful spring and summer hiking weather in Missoula.)

Here’s how the first rape story unfolded…

Beau Donaldson, a junior at the University of Montana at the time of the assault, was on the school’s football team. Allison Huguet was attending Eastern Oregon University on a track scholarship. People played beer pong in the basement and held “tea races” to determine who could chug bottles of Twisted Tea (a brand of syrupy malt liquor favored by UM students) the fastest. … By 1:30 in the morning, the party was running out of steam, and the handful of people still there moved upstairs to the living room. Donaldson and Huguet sat down together on a couch. Huguet, growing sleepy, lay across the couch, put a pillow on Donaldson’s thigh, and placed her head on the pillow. But there was nothing remotely sexual about it, said Huguet and Williams. “Allison never had any interest in that type of relationship with Beau,” Williams insisted. “Absolutely none.”

Krakauer expresses shock that, as it happens, this is not the prelude to a G-rated Disney movie. Donaldson ultimately admitted, on a surreptitiously recorded phone call, that the sleepy encounter in this house full of drunken students was “taking advantage” of the drunk/half-asleep Huguet. He was pursued by the authorities and, facing up to 100 years in prison, accepted a plea deal of 10 years in prison (see “Torture and Plea Bargaining” for why we have this system).

The next story in the book should also give some cheer to tuition-paying parents:

When Fairmont and Belnap arrived at his apartment, at 5:45 p.m., Styron and his roommate, a Griz player who weighed almost as much as Styron, were smoking weed outside. The four students went indoors, poured themselves shots of 99-proof schnapps, and were soon joined by three other members of the UM football team. Belnap didn’t know any of the men except Styron and his roommate. The five Griz players began competing to drink the most, and they encouraged the two women to join them. “Every couple of minutes we would all take another shot,” Belnap told me. “It was a ‘Let’s see if you can keep up’ kind of thing. I was like, ‘Uh, okay.’ ”

By then Kelsey Belnap had consumed between eight and eleven shots in approximately forty-five minutes. She can recall very little about what happened thereafter.

“I remember my belt buckle being played with, and then somehow I was bent over the bed.” For the next two hours she drifted “in and out of awareness” as different men entered the room, had sex with her, and left.

When Belnap eventually regained control of her faculties, she burst into tears. Betsy Fairmont called a friend, who took Fairmont and Belnap to the Community Medical Center emergency room, where Belnap was admitted at 9:00 p.m. According to the nurses’ notes, she was “obviously intoxicated” and had slurred speech. Two and a half hours after she’d stopped drinking, her blood alcohol concentration was measured to be 0.219 percent, nearly three times the legal limit for driving. When asked if she was experiencing any pain, Belnap replied that her vagina hurt. When asked to elucidate further, she stated that she thought she “may have been raped.”

[Krakauer includes the word “vagina” 45 times in the book, though the relevance of the sexual specifics (which he provides in great detail) is unclear. Generally the men admit having had sex and the medical professionals who come into court and testify admit that whatever they saw when examining the victim could just as easily have been caused by consensual activity.]

The authorities are never able to do much with Belnap’s case because her friend who was present (albeit also drunk) in the same room told the police that “Belnap had willingly had sex with all four of Benjamin Styron’s teammates.”

The book is strong on describing the procedures at the “University Court”:

The seven individuals on the University Court are appointed by the president of the University of Montana. The court is composed of three undergraduate students, one graduate student, two faculty members, and one staff member. At Calvin Smith’s hearing on November 18, 2011, held in the basement of Main Hall, the chair of the court was a distinguished professor from the university’s School of Business Administration; she served as the academic equivalent of a judge and ran the proceeding.

A dean serves as prosecutor and all of the students Krakauer describes going in front of the court are expelled within a couple of months from the original complaint. (Krakauer praises this process and criticizes people who try to assist the accused in presenting a defense.)

The two not-very-drunk students alone in the bedroom story is the longest because the case against Jordan Johnson went to a three-week trial when Johnson refused to plea out. Johnson and “Cecilia Washburn” (Krakauer’s pseudonym) had been plastered the night before:

It was Friday night, February 3, 2012, the first night of the ball. Approximately fifteen hundred young men and women were in attendance. Although no alcohol was served at the event, most of the students had gotten sozzled before they arrived, including both Washburn and Johnson. Washburn slid her hand along the small of Johnson’s back, leaned into him, and drunkenly declared (according to Johnson and Bienemann), “Jordy, I would do you anytime.”

Well… the next night they’re alone together in her bedroom, the male roommate just outside the door in the living room, and something happens in the bedroom that (a) leads to a criminal complaint, and (b) is not loud enough to get the attention of the roommate.

The victim is the first witness:

“Maybe it was the clothes I was wearing, us making out, or me taking off my shirt that made Jordan think I wanted to have sex,” Washburn answered. … “I should have screamed out to my roommate in the living room,” she answered, “or used more force to resist him, yes.”

The state of Montana hires David Lisak, a psychologist who had previously been a professor at University of Massachusetts, Boston, but is now a full-time expert witness (his web site lists his first job as “forensic consultant”). They pay him $325/hour to fly out from Boston to talk to the jury about rape in general (he wasn’t asked to study any of the facts of the actual case):

He was asked to provide “educational testimony”: information about what the best research reveals about rapists and their victims. … Prosecutor Joel Thompson began by asking Dr. Lisak about “misconceptions about rape”—rape myths. When people hear the term “rapist,” Lisak said, many of them “think of a guy in a ski mask, wielding a knife, hiding in the bushes, breaking into a home. And it’s a scary image, and it does happen, but…the vast majority of rapes, well over eighty percent, are actually non-stranger rapes.” … “There’s no profile of a rapist that you can use to say either somebody is or that somebody isn’t,” Lisak said. “But surely rapists are creepier than the average population?” Thompson asked. “Actually, no,” Lisak answered. We all like to think that we would be able to recognize the sort of person who might be a rapist, he said, “but the truth is, we can’t.” “So rapists can be likable?” Thompson asked. “Absolutely,” Lisak answered. “Sociable?” “Absolutely.”… “Can they be thought of outwardly as kind?” Thompson inquired. “Yes,” Lisak answered. “Gentle?” “Yes.” “Even timid?” “Yes, even timid, some of them,” Lisak said.

Then the trial gets back to comfortable territory for Krakauer:

CLAIRE FRANCOEUR, the nurse-practitioner and forensic medical examiner at the First Step sexual-assault resource center who’d examined Allison Huguet and Kelsey Belnap, was called as a witness by the prosecution at the end of the trial’s first week. She showed the jury photographs and a video of Cecilia Washburn’s genitals while describing the forensic exam she performed the day after Washburn was allegedly raped. Prompted by questions from prosecutor Adam Duerk, Francoeur pointed out abrasions and a small laceration inside Washburn’s vagina, as well as minor bruises on her collarbone. She also testified that she found tenderness throughout the vaginal wall and tenderness on the side of Washburn’s head. All of which, she said, were “consistent with sexual trauma, though nonspecific.” After the video of Washburn’s genitals finished playing and the public was readmitted to the courtroom, defense counsel David Paoli, bent on impugning Francoeur’s credibility, began an especially contentious cross-examination. “Nurse Francoeur…,” he began, “your job is not to determine, and you can’t determine, nonconsensual versus consensual [sex]; isn’t that right?” “Correct,” she answered.

Paoli brought up the laceration inside Washburn’s vagina that Francoeur had identified in the video. “This small laceration, it’s approximately a

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WSJ looks at what happens when you combine IT with government handouts

“Automated System Often Unjustly Boosts Veterans’ Disability Benefits” (May 11, 2015) has some fun stuff for students of (1) the use of IT, (2) the tasks faced by government workers, and (3) the attitude of Americans toward work versus cashing government checks.

Here are some excerpts:

A software system introduced in 2012 that automates veterans’ disability levels for compensation relies almost solely on a patient’s self-reported ailments, the employees say, even in the face of contradictory information.

Increased disability levels—the degree to which a veteran is considered impaired from earning a normal living—is partly why costs in the VA benefits branch have surged 65% to nearly $65 billion in 2014, from the end of 2011.

Approved veterans also are receiving compensation for more diagnosed problems: averaging 4.3 disabilities each in 2013, up from 3.9 in 2011. The VA expects to pay out nearly $72 billion in benefits in 2015, according to the agency.

“Regardless of our objective observations, we’re required to check off all the symptoms the veteran says,” said Gail Poyner, a psychologist who conducts disability examinations for the VA in Oklahoma City.

That information is passed along to a rater, who inputs it into the software.

Without the software, Mr. Adams estimates that a human rater would have determined the vet was only 30% disabled.

“Moving checked [symptom] boxes from one place to another,” he said of his work under the new system. “A monkey could do it.”

In one claim reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, a veteran admitted to his VA psychologist that he was capable of working, but preferred to “do nothing but watch TV movies or play video games” and “use marijuana all day every day.”

The example veteran got $37,200/year. As this is tax-free it exceeds median compensation for an American who works full-time (though child support in Massachusetts or Wisconsin could pay a lot better!). What the WSJ did not explore is the tendency of people who get these monthly checks to move to Colorado and smoke marijuana legally…

Related:

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