Happy New Year to my readers!

Happy New Year to my readers!

Here’s a picture from plague-ridden Boston of our healthy 1-year-old and a stocked fridge. Hoping for more of the same in 2015…

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And so that this blog doesn’t become indistinguishable from my Facebook feed…. let’s talk about what we’re (realistically) hoping to see in the aviation, technology, and economics world during 2015.

I’ll start off…

  • the long-delayed Icon A5 amphibious seaplane delivered to customers (see my review from 2010).
  • an announcement (but not a delivery) of the BendixKing AeroVue retrofit flight deck for the Pilatus PC-12 (currently King Air only)
  • that the flight recorder from MH 370 will be found (I predicted to friends that it would be found in January 2015 so I hope that it will be found very soon indeed)
  • a little progress toward the ground-based copilot idea that I wrote about in September 2008. (Could have been useful for preventing a lot of the aviation accidents that occurred in 2014, actually, which might motivate action (oddly enough probably to add a third pilot to the two-pilot airline crew rather than my idea of supplementing the single-pilot private flight).)
  • sufficient progress on OLED that there will be a consumer-priced 4K OLED television announced by the end of 2015, which I think will pave the way for a 4K OLED desktop computer monitor (in the meantime maybe this LG 31″ IPS LCD monitor that my friend Gary loves is the best option).
  • despite the fall in oil prices, continued gradual progress in electric cars, solar power, and wind power (due to investments made years ago coming to fruition)
  • a further reduction in the percentage of the U.S. labor market where wages are set by a market. Employers will increasingly either be hiring people they wouldn’t otherwise have hired (due to government-established quotas) or they will be paying some of their workers more than a market-clearing wage (due to government-established minimum wages or anti-discrimination orders, e.g., people who call in sick a lot will get paid the same as people who never call in sick due to new requirements around sick leave). This should result in a fall in the percentage of Americans who are working, as companies substitute capital for labor, but the effect will be masked for a few years by the fall in commodity prices. (Why this prediction? It is based on the 2014 election. Voters don’t seem to care what percentage of Americans are working, but are very concerned that every American who does work gets a package of wages and benefits that seem subjectively fair.)
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When will hardcopy holiday cards become obsolete?

I’ve invested more than a day of time in getting Happy New Year cards designed, printed, addressed, and mailed. It will also cost about $400 paid to Shutterfly and the USPS. Part of the time and effort is inquiring about the current home addresses of friends who have moved (a task that serves no purpose except to enable me to mail them cards). In the old days this was a great opportunity to reconnect with distant friends and relatives. It occurs to me that today nearly all of our friends and relatives learn about our lives on a continuous basis through Facebook. Does that mean that the custom of sending hardcopy holiday cards with family photos and news will wither away and die? The young people that I know don’t seem to have mailing addresses in their smartphones so I’m not sure if they would have any way of sending hardcopy holiday cards even if they wanted to.

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Why can’t math and science professors be incompetent instead of racist?

The New York Times ran an article on Dec 26, 2014 titled “Colleges Reinvent Classes to Keep More Students in Science”. It describes the ineffective lecture-based approach to teaching and contrasts that with active learning in the classroom. That students learn from solving problems rather than from sitting passively has been known for a long time. (I figured it out myself after giving a few lectures in software engineering at MIT and then realizing that broadcast communication to the students could be much more easily accomplished by giving them a Web page or email (see http://philip.greenspun.com/teaching/teaching-software-engineering for more).) Why haven’t universities adopted active learning? The simplest explanation is that it is more work and they haven’t faced any competition so why bother trying to do a good job? Complacency and incompetence, in other words, the twin gods worshipped in the typical American workplace.

The Times, however, has decided that the most credible explanation for this phenomenon is not that customers keep handing over $50k/year for the easy-to-produce lecture-based product. It is that professors are trying to keep students, especially women and blacks, from majoring in their subjects. The journalist didn’t ask what seems like an obvious question: Why would people in a bureaucracy want to shrink their section of that bureaucracy? Wouldn’t it make more sense for math and science professors to try to get more students majoring in their subjects, which would justify larger budgets, more staff, new buildings, etc.?

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AirAsia 8501

New England Cable News wants to interview me regarding AirAsia 8501, which motivated me to search Google News to find out what is known about this missing Airbus A320. So far the most significant piece of information is that the pilots were seeking a deviation from their planned route to avoid clouds at 32,000′. In latitudes closer to the Equator there is more energy pumped into the atmosphere by the sun and therefore thunderstorms are more intense and cumulonimbus clouds that generate thunderstorms extend higher in the atmosphere, e.g., to as high as 60,000′. Airliners typically fly no higher than 40,000′ and therefore must divert around, rather than fly over, the most severe thunderstorms. By far the best Web page on this incident that I could find was the Wikipedia page, showing thunderstorms and the flight path on the same map. Also see the video at CNN, which says that the T-storms during that particular flight were forecast to extend up to 52,000′.

What’s bad about flying into a thunderstorm? Turbulence can be severe, exceeding the 2.5G load factor for which airliners are designed (light planes must tolerate up to 3.8Gs by regulation, but heavier airplanes have more inertia and are therefore less likely to experience heavy G loads in turbulence). Lightning can damage the electrical system, without which a modern airplane simply cannot be controlled (you need the electrics to run the hydraulic pumps that actually move the ailerons, elevators, and rudder against the heavy airloads; the Airbus A320 is also a fly-by-wire system that gets rid of the traditional mechanical connections from pilot yoke out to the hydraulic controls near the flight controls (truly light airplanes don’t have hydraulics; there are simply cables or pushrods out to the flight controls and pilot muscle power is used to move them, though sometimes with the help of trim tabs that are powered by air rushing over the flying plane)). Hail can slam into the airplane and damage windshields, wing leading edges, etc. (most hail-damaged airplanes remain flyable, however) Thunderstorms can also generate airframe icing, which, if severe, may exceed an airplane’s anti-ice/de-ice capabilities. An airplane covered in ice cannot climb and cannot fly at slower airspeeds without entering an aerodynamic stall. (De-icing on a heavy turbojet-powered airplane such as the Airbus A320 is generally accomplished with compressed (“bleed”) air from the engines fed into metal tubes on the leading edges of the wings, tail, and engine cowlings.)

How does a pilot avoid dangerous weather like this? It is relatively easy flying over heavily settled regions such as North America and Europe where ground-based RADAR can see the rain and that turns into a map (example). If the airplane has a datalink of some sort, a slightly delayed version of the map can appear on a multi-function display along with the airplane’s planned course. There are some limitations of such maps, starting with the fact that the map is two-dimensional and there is no fine-grained information on cloud or thunderstorm tops. I have been at 20,000′ in clear New York air flying over a line of solid red and yellow (heavy rain) but the same flight in Texas over the same map image might have resulted in being in clouds/turbulence/rain/ice/etc. Airliners also have on-board weather RADAR that can look ahead and see if there is rain in a cloud, but these images require a lot of experience to interpret. Someone who flies at low altitudes around the Caribbean and Florida would be great at this. A modern jet pilot usually isn’t because, most of the time, jets climb out of the bad stuff so quickly. If you’re out in the middle of the ocean and can’t get an accurate map from ground-based stations, you might have to rely on the on-board RADAR (not sure if that was a factor here; the plane was never all that far from land, though I am not sure if Indonesia has invested in as many RADAR stations as we have (air traffic control RADAR is not set up to paint an accurate weather picture)).

So the specifics of the incident remain a mystery but even a modern airliner is no match for a real thunderstorm and there is some evidence that this flight encountered one.

Related:

  • my June 2009 posting on Air France 447 (post-crash speculation including “The autopilot tripped off in response to a failure or disagreement. This is normal behavior, though much more common in light airplanes than in jets. A couple of pilots who were tired and deprived of a natural horizon by the darkness, open ocean, and clouds, turned out not to be heroes, at least not this time. There is probably more to it, but this is my best guess.”
  • a May 2011 follow-up after the flight recorders had been recovered
  • thoughtful article by a retired 747 captain
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Reading List

Here are a couple of books that I have enjoyed reading recently….

Dept. of Speculationis a beautifully crafted novel about a university teacher in New York City whose husband is having an affair. Some samples of the writing:

Advice from Hesiod: Choose from among the girls who live near you and check every detail, so that your bride will not be the neighborhood joke. Nothing is better for man than a good wife, and no horror matches a bad one.

The baby’s eyes were dark, almost black, and when I nursed her in the middle of the night, she’d stare at me with a stunned, shipwrecked look as if my body were the island she’d washed up on.

And that phrase—“sleeping like a baby.” Some blonde said it blithely on the subway the other day. I wanted to lie down next to her and scream for five hours in her ear.

They have finally found a house, a brownstone with four floors and a garden, perfectly maintained, on the loveliest of blocks in the least anxiety producing of school districts, but now she finds that she spends much of her day on one floor looking for something that has actually been left on another floor.

Survival in space is a challenging endeavor. As the history of modern warfare suggests, people have generally proven themselves unable to live and work together peacefully over long periods of time. Especially in isolated or stressful situations, those living in close quarters often erupt into hostility.

The Buddha named his son Rahula, which means “fetter.” The Buddha left his wife when his son was two days old. He would never have attained enlightenment if he’d stayed, scholars say.

The husband sets up their old telescope. There is almost no light pollution here. The wife looks up at the sky. There are more stars than anyone could ever need.

The renowned Margaret Atwood has given us a linked set of short stories: Stone Mattress:

Before she finally cut him off, Gwyneth was in the habit of changing the bottom sheet to signal that at long last she was about to dole him out some thin-lipped, watery, begrudging sex on a pristine surface. Then she’d change the sheet again right afterwards to reinforce the message that he, Sam, was a germ-ridden, stain-creating, flea-bitten waste of her washing machine. She’d given up faking it – no more cardboard moaning – so the act would take place in eerie silence, enclosed in a pink, sickly sweet aura of fabric softener.

Irena should have cut him some slack in view of how close they were once, but no, Irena has a heart of asphalt, harder and drier and more sun-baked every year. Money has ruined her. His money, since it’s because of him that Irena and the other two are rich enough to afford those lawyers of theirs. Top-quality lawyers too, as good as his; not that he wants to get into a snarling, snapping, rending contest among lawyers. It’s the client who’s always the cracked-bone hyena’s breakfast: they take bites out of you, they nibble away at you like a sackful of ferrets, of rats, of piranhas, until you’re reduced to a shred, a tendon, a toenail. So he’s had to ante up, decade after decade; since, as they rightfully point out, in a court case he wouldn’t stand a chance.

She’s had enough of men for a while. She’s made an inner memo to renounce flirtations and any consequences that might result from them. She doesn’t need the cash, not any more. She’s not extravagant or greedy, she tells herself: all she ever wanted was to be protected by layer upon layer of kind, soft, insulating money, so that nobody and nothing could get close enough to harm her. Surely she has at last achieved this modest goal.

But old habits die hard, and it’s not long before she’s casting an appraising eye over her fleece-clad fellow-travellers dithering with their wheely bags in the lobby of the first-night airport hotel.

She’d chosen her acceptances with an eye to the medical condition involved, and once married she’d done her best to provide value for money. Each husband had departed not only happy but grateful, if a little sooner than might have been expected. But each had died of natural causes – a lethal recurrence of the heart attack or stroke that had hit him in the first place. All she’d done was give them tacit permission to satisfy every forbidden desire: to eat artery-clogging foods, to drink as much as they liked, to return to their golf games too soon. She’d refrained from commenting on the fact that, strictly speaking, they were being too zealously medicated. She’d wondered about the dosages, she’d say later, but who was she to set her own opinion up against a doctor’s? And if a man happened to forget that he’d already taken his pills for that evening and found them neatly laid out in their usual place and took them again, wasn’t that to be expected? Blood thinners could be so hazardous, in excess. You could bleed into your own brain. Then there was sex: the terminator, the coup de grace. Verna herself had no interest in sex as such, but she knew what was likely to work. “You only live once,” she’d been in the habit of saying, lifting a champagne glass during a candlelit supper and then setting out the Viagra, a revolutionary breakthrough but so troubling to the blood pressure. It was essential to call the paramedics in promptly, though not too promptly. “He was like this when I woke up” was an acceptable thing to say. So was “I heard a strange sound in the bathroom, and then when I went to look …” She has no regrets. She did those men a favour: surely better a swift exit than a lingering decline.

The Advanced Life wing [of a retirement home] is on a more frequent schedule; twice a day, she’s heard. Ambrosia Manor isn’t cheap, and the relatives would not take kindly to ulcerating rashes on their loved ones. They want their money’s worth, or so they’ll claim. What they most likely want in truth is a rapid and blame-free finish for the old fossils. Then they can tidy up and collect the remnants of the net worth – the legacy, the leftovers, the remains – and tell themselves they deserve it.

Note that the title story appeared in New Yorker and the full text is available online.

In my car I’m listening to Cleopatra: A Life, which is great for the context it provides on everyday life in ancient Egypt. The book also provides some contrast to modern media, which tends to portray women as powerless victims (see, for example, this article from today’s New York Times on gender gaps in the tech industry (footnote: the author doesn’t mention that if a woman in the main tech centers of California or Massachusetts wanted to have the spending power of a male tech entrepreneur she would simply need to have sex with three male tech entrepreneurs and then harvest the child support); also see this article about off-campus rape).

This New Yorker article on graphene was interesting. It shows just how long it takes for ideas to go from the lab to the local Walmart and also reminds us that newspapers invert their usual fondness for bad news when it comes to science. We hear about exciting new developments but we don’t hear about the practical problems. If you’re trying to finish writing a book, this one-page piece by Column McCann should be inspirational. “Can AIDS be Cured?” explains how the HIV virus can remain dormant in the human body and why it is so tough to eradicate (maybe a lot of viruses do that also? Lyme disease?).

Finally, if you’re a photographer and a parent check out Shutterfly’s ABC book template (under “Kids”). For about $20 (and one night staying up until 2:30 am poking through your photo library looking for images that are the right orientation and content), your toddler can have a custom book. (Feel free to supplement with any of my photos that you can find through my /stock engine.) “M is for Mindy the Crippler“…

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Why are soft serve ice cream machines so expensive?

Folks:

I want to serve gourmet Latin American food at an upcoming party. By “gourmet” of course I mean Sonoran hot dogs and Toblerone McFlurry (as served in Argentina) .

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To make the McFlurry I need soft serve ice cream. The only thing that I could find for home use was a Cuisinart that seems like an old Donvier with a motor to do the turning and a nozzle. I had hoped for a scaled-down version of what one sees in cafeterias. I poked around and discovered that those cost $6000. The question is why? How do they work? http://www.instructables.com/answers/How-do-soft-serve-icecream-machines-work/ talks about freezing, whipping, pressure, etc., which sounds complex but if the Japanese could design breadmakers to cost $200 why aren’t soft serve machines more affordable?

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Class D amplifier for home subwoofers?

I am experimenting with in-wall speakers in a new (sort of small) house. There are a couple of in-wall passive subwoofers that I need to drive with a power amp (since home theater receivers don’t include anything other than line-level subwoofer outputs, as far as I know). I might watch a movie once a week and therefore I don’t want to spend too much money and don’t want the IT closet heated up too much if the amp is left on. I’m wondering if a Class D amplifier if the solution. Here are some ridiculously cheap examples:

What’s wrong with this idea, if anything? Has anyone tried using one of these amps to drive a 10″ in-wall subwoofer or similar? I’m assuming that the power output numbers are completely fraudulent but I figure that even if I divide by four it will be enough power.

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Why is it hard for Yahoo to make more money?

The New York Times recently devoted a lot of ink to “Why Marissa Mayer is mediocre and couldn’t turn Yahoo around.” (See Thinking, Fast and Slow for “regression to the mean” and other reasons why sought-after job candidates often don’t work out that well; also see “America’s Worst CEOs: Where are they now?”)

Yahoo! has a huge audience and a very capable team of engineers. Computers and Internet applications generally don’t do what consumers want. Why is it hard for them to build the stuff that people want? For example, Yahoo Travel doesn’t seem to add anything to other travel booking sites (in fact they say it is “powered by hipmunk”), which means that it is okay for business travel (user tells server where he or she needs to go) but terrible for leisure travel (server should tell user where is best to go given date-time constraints and activities desired; see my February 2014 posting).

Yahoo Finance is the same as Google Finance (maybe because Google copied all of their features!). Why doesn’t the server ask you about your investment goals and tell you how much to invest and where to invest it? (if not specific funds then at least asset classes)

Yahoo Mail is the same as all of the other web-based email services (see this paper by Jin Choi on an RDBMS-backed email system from the late 1990s). Since Yahoo has a staff of capable managers in India, why don’t they offer a service where they’ll actually answer the email for customers? A personal assistant who can put stuff on the Yahoo calendar, delete spam that makes it through the filter, come up with a daily to-do list, organize parties from the contacts list, etc. It is a lot easier for Yahoo to hire and supervise an employee in India than it would be for an American consumer.

As a portal company Yahoo is uniquely positioned to offer something like the online community aggregation system I wrote about back in 2009. Instead they sat idly while Facebook drained users and page views away from all of the standalone online communities. But I still think it would be worth a few programmers.

Is it really the case that the superheroes at Google, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Uber have used up all the oxygen? It feels to me as though there is a lot of low-hanging fruit for a company with Yahoo’s resources.

What would readers do if they could push a few new products (or features for old products) out the door at Yahoo? I’ll start with a trivial one: add the ability to publish a narrated slide show from Flickr.

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Time is ripe for Cubans to become Medicare vendors

Now that the U.S. is taking steps toward normalizing relations with our cash-poor, doctor-rich neighbor to the southeast, I am hoping that the time is ripe for Medicare to begin using Cuban medical services, as proposed in a February 2013 posting. (See my health care reform proposal for some reasons why every other country can provide health care at a lower cost than us.)

As a taxpayer I am looking forward to complete normalization of ties with Cuba. Keeping Cuba around as an official enemy is a sad reminder of how little return we get on our military and CIA dollars. If we can’t make the Castro brothers do what we tell them to, why should any other political leader listen to us?

[Separately, a friend has just returned from a trip to Costa Rica where he and his wife had complicated dental surgery at a fraction of the cost quoted in Boston. How was it? Here’s how he responded to my emailed question…

I have had nothing but bad/horrendous dental care in the US (part of why I’m having to have so much work done), so the bar has not been set high. I have seen three different specialists from one practice- a cosmetic surgeon, a periodontist, and a general? dentist. They are all US-educated and teach at the university here. Their English is perfect, they are highly intelligent, articulate, and personable. Really, the best professional experience of any type I have ever had. Their office is in Escazu, which is the Weston of CR [Weston is a rich suburb of Boston]. Lots of rich CR clients, the practice is not really oriented towards foreigners, although they do that as well.

]

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Google Play Music for Classical Music Fans

Sonos replaced my dead eight-year-old player for a reasonable price (earlier post) and threw in a coupon for 60 days of unlimited Google Play Music. I decided to try out this competitor to Rhapsody, Spotify, Pandora, et al. I clicked on a classical “radio” station. Unlike any classical FM station, but like the other streaming services, this turns out to be classical tracks selected at random. So you might get the second part of a string quartet followed by the first part of a symphony composed 100 years earlier.

Is it illegal to stream complete classical albums or at least four tracks in a row so that listeners can hear a whole symphony? If not I can’t figure out why none of the streaming services offer this from their “radio” stations. (Paying Rhapsody customers can stream entire albums, so it definitely is not illegal if the user selects the music rather than the service/station.)

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