Thomas Piketty’s big book: why Europeans love socialism

I’ve started to read Capital in the Twenty-First Century, by Thomas Piketty. My iPad already feels heavier…

There is too much in this book to cover in one blog entry so I am going to save my readers the trouble of reading this massive tome with multiple postings.

Piketty says that Europeans and Americans have differing views on state ownership of industry and a planned economy because they had different growth rates during the heyday of government involvement in the economy:

Continental Europe and especially France have entertained considerable nostalgia for what the French call the Trente Glorieuses, the thirty years from the late 1940s to the late 1970s during which economic growth was unusually rapid.

In fact, when viewed in historical perspective, the thirty postwar years were the exceptional period, quite simply because Europe had fallen far behind the United States over the period 1914–1945 but rapidly caught up during the Trente Glorieuses. Once this catch-up was complete, Europe and the United States both stood at the global technological frontier and began to grow at the same relatively slow pace, …

In North America, there is no nostalgia for the postwar period, quite simply because the Trente Glorieuses never existed there: per capita output grew at roughly the same rate of 1.5–2 percent per year throughout the period 1820-2012.

These very different collective experiences of growth in the twentieth century largely explain why public opinion in different countries varies so widely in regard to commercial and financial globalization and indeed to capitalism in general. In continental Europe and especially France, people quite naturally continue to look on the first three postwar decades—a period of strong state intervention in the economy—as a period blessed with rapid growth, and many regard the liberalization of the economy that began around 1980 as the cause of a slowdown.

Do these political beliefs make sense? Piketty adopts the conventional attitude of a French academic, i.e., “most people are idiots”:

neither the economic liberalization that began around 1980 nor the state interventionism that began in 1945 deserves such praise or blame. France, Germany, and Japan would very likely have caught up with Britain and the United States following their collapse of 1914–1945 regardless of what policies they had adopted (I say this with only slight exaggeration). The most one can say is that state intervention did no harm.

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Book review: Great Texas Wind Rush

I just finished The Great Texas Wind Rush: How George Bush, Ann Richards, and a Bunch of Tinkerers Helped the Oil and Gas State Win the Race to Wind Power. The book is interesting because it shows what has to happen for wind power to work at all, e.g., someone needs to spend billions of dollars on transmission lines from where it is windy and people will tolerate noisy ugly windmills to where electricity consumers are most likely to live.

The author has a “nothing can happen without the government” attitude, which is substantially justified by the challenges of implementing wind power, e.g., forcing property owners to accept transmission lines across their land. The ability of consumers to respond to price signals is zero, in the author’s mind:

Americans, the most energy-guzzling people on earth, had finally figured out how to cut back. They bought more-fuel-efficient cars, under the government’s exhortations, and drove more slowly. They learned to turn off unnecessary lights. Some began buying more-energy-saving refrigerators, thanks to national appliance-efficiency requirements that came into effect in the 1980s.

The author suggests that the federal government is almost as useless as an individual American:

“The Department of Energy has a multibillion-dollar budget, in excess of $10 billion,” Reagan said in a debate with Carter in late October 1980. “It hasn’t produced a quart of oil or a lump of coal or anything else in the line of energy.” It certainly hadn’t produced much by way of wind energy, either. One of the oddities of the wind business is that the modern turbines of today are not descendants of the enormous experimental turbines that heavyweights like General Electric and Boeing and Alcoa and Westinghouse produced in the late 1970s, using millions of federal dollars. Those had experienced major technical problems and flopped.

Boeing struggled with dirt getting into hydraulic fluid. Alcoa, the aluminum giant, pulled out of the wind business soon after its solitary 500-kilowatt test turbine, shaped like a kitchen beater and erected in California’s San Gorgonio Pass, slung a blade at one of the wires holding it in place just a few hours after being turned on. Making matters worse, this occurred just before a high-profile wind conference featuring California governor Jerry Brown was due to convene. “I have some good news and some bad news,” Paul Vogsburgh of Alcoa announced to those assembled. “The bad news is that our wind turbine destroyed itself. The good news is that we did not have to evacuate Los Angeles.”

“It’s kind of strange,” says Vaughn Nelson, the retired director of the Alternative Energy Institute in Canyon. “The tract of development that led to the large megawatt machines today came from what we’d call the ground up of the small machines getting bigger [with] economies of scale, rather than starting with great big machines funded by government.

State governments, on the other hand, especially Texas, have managed to make things happen. Offshore wind in Texas has a much better chance of succeeding than in other states: “In a convenient quirk, Texas waters extend up to ten miles offshore, considerably farther than most states, due to historical reasons relating to how Texas joined the union. This means that developers like Schellstede had plenty of room to plant turbines without hitting federal waters and triggering a cascade of new rules. ”

Investment in wind power has been extremely risky. The author chronicles the IPO of Kenetech, a California wind turbine company: “Merrill Lynch foretold a hundredfold rise in Kenetech’s sales over three years.” They went bust a few years later. T. Boone Pickens plans the world’s largest wind farm:

A woman asked whether the giant windmills would make noise. “I’ve been a quail hunter since I was twelve, so my hearing isn’t worth a hoot,” Pickens told her. “If you’re getting royalties from it, it might have a real pleasant sound.” But the turbines have made no sound at all. Despite Pickens’s grand pronouncements, the Pampa wind project never got built, and in the corridors of wind conferences the mention of Pickens’s name soon brought snorts of irritation. A few months after his appearance at the Pampa auditorium, the price of natural gas began to plunge as the extent of the enormous new shale supplies became clear. As the price of gas fell it pulled the price of all forms of electricity down with it, and wind became less competitive. “When natural gas is $4.50 [per thousand cubic feet], it’s hard to finance a wind deal,” Pickens told the Texas Tribune in 2010, the same year he gave up the last of the leases on the Pampa land. “Natural gas has got to be $6.”

Do we really want this?

“Never in the history of the world have we put up 400-foot-tall blinking behemoths everywhere,” West Texas landowner Dale Rankin, who sued to stop the march of wind turbines over hillsides near his Abilene-area home, told the Austin-American Statesman in 2007. Living close to hundreds of turbines, Rankin said, is like being “next to an airport where the jets are running their engines all he time.” But in a state that welcomes development, Rankin’s lawsuit, the first significant one of its kind in Texas, failed in 2006.

And once we get it, will it free us from digging up fossil fuels and setting them on fire?

Indeed, on some windy nights when the blades are turning but electricity use is low, or when the grid is congested with lots of different plants offering power, parts of West Texas see “negative pricing,” in which wind plants pay a modest amount to offload their power (the federal production tax credit ensures it’s still worthwhile for them to do this).

When the wind does blow, it’s not necessarily at the most useful times, which makes Texas grid operators, even armed with constantly improving forecasting tools, wonder how much more wind they can handle without unbalancing their system. Sometimes things work out. In February 2011 wind farms all across Texas got praise for pumping large amounts of power into the electric grid during a deep freeze that managed to knock out a quarter of the state’s coal and gas power-plant units and caused rolling blackouts throughout the grid, even though a few turbines did go offline due to dangerously high winds and hydraulic-equipment freezes. But three years earlier, when a cold front moved through Texas and the winds died, the Texas grid operator, ERCOT, barely averted blackouts. (The wind industry says the cold front was predicted and the grid should have been prepared for it.) And on at least one scorching August afternoon in 2011, wind farms produced only about 1.3 percent of the grid’s electricty, prompting the National Review to run a piece headlined “Texas Wind Energy Fails Again,”

I recommend this book for software engineers. It shows just how much money and patience you need to achieve an impact in the world of energy.

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Talent Management in Silicon Valley

While on this trip to San Francisco I ran into a “talent management” consultant.

I asked What is that? “We help companies figure out how to recruit and retain employees.”

How much do companies pay for his services? “Certainly hundreds of thousands of dollars would be the minimum engagement.”

Why would they pay that much when there are 15 million unemployed Americans presumably eager for jobs? “If there is a talented person among those 15 million then my clients haven’t found him or her.”

[Separately, the Wikipedia article notes that this field was created by McKinsey in 1997, i.e., right about the time that Enron was organizing all of its incentive structures according to McKinsey advice (Guardian).]

What kinds of companies are most interested in talent management? “We get a lot of technology companies. They have tremendous trouble with retention. There is no loyalty in Silicon Valley. Companies are paying signing bonuses of $100,000 and more. Before making real money people used to have to work for years, wait for stock options to vest, and hope for a startup to succeed. Today there are engineers at big companies earning $1 million and more as straight salary and bonus.”

A Mountain View resident confirmed that non-managerial engineers could easily earn $400,000 per year at Google or Apple [a huge step up from the 1980s, when a top engineer might have earned the equivalent of about $140,000 in today’s dollars] but thought that $1 million was rare. Why weren’t more people studying engineering trying to get in on this? “You have to remember that the cost of living here is crazy high. A decent house is $2 million. You pay the highest tax rates in the U.S., outside of New York City. There are very few women who want to hang around in the Valley longer than necessary to get pregnant and collect child support. You’ll be working and/or commuting through horrible traffic 60-80 hours a week, mailing child support checks to an address in Santa Cruz or Napa, then going home to your lonely single guy apartment.”

[Fact check from the Web:

  • Zillow says the median home value in Palo Alto is $1.8 million ($1118/square foot; the median includes condos). A single-family home in Mountain View, on the other hand, has a median price of $1.35 million.
  • See the San Jose Mercury News for some traffic data.
  • According to https://www.cse.ca.gov/ChildSupport/cse/guidelineCalculator , a one-night encounter with a Silicon Valley engineer earning $400,000 per year and paying a mortgage on that “decent house” would yield tax-free child support of about $43,000 per year ($777,600 over 18 years). This is roughly the after-tax median household income for Californians ($61,400 pre-tax according to the Census Bureau, fed into the ADP calculator) and could be doubled or tripled by having additional children with additional engineers.
  • This article talks about working hours at Apple.

]

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How to give money to friends’ children without a college stealing it?

I am friendly with some children (centered around age 10) whose parents are in poor health and at least one of whom probably won’t survive until the children are college age. I would like to give these kids some money but I am concerned that if I did it will simply be taken away from them roughly 1:1 by their college in the form of reduced financial aid.

This Yale article says that “Student assets are assessed in the financial aid formula at a much higher 20 percent rate…” Does that mean that over a four-year period, 80 percent of a child’s savings will be taken by the college in the form of reduced financial aid? So a child who takes my money and spends it all on a gap year Burning Man pavilion will come out, after college, almost even with a child who saves the money until freshman year?

This article on grandparent-owned 529 accounts implies that funds in a 529 account owned by a non-relative would be safe if not tapped until senior year.

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Shopping list: four helicopters, but don’t spend more than $1.24 billion

During the reign of King Bush II, I wrote about the proposed $400 million new presidential helicopter (March 2008 posting), a pimped-out variant of the standard EH101 that Wikipedia says costs $21 million when customers buy it from Eurocopter/Airbus instead of from Lockheed Martin. It seems that under Barack Obama, the government and its contractors have become more efficient. The new Marine One helicopter will be a tweaked Sikorsky S-92, which have a list price of around $30 million each when they are bought by companies that need to fly out to oil rigs. This press release says that the federal government will get four pimped-out S-92s for only about $300 million each, with options to buy 17 more at an undisclosed (undetermined?) price. The Wikipedia page on the VXX program says that about $1.7 billion was spent on the old plan before it was scrapped and that the projected costs of the old program doubled before it was canceled.

Related: my 2009 offer to pay personally for all presidential helicopter transport, saving the taxpayers about $1 billion per year.

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Montgomery Ward catalog from 1960

Check out these photos from the Montgomery Ward 1960 Fall and Winter catalog. Here are some things that I found interesting:

  • nothing could be more wholesome for a mass market retailer than a father and son going out to kill birds with a pair of shotguns (there was no suggestion of mom and sister joining!)
  • as part of its full-service ethos, the store would loan you whatever tools you needed to do a home repair/install job
  • sales tax in New York City was 3% (today: 8.875%), in Connecticut 3% (today: 6.35%), in Rhode Island 3% (today: 7%)…
  • a subset of the functions of a modern mobile phone could be obtained at the following costs:
    • Rolleiflex still camera (uses “popular 127 film“): $68.50
    • Movie camera: $100
    • Movie projector: $100
    • Smith-Corona portable typewriter (only 21 lbs!): $119.50
    • Audio recorder (open-reel): $280
    • Portable television (“so light” at only 33 lbs.): $158

(total: $826 or $6594 in 2014 dollars)

  • bathing oneself in ultra-violet light was considered “healthful”
  • a person over 35 was considered “geriatric”
  • you could order a 10×40′ steel building kit for $383
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Does HD radio actually work anywhere in the U.S.?

I rented a Chevrolet Impala in Orlando last week. Orlando would seem to be one of the best places on Earth for radio reception, with the largest hill being about 10′ taller than the surrounding terrain. The car came with an HD radio. When I would tune in a station, the radio would display “Acquiring HD signal” and then sometimes switch to the same sound but at a different volume level. An HD-only station, 90.7 HD-2 classical, would cut in and out for no apparent reason. It was basically impractical. Is there something particular about Orlando or the Chevrolet that makes HD radio more challenging? Or is it broken everywhere and for everyone?

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Garry Winogrand show at the National Gallery of Art

For one more month the National Gallery is showing Garry Winogrand’s photos (exhibit home page).

Given that Winogrand worked with handheld 35mm black and white, why not simply look at the excellent books that are out there? The show does offer some interesting additional material. Probably the most significant extra is a video of Winogrand answering questions from students at Rice University (see it by following a link from the above exhibit home page). Winogrand talks about how he learned from doing, not from being taught.

If you know someone who is considering marrying a photographer and relying on that person’s income, the letter from Judy Teller on display may be a welcome caution. It seems that Teller was married to Winogrand in 1967 and divorced in 1969. In the letter, a demand for post-divorce cash, she complains of his grandiose ideas of the success that was always just around the corner. She notes that the culture at the time required a man to support his ex-wife, in particular because he had caused her to waste her prime child-bearing years (she was 28 years old at the time and did not have any children).

The exhibit shows a Guggenheim application where Winogrand explains what he wants to do (transcription here). The application is roughly 50 years old and it is interesting to see that what Winogrand thought was a crisis turned out to be a lifestyle to which Americans had no trouble adapting. (“Since World War II we have seen the spread of affluence, the move to the suburbs and the spreading of them, the massive shopping centers to serve them, cars for to and from. … Our aspirations and successes have been cheap and petty. I read the newspapers, the columnists, some books, and I look at some magazines (our press). They all deal in illusions and fantasies. I can only conclude that we have lost ourselves, …”

DSC00854

Related: my own street photography article.

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Book review: You Should Have Known

A positive magazine review induced me to declare that You Should Have Known would be my one mystery novel for the year. The protagonist is a marriage therapist in Manhattan who writes a book about how women should have been able to predict, by carefully listening to the man they were were dating, exactly how that man would turn out to be an inadequate husband. The Manhattan men in the book do turn out not to have been prizes. Either they aren’t supportive enough emotionally (therapist’s remedy: divorce them) or they are having affairs. The ones who were secretly gay and are having affairs with other men are fairly harmless. When the men are having affairs with women, however, children are often the result and that leads to drama.

The first half of the book is interesting for its depiction of people finding out that they don’t know the folks around them as well as they thought (hint: the therapist finds out that her husband had a secret or two). The latter portion is seriously marred by a woman whose problems are solved by … finding a man. This is a sensitive non-threatening man who seems to be in touch with his feminine side, mind you, but there is no explanation of why this guy is trustworthy where all of the others turned out to be secretly gay/cheating/whatever.

Another interesting angle in the book is the lack of any security in a modern marriage (at least when one of the partners is a man). In New York, in the scenarios covered by the author, a woman who is married to a man has only a weak claim on his income, for example. If he has been exploring the town and quietly getting other women pregnant, it is the other women who have first bite at the guy’s income (example: by statute, Child Support Plaintiff #1 will get 17% of the man’s pre-tax income; Plaintiff #2 will get 17% of the remaining 83%; Plaintiff 3 will get 17% of 0.83 squared; after federal and state taxes, then, that leaves basically nothing for the wife and any children with that wife (also nothing for any fourth plaintiff)).

Finally there is the angle of therapy and therapists. Are they helpful because they wise? Are they helpful because attending psychotherapy sessions forces clients to focus and reflect? Or are therapists simply not helpful for most people?

The book could be better-written and better-crafted but it can be thought-provoking and it held my attention on a commercial airline flight.

What I’m reading now:The Great Texas Wind Rush

[Some excerpts, added by reader demand!

Inside the courtyard [of the fancy Manhattan private school], on the privileged side of the velvet rope, Grace saw that there were very few nannies in evidence. The concerned mothers of Rearden seemed to have decided, en masse, that some moments in a child’s life, like Max’s first school murder or Chloe’s first media circus, were just too sensitive to leave to a surrogate. So the mothers themselves had dropped everything and were here for their children, waiting for the kids to be released by Robert Conover’s grief counselors.

[the protagonist’s theme for her book] You knew he was in debt: You’re the one who paid off his Visa bill! You knew that when he went out at night he came back plastered. You knew he thought you weren’t up to his level intellectually, because he went to Yale and you went to U Mass. And if you didn’t know, you should have known, because it could not have been clearer, even back then at the very start.

[a friend reviews history with a woman who made an ill-advised marriage decision] I asked you to tell me what it was you loved about him, and then I asked you to tell me, for every one of those things, how you knew they were true. And you said, more or less, because they just were. And I asked you why you thought he was so estranged from his family. Why he seemed to have no other friends. I asked you if you were worried about how quickly he’d kind of become the most important person in your life. I asked you if the reason he seemed so perfect for you was that you had made it really clear to him what perfect for you meant, and he gave you back exactly what you wanted,

]

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