The 2010 Toyota Corolla

My rental car here in Phoenix is a 2010 Toyota Corolla. It is a reasonably nice car, but once again I am struck by the lack of innovation in the car industry. It is as though the semiconductor revolution never occurred. The car is seemingly identical to a compact car from 1985. The climate control is the same (no thermostat). The radio is the same (AM, FM, CD; no HD radio, no satellite radio). The Internet connectivity is the same (none). The navigation capability is the same (none). The monitoring and recording capabilities are the same, i.e., none (you’d expect by now cars to have some cheap video cameras to record the lead-up to crashes, to warn of lane departures, etc.).

The only reason that the owner of a 25-year-old car would upgrade to this 2010 Corolla would be if the 25-year-old car had fallen apart. So… as car makers improve durability they are digging their own graves as far as sales are concerned.

Update: The book Traffic: Why We Drive the Way We Do cites research from both Norway and the U.S. that found people were more likely to crash and more likely to be injured in newer cars compared to older cars. This was adjusted for miles driven. (This is a response to folks commenting that the 2010 Toyota is worth 30X as much as a roadworthy 1985 Toyota because it has better safety features.)

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Phoenix real estate and reality

Top of my reading list here in Phoenix is The Greatest Trade Ever, about many of the folks who profited from the inability of Phoenicians to pay their subprime mortgages. The value of a house here is down about 50 percent from the peak (chart). Being a tourist in town, one does wonder why investors thought that the citizens of Phoenix were sufficiently educated and clever to earn enough to pay off such expensive houses. Here’s a sampling of the local labor force:

  • waiter at $300/night Montelucia resort could not pronounce “pinot noir” and knew less than nothing about the food that was being prepared in the kitchen
  • waiter at $300/night Arizona Biltmore brought bone-dry Cobb salad to the table with no dressing and no bread
  • waitress at a Mexican restaurant decided that two water glasses would be adequate for a party of six (we can’t blame the Mexican schools for this one; she was about as white-bread an American as can fit into a pair of mule-sized blue jeans)
  • Enterprise rental car agency delivered car with liquid spilled coffee in cupholders and various other parts of the interior

The incompetence of the average worker here ended up being inspiring. If people like this can have jobs, the U.S. economy can’t be doing that badly. On the other hand, I wouldn’t be relying on them to make mortgage payments.

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The greenhorn and the rattlesnake in Phoenix

My friend David had a business trip out to Phoenix and I decided to tag along. This morning we went for a walk up to the Sears-Kay Ruin. As we prepared for the 10-minute stroll through the desert, his wife asked me “Do you think there are rattlesnakes up here?” I replied confidently that there was no need to worry because the trail was so heavily traveled.

When we got to the top, a local pointed out a 5′-long rattlesnake in the brush just a few feet from the trail. “We had one about that size in our garage in North Scottsdale,” he noted. “I pulled him out of the garage with a rake, but he just kept wanting to go back in. So I shot him with a .22.”

Other wildlife seen on the walk: An Arizona Giant Centipede (venomous, of course), a bunny, a few lizards, and a German Shorthaired Pointer (whose presence caused the rattlesnake to activate his rattle).

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Flannery O’Connor Immersion

I just finished reading Flannery: A Life of Flannery O’Connor, the 2009 biography that had gotten such great reviews everywhere, supplemented by The Habit of Being: Letters of Flannery O’Connor. I had always loved her work, but knew nothing about the author. It saddened me to learn that she had died at age 39, a victim of lupus. Being a significant contributor to American culture seems to be hazardous; George Gershwin died after about 39 years as well (of a brain tumor).

Brad Gooch’s achievement as a biographer is too complex to summarize in a blog posting, but I will say that I learned a bit about what enabled Flannery O’Connor to become one of America’s greatest writers at a young age. She kept her life monkishly simple, with few possessions, no spouse, and no children. She almost always had friends or family who took care of her basic needs, which freed her to block out two hours every day in which to write. Her mind was not cluttered with calling the plumber, straightening out the cable TV bill, preparing tax returns, running after children, etc.

The biography is highly recommended for those who are interested in the literary life of mid-century America (O’Connor lived from 1925 to 1964). It is also interesting for its exploration of Southern writing, e.g., Walker Percy and William Faulkner. Finally the book is interesting because O’Connor’s last decade overlapped with the beginning of radically changed relations between blacks and whites in the U.S. and in the South.

The funniest letters in the collection are replies to English Literature professors from O’Connor. It is rare that a living writer is confronted with academic interpretations of his or her work. In the case of O’Connor, it seems that the Ph.D.s teaching her work to young people expended a lot of effort and yet failed to comprehend anything that she was trying to communicate. (This subject is also treated in the Rodney Dangerfield movie Back to School when Kurt Vonnegut is brought in to confront the professors who’ve been teaching his novels.)

Now it is time to reread Flannery O’Connor : Collected Works.

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Obama: Big government protects us from floods

It was a perfect day for helicopter intro lessons today, but some of the Groupon customers will have to wait a bit longer before taking the controls of an East Coast Aero Club Robinson R44. Barack Obama came to our city to attend two fundraising events. Having been shut down by the temporary flight restriction put in place, I became interested in what Obama had to say. In this video, Obama talks about how the Massachusetts flood shows the value of Big Government. Without Big Government, he says, we wouldn’t be able to handle Nature’s wrath. This struck me as odd because, though we are new to our suburban neighborhood, we’ve gotten so many offers of help from neighbors (they’re aware that our house is right next to a pond and, indeed, the pond has expanded to cover parts of the driveway). Had our house been flooded, we would not need to go to a government-run shelter because at least four or five of our neighbors would be willing to take us in until the waters subside.

I’ll be the first to admit that we need Big Government if we are to bring democracy to 31 million Iraqis (there were a lot fewer when we invaded, but the Iraqis have been prolific (older posting)). But isn’t it kind of insulting to suggest that Americans wouldn’t be willing to help their neighbors and therefore the government must step in to deal with heavy rains that seriously affect perhaps 1 in 100 households?

[I might add that approximately one percent of the people I know in Massachusetts had a serious problem, e.g., a flooded basement that destroyed their furnace and/or hot water heater. In no case did they get any help from a government worker. In no case did they get any help from an insurance company (there is some fine print in the standard contract that excludes flood damage). They got help pumping out from neighbors, family, and friends.]

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The latest Navteq GPS DVD for my Infiniti

Excited because the dealership was able to vacuum most of the water out from the interior of my Infiniti M35x (due to a leak in the sunroof drain system, which took two Infiniti dealers three years to debug, it used to smell like mildew; now it smells like mildew and the alcohol that they used, a month ago, to try to remove the mildew), I decided to splurge on an updated Navteq 7.5 map and point of interest DVD. It cost $120 including tax and delivery, i.e., about the same as a portable Garmin or Droid phone. The Navteq DVD was released in 2009, so I figured maybe it would have a better database than the 2006 DVD included with the car. I popped the new DVD in and tried searching for my friendly local hardware store. This is a small neighborhood place that we call “The Natick Home Depot”. It hadn’t been in the old database. Nor was it on the new disk, which did have directions to some Home Depots, but not the one in Natick, MA. Perhaps the store was fairly new. I called them up and asked when it was established. The woman who answered the phone said “I’ve worked here for 9 years, but the store has been here for about 15.”

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Why no telepresence coaching for tennis?

It costs between $25,000 and $50,000 to build a tennis court. The extra cost for a few webcams and a bullhorn should be less than $1000. There are a lot of great tennis players and coaches in India, Eastern Europe, and Latin America. Instead of hiring an American teacher for $40-80 per hour, why wouldn’t someone hire an overseas tennis teacher for $5 per hour? The teacher could watch both players and give instructions through the bullhorn, e.g., “follow through”, “watch the ball”, “step with the other foot”.

Bonus: the overseas teachers could also serve as impartial line judges and scorekeepers. At a lot of tennis clubs, people are paying $20 per hour for court time so the $5 extra cost of the teacher/judge would not be significant.

You would think that this idea would be popular for almost any sport in which players stand in predictable locations, e.g., near golf tees, yet I don’t think that the service exists.

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Thoughts on the health care bill in its final form

Friends have been asking lately what I think of the health care bill, now that it has passed (and bears no resemblance to my own health care reform plan). Of course, like the legislators who voted it into law, I have not read the 1000 pages and truly have no idea what the intended and unintended implications might be. But I do get the main point: as a society we will be spending an extra $1 trillion on health care that we wouldn’t have spent previously. This is the part that strikes me as a non sequitur to the debate.

For the past few years we’ve been hearing about how inefficient and ineffective the American health care industry is. We spend ten times as much per capita as Mexico, for example, and achieve a similar life expectancy. We spend two or three times as much per capita as a lot of industrialized nations, are less healthy, and are tortured by paperwork and bureaucracy. If you heard about an industry that was this uncompetitive internationally, the next thing that you’d expect to hear would be “and this is how it is moving offshore” or “and that is why people are choosing to spend less money on this service.”

The logical punchline to the health care discussion should have been “The U.S. health care industry has not been able to deliver most services in an affordable way, so it is going to concentrate on emergency care and simple checkups and screening tests. Ambulatory patients who require surgery will walk into their local airport instead of their local hospital. A Boeing 747 [a product that we are pretty good at making] will take them to a country where they’ve figured out how to take care of people without bankrupting them.”

It is odd that Americans seem intent on believing that we can somehow “fix” our health care industry through clever command-and-control bureaucracy sitting at desks in Washington, D.C., and that this question is worthy of national debate. Imagine if we were buying flat-screen televisions, PCs, and mobile phones made in the U.S. by government and insurance company contractors. An average family’s consumer electronics budget would now be $100,000. Would it be worth debating why these companies needed to charge $100,000 for something that could be purchased from overseas for $2,000? Or would it be more productive simply to import those goods and concentrate on doing other things in the U.S.?

So… for those who have asked. My reaction to the health care bill is bewilderment. We heard all about how much money the U.S. health care industry was wasting. Then our political leaders decided to give the industry an extra $1 trillion. The money is coming from tax increases, so presumably it is being diverted from products and services that American consumers would willingly purchase from efficient and competitive suppliers.

[There does seem to be precedent for this. We heard about how Wall Street and Fannie Mae executives exposed their shareholders to enormous risks so that they could have a chance at earning billions of dollars in bonuses. The industry was fully exposed as a means of transferring shareholder wealth into employee pockets. Plainly shareholders would have been better off investing in German and Chinese financial services firms. The seemingly logical response to the situation would have been to let the insolvent Wall Street banks disappear and be replaced by prudently managed American and foreign banks (this would have required no government intervention). What did Congress and the Federal Reserve Bank do instead? Toss trillions of tax dollars onto the Wall Street bonfire (see my review of It Takes a Pillage).]

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Thanks to the people who designed and built our house back in 1968

Living on a hillside, with a lot of hydraulic pressure from the uphill slope against the concrete foundation, I am feeling very grateful to the engineers and concrete workers who built the walls and the slab of our 1968 classic Deck House. A flooded basement is truly bad news in a house like ours, where half of the living space is in what most folks would regard as the basement. We have a lot of new materials and knowledge, but it seems as though hard work and intelligence forty years ago counted for something.

So far, despite the heaviest rains in approximately 100 years, I can’t find a drop of water up against the foundation. The 1968 septic system has not overflowed either.

So… to those unknown concrete technicians: thank you.

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First 15 Groupon Helicopter Students Graduate

Today was the first ground school for the 2600 introductory helicopter lessons that we sold through Groupon. Fifteen students showed up somewhat bleary-eyed at 9 am. Contrary to dire predictions at the instructors’ meeting last night, nobody fell asleep and in fact people seemed enthusiastic about learning all of the new material. A young motorcycle-riding kid was overheard to say “It was pretty technical, but I found the explanations very interesting, even the physics.”

Our 25-question graduation exam turned out to be a good screening tool. Three students got more than 7 questions wrong and we sat down with them for an additional 45 minutes to address their points of confusion (two of them were non-native English speakers). After that everyone was signed off and all but two were able to fly this afternoon (the weather happens to be perfect today).

The instructors in the helicopters report that these are among the best-briefed intro students that they’ve flown with. The customers, debriefed after the flight said it was “awesome” or they were “addicted” or they wanted to continue all the way to a career as a helicopter pilot (admittedly that guy came in with the idea in the back of his head).

We are, of course, right now seeing the eager beavers who did the reading and immediately registered for ground school. But so far I am encouraged.

Videos:

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