Two-party election in a one-party state: the Massachusetts Senate race

One of the luxuries of living in a one-party state is that one need not pay attention to politics. Presidential candidates do not campaign here. Representatives and Senators, secure of being reelected, ignore communications from constituents other than large donors. Our TV and radio pleasure is not interrupted by political ads. We get to enjoy the full use of our airports and highways, without roadblocks and restrictions put up by the Secret Service. We can concentrate on our work, friends, hobbies, and family.

This charmed life has been rudely interrupted by the special Senate election for a successor to Ted Kennedy. Polls indicate that Republican Scott Brown has some conceivable chance of beating Democrat Martha Coakley, challenging the conventional wisdom that a Republican has a better chance of being hit by a meteor than of being elected to the U.S. Senate from Massachusetts. One thing that the polls do not show is the huge number of voters who know nothing about either Brown or Coakley. They may not even know that an election is scheduled. However, when they drive by a school on their way to the supermarket and see a “vote today” sign, they will go into the booth and, just as illiterate Indians back in the 1960s looked for the hand symbol and voted for Indira Gandhi’s Congress Party, will vote for the party in which they are registered (in the case of Massachusetts, overwhelmingly Democrat).

The mailbox is stuffed full of appeals to vote for Coakley, each one from a different organization or committee. Each appeal is a four-color glossy double-sided 8.5×11″ sheet. Presumably the fear is that voters wouldn’t be motivated enough to open an envelope. There are photos of the hated King Bush II and Scott Brown is identified as a Republican. Radio stations are filled with ads by Coakley and affiliated groups. I haven’t heard any ads that say anything positive about Coakley; they all concentrate on what is bad about Brown. Mostly what is bad is that he is a Republican. The word is repeated like a curse in every sentence: “Republican Scott Brown is a Republican who will go to Washington and vote with the Republicans, just as he has voted with Republicans in the state senate.” The “do not call” registry does not apply, apparently, to political harangues, so the home phone has been ringing every day for two weeks. Machines with Obama’s voice urge us to vote for Coakley. People call up and ask us to campaign for Coakley. Friends have emailed asking me to campaign for Coakley.

[The Brown campaign, by contrast, must have only a tiny fraction of the financial resources. I have not heard a single ad for Brown and have not received anything in the mail promoting Brown. No Brown supporters or automated machines have called the home phone.]

So I finally decided to have a look at Coakley’s resume. She is a lawyer who has spent nearly her entire professional life collecting a government paycheck. It is difficult to see how she would add a new perspective to a U.S. Senate already stuffed with people who have similar backgrounds. Why should we have to give up our leisure time to assist with her promotion within the Party? The Russians under the old Soviet Union did not volunteer to get out the vote for the Communist Party. Coakley will win, but do we have to miss an episode of South Park?

[I also looked for the first time at Brown’s biography the other day. He is also a lawyer. The biggest knock against him is that he has spent 15 years as a Republican in the Massachusetts legislature, both in the house and senate. Aside from collecting a fat salary and generous pension, what would motivate a person to do that? The legislature meets all year every year. As it has been controlled by Democrats for decades, the meetings serve no purpose. The Party’s senior officials could decide what they want to do with the state, write it up in one big document, and have the Democrat-controlled legislature approve it in one hour. A Republican has the right to collect a paycheck, the right to attend votes, the right to sit in on some meetings, but could not possibly influence the outcome in any way (and indeed his Web site does not claim that he ever got any specific law passed). If Brown wanted to accomplish anything as a politician, he would have had to move to New Hampshire or switch to the ruling party. But he did not do either of those things, which means that he has essentially done nothing for a good chunk of his professional life.]

Terrified that the reliable sheep of Massachusetts will stray from the Democrat flock, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama are visiting this weekend. Thousands of Secret Service goons have converged on the state, commercial flights from Logan will be interrupted, and the area flight schools are all shut down due to temporary flight restrictions (massive economic losses right there) in order to prevent the nation’s most faithful Democrats from shooting the nation’s most beloved Democratic politicians.

For decades the Democrats have been taxing the citizens of Massachusetts and handing the money out to their cronies. Now they are wasting our time as well.

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Report from Ile de la Gonave, Haiti

Below is an email from a friend of a friend who works at a school in Ile de la Gonave, Haiti, an island to the northwest of the capital (map).

I was on the second floor of LKM’s round building when the earthquake passed. We were conducting an interview with Artis Fanm [link?], in the middle of asking questions when the entire building began shaking. The seven of us looked at each other briefly before shooting out the door and down the stairs. We were sure it was the school building that was falling down, and were unaware of any outside force. Once we reached the ground several of us fell to the floor, shaking, praying, scared. Moments later other people’s reports made it clear that it was not the school, but an earthquake. People were indeed afraid, but I was reassured that small tremors happen every once in a while in the area. After a few minutes it was clear that this was not one of these small tremors. A few houses in the area, those built with rocks as opposed to cinder blocks, had fallen in. Luckily there were almost no people injured. A small child was hit by some rocks, but it was not serious. I was with a mother who had not seen her children, and we set off down the road to find them. We were unsure of the destruction, everyone on the road was laughing mimicking the way they had almost fallen down, getting back to what they had been doing, playing dominoes, or giving a friend a haircut.

Upon arriving at the school we checked the internet and turned on the radio. These connections made it clear what was happening. The ground continued to give out small shakes, not regularly, but pretty often. People refused to enter into buildings, unsure of whether or not the worst was over. Upon receiving news however, the immediate reaction was to call people in Port-au-Prince, family and friends, to find out whatever news they could. The phones, however, had shaky service at best. Only one of the three major carriers was working. In Haiti, almost every andeyo, or in-the-country, has people or a large part of their family in the city. We received word from a few, very few, that they were alright, many calls went unanswered. Now, two days later, people are standing, grouped together in the place that gets the best telephone service, calling in vain, on cellphones that are not working, searching for people. This, it seems, is the biggest problem, a huge lack of communication.

As night began to fall everyone grouped together in the yard of the school, listening to the radio or getting the latest news from the people with computers in their hands. People were very afraid to enter their houses. The majority of people slept outside or did not sleep at all. The radio has been on nonstop, but has been little actual help to the people in Matenwa, in terms of getting specific news.

Now, it is still a question of getting information from Port-au-Prince, about family members. That is the most pressing thing in Matenwa, people are worried, scared, and helpless. As of yesterday, there has been a complete outage in telephone communication. The one carrier that was working no longer has signal. The night after the earthquake the streets were filled with people singing and praying together.

The biggest issue for Matenwa and Lagonave will be one of finding food and other resources. People here are already hungry. It is very difficult to find cooking oil and other necessities, as the merchants who travel back and forth from the mainland have stopped. All places removed from the city are sure to experience these difficulties, but Lagonave, an hour long ferry ride away will be especially bad. The already poor infastructure leading to the Islandwas shattered, and people are afraid to leave. The one person to arrive in the community from Port-au-Prince, met Enel, reported walking over dead bodies and walking most of the hour long, by car, trip to Carries, and finding only the sailboat running to Lagonave. The reality has not really set in. Looking across to the mainland, one would never know what had happened. As I write, there are still slight tremors. In the library of the school, as soon as they happen, everyone picks up and runs towards the door. On Lagonave we will wait and see. It is still early, but already the lack of food and supplies can be felt. The price of rice has already gone up 20% in the area. It will be very difficult here. The shortage of food, is sure to affect everyone here and with no connection to the mainland it is unclear when or how it will be resolved.

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MIT produces a 150-page report on faculty skin tone

About 20 of America’s self-described smartest people spent more than 2.5 years counting faculty noses at MIT and tabulating by skin tone, producing a 150-page report complete with four-color cover: “the report of the Initiative on Faculty Race and Diversity”. If you’d always wanted to know what percentage of faculty in MIT’s Urban Planning department described themselves as “Asian”, this is the document you’ve been waiting for. If you worried about how many dark-skinned MIT employees were born in the U.S. compared to how many immigrated from overseas, the answers are here. President Hockfield was so proud of this report that she made sure that all alumni were spammed about its availability.

Considering that this was prepared by a group of people who work with numbers all day every day, the statistical errors are remarkable. For example, the percentage of Hispanics in the U.S. population is compared with the percentage of Hispanics on the MIT faculty. An underlying assumption of this report is that it is important to have more native-born Hispanics teaching at MIT; immigrant Hispanics are disfavored for some reason. What’s wrong with comparing the prevalence of Hispanics in the overall population to the prevalence on the MIT faculty? The median age of a native-born Hispanic in the U.S. is 17 (source); the median age of an MIT professor is somewhere between 55 and dead (and likely to go to “beyond the grave” now that we’ve melted down all U.S. retirement assets). If a 15-year-old Hispanic girl is not teaching at MIT, can we infer ethnic bias?

My favorite part of the report is “An example from a peer research institution is the University of Michigan, where highly respected non-minority faculty were engaged as both consultants and advocates to address and champion diversity and excellence across campus.” In Gratz v. Bollinger, this exemplar institution was found guilty of unconstitutional race discrimination by the U.S. Supreme Court.

Question One is why the Ku Klux Klan was not hired to produce this report. Like the University of Michigan, the Klan has been convicted of race discrimination in a variety of federal courts. The Klan has always had a passionate interest in skin color and ethnicity. The Klan is also committed to advancing the interests of native-born Americans over immigrants (source). The Klan would probably have charged a lot less than the committee of PhDs and would no doubt have included a bonus section on the number of Jewish faculty members in different departments.

Question Two is why the report does not consider whether MIT is unfairly underpaying professors of color. The report states that black, American Indian, and native-born Hispanic professors have more value to the school than white and Asian professors. Yet there is nothing in the report about professors “of color” (the report’s term) being paid more than their less valuable colleagues. If a black professor is paid the same as a white professor, he or she is being exploited. The report also complains that MIT has an insufficient number of professors of color. Certainly there are plenty of black, Hispanic, and American Indian professors around the world. If they’ve chosen to work at some school other than MIT it might be because that other school recognizes their value and compensates them accordingly. Were MIT serious about increasing the number of professors with a particular skin tone, it would offer to pay such workers more.

[Suppose that a clothing manufacturer in Maine had the same problem. The only people who applied for jobs as models were white and the company wanted to be able to sell its products to people with different skin colors. The company would not wring its hands and cluck disapprovingly for decades. Nor would it pay 20 PhDs to spend 2.5 years writing a 150-page report. The company would raise the price it was willing to pay for models “of color” and, within a few days, a diverse group of models would find it worthwhile to drive up from New York City.]

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Analysis of home prices in terms of weeks of work

This Wall Street Journal article has an interesting analysis of U.S. home prices in terms of how many weeks an average American would have to work to pay for the mortgage on a house or for the house itself. The conclusion is that houses are cheap and therefore should not fall further in value. Nowhere in this analysis does the author, Brett Arends, consider the employment situation. If median earnings for those who continue to be in the workforce remain the same but 2 million more Americans lose their jobs, that’s approximately 1 million mortgages that won’t be paid. There isn’t a lot of demand for new or upgraded housing from unemployed people, who ultimately will have to move in with relatives.

[Note that stable wages for those with political power, but an ever-larger group of potential workers thrown under the bus is exactly what Mancur Olson predicted.]

The author treats Boston and New York City as anomalies, saying that because housing prices haven’t fallen as much they still might fall farther. To me, however, what distinguishes New York City from Miami or Las Vegas is that nearly $1 trillion of tax dollars have been sent to New York, a percentage of which turned into Wall Street bonuses, a percentage of which turned into demand for housing. Boston has an unusual number of industries that can survive the collapse of the rest of the U.S. economy, e.g., universities that can admit foreign students, biotech firms that develop drugs for world markets, and multinational high-tech firms such as EMC.

Is a house in Michigan cheap? Not if the number of houses exceeds the number of jobs. In that case, the value of an extra house is $0.

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Washington, D.C. is the most productive area of the U.S.

One of my Berkeley friends, apparently having forgiven me for my less than flattering portrait of his town, sent me http://super-economy.blogspot.com/2010/01/dynamic-america-poor-europe.html . What struck me about this page is the second table, in which the GDP per capita of various U.S. states are presented. It turns out the citizens of Washington, D.C. are more than three times as productive as the average American. This despite the fact that Washington has a lot of poor and/or unemployed people.

Perhaps we have to reevaluate our view of government workers and lobbyists as parasites. These people are actually the nation’s most productive people! Alternatively, we might need to find a better measure of economic well-being than GDP.

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Happy New Year from Blue Cross Blue Shield

A cardiologist friend just got a New Year’s greeting from Blue Cross Blue Shield of DC/Maryland/Virginia. She’s a healthy woman in her 40s. They are raising her personal health insurance rates by 30 percent. Can she recover this from the reimbursements that they will pay her for the work that she does on patients’ hearts? Maybe not; they are simultaneously cutting payments to cardiologists by 35 percent. Her explanation: “insurance companies are crooks and the healthcare reform/debacle will only make it worse”.

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Heated Furniture to Save Energy?

A lot of cars have heated seats. When the seat heater is on, most drivers will set the interior temperature 3-7 degrees lower than with the seat heater off. Why not apply the same technology to houses?

Imagine being at home in a 65-degree house. Even in a T-shirt and jeans, it would probably be comfortable to walk around, stir a pot on the stove, carry laundry, scrub and clean, walk on a treadmill while typing on a computer (as I’m doing now!). However, if one were to sit down and read a book, it would begin to seem cold. Why not install heat in all of the seats and beds of the house? And sensors to turn the heat on and off automatically? In a lot of ways, this would be more comfortable than a current house because the air temperature would be set for actively moving around while the seat temperature would be set for sedentary activities.

The cost? Let’s say $50 per seat or single bed. Assume that a typical house has 6 rooms, each of which has an average of 6 seats or beds. Round up to 40 and multiple by $50 and we’ve added $2000 to the capital cost of the house. If an average house costs $2000 per year to heat and lowering the thermostat by 5 degrees cuts the cost by 15 percent, it will take roughly 7 years to pay back our investment (assuming nominal cost of electricity). Maybe not the most dramatic way to cut down on our burning of fossil fuels, but it is one that would increase our comfort level rather than reducing it.

What am I missing?

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Reverse job fair for computer programmers

When I started programming, in 1976, all that an individual programmer needed to demonstrate her or her work was a room-sized mainframe computer, a card reader, and a line printer. So it made sense to have job fairs where employers sat at desks with posters and candidates walked around. Today most software can be demonstrated from a laptop or a smartphone, so why not have the programmers sit at desks and let the employers walk around and browse among the achievements?

That’s exactly what is happening in Mountain View this weekend at The Hacker Fair. Does anyone else know of similar events past or future?

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TSA Workers Hospitalized…

… after sniffing honey. They also spent most of the day hassling “gardener Francisco Ramirez”:

The TSA shut down Meadows Field airport (BFL) in Bakersfield, CA, on Wednesday after several bottles of honey set off explosive detection monitors. Two TSA agents were also taken to the hospital after smelling the then-unknown substance and feeling nauseated.

Hard to know whether to file this under excessive government spending, loss of civil liberties (nearly full day detention due to carrying honey), or runaway health care costs (I’m still sad that nobody likes my health care reform plan).

More: aero-news.net.

Related: older posting on how we’re spending $6 billion per year on airport security.

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Visit to Berkeley, California

Here’s a trip report on four days spent in the East Bay (Berkeley, Oakland, Piedmont), primarily with people who work or study at the University of California, Berkeley and people who have high-tech jobs.

Bitterness against Republicans in general and King Bush II in particular is commonly expressed. We tried to go over to the Berkeley Art Museum to see paintings recently given to the museum by Fernando Botero: The Abu Ghraib series. Unfortunately the museum was closed along with every other University of California building, due to lack of funds. Whose fault is that? According to all of the East Bayers with whom I spoke, the Republican-sponsored Proposition 13 is to blame. Ever since this initiative passed in 1978, the state has been starved for funds. I pointed out that California collects a larger percentage of its citizens’ income than all but five other states (10.5 percent; source). Shouldn’t it be possible to run the state on 10.5 percent of income?

Despite the fact that all of my interlocutors had university educations, sometimes including PhDs, all were so deeply invested in the idea that their insolvent state government is starved for revenue that they were unable to parse the information. They all replied that of course California needed more money than the average state because it had a larger population, thinking that I had said California collected more total dollars than all but five other states. None could accept the idea that their state had a spending problem rather than a revenue problem and everyone thought that more money should be collected “from rich people” (these folks, if only by virtue of owning houses in Berkeley, were rich by American standards, but they defined “rich” as “more than $50 million in assets”; nobody considered the idea that wealthy people could easily pick up and move to states with lower taxes). None would accept the idea that their state and local government were no longer there to serve current citizens, that they existed primarily to pay pension obligations incurred decades earlier (more).

For roughly 60 years, Berkeley has offered more services to its residents than virtually any other city in the U.S. The schools are expensively funded. Welfare programs have been lavish. People can borrow a full set of tools from the public library. There is a non-profit organization on every block. Yet Berkeley has a poverty rate of 21 percent, higher than the state average of 12 percent (source). The school system tracks student performance by race and ethnicity so that they can reveal to local employers that “white students are doing far better than the state average while black and Latino students are doing worse” (source). Anywhere else in the country one would be considered a vicious racist for claiming that black and Latino high school students are intellectually inferior to white and Asian students, but in Berkeley broadcasting this information marks one as a concerned humanitarian. Sixty years of failure had not daunted any of the East Bayers with whom I spoke; all were in favor of even bigger and more expensive government.

Given the cheerleading for government expansion, I would have thought that the latest $1 trillion health care spending initiative in Congress would have delighted Berkeleyites. “The Republicans gutted the bill,” one woman said, “by removing the public option. So it isn’t a fair test of what government could do.” How about the ascendancy of Barack Obama, which should give the U.S. eight years of the kind of political philosophy that Berkeley folks have espoused for decades. “He’s a moderate, not a liberal,” was the response. Thus if the extra trillions of dollars in borrowing and spending and eight years of Barack Obama does not usher in prosperity, the fault is that Obama and Congress did not grow the government’s share of GDP sufficiently.

Big government is working reasonably well for a U.C. Berkeley scientist who received $250,000 in stimulus money for scientific research. He explained “I’m going to spend all of it in Europe and Japan; I’m stimulating the global economy.”

When not pointing out the evilness of Republicans and the idiocy of Americans who vote for them, my Berkeley friends turned their attention to denouncing the second largest force for evil in the world: Israel. Due to the state-wide out-of-money shutdown, there was no chance of a West Bank checkpoint on the U.C. campus (http://calsjp.org/ has the schedule for these), but the rest of the anti-Israel industry was up and running. I asked folks whether they couldn’t at least admire the Israeli health care system, which provides universal coverage (not leaving millions of people out, like our new one) and superb results, all at a cost close to what a Golden Retriever owner would pay here for high quality vet care. The response was that apparent Israeli achievements are not due to hard work by Israelis, but are a result of rich Jews in the U.S. sending so much money to Israel (this study reveals that the total amounts to roughly 0.4 percent of Israel’s GDP; if withdrawn, each employed Israeli would have to work one additional day per year). I wondered aloud whether Americans didn’t have it even easier, with our near-infinite supply of natural resources. We’ve had free land, free water, oil, minerals, etc., all from the big plot of land that we stole from the Indians. Aren’t we Americans the ones who have been enjoying a 400-year tailwind? (A tailwind that is a lot less powerful now that we’ve expanded the population to 300 million and sucked many of the resources dry.) Nope. It was the Jews who got the unfairly good deal.

Berkeley students and faculty have recently been protesting tuition and fee hikes, but there haven’t been any protests about government borrowing and spending. Depending on your assumptions about how long pensioned government employees will live, wages in the U.S., and investment returns, it is quite possible that a Berkeley graduate who stays in California will find that local, state, and federal governments have already spent 80 percent of his lifetime earnings. Students aren’t protesting increased government spending or advocating any cuts, however, but only demanding more spending on their parochial concerns. Neither are East Bay parents complaining about government spending; they are dealing with the risk of a future U.S. economic collapse by getting foreign passports for their children. [Parenting in Berkeley can be a little more creative than in the rest of the U.S. One family invited me to share a meal with their “dinner co-op” partners, another family with a kid about the same age. They trade off cooking dinner every Monday evening. “By the way,” my friend noted, “there are two mommies in this other family.”]

I had breakfast with two white males. One founded a mobile phone tech company and mentioned that they are soon to go public. He is already pretty rich but stands to make tens of millions of dollars in the IPO. Our entrepreneur grew up in the U.S., attended the best private schools, and then went on to the most elite universities. His family happens to come from Argentina. I asked the other white male at the table, a wage slave for a big company, how he would feel if his own daughter were rejected from college in favor of the rich entrepreneur’s kid, due to that child’s Hispanic status. This turned out not to be a tough question. Of course he wanted his daughter to go to the most prestigious school, but Affirmative Action was important and his own daughter would surely get into at least some college somewhere. So on balance he thought it would be fair for his daughter to be rejected.

I met a friend picking up his laptop from an independent Macintosh repair store, with lower prices than the official sleek Apple stores. A minor whack had caused the power connector to fail internally. His love for the Mac was not diminished when I pointed out that the repair bill was about the same as what Dell charged for a brand new computer. The other Macintosh experience that I had was trying to use a Flip video camera with an iMac (vastly inferior user experience) and listening to the owner talk about how much easier to use and more reliable the Macintosh was than Windows. The only problem that he’d had with his machine recently was the loss of three months of data: all writing, photos, and video.

After the Macintosh repair shop, we stopped into the Brower Center, which calls itself “Berkeley’s greenest building” and is packed with non-profit organizations that are determined to stop stupid people in the rest of the U.S. from trashing the planet. The building is named for David Brower, famous for being pushed out of the Sierra Club when he pointed out that immigration was going to ruin the environment of the U.S. (more). In 2000, Brower thought that the U.S. would be a pleasant place to live with 150 million people (what we had around 1950) and an unpleasant place with the 600 million that we were forecast to have by 2100. As of 2008, the experts were forecasting a 2100 population closer to 1 billion (source). Brower’s legacy is a building featuring a cavernous two-story atrium and high ceilings everywhere. On a day with temperatures of about 55 degrees outside, the environmentalists’ building was heated to more than 80 degrees. We stripped off all of the clothes that we could.

At a CVS in Oakland, we bought sundries from a 70-year-old working as a cashier. I asked my local companion if he thought it was moral for the government to tax this poor old working person and hand the money over to a comfortable 50-year-old retired former public employee, which is essentially how California is now set up. He had not thought about the question.

A white man told me how proud he was of his year-long dialog with an angry young black student back when he was an undergraduate at an Ivy League university. “When we first met,” he said, “I said that he should admit that we were mostly alike, despite our difference in skin color. He replied that there was no way that I could understand the rage of a black man. We spent a whole year working this out and I came to understand his point of view.” My response was that perhaps his first idea was correct. Could it be that black and white Americans are mostly alike? We spend our time talking about skin tone while the Chinese grow their economy at 9 percent per year.

One nice thing about living in Berkeley is that you can be sure that God agrees with whatever you’re thinking. If God didn’t agree with and love you, why would would He pour down good weather and sunshine on Berkeley almost every day?

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