It is no wonder those Yahoo guys aren’t doing well

I’m finally getting around to cleaning up some old personal photo essays and so forth, moving them from photo.net to philip.greenspun.com. An example is my personal guide to New York City. Almost every page in this little museum piece of how the Web worked back in 1995 and 1996 contained a link to the Yahoo directory, e.g., http://dir.yahoo.com/Arts/design_arts/fashion/. Despite having thousands of employees, Yahoo was apparently unable to maintain a set of redirects and all of these links are now dead. That’s a great way to lose readers and lose Google Rank.

It is tough to understand why Microsoft would pay billions of dollars for a company that can’t manage this fundamental part of Web publishing. I admit to being rather lame and sloppy, but links that I published back in the early 1990s are still functioning, albeit sometimes through one or two redirects (transparent to the user).

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Bailout will turn America into England

We apparently have an extra $700 billion of taxpayer money to spend in an effort to improve our economy. How are we planning to spend it? We are going to give it to investment banks and other financial services firms. What could we expect the result to be? America’s investment banks and financial services firms will be in great shape; the rest of the U.S. will lag behind.

What do you call a country with a thriving financial services sector and everything else rusting and obsolete? England. The City of London has been a leading provider of financial services worldwide for the last couple of centuries. During this period the rest of the country has lost its empire, lost its military power, lost its leadership position in scientific and engineering research, lost its leadership in manufacturing, and suffered from slow economic growth compared to its European neighbors.

By some accounts, the 1.22-square-mile City of London contributes roughly 20 percent of the UK’s GDP, employing only 300,000 people. (This compares to the U.S. financial services industry, which has grown from about 6 percent of the economy in the 1970s to roughly 10 percent today.)

Seven hundred billion dollars is enough money to reshape the American landscape. New York City real estate will become even more desirable. The rest of the country will decline gradually.

Do we have to spend our money this way? Why not put the $700 billion into tax credits for businesses that make capital investments? Or reduce the corporate tax, which would increase the value of American stocks? Or give tax breaks to foreign companies that open factories or R&D facilities here in the U.S.?

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The thriving Massachusetts economy

After a helicopter flight this afternoon, I ran into a friend in the hangar. He works for the biggest air taxi (airplane charter) company in Massachusetts. “We just laid off two thirds of our staff,” he noted. “We’ve returned most of the airplanes to the lessors.” Driving home, I passed by Mattress Discounters. They had a “going out of business” sign out front. I stopped in to ask why. “They’re closing all of our New England stores,” said the manager.

We have cold weather, per-capita tax expense roughly double New Hampshire’s (compared to other states), and extremely high housing costs. Young people keep leaving to build careers in the more rapidly growing regions of the U.S. Still, I would have thought enough of us oldsters were still here to need a comfortable mattress…

[I did my share for the Massachusetts GDP this week. A crack appeared in my car’s windshield and the whole windshield needed to be replaced. This expanded GDP by at least $500. Maybe if we all smash each others’ windshields we can make the GDP numbers for Q3 look good…]

[Correction: The air taxi company has slimmed down on turboprops, from 6 to 3, partly due to the seasonality of business up here. They’re keeping their 4 Eclipse jets, but not counting on them for any revenue due to the fact that service and support for the Eclipse is almost non-existent. One serious problem with the Eclipse is that, although the plane in theory can be approved for flight into known icing conditions, in practice it is impossible to schedule an existing plane for the required retrofits. The Eclipse remains a jet that can flown only in clear and/or very warm weather.]

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HVAC contractor in Boston slowing down

The HVAC guys who have been maintaining the central air conditioning in my apartment here in Cambridge came over today. I had called them on Friday to see when they could show up. For the last ten years the answer has been “we’re flat out; maybe in three weeks.” This year it turned out to be “next business day”. Business is very slow, according to the technician. People aren’t installing new systems and are deferring maintenance. An air conditioner that broke in August, and would formerly have been fixed immediately, won’t be fixed until May.

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The middleman’s share of the U.S. economy

The Wall Street meltdown continues and people are asking themselves “How come we have to pay $700 billion to bail out firms that collectively spend more than $700 billion every year paying their employees?” In recent decades Wall Street has grown from 6 percent of the U.S. economy to something like 10 percent, while providing the same basic menu of services: taking companies public, selling bonds, managing investments. The bailout angers taxpayers because anyone who can do arithmetic can see that more than $700 billion was taken out of Wall Street in the form of employee bonuses during the years of the real estate/mortgage bubble. The people who created the bubble, in many cases engaging in frauds of various kinds, were rewarded handsomely and are now relaxing in their Greenwich, Connecticut mansions deciding whether to take out the yacht or the private jet. Wall Street firms did not retain their exceptional profits during the years of fraud, but rather paid out almost all of it to the executives and rank-and-file employees who engineered the fraud. (Actually if they had retained some of these profits they wouldn’t be needing a bailout!)

The anger is easy to understand, but what is tough to understand is why the middleman’s share of the U.S. economy has grown so much. When houses were cheap and people lived in them for 20 years, the realtor’s 6 percent commission wasn’t a huge slice of the economy. Houses became very expensive and people flipped them quickly, which has raised realtor commissions to roughly $60 billion per year. We have a huge sector of the economy mostly doing stuff that wouldn’t need to be done if Americans would get a little more organized in their use of Google Maps and other Web sites (see this New York Times article on Madison, Wisconsin, where “for sale by owner” houses sold for about the same price as realtor-sold houses). The realtor commission was only the beginning of the feast for middlemen during the real estate bubble. Somehow Americans weren’t able to find mortgages on their own, so every town was filled with mortgage brokers making $100,000 to $150,000 per year. Local banks weren’t able to sell mortgages upstream without, apparently, giving tens of billions of dollars in fees every year to Wall Street firms.

The Internet was supposed to make markets more efficient, yet since the early 1990s, when Web access became universal, the American people have devoted an ever-larger share of their paychecks to middlemen.

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Our tax dollars at work on the golf course

Today’s New York Times carries an article on federal and state tax dollars paying for pensions and disability to retired Long Island Rail Road workers. Some interesting stats from the article: 97 percent of retired LIRR workers in a recent year applied for and received disability payments; one married coupled is sucking down $280,000 per year in taxpayer funds; workers who start relatively young with the railroad can retire at age 50.

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Dear Messrs. Paulson and Bernanke

Dear Messrs. Paulson and Bernanke:

This is to request Federal assistance for East Coast Aero Club. We operate a flight school at Hanscom Field in the Boston suburbs. We are concerned that most of our customers have had a significant portion of their savings and retirement funds wiped out by Wall Street. These folks may not be able to afford flying lessons and aircraft rental anymore. Certainly the financial crisis has resulted in a drop in executive compensation. We are not able to pay our CEO the $50 million per year that he deserves, having kept the school in operation for more than 20 years.

Given that we have 27 airplanes and helicopters and a staff of five full-time mechanics, I think it is safe to say that we are regarded as “too big to fail”, at least by pilots at Hanscom (KBED). We believe an $85 billion loan would enable us to continue to operate, compensate executives appropriately, and give customers faith in our stability.

In exchange for $85 billion, we would be happy to give the Federal government warrants to purchase 80 percent of the stock in our company. We would promise to purchase our insurance only from the Federally-backed AIG and our ground vehicles only from the soon-to-be-Federally-bailed-out GM and Ford. We will rework our payscale to be consistent with Fortune 500 norms. Our flight instructors will therefore earn 1/430th of the CEO’s salary (source). As our CEO will be earning $50 million per year, this will give our CFIs enough income to take out a mortgage from the once-again-Federally-owned Fannie Mae.

Thank you for considering our request.

Philip Greenspun, Helicopter Instructor

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Stocks for the Long Run

It is tough to keep the buy-and-hold faith these days. This chart of the S&P 500 over the last 10 years shows that had you bought U.S. stocks at any time during 1999 and 2000 you would have less wealth right now in nominal dollars than you did then, i.e., the index is lower today than it was 8 or 9 years ago. You would have received a small dividend yield during this time, perhaps 1.7% on average (source), but that is less than you’d have gotten in a money market or CD and less than inflation, which has been at least 32 percent since 1999 (source; uses the standard CPI, which underestimates cost-of-living increases).

Corporate revenues have grown hugely during this period, if only thanks to inflation. What happened to the investor’s share?

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