New York commercial real estate news vs. the lying stock market

by philg

New York City is back, according to the media. Example… “The return-to-office trend is real — and it’s spectacular for NYC” (New York Post, August 17, 2025):

More employees now work in New York City offices than in July of 2019, according to the Placer.ai Office Index.

That’s right: The research platform, which uses cellphone data to track comings and goings at commercial buildings nationwide, found 1.3% more staffers at Manhattan desks last month than were there before the pandemic.

Similar article in the WSJ: “NYC Offices Are Back. Nothing Proves It More Than JPMorgan’s $3 Billion Tower.”

What does the lying stock market say? Here’s a 20-year chart for Vornado, a well-managed REIT whose portfolio is primarily office buildings and retail in New York City:

It’s gone from about $100 (sixty 2005 dollars adjusted for Bidenflation) to $37 today.

What about what one can see with one’s lying eyes? I visited a reader who lives near Wall Street and we surveyed some impressive towers from his 45th floor windows. We looked into the former Chase Manhattan building, fronted by an impressive Dubuffet sculpture, and found just a handful of workers at their desks at 2 pm. A nearby former Deutsche Bank tower remains vacant years after a renovation project started. In between is what used to be a name-brand hotel, now home to migrants for whom taxpayers foot the bill (their bicycles are chained up across the street):

The apparent lack of office workers means that there is more room for tourists, e.g., Fearless Tourist backs up Fearless Girl (“commissioned by State Street Global Advisors (SSGA), a large asset management company, to promote gender diversity initiatives and an index fund focused on gender-diverse companies with a relatively high percentage of women in senior leadership”):

The National Parks Service is there with 100 percent of exhibits in the “National Memorial” devoted to Americans who identify as “women”:

These exhibits that focus on a single gender ID (out of 74 recognized by Science) have apparently been up since 2021 (“Women’s Work, Never Praised, Never Done by Deb Willis, retrieving the stories of Black women in the struggle for the vote.”).

Consistent with the lack of observed office workers we found quite a few vacant storefronts, e.g.,

Maybe the retail space can be turned into mosques (masjids)? Here’s one a short walk north:

What about vacancy rates? From Moody’s, May 2025:

The current vacancy rate is a little high, but it doesn’t seem high enough to account for the observed emptiness of the Wall St. area or the terrible performance of Vornado. Covidcrats forced all Americans to learn how to work and collaborate remotely. It seems difficult to believe that a big enterprise would need to pay its support staff to work and live in Manhattan. Perhaps the Masters of the Universe still need to be in a Manhattan office building, but the trend toward moving support functions out to other boroughs, New Jersey, and other states must have been accelerated by everyone becoming proficient with videoconferencing. One would think that a typical company could get by with only half the Manhattan square footage per employee that it had in 2019 because so many people in 2025 would be either working from home or working from an office in Parsippany, NJ.

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Advice to a young unemployed computer science graduate: use freelance work to build a portfolio

by philg

I’ve recently spoken to a few young CS graduates who can’t find jobs. These are folks who got their bachelors degrees at schools one tier down from the super elite, e.g., University of Michigan rather than Stanford. I.e., a similar situation to what was recently covered in a New York Times article about a Purdue CS graduate who couldn’t find a job better than Chipotle and an Oregon State University graduate who applied to more than 5,700 positions.

Hiring a fresh CS graduate is risky for an employer because universities teach students how to work for an engineer, not how to be an engineer. Assignments in CS undergrad come in neat packages in which everything is doable within the allotted time. Engineering starts with talking to a customer to find out what is wanted/needed and then figuring out what is doable and which capabilities should be scheduled into which release of a program (the highest value and easiest-to-build capabilities go in v1.0). An employer thus has no idea whether a fresh CS graduate has or will ever develop any of the skills required to be useful. (I remember helping one very capable MIT graduate whose customer was unhappy with him. He’d spent all of his time on a paid project refactoring and reengineering code such that it was, in his view, more maintainable. He had let all of the customer’s requested features slip. The work that he’d done on the internals was invisible and undetectable to any user, admin or otherwise. He didn’t understand why he wasn’t a hero.)

What advice did I have for young people stuck in this situation? I advised against trying to cram for the puzzle tests that the most sought-after employers use as screeners. I advised signing up for freelance projects on Upwork or similar, charging nominal amounts if necessary to win clients, and then using the freelance projects to put together a portfolio. “If you were going to build a house would you hire an architect without looking at a portfolio of previous houses that the architect had designed?”

I’m not sure that I have found on the Web an example of what would be persuasive. https://benscott.dev/ is great from a visual/design point of view, but it doesn’t show the client’s perspective. I would prefer to see a portfolio that includes a photo of the client and what was the essence of the original request and then some screen shots showing that the client-requested features actually were developed. Finally, the project blurb should contain something about which tools were used, e.g., MySQL/Node.js or SQL Server/Microsoft .NET/C#.

Readers: What else would you say to a recent BSCS grad who is applying everywhere and getting interviewed almost nowhere?

Separately, if all else fails I think there are plenty of jobs selling marijuana in New York City, with at least 15 shops within 3 blocks of my Lower East Side hotel.

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The revolution in oil-powered general aviation is at least three years away

by philg

Happy National Aviation Day to those who celebrate.

One thing that you’d expect the Experimental Aircraft Association, with revenue of more than $60 million per year, to do is fund the development of new powerplants. There has never been any significant progress in aviation without first an improvement in engines. A low-power high-efficiency turbine engine, for example, would enable the creation of all kinds of dramatically superior aircraft. But none of the kit companies or even the certified four-seat aircraft companies can readily afford to invest what is required.

Enter Turbotech, a startup in the Islamic Republic of France. They say that they have a 140 hp turboprop engine that burns fuel at approximately the same rate as a 140 hp Rotax (piston) engine:

How long before this can be dropped into a certified airframe? The founders said that if everything goes perfect and nothing at all has to be changed in their current design, the engine could be EASA/FAA-certified in three years.

An analysis with some numbers (I disagree with the price discussion):

I don’t think it is Turbotech, but the Canadians claim to have a “turboshaft engine” in their Janus-I Flying Suitcase:

The ultimate license plate for light aircraft enthusiasts (a car parked at Oshkosh and, presumably, that will seen at Sun ‘n Fun in Lakeland, Florida in April:

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Wright Brothers, 2SLGBTQQIA+, and Islam in Dayton, Ohio

by philg

We visited Dayton, Ohio on the way to Oshkosh this year, primarily to see the USAF Museum (see previous posts) but also to visit some of the Wright Brothers historical sites.

The place where the Wright Brothers did some of their earliest work in aeronautical engineering is preserved to some extent by the National Park Service, their final bicycle shop building having been purchased by Henry Ford and moved to Greenfield Village in the Islamic Republic of Dearborn, Michigan (represented in Congress by Rashida Tlaib). The sidewalk celebrates the Wright Brothers as well as the equally important Phyllis G. Bolds:

The museum celebrates the two Wright Brothers on equal footing with their friend Paul Dunbar (or maybe Paul Dunbar is 2X as important as either Orville or Wilbur individually since it is the “Wright-Dunbar Center” rather than the “Wright-Dunbar-Wright Center”?).

The Feds remind us not to forget Alice Dunbar Nelson, Paul Dunbar’s widow:

Here’s the neighborhood; note the $200,000+ G-Wagon in a city not famous for economic vibrance.

You can live in a brand-new (except for the shell?) 2BR, 3Ba condo in the neighborhood for about the same cost as the G-Wagon that was driving by.

Dayton is enriched by migrants according to an official city web page:

The city notes that “Between 2014 and 2019, the total population in the City of Dayton decreased by 0.2% while the immigrant population increased by +25.9% during the same time period.” In other words, the native-born population is shrinking while the migrant population is growing and, of course, it would be inaccurate to refer to this as a “replacement”.

After spending some time in a few of these Rust Belt cities I’ve come to the conclusion that the politicians who run them are passionate about immigrants because most of the native-born Americans who habitually work and pay taxes have moved to other parts of the country. The politicians hope that immigrants won’t be quick to figure out that the U.S. is a work-optional society and that these folks will pay taxes to replace the tax base lost to North Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama. If the immigrants choose to refrain from work, on the other hand, the Rust Belt city can still thrive via the federal cash infusion of Medicaid, Section 8, and other programs (it would be inaccurate to refer to these as “welfare”, of course).

Dayton seems to have been significant enriched by Islamic migrants. We found Halal restaurants both in the city and suburbs. Google Maps shows a variety of mosques (masjids). The International Grocery Halal Market was near our hotel:

As part of Dayton’s commitment to welcoming these observant Muslim immigrants, much of the city was covered in sacred Rainbow Flags (July 13, shortly after Pride Month and Omnisexual Visibility Day and just before Non-Binary Awareness Week). Here is a sampling:

A restaurant flying the Biden-style trans-enhanced Rainbow Flag (note also the Black Lives Matter banner in front of the Black-free restaurant in a city where 38 percent of the residents told the Census Bureau that they identify as Black):

The field where the Wright Brothers did a lot of flight tests in 1904 and 1905 is preserved on the grounds on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (no need to drive through the base gates to see the sights, though). The locals funded a monument at the crediting the Wright Brothers with the invention of ailerons, which was the basis of their patent infringement lawsuits:

Here’s what our Google AI Overlord has to say on the subject:

Ailerons, used for controlling an aircraft’s roll, were first conceived by Matthew Piers Watt Boulton in 1868, who patented a system of lateral control using movable wing surfaces. While Boulton’s design laid the groundwork, the Wright brothers are credited with pioneering the use of wing warping for roll control in their 1903 flights. However, the modern aileron, as a separate, hinged control surface, is generally attributed to Robert Esnault-Pelterie, who used them successfully in 1904. Legal battles over the invention and its patent rights ensued, but ailerons eventually became standard on aircraft, particularly after their widespread adoption during World War I.

The actual field is dotted with explanatory signs:

Although the city’s leaders value migrants, the prairie is preserved as special because it is “native”:

On our way out of town we found a world-class Mooney paint scheme:

Too bad that nearly all of today’s GA pilots are too fat to fit comfortable in this speedster!

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Diversity tour of Shaker Heights near Cleveland, Ohio

by philg

Photos taken walking around a rich white neighborhood of Shaker Heights, Ohio back in July…

Joe Biden won 90 percent of the vote among the folks here (Wikipedia). Quite a few houses sported political signs, 100 percent of them advocating for progressive Democrat points of view. Example from a $1 million house (a fortune by Rust Belt standards!):

Maybe the owner doesn’t want to replace the sign with one that is better condition because that wouldn’t communicate that he/she/ze/they has had a longstanding relationship with Black Lives Matter. What would happen if a Black Life from Cleveland proper wanted to dip into the “public” Shaker Heights swimming pool? Unless accompanied by a resident, he/she/ze/they would be excluded due to non-residency:

We did find some genuine diversity in the Van Aken District. One visitor was dressed in a full burqa with eye slit. Her companion wore a modest abaya with parts of her face showing and everything else covered. They walked by this clothing store whose message wasn’t exactly Islamic:

None of the closeted conservatives of Shaker Heights had the temerity to display any political message outside of their homes. One of the better examples of independent thinking was this house with a “resist” sign, an upside-down American flag, and a Ukrainian flag:

A sampling of the signs in front of some other $1 million houses:

I wonder if these signs help maintain neighborhood political monoculture by discouraging anyone who disagrees with the posted messages from buying a house. This would result in an increase in happiness among residents, according to Harvard University research as covered by the New York Times: “The downside of diversity” (2007).

But a massive new study, based on detailed interviews of nearly 30,000 people across America, has concluded just the opposite. Harvard political scientist Robert Putnam — famous for “Bowling Alone,” his 2000 book on declining civic engagement — has found that the greater the diversity in a community, the fewer people vote and the less they volunteer, the less they give to charity and work on community projects. In the most diverse communities, neighbors trust one another about half as much as they do in the most homogenous settings. The study, the largest ever on civic engagement in America, found that virtually all measures of civic health are lower in more diverse settings.

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Measured cooling effect of clay tile roof

by philg

I have a Chinese Govee temperature sensor above the fiberglass insulation in a mostly unventilated attic here in Florida. During a reroof there were periods of time when the attic was covered with

  1. concrete barrel tiles over hot mop tar paper
  2. modern peel-and-stick underlayment only
  3. clay barrel tiles (a medium-dark red/brown) over the modern underlayment

Weather conditions were reasonably consistent during these three time periods, i.e., hot and sunny.

Temps in the lower part of attic (only about 4′ high; probe on top of some fiberglass insulation above the finished ceiling) went from roughly 100 degrees underneath the old intact roof (concrete tiles) to 120-130 degrees under the peel-and-stick underlayment only (white in color, but apparently not very reflective), and back down to around 100 degrees underneath the new clay tiles over underlayment. Here’s a chart from the Govee app:

In late July, maybe the hottest time of year, the temps went up to a max of 115 degrees.

Speaking of Chinese tech, here’s an idea for an awning that can automatically deploy over a parked car:

(I hope that it checks the wind forecast and the actual wind and folds itself up automatically when necessary!)

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EAA AirVenture (“Oshkosh”) Airshows 2025

by philg

The daily airshows (and two night shows) at EAA AirVenture this year were awesome as usual. The announcer pointed out that Philipp Steinbach was a remarkable exception to today’s division of labor. He’s the designer of the GB1 Gamebird. He’s the aerobatic demonstration pilot for the machine at airshows. He’s the founder and CEO of the company that builds the machine.

Minnesota governor and erstwhile Kamala Harris running mate Tim Walz contracted PTSD during his deployment to Italy. It’s fortunate that Mr. Walz wasn’t present during the Wisconsin National Guard’s demonstration of its F-35s, Black Hawks, and tankers all while blasting off artillery rounds (blanks, I hope!) every 15 seconds (the video below doesn’t capture the impact of the artillery sounds). If this is only one state’s Guard it would definitely be smarter for a foreign enemy to find a way to take over the U.S. other than via frontal assault (maybe have an army of soldiers walk across the southern border and claim asylum?).

It was great to have Randy Ball back with his MiG-17, whose afterburner is beautiful at dusk. Nathan Hammond in his Super Chipmunk was amazing in the night airshow with LEDs and fireworks coming off the windtips.

Australian Pitts pilot Paul Bennet was new and interesting:

Also in the Pitts and also new to AirVenture, the Northern Stars Aeroteam (strange choice of vertical video; trying to appeal to youngsters on their phones?):

Not new to AirVenture, but frightening to watch… Skip Stewart:

Rob Holland had been scheduled to perform, but instead there were various tributes to him from other performers. (Rob died in April due to a mechanical failure potentially attributable to a small modification made to his plane (FLYING).) Very sad.

The skies were so filled with warbird trainers that it was possible to get a decent photo even with an iPhone:

Blimps also make a decent iPhone airshow subject:

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Washington, D.C. is safe and also people from places that are safer are entitled to asylum

by philg

The righteous recently have complained that Donald Trump is trying to reduce crime in Washington, D.C. where the murder rate is only about 27 per 100,000 in the most recent statistics, down from 40 per 100,000 in 2023. That’s almost perfect safety, we are told, and therefore Trump is plainly motivated by a combination of racism (AP, below) and a grand plan to transition to full dictatorship.

The same people who say that D.C. is perfectly safe tell us that people from Colombia, Guatemala, South Sudan, Venezuela, El Salvador, Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan are entitled to asylum in the U.S. (and four generations of welfare if they want it) because their home countries aren’t safe. What do their home countries have in common? All have murder rates lower than Washington, D.C.’s (Wikipedia).

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National Museum of the US Air Force, Hangar 4

by philg

One reaches the museum’s last hangar by walking through the “missile gallery”:

The principles of rocketry are explained and the museum notes that the New York Times ridiculed Robert Goddard in 1920 and finally apologized in 1969.

Here’s part of the Newspaper of Science’s editorial:

There’s a plaque honoring the founder of Boeing, but no mention of the fact that FDR’s federal government forced its breakup in 1934 due to its alleged monopoly power. Nor is Boeing’s subsequent career as a real estate developer mentioned in which he restricted ownership in his new neighborhoods to whites (he anticipated the Harvard University research described in 2007 by the New York Times in “The downside of diversity”: “the greater the diversity in a community, the fewer people vote and the less they volunteer, the less they give to charity and work on community projects. In the most diverse communities, neighbors trust one another about half as much as they do in the most homogenous settings. The study, the largest ever on civic engagement in America, found that virtually all measures of civic health are lower in more diverse settings.”).

The fourth building of the museum contains some impressive items, including the enormous North American XB-70 Valkyrie, Mach 3 predecessor of the B-1 bomber.

My favorite, though, was Wile E. Coyote’s space sled:

The Apollo 15 command module in which Al Worden orbited solo:

Here’s a smiling but unsuccessful competitor to the F-35:

The museum holds a collection of Air Force Ones dating back to FDR, but my favorite is Eisenhower’s:

On the way out of the museum, Outstanding Airmen of the Year are recognized:

A separate area is maintained by the National Aviation Hall of Fame and I was pleased to see Frank Robinson honored (he looks quite tall standing next to the R22!):

A substantial portion of the gift shop is dedicated to Rosie the Riveter:

There are some beautiful memorials near the parking lot set up by various units and retirees of the Air Force:

Here’s one for the Kanye West fans:

Thus concludes my coverage of the 2025 trip to the USAF museum in Dayton, Ohio. Allow at least a full day for the experience.

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National Museum of the US Air Force, Hangar 3

by philg

All of the third building is devoted to the Cold War:

Highlights of this hangar include the 10-engine B-36 “Peacemaker” and more familiar but still awesome machines such as the B-1, the SR-71, and the U-2. The primary heroes of the Cold War identified as “women” (as the term was understood by the primitive people of the 1950s and 60s):

The Air Force reminds us that “women are responsible for countless discoveries and inventions” (e.g., female engineer Kelly Johnson of Lockheed who led the P-38, U-2, and SR-71 design teams). The next hangar in the tour (building 4) has many reminders of the terrible ideas perpetrated by the inferior sex. Here’s a Canadian flying saucer, for example, and the Goblin fighter that would be dropped from the B-36 Peacemaker to fight then would return to the bomber mothership.

Here’s another “parasite” idea:

Men also came up with some terrible tilt-rotor ideas:

The Cold War hangar also showcases the contributions of mighty piston-powered aircraft. Who knew that the USAF operated the Grumman Albatross?

Imagine bragging about being an Air Force pilot and then being exposed as trundling along at 100 knots in a Cessna 195 on floats!

Speaking of feeble piston-powered machines, what about the Cessna 172? The museum describes the plane’s heroic role on September 12, 2001, shortly after the successful jihad against the World Trade Center:

The uniform and “Nikon” of a C172-flying hero:

The museum highlights the heroism of other Civil Air Patrol officers:

For folks who love engineering, a cutaway F-86 (more relevant to the Korean War, but in the Cold War hangar):

Also in the Cold War hangar, though describing a 2019 event, the Air Force highlights its refusal to follow Sharia and its prohibition on females leading worship of Allah for mixed-gender groups:

There are some outdoor exhibits as well, including this “simulator” that simulates flying by… flying.

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