How is Zoom stock worth less today than before coronapanic?

by philg

Some folks are using Zoom stock as an example of the pain that some Americans would suffer if the Democrats’ plan to tax unrealized capital gains were implemented. They posit a prescient investor who paid $100 for the stock just as coronapanic was unfolding, then got taxed based on the $337/share price at the end of 2020, and just held onto the stock for the ride back down below $100 (remember that the loss in real dollars is even more severe; adjusted for purchasing power, the $100 paid in 2020 had a purchasing power of closer to $200 today, e.g., for a house):

Today’s topic is not the wisdom of forcing successful Americans to pay their fair share, but on how the Zoom price today can be lower than the Zoom price before coronapanic. Zoom was worth $92 per share in August 2019, for example, before SARS-CoV-2 had infected even a single human, with or without a cloth mask to protect him/her/zir/theirself.

Given that Zoom was a curiosity in 2019 and is something that hundreds of millions of people today still use regularly, how can the company be worth less?

Let’s also consider the purportedly efficient market and the purported wisdom of crowds of investors. Zoom had potential, so it was worth a lot in 2019. What would have been an impossible dream for Zoom investors? How about governors all around the U.S. making it illegal for people to meet in person (except at liquor and marijuana stores in California, Massachusetts, etc.)? U.S. state and local governments did more for Zoom than investors could ever have hoped for and yet the company still hasn’t lived up to the expectations of 2019.

How did the investors of 2019 get it so wrong?

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Follow-up to American Factory, Taiwan edition

by philg

Happy Labor Day to those who celebrate by working!

Back in 2020, I covered Netflix: American Factory, a documentary of what happens when Chinese glass-making experts try to train Americans to be useful and also what happens to foreign investors when Democrat politicians circle the investment. In case you missed it, the New York Times ran an interesting follow-up to this movie: “What Works in Taiwan Doesn’t Always in Arizona, a Chipmaking Giant Learns” (August 8, 2024).

TSMC modeled its facility in Phoenix on one at home. But bringing the company’s complex manufacturing process to America has been a bigger challenge than it expected.

“We keep reminding ourselves that just because we are doing quite well in Taiwan doesn’t mean that we can actually bring the Taiwan practice here,” said Richard Liu, the director of employee communications and relations at the site.

In recent interviews, 12 TSMC employees, including executives, said culture clashes between Taiwanese managers and American workers had led to frustration on both sides. TSMC is known for its rigorous working conditions. It’s not uncommon for people to be called into work for emergencies in the middle of the night. In Phoenix, some American employees quit after disagreements over expectations boiled over, according to the employees, some of whom asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

While it was under construction, the company sent American engineers to Tainan for training and to shadow their Taiwanese counterparts, observing TSMC’s all-hands-on-deck way of working up close.

Jefferson Patz, an engineer fresh off a master’s degree from the University of California, San Diego, went to Tainan in 2021 for 18 months of training shortly after he joined the company.

“Oh, my gosh, people work hard,” Mr. Patz said. He recalled that this initial impression had given him a strong sense of what it took to succeed in the industry.

After returning to Arizona, Mr. Patz said, employees were expected to pitch in with work outside their job descriptions because construction of the facility was behind schedule.

This approach did not sit well with everyone. Workers were required to do whatever was needed to finish the most pressing job, he said. Some of the American workers also found it difficult to spend a long stretch of time in Taiwan.

TSMC should be able to make this work simply by paying $2 million/year to each worker in order to get smart conscientious people from among the U.S. population of 335 million (or maybe 350 million if we count the undocumented more accurately), but that could be a painful hit to profits! Let’s check out the labor pool in Taiwan vs. Arizona. World Population Review:

The same source gives an average IQ for Arizona of 98, substantially lower than Taiwan’s average of 106 (I question the use of 5 digits of precision, but maybe someone with a higher IQ than mine prepared the above table). American average IQ is falling, so the spread between AZ and Taiwan will only get worse.

How about conscientiousness, the willingness to show up to work every day and try to do every step of a procedure correctly? That’s heritable and the Americans with the highest fertility are those who barely work (source; the high fertility of those earning $300,000+/year can be ignored on a population-wide basis because there aren’t a lot of those parents).

Maybe it won’t matter for profits how ill-suited the average American worker is to working in a state-of-the-art fab because TSMC will be so stuffed with U.S. tax dollars that they can pay to get the workers they need.

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Bad Pharma, 2024 edition

by philg

Ten years ago… Book review: Bad Pharma:

Drugs are tested by the people who manufacture them, in poorly designed trials, on hopelessly small numbers of weird, unrepresentative patients, and analysed using techniques which are flawed by design, in such a way that they exaggerate the benefits of treatments. Unsurprisingly, these trials tend to produce results that favour the manufacturer. When trials throw up results that companies don’t like, they are perfectly entitled to hide them from doctors and patients, so we only ever see a distorted picture of any drug’s true effects. Regulators see most of the trial data, but only from early on in a drug’s life, and even then they don’t give this data to doctors or patients, or even to other parts of government. This distorted evidence is then communicated and applied in a distorted fashion. In their forty years of practice after leaving medical school, doctors hear about what works through ad hoc oral traditions, from sales reps, colleagues or journals. But those colleagues can be in the pay of drug companies – often undisclosed – and the journals are too. And so are the patient groups. And finally, academic papers, which everyone thinks of as objective, are often covertly planned and written by people who work directly for the companies, without disclosure. Sometimes whole academic journals are even owned outright by one drug company. Aside from all this, for several of the most important and enduring problems in medicine, we have no idea what the best treatment is, because it’s not in anyone’s financial interest to conduct any trials at all.

The book notes that the British government refuses to pay more for a new drug than the value added by that drug in terms of quality adjusted life years compared to cheap generics or other existing treatments. In the U.S., by contrast, the government and private insurers pay whatever the pharma company asks or, perhaps, a discount off whatever the pharma company asks.

Our ruling elites (I hesitate to say “the Biden administration” because it is unclear what role Joe Biden has been playing) have been touting a recent scheme to pay a little less for some drugs. This scheme is analyzed by Professor Vinay Prasad in “Price negotiation does not save money when keep you paying for drugs that don’t work”:

The Biden Administration saves 6 billion and then loses tens of billions with bad drug policy

They lowered the price of a drug that has no good evidence it is better than older drugs. Consider Entresto (above). Entresto— sacubitril valsartan 160mg BID— beat enalapril 10 mg BID in PARADIGM. Since then it failed in post MI and in HFpEF. It’s one the few drugs that ‘works’ in HFrEF but not post-MI. The dose tested in Paradigm was the MAXIMAL Entresto dose with a dizzying dose of ARB. But few people get this dose in real life. There is NO EVIDENCE that the prescribed doses in the US in 2024 (lower than maximal dose) are better than ace-s, which are dirt cheap.

You can lower the price of drugs, but you lose when you spend billions on covid drugs that have no evidence of efficacy. In recent years the Biden administration approved COVID boosters for toddlers, and spent 10 billion on Paxlovid. There is no evidence either of these interventions work in the current climate. So congrats on your 6 billion in savings, too bad we blew 10 billion on unproven products. (Net impact -4 billion dollars)

For every drug you negotiate prices on, the FDA is approving at least 5x as many new drugs based on poor evidence.

Summary: some things never change!

(The relative cost efficiency of the British health care system combined with the descent into Third World status for Britain is kind of confusing. The U.S. plainly wastes at least 10 percent of GDP via health care (closer to 15 percent if we compare to Singapore). How is it that we’re still so much more prosperous than the UK and most European nations?)

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What did you do to celebrate Black Business Month?

by philg

A display on August 9, 2024 at our local Bank of America in Jupiter, Florida:

Note that no other ethnic, racial, gender ID, or sexual preference group was explicitly featured by Bank of America in a rotating display. Their only focus for August, apparently, is Black Business Month.

Readers: Now that the month is nearly over, what did you do to celebrate?

American Airlines was running a “Black Film Festival” (no other ethnic or racial group was featured) on August 17, 2024, at least:

(The screen shot shows me trying to catch up on Florida literature with an audiobook of Miami Blues, also made into a movie with Alec Baldwin (holding a gun).)

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Cueflation of 40 percent compared to 2021

by philg

Back in 2021, I ordered a 42-inch pool cue so that the youngsters could enjoy the landlord’s pool table:

They’re getting taller and we’ve moved to an 8′ table (see Buying a pool table) so they’re overdue for a longer cue. Out of curiosity, I went back to the retailer’s site and found the same American-made McDermott K97B cue. The price has gone up 40 percent to $105:

(Actually, the market-clearing price is presumably higher than $105 because the cue is out of stock whereas it was in stock for immediate shipment when I ordered back in 2021. For a proper understanding of inflation we also need to adjust for availability because an item that one must order weeks or months in advance isn’t as valuable as an item that will be delivered as soon as needed. See Is inflation already at 15-30 percent if we hold delivery time constant? (2021).)

What does the official government CPI calculator say about inflation since August 2021? The $75 item should cost $86 if the government numbers are accurate.

(The Chinese-made Vector cue that I got for myself has gone up to $126, representing inflation of roughly 17 percent. That’s reasonably consistent with China’s low inflation rate over the past three years combined with high American inflation for the retailer’s services, domestic shipping, etc.)

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Could robots weave better tapestries than humans ever have?

by philg

One of America’s greatest art museums, the Kimbell in Fort Worth, is showing seven enormous tapestries right now. These depict the Battle of Pavia (1525) and were made roughly 500 years ago from wool, silk, gold, and silver thread. Each one is about 30′ wide and 14′ high, perfect for the Palm Beach County starter home. The curators praise the human artists behind these works, but I’m wondering whether robots couldn’t do a better job in many ways and thus revive this form of art.

(If you miss them in Fort Worth, you can see them while stocking up on fentanyl in San Francisco beginning in October and eventually back at their home in Naples, Italy (leave everything that you value in the hotel safe!)). Here are a few photos to give you a sense of the scale and detail:

Wouldn’t we rather all have walls like these rather than imaginative answers to simple household questions?

To revive the art form, a computer program would need to be able to take in multiple photographs (the typical tapestry shows multiple scenes), come up with a cartoon, and then pick fabric to match the colors in the underlying photographs. How could robots do a better job than humans? Robots have more patience than humans and could perhaps work at a higher resolution. We have a broader range of colors available with dyes and could also add plastic thread to the palette.

There are some companies that purport to make tapestry-like art from photographs, but they do it by printing rather than weaving.

What else did I see at the Kimbell? Readers would be disappointed if I didn’t provide a gift shop tour…

The building itself is a Louis Kahn-designed landmark:

The lighting was a bit dim, but I managed to capture a Follower of Science (concerned enough about SARS-CoV-2 to wear a mask, but not concerned enough about SARS-CoV-2 to shave his/her/zir/their beard):

The modern art museum across the street is also worthwhile and provides clear instructions for making your own $1 million artwork at home:

The Amon Carter Museum, famous for its collection of Remington and Russell, is a 5-minute walk away (might feel longer in the 100+ degree heat).

Texas is not as rich a location for the masketologist as California, New York, or Massachusetts, but I still managed to find people who have elected to do jobs that inevitably expose them to thousands of potentially infected humans per day and who attempt to avoid contracting a respiratory virus by wearing simple masks:

A sticker for sale at DFW:

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How would eliminating taxes on tips work in practice?

by philg

Kamala Harris recently floated the entirely original idea of eliminating taxes on tip income. How would this work in practice?

Consider the hypothetical case of Abu Mohammed Alsomiri, a personal trainer in Dearborn, Michigan. Clients currently see Abu twice per week and pay $80 per session via Venmo or Zelle. After Kamala’s no-taxes-on-tips program is implemented, Abu says that he provides training at no cost because he is so passionate about fitness, but tips are gladly accepted and that anyone who doesn’t tip at least $80 per session may need to be dropped from his schedule because he tends to be busy.

Or how about Catherine Débrosse, a Haitian migrant with Temporary Protected Status (extended most recently in July 2024) who attended law school in Maskachusetts and became a divorce litigator in Boston. She was previously charging $1000 per hour and paying taxes on her $1.5 million/year income (not every hour is billable). She tells clients that they have to pay her $300/hr and then she expects a $700/hr tip, which is never expected, but always appreciated. At the same time, she notes, due to her great track record at winning custody, child support, alimony, and property division, she’s too busy to work for clients who don’t tip so the clients who don’t tip can expect to have her withdraw from their case. Now Ms. Débrosse pays taxes on only 30% of her income?

What stops corporations from tipping? John Q. Nerdly volunteers to work at Nvidia as a software engineer keeping the CUDA flame alive. If the company appreciates what Mx. Nerdly does, Nvidia can give him/her/zir/them a $20,000 weekly tip (purely voluntary). Now Mx. Nerdly doesn’t have any taxable income. If the tips arrive weekly, Mx. Nerdly never risks working for more than a week without some financial compensation. In fact, Nvidia could eliminate that risk by providing a “first week tip” that is comparable to a month of regular expected tips.

In Kid perspectives on contracts I chronicled a situation where I paid a contractor more than he said (and the paperwork said) I was required to. He wouldn’t have to pay taxes on the amount that I added voluntarily because that was a tip?

Chevrolet dealers will soon be selling the ZR1 version of the C8 Corvette at a $50,000 markup. What if they say that their supply of these 1,064 horsepower cars is limited and they will be happy to sell them at MSRP, but unfortunately must limit sales to those who are decent tippers (where “decent” is defined as a $50,000 tip)? (This would be a great car for going to Publix except that Chevy eliminated the front trunk to make 1,000+ hp happen. The rear trunk isn’t huge and it gets quite hot due to being next to the engine.)

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How are Islamic groups able to hold Islamic hostages?

by philg

Gaza is run by three groups:

  • the Islamic Resistance Movement (“Hamas”)
  • UNRWA (an all-Islamic staff except for a handful of white savior European atheists, such as Philippe Lazzarini (there weren’t any qualified Arabs to lead this funnel for US/EU tax dollars headed for Hamas?))
  • Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Today we learned about a man (“Farhan al-Qadi” might be the best transliteration of his name) liberated from Gazan captivity and returned to his family in Israel (military.com):

The military said Qaid Farhan Alkadi was rescued from a tunnel “in a complex operation in the southern Gaza Strip,” without providing further details. It was not immediately known if the rescue was made under fire or if anyone was killed or wounded during the operation. The 52-year-old was one of eight members of Israel’s Arab Bedouin minority who were abducted on Oct. 7. He was working as a guard at a packing factory in Kibbutz Magen, one of several farming communities that came under attack. He has two wives and is the father of 11 children.

Wikipedia says that all Negev Bedouins are Muslim.

So… we have Muslim Gazans who explicitly call themselves “Islamic” holding a hostage who is himself Muslim/Islamic. Where in the Koran or the Hadiths does it say that this is allowed?

Separately, how does the father of 11 children look this good (the photo below was before he was taken hostage by his Arab-Muslim brothers, sisters, and binary-resisters in Gaza)? An American man will often be reduced to overweight wreckage by just one wife and one or two kids, even in those cases where the wife doesn’t turn plaintiff.

Also, let’s see how western media covers this guy’s traditional Islamic lifestyle, i.e., the two wives. Our journalists say that they’re on a mission to combat Islamophobia. If so, it would make sense to suppress the information about this freed hostage having two wives in order to make Islam seem less alien to a Western audience. For example, the New York Times article “Who Is Farhan al-Qadi, the Rescued Hostage?” doesn’t mention his marital status, only a “family”. NBC says he’s “a father of 11”, but there is no mention of any females having participated in the 11 births (as with Pete Buttigieg in the hospital bed with his husband Chasten). (See below for how the same media outlets find polygamy very interesting indeed if it can be tied to the Mormons.) “‘Brought back to life’: Family hails rescue of Israeli hostage from Hamas tunnel in Gaza” (CNN): “On Tuesday evening, his brothers and 11 children, along with their cousins and neighbors, were busy putting up tents, chairs and lights ahead of his return to the village.” (a Buttigieg-style “family” for the “father of 11” according to CNN, with children but no mothers) Wall Street Journal: “Al-Qadi, an Israeli Muslim from an Arab community known as Bedouins, is the father of 11 children and a brother to 10 siblings. He lives in a small village in Israel’s Negev Desert.” (the size of the village where he lives will be more interesting to readers than that he has two wives; no reason to rephrase as “He lives with two wives in Israel’s Negev Desert”)

Finally, what if al-Qadi comes to the U.S. with his wives and 11 children? He claims asylum on the grounds that the Gazans have said that they want to eliminate Israel and Israelis and that he has a reasonable fear of being attacked again because the Biden-Harris administration is continuing to fund Hamas, UNRWA, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. He settles in Rashida Tlaib’s district in Michigan. Wife #1 decides that she’d rather spend time with a neighbor and sues al-Qadi for divorce in the local family court. If Wife #2 also wants her freedom does she have to sue for divorce as well? Or does the first divorce render al-Qadi no longer married to anyone in the eyes of the Michigan family court? In theory, polygamists cannot become U.S. citizens (Nolo), but that shouldn’t affect their right to claim asylum and de facto permanent residence. Non-citizen residents of the U.S. have the same rights to file divorce lawsuits as citizens.

More from Nolo:

a refugee who was practicing polygamy before he immigrated will be required by U.S. immigration law to designate one wife as his legal wife to accompany him to the United States. Years later, after becoming a U.S. citizen, he might divorce that wife, and marry the woman who was formerly his second wife, in order to petition for her (on Form I-130) to immigrate to the United States.

Related:

  • in 2023, the New York Times devotes 20 pages to a tiny polygamist community that spun off from the Mormon Church in 1890
  • “The Persistence of Polygamy” (NYT, 1999) about “Mormon fundamentalists”
  • “Mormons seek distance from polygamist sects” (NBC, 2008)
  • Wikipedia: “The trans-Saharan slave trade, part of the Arab slave trade … In Al-Andalus, the area of medieval Iberia under Islamic control, black Muslims could be legally held as slaves … This all occurred despite the orthodox Muslim jurist position that no Muslim, regardless of race, could be enslaved … Even as late as the 19th century, many of the common people in Islamic society still believed that enslavement based on skin color, rather than based on religion, was approved by the religious laws of Islam” (but Farhan al-Qadi doesn’t have especially dark skin)
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More Newport Beach coast helicopter flight photos (and some masketology)

by philg

A few more photos of how the folks who say that they want to end economic inequality are living, from a Robinson R44 flight out of KSNA (Orange County Airport) up to Long Beach and then back down the coast to Dana Point before returning to refuel and then land (with a certain amount of fear and terror) on a rooftop adjacent to the airport.

I’d love to know what drugs the architect of the roof in the last photo was on!

If we ignore the water shortages, California does seem like a great place for golf. It doesn’t matter how cold the water is if the plan is to use the water only for decoration while trying to hit some balls:

Here are some folks who’ve probably figured out a way to avoid whatever new taxes Gavin Newsom might cook up (183 days/year in the Jackson, Wyoming house, for example?):

Unfortunate (termite treatment tent) and fortunate (personal oceanfront golf course?):

A lawn bowling court for communities of color?

Some hotels that could be turned into migrant shelters if Californians were willing to deliver on what they say are human rights:

Housing is a human right, but it’s also a human right to have a beach house and a yacht, which is why tax rates on California’s wealthy elites can’t be raised to pay for the housing that is supposedly a human right:

As in the previous post, the equipment used for the above photos is simple: Robinson R44, left front door removed, iPhone 14 Pro Max.

Let’s also have a look at some other photos from the trip. I saw three CyberTrucks in various parking lots in a 12-hour period:

For Californians to save the planet with these enormous vehicles will require the output of three continuously running steel mills.

The most expensive space in the mostly-empty office building where I was working is rented by a divorce litigator:

CVS in Irvine has to keep the deodorant locked up:

At SNA on the way back to Florida, I found a Follower of Science wearing an N95 mask over a full beard, an always-delightful scene, albeit contrary to the 3M instructions:

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Bring back betting on dog racing with stipulation that they have to be family dogs?

by philg

Happy International Dog Day.

Florida outlawed wagering on dog racing at the end of 2020, which effectively closed all of the dog tracks. The rationale for the ban was that the greyhounds who race professionally are treated cruelly, e.g., living in cages. Dogs love to run, though. I wonder if it would make more sense to allow gambling on dog racing, with classes organized by breed, so long as each dog lives in a standard family pet environment (no more than one dog per human household member, for example). Mindy the Crippler could compete in the Vicious Retriever 9-12 years category, for example, and would be thrilled to chase a rabbit. I would bet on her!

This might fall into the same category as my desire to see a Honda Odyssey minivan as an Indy 500 or Formula 1 pace car.

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