The smartest person in the world says that AI will end civilization within 20 years

by philg

I hope that we can all agree that whoever wins the Nobel Prize in physics is either the smartest person in the world or very close to having that distinction. This year’s smartest person is Geoffrey Hinton (WSJ):

A 2023 interview (Guardian):

Hinton has been fielding a new request to talk every two minutes since he spoke out on Monday about his fears that AI progress could lead to the end of civilisation within 20 years.

But when it comes to offering concrete advice, he is lost for words. “I’m not a policy guy,” he says. “I’m just someone who’s suddenly become aware that there’s a danger of something really bad happening. I wish I had a nice solution, like: ‘Just stop burning carbon, and you’ll be OK.’ But I can’t see a simple solution like that.”

In the past year, the rapid progress in AI models convinced Hinton to take seriously the threat that “digital intelligence” could one day supersede humanity’s.

“For the last 50 years, I’ve been trying to make computer models that can learn stuff a bit like the way the brain learns it, in order to understand better how the brain is learning things. But very recently, I decided that maybe these big models are actually much better than the brain.

We’re doomed, in other words. In the meantime, though, we should vote for bigger government:

“I’m a socialist,” Hinton added. “I think that private ownership of the media, and of the ‘means of computation’, is not good.

Let’s check in with our future AI overlord to see how the “new flagship model” does at arithmetic:

This calculation is explained confidently, but seems obviously wrong. The Biden-Harris administration gave away $170 billion in taxpayer funds to gender studies graduates and drop-outs (“student loan forgiveness”). At $1 million/day and zero interest it would take 170,000 days to pay off this single act of largesse. All that is required to do this in one’s head with middle school skilz is 170e9/1e6 and then 9-6=3 so we have 170e3. If we want to turn 170 thousand days into years we can see that works out to about 500 years because 170 can be approximated as 365/2.

So Hinton is saying that AI will go from not being able to do arithmetic or reason in orders of magnitude to destroying us all in 20 years.

Related…

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The nation’s smartest voters (New Yorkers)

by philg

We are informed by New York-based media that New Yorkers are highly intelligent Followers of Science and that voters in Arkansas, for example, are stupid. Let’s check out their respective politicians. Arkansans have sent Tom Cotton to the House and now Senate in three elections. Here’s part of Cotton’s Wikipedia biography:

Cotton was accepted to Harvard College after graduating from high school in 1995. At Harvard, he majored in government and was a member of the editorial board of The Harvard Crimson, often dissenting from the liberal majority. In articles, Cotton addressed what he saw as “sacred cows” such as affirmative action [He was an antiracist even in the 1990s!]. He graduated with an A.B. magna cum laude in 1998 after only three years of study. Cotton’s senior thesis focused on The Federalist Papers.

After graduating from Harvard Law School, Cotton spent one year as a law clerk for Judge Jerry Edwin Smith of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit.

On January 11, 2005, Cotton enlisted in the United States Army. He entered Officer Candidate School (OCS) in March 2005 and was commissioned as a second lieutenant in June. He completed the U.S. Army Ranger Course, a 62-day small unit tactics and leadership program that earned him the Ranger tab, and Airborne School to earn the Parachutist Badge.

In May 2006, Cotton was deployed to Baghdad as part of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) as a platoon leader with the 101st Airborne Division. In Iraq, he led a 41-man air assault infantry platoon in the 506th Infantry Regiment, and planned and performed daily combat patrols.

From October 2008 to July 2009, Cotton was deployed to eastern Afghanistan. He was assigned within the Train Advise Assist Command – East at its Gamberi forward operating base (FOB) in Laghman Province as the operations officer of a Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), where he planned daily counter-insurgency and reconstruction operations.

Cotton was honorably discharged in September 2009. During his time in the service, he completed two combat deployments overseas, was awarded a Bronze Star, two Army Commendation Medals, a Combat Infantryman Badge, a Ranger tab, an Afghanistan Campaign Medal, and an Iraq Campaign Medal.

Digression: What are the Iraqis doing now that Americans spent $trillions and tens of thousands of lives (in combat and back at home due to having spent all of that wealth; poverty kills just as surely as war) on “Operation Iraqi Freedom”? Chanting “Death to America”:

Let’s compare to the biographies and activities of the politicians and bureaucrats selected by the nation’s most intelligent people. First, there’s the New York City Lock Doc:

In conversations caught on hidden camera, New York City’s former COVID czar said that he’d organized a pair of sex parties in the second half of 2020, as New Yorkers coped with peak pandemic social isolation. “The only way I could do this job for the city was if I had some way to blow off steam every now and then,” Jay Varma told an undercover reporter with whom he thought he was on a date. In a video compiled from several recordings taken this summer, the onetime senior public-health adviser to city hall describes the two events that took place in August and November of 2020. He also talked about his work promoting vaccination in the city by making it “very uncomfortable” for those who wanted to avoid the shots.

And we also have Eric Adams:

Wikipedia says that Adams started his career as a gang member and collaborated with Louis Farrakhan and the Nation of Islam (“Farrakhan has accused Jews of controlling large sections of the media, the US government and the global economy, regularly referring to these Jews as “Satanic”. He has repeatedly described Adolf Hitler as a ‘great man'”).

Finally, New Yorkers chose Yusef Salaam as a lawmaker on the New York City Council. He was accused of attacking the Central Park Jogger and eventually found to be innocent of rape. WSJ story by the prosecutor:

Although none of the others admitted joining in the rape of Trisha Meili, they admitted attacking male victims and a couple on a tandem bike, and each of them named some or all of the five as joining them. … Mr. Salaam took the stand at his trial, represented by a lawyer chosen and paid for by his mother, and testified that he had gone into the park carrying a 14-inch metal pipe—the same type of weapon that was used to bludgeon both a male schoolteacher and Ms. Meili. Mr. Reyes’s confession changed none of this. He admitted being the man whose DNA had been left in the jogger’s body and on her clothing, but the two juries that heard those facts knew the main assailant in the rape had not been caught. The five were charged as accomplices, as persons “acting in concert” with each other and with the then-unknown man who raped the jogger, not as those who actually performed the act. In their original confessions—later recanted—they admitted to grabbing her breasts and legs, and two of them admitted to climbing on top of her and simulating intercourse. Semen was found on the inside of their clothing, corroborating those confessions.

Mr. Reyes’s confession, DNA match and claim that he acted alone required that the rape charges against the five be vacated. I agreed with that decision, and still do. But the other charges, for crimes against other victims, should not have been vacated. Nothing Mr. Reyes said exonerated these five of those attacks. And there was certainly more than enough evidence to support those convictions of first-degree assault, robbery, riot and other charges.

Americans are supposed to follow their NY-based intellectual leaders when voting. But are the above gentlemen the kinds of people whom the average American wants to give authority to? (Especially important now that government is bigger and far more powerful than ever.)

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Does Israel need a strategic bombing capability?

by philg

Today is the one-year anniversary of the fighting started by the Islamic Resistance Movement (“Hamas”), UNRWA, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad on October 7, 2023. The dragged-out low-intensity nature of of the battles over a 76-year period seem to show the potential for humanitarian aid to make wars last forever. See Florence Nightingale opposed the Red Cross:

How could anyone who sought to reduce human suffering want to make war less costly? By easing the burden on war ministries, Nightingale argued, volunteer efforts could simply make waging war more attractive, and more probable.

The Japanese and Germans didn’t get humanitarian aid in the early 1940s and they were quite happy to unconditionally surrender and not wage new wars against the people with whom they’d previously fought (at least so far). The majority of Palestinians polled, on the other hand, want to continue fighting Israel because, apparently, being at war with Israel isn’t an unsustainable lifestyle.

The desire among Palestinians to wage war isn’t new, of course. These are the folks who responded to Hamas’s promise to wage war by electing Hamas. What is new since October 7, 2023 is Israel being attacked by an enemy who is 1,000 miles away, i.e., Yemen. Israel has responded to Yemen’s missile attacks with a few feeble air raids, but the Yemenis aren’t discouraged. Israel doesn’t have the right aircraft to travel that kind of distance carrying enough bombs to change minds in Yemen or to destroy enough infrastructure that Iran can’t resupply Yemen with missiles.

(The Yemenis are another group of humans who can stay at war forever because all of their basic needs are met by international do-gooders. The UN feeds at least one third of Yemen (source) and the Yemenis have turned all of these external inputs into more Yemenis. The population was about 20 million when the civil war began in 2004 and today is estimated by the UN at close to 40 million.

US and EU taxpayers who have no children are always happy to work some extra hours to enable Yemenis to have one of the world’s highest rates of reproduction.)

The first question is whether strategic bombing is still practical in an age where missiles are, apparently, widely available. Could B-52s operate over Yemen, for example, with protection from fighters? If the answer is “yes”, wouldn’t it make sense for Israel to invest in a modern fleet of bombers?

I think it would be interesting to adapt the Airbus A380 to serve as a bomber. The B-52 isn’t any stronger in terms of handling g loads than an airliner. It carries just 70,000 lbs. of bombs and is a huge maintenance and fuel hog. The A380 can hold 330,000 lbs. of payload (the 747-8F can hold about 295,000 lbs.) and both aircraft can easily make the round trip from Israel to Yemen while fully loaded.

Since Israel doesn’t have $trillions to print and burn as the U.S. apparently does, perhaps the country could engineer an A380 or 747-8F to carry freight most of the time but be readily convertible to strategic bomber when it is time to eliminate Yemen’s military capabilities.

If the answer is that old-school bombers are too vulnerable to widely available missiles then perhaps Israel needs to figure out a way to deliver B-52 or Airbus A380 loads of explosives in some other way. But what would that be? Missiles that are launched from Israel? Missiles that are launched from a ship? Drone aircraft? (the Yemenis recently shot down a $30 million American MQ-9 Reaper (AP) so this doesn’t seem like a good approach unless the drones can be mass-produced at low cost)

Related:

  • “The feeling, such as there is, over Dresden, could be easily explained by any psychiatrist. It is connected with German bands and Dresden shepherdesses. Actually Dresden was a mass of munitions works, an intact government centre, and a key transportation point to the East. It is now none of these things.” — Arthur Travers Harris, after people complained that the bombers he commanded had destroyed Dresden
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Does Kamala Harris propose “Socialism” or “Xboxism”?

by philg

My response to an X user who wrote “Usually it’s an exaggeration to claim that the other side is lunatic socialism. With Kamala 2024 that’s become a reality we face.”:

I don’t think that it is fair to call Democrats “socialists”. Under Socialism, e.g., in the Soviet Union, able-bodied citizens were required to work or be guilty of the crime of “Parasitism”. There were no undocumented immigrants. Certainly, a Soviet family couldn’t spend four generations living in public housing, getting free health care via Medicaid, shopping for food with EBT, and chatting on an Obamaphone. Kamala Harris and friends propose a system in which half of a country works/commutes 60 hours/week so that the other half can relax and play Xbox. That’s not a political system contemplated by Marx or Lenin. Maybe it should be called Xboxism?

Note that the above idea isn’t original. “Transferism, Not Socialism, Is the Drug Americans Are Hooked On” (Foundation for Economic Education):

Transferism is a system in which one group of people forces a second group to pay for things that the people believe they, or some third group, should have. Transferism isn’t about controlling the means of production. It is about the forced redistribution of what’s produced.

I think Xboxism is an easier term to understand, though, because it captures what government policy enables. And now that we have open borders we need a term that covers a migrant family that arrives to take up the Maskachusetts offer of guaranteed shelter forever even if nobody ever tries to work but instead enjoys a life of permanent leisure.

Related:

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Lowriders in Fort Worth

by philg

The leisure hours of a software expert witness at trial are few. I did find time to celebrate Hispanic Heritage Month by walking out of the war room and into Fort Worth’s Sundance Square for a September 21st event “Celebrating Hispanic Heritage Month with a vibrant showcase of lowriders and culture.” Here are some photos.

If you thought that the hydraulics on an Airbus A380 were complex…

Medium format never dies…

Elizabeth Warren’s family made it down to the event:

It would be nice if gold wheels were a factory option for the Honda Odyssey:

If a minivan isn’t sufficiently stylish, even with gold wheels, here’s what I think is an early 1950s Chevrolet Suburban (it seems smaller than today’s behemoths):

I reminded the person carrying this bag that “The Latinx do it better” was the correct modern form:

Some elegance:

Ideas for next time we have the Honda Odyssey repainted:

ChatGPT says that the correct expression for the situation below is “Mejor tu hermana en un prostíbulo que tu hermano en una Honda.”

Sundance Square during the event:

Later that night…

There’s an It’s Sugar store half a block away for dancers who get tired. They feature some Tim Walz gummi candies:

And some Kamala Harris/Joe Biden/Whoever Is Running the Country Peace for Our Time gummi candies for sharing with Iranian, Lebanese, and Palestinian friends:

Circling back to the subject of lowriders, is there another car culture that has been created by an ethnic group? We could perhaps say that minivans are the apotheosis of white American culture. Now that a substantial percentage of Haiti’s former population lives here in the U.S. has a distinctive Haitian car culture developed? How about an Arab-American car culture in Dearborn, Michigan?

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Lebanon takes a victimhood master class from Hamas

by philg

Palestinians have run a master class in victimhood since October 8, 2023. Westerners accept that there has been a “genocide” in a part of the world whose population is growing. The Islamic Resistance Movement (“Hamas”) has demonstrated that it is possible to convince Westerners that civilians have been targeted and massacred merely by setting up a “health ministry” that will release a death toll without distinguishing between soldiers and civilians. (It is unclear why there would be an actual health ministry in a Palestinian area given that taxpayers in the US and EU fund all health care for Palestinians via UNRWA.) A Westerner will read that 41,000 noble Gazans have been killed by the evil Israelis and his/her/zir/their brain processes that as “41,000 civilians suffered the unjust fate of being killed”.

It seems now that the Lebanese, who declared war on Israel in 1948 and never accepted a peace treaty nor recognized the state of Israel, have learned from the masters. “Israel pounds Lebanon, pressuring Hezbollah after killing its leader” (Reuters, September 29):

Lebanon’s Health Ministry said more than 1,000 Lebanese were killed and 6,000 wounded in the past two weeks, without saying how many were civilians. The government said a million people – a fifth of the population – had fled their homes.

The noble Lebanese suffered a pager/walkie-talkie attack on September 17-18, 2024 and, therefore, the “two week” period above includes people who were killed or wounded by their Hezbollah-purchased devices.

Separately, the article is interesting for portraying the Lebanese as united behind Hezbollah:

“We lost the leader who gave us all the strength and faith that we, this small country that we love, could turn it into a paradise,” said Lebanese Christian woman Sophia Blanche Rouillard, carrying a black flag to work in Beirut.

“You won’t be able to destroy us, whatever you do, however much you bomb, however much you displace people – we will stay here. We won’t leave. This is our country and we’re staying,” said Francoise Azori, a Beirut resident jogging through the area.

And it looks like the Lebanese are on track for the fully funded lifestyle that Palestinians have enjoyed for 76 years:

The U.N. World Food Programme said it had launched an emergency operation to provide food for those affected by the conflict.

(Everyone in Lebanon has been “affected by the conflict” (that Lebanon started in 1948) and, therefore, everyone in Lebanon is entitled to free food paid for by US/EU taxpayers. Note that about 10 percent of the Lebanese population is already registered with UNRWA as “Palestinian refugees” and, therefore, already getting free food, housing, health care, education, etc.)

If we follow the dogma of revealed preference, it seems that being at war with Israel and receiving international aid is preferred to being at peace with Israel and having to go to work every day.

Here’s some 2019 propaganda from the U.S. State Department:

Since 2007, the United States has provided nearly $5 billion in assistance, investing in the development of Lebanon’s sovereignty and stability through economic growth, education, poverty alleviation, refugee and humanitarian assistance, and local level public service provision. American assistance spans military, internal security, demining, justice, education, public services and economic growth.

“In few places in the world can we so positively help to build institutions,” said Michelle Ward, management officer at Embassy Beirut. “In Lebanon, we have a real opportunity to partner with the Lebanese on development, defense and diplomatic engagements.”

Lebanese public awareness of U.S. government assistance is perhaps greatest regarding support for the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) where the U.S. government has invested more than $2.29 billion since 2005, training more than 32,000 LAF soldiers in the U.S. and Lebanon. The LAF has developed its role as a broad, cross-sectarian and nationally unifying force able to protect against external and internal threats. Lebanon is the only government in the region to have defeated the Islamic State group of Iraq and the Levant unassisted.

The Lebanese have $500 million/year of military assistance from the United Nations (previous post) and, apparently, billions of pre-Biden dollars from the U.S. for military assistance. Yet the Germans say “The Lebanese state lacks power to contain the escalating conflict between Hezbollah and Israel unfolding on its territory. Its army is notoriously weak too.” This is especially perplexing given that we know that diversity is the sure path to strength. With a diverse mixture of Christians, Sunni Muslims, and Shiite Muslims, plus all of that cash from the US and help from the UN, why isn’t the Lebanese state one of the world’s strongest? The Germans say that assembling people who don’t share a common religion is a huge mistake in Lebanon (but it is a great idea in Germany?):

This weakness has historical roots. “Lebanon was founded in the early 20th century as a state of Christian Maronites in alliance with the French as a protecting power,” says Markus Schneider, who heads the Friedrich-Ebert foundation’s regional project for peace and security in the Middle East in the Lebanese capital Beirut.

“The birth defect was that it included large areas of non-Maronite populations from the outset,” Schneider told DW. “Confessionalism was a compromise in order to integrate other sections of the population. This however prevented the emergence of a strong nation state.”

This confessional structure became further entrenched in the Lebanese civil war that erupted in 1975, pitting the country’s three largest denominations — Shiites, Sunnis and Maronite Christians — against each other. After the end of the civil war in 1990, a system was established to better balance the interests of the individual confessional groups.

The term “confessional” here means “a group of people with similar religious beliefs”. Lebanon cannot have “a strong nation state” because it is a mixture Christians and Muslims. European nations and the U.S., however, will become far stronger as Christians and Muslims are mixed.

The Lebanese government hasn’t been entirely ineffective. It managed to order and enforce a Science-inspired lockdown on October 2, 2020:

Lebanon Followed the Science and had 416 excess deaths per 100,000 population from 2020-2021. Sweden deplorably rejected the Science and had 91 excess deaths per 100,000 during the same period. (Lancet) (For comparison, the Science followers of New York State suffered from 205 excess deaths per 100,000.)

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Should my friend apply to a Massachusetts town for permission to turn his house into a for-profit migrant shelter?

by philg

A friend owns a 6,000-square-foot house in our former suburb of Lincoln, Maskachusetts. Loyal readers might remember the 2019 post Harvard graduate discovers that the suburbs are packed with narrow-minded white heterosexuals:

The old white guy who led the First Parish church in our suburban town, a union of Congregational and Unitarian, retired. The Millionaires for Obama on the church hiring committee found Manish Mishra-Marzetti, a young Indian-American (Indian from India, not Indian like Elizabeth Warren) to become the new minister (in 2015). He, his husband, and their two adopted kids (characterized as “African American” in the video link below) moved into our midst.

On paper, at least, this guy is exactly the kind of person that the residents say that they want to assist and/or get to know better. He’s the child of immigrants. His skin is nearly as dark as a Virginia Democrat headed out for a party. He identifies as LGBTQIA. He organized trips to our southern border to assist migrants. He sermonized against the evils of Trump and Trump supporters.

I don’t think that I’ve written about it here, but some years ago there was a non-profit org that applied for zoning permission to turn a house in the town into a halfway house for, I think, mentally disabled adults. The halfway house would receive massive amounts of state funding for each person served. Democrats on the town discussion list went nuts. Each email started with praise for the idea of this kind of taxpayer-funded service and ended with the thought that it would make a lot more sense to operate such a house in some other town or city within Maskachusetts. If memory serves, the righteous managed to kill the proposal despite some sort of state law that ostensibly neuters local opposition.

My friend has a love of irony and he’ll soon be moving out of this house and into a tax-free Deplorable-rich state. Before he goes, though, I suggested that he have some fun by applying for zoning permission to operate a state-funded for-profit migrant shelter. His house would become home to four families of enrichers. As there is just one kitchen, the migrants would receive professionally cooked meals prepared in the central kitchen by paid staff. The migrants are undocumented and may not be able to get driver’s licenses and the town isn’t walkable. Thus, transportation would be provided by volunteers and also a paid service. Residents of Lincoln claim that they love Black people (cue the BLM signs on nearly every lawn that lasted at least until progressives transitioned to Queers for Palestine). Telegraph that the residents will be exclusively Haitian by including Haitian Creole-speaking wellness coaches and yoga instructors in the budget and asking the town for permission to have a 2’x4′ English/Haitian Creole sign in front.

Readers: What else could be added to this proposal to make it more expensive to taxpayers (yet still plausible and in line with what Maskachusetts taxpayers are currently paying for sheltered migrants) and more objectionable to the townsfolk who are the first to say that they love and support migrants and People of Color?

Based on “Massachusetts spending over $15k per month per family on migrant housing and transportation” (Fall River Reporter), my friend’s Lincoln Migrant Shelter would enjoy revenue of $60,000 per month ($720,000/year). Let’s assume that property tax is $30,000/year and two full-time people can do driving, shopping, cooking, and cleaning ($200,000/year). USDA says that the monthly cost of food on a “liberal plan” is about $400 per person so that’s another $60,000ish for the groceries (assume four “families” = 12 people). If we figure $40,000/year for maintenance and insurance, that’s about $400,000/year in gross profit for the enterprise. That’s a 20 percent return on investment if the house is worth $2 million.

Related:

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Florida after Hurricane Helene

by philg

It looks as though Florida is more or less cleaned up after Hurricane Helene. All schools were open as of yesterday:

The hurricane made landfall on September 26 and power was almost completely restored by September 30:

As of today, approximately 23,000 of Florida’s 11.4 million electricity customers are out:

I’m in Fort Worth, Texas right now as part of a software/electronics/avionics expert witness project so I haven’t been carefully following hurricane clean-up outside of Florida. The New York Times gives the impression that nothing bad has happened to anyone in North Carolina, for example. The current front page is all about the bad things that the prophets of the NYT expect Donald Trump to do if a second Nakba should occur:

(Note that the Biden-Harris-Whoever-Is-Actually-Running-Things administration recently prosecuted and imprisoned a Republican for a troll tweet that Democrats should vote by SMS. Harvard Law Review: “That Mackey’s primitive meme — sandwiched between thousands of his other tweets — could have fooled American voters into believing that the 2016 election allowed voting by text does indeed strain belief.” See also “Man Who Spread Misinformation on Trump’s Behalf Sentenced to 7 Months” (NYT). Reason notes that the Biden-Harris-Whoever criminal justice apparatus used its discretion to refrain from prosecuting a Democrat for similar behavior and that the law used to imprison the Republican was passed in 1870 “to deter the Ku Klux Klan from trying to prevent black people from voting”.)

The next section down is about how Trump is bad while Kamala Harris and Liz Cheney are good:

If the NYT is our guide, as I hope that it is for all of us, nothing newsworthy is going on with respect to Hurricane Helene damage either in Florida or anywhere else.

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Why doesn’t the U.S. try to buy migrants from Europe?

by philg

We are informed that low-skill migrants make the native-born richer and that, therefore, a country’s borders should be mostly open (albeit never described as “open borders” because that is hate speech/conspiracy theory). We also informed that Europeans don’t want to be rich… ”Europe Grasps for Ways to Stop the Migrant Surge” (WSJ):

The biggest swing in sentiment has been in Germany, long a proponent of generous policies toward refugees. Pressure has been building in recent years as the nation absorbed millions of immigrants, weighing on the welfare system and municipal services. Migration was a key theme in Sunday’s closely watched regional election in Brandenburg, where the governing Social Democrats narrowly beat the far-right Alternative for Germany party, or AfD.

Last week, the coalition government in Berlin reintroduced limited border checks to all neighboring countries, after a knife attack in late August by a failed asylum seeker killed three people in the city of Solingen during a festival to celebrate its 650th anniversary. The attacker was a 26-year-old Syrian with links to Islamic State who had evaded deportation for more than a year after losing his asylum case.

Since the pandemic ended, governments across the continent have struggled to cope with rising numbers of asylum seekers and are grasping for ways to stem the flow, from curbing taxpayer-funded benefits to asylum seekers to striking deals with non-EU countries to temporarily or permanently house would-be refugees.

Last year, a near-record 1.14 million people filed asylum claims in Europe, the highest number since the height of the 2015 migration crisis in Europe, when more than a million Syrians fleeing that country’s civil war entered the bloc.

An extra 1.14 million/ asylum seekers per year would moderately enrich the United States, both culturally and economically. In the pre-Biden years, we were enriched by approximately 22 million undocumented immigrants (Yale 2018) and at least another 10 million have come across the border during the Dr. Jill Biden-Kamala Harris administration.

For nearly everything else that has value in this world there is some kind of market. There is “a bid”, in other words, as the Wall Streeters say. Why hasn’t the U.S. bid to take all of the migrants that Europeans don’t want? We are told that migrants are precious. Why aren’t we offering, for example, to pay Germany $100,000 per migrant and also to pay each migrant $100,000 as a “welcome to America bonus” (on top of the means-tested public housing, means-tested health insurance, SNAP/EBT (“food stamps”), and Obamaphone to which migrants will be entitled)? And if we did offer $200,000 (total) per migrant, wouldn’t we expect to face competition from other countries that seek to be enriched?

Separately, here’s a Reuters story on a beachhead in Africa that Spain continues to hold (why?). My favorite line is “Moroccan nationals detained during the crossings are immediately sent back to Morocco unless they are underage or seeking asylum, [Cristina Perez, the Spanish government’s representative in Ceuta] said.” Unless the migrants are remarkably unintelligent, why wouldn’t they all claim to fall into one of these categories? Like the U.S. system, the European immigration system seems to be premised on the assumption that humans never lie.

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Why can’t supervisors and replacement workers unload container ships during the longshoremen’s strike?

by philg

When the typical business is hit by a strike it is able to continue operating at a reduced capacity via the use of supervisors and/or replacement workers (airlines are an exception due to FAA regulations; see “Unions and Airlines”). Why are Atlantic and Gulf Coast U.S. ports completely shut down by the International Longshoremen’s Association strike for a 77 percent wage increase to compensate them for the inflation that the Biden-Harris administration says does not exist (CBS; 77 percent is pretty close to the rise in the cost of buying a house during the Biden-Harris years, considering the increase in price and the increase in mortgage rates).

The port operators have offered a 50 percent wage increase to compensate workers for non-existent inflation and the strike relates to the 77 v. 50 number.

Today’s question is why ports are shut down. Managers aren’t part of a union. Why can’t the management/supervisory staff at the ports operate the cranes and unload container ships at a reduced rate compared to if a full staff were available? Continued operations at a reduced capacity is what happened after Ronald Reagan fired America’s striking unionized air traffic controllers (state-sponsored NPR).

Historically, American employers had the right to hire permanent replacement workers for striking union workers, though the Biden-Harris administration is trying to eliminate that right (source (2023)):

The law of the land for the last 60 years has permitted employers to permanently replace employees engaged in an economic strike, providing employers with the right to hire workers to continue business operations in response to a union’s use of its most potent economic weapon. In its decision in Hot Shoppes, Inc., 146 NLRB 802 (1964),the Board held that employers may lawfully hire permanent replacements and that this action is not inherently destructive of the right to strike under the National Labor Relations Act (“Act”), making the employer’s motive for hiring the replacements immaterial. Accordingly, an employer does not need to prove it had a business necessity when hiring permanent replacements or that the employer’s ability to continue operations during a strike required the hiring of the replacements. Rather, the GC has the burden of proving the employer violated the Act by permanently replacing strikers because of an “independent unlawful purpose.”

Even if Biden-Harris makes it illegal for the ports to hire permanent replacements, why can’t the ports operate with temporary replacements? The container cranes are highly automated, which has, in fact, been a big motivation for fighting between unions and management (the “workers” aren’t actually required for the “work” because robots do a better job at running the cranes).

It looks like ports are mostly automated in other parts of the world, e.g., China, Europe, and Central America (source):

But the U.S. does have some ports that you’d think could be operated by managers. From the same article:

Currently, only four out of 360 commercial ports in the U.S. have at least semi-automated terminals: Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York & New Jersey and Virginia.

Why wouldn’t NY/NJ and Virginia be up and running with managers staring at the monitors while the computers do all the real work?

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