Eisenhower biography suggests that we should avoid war

I’ve been gradually listening to Eisenhower in War and Peace as an audio book. The author, Jean Edward Smith, is a professor of political science.

It turns out that the Eisenhower family confirms the thesis regarding a genetic basis for family success put forward in The Son Also Rises. The Eisenhower boys were descended from successful German immigrants on both maternal and paternal sides. Their father, however, was unsuccessful as a provider and as a father, providing virtually no emotional or financial assistance. Yet, according to the book, all of the Eisenhower brothers achieved significant career success. (The Son Also Rises suggests that an unsuccessful family will have the occasional outlier who is successful and that a successful family will have the occasional outlier, e.g., Eisenhower’s father, who is unsuccessful, but that a next generation is likely to achieve more in line with the family mean.)

Are you dismayed that our current crop of politicians is dishonest if not always outright corrupt? The author, who is sympathetic to both his subject and to FDR, characterizes Roosevelt as a habitual “dissembler” and Eisenhower as, while ostentatiously taking “buck stops here” responsibility for small mistakes, pinning the blame for his biggest mistakes on others by rewriting (military) history with some lies built in. Upset at the lack of decorum during campaigns? Eisenhower’s opponents spread rumors that he was Jewish and chanted “Ike the Kike”. Adlai Stevenson, Ike’s opponent, had been sued by his wife in 1949, thus making him the first divorced presidential candidate. This opened the door to opponents insinuating that Stevenson was homosexual. (The ex-wife went on to sue her mother in 1958 in order to obtain possession of a lakefront mansion.) Harry S. Truman and Robert A. Taft are the only politicians who are portrayed as having complete integrity. One anti-partisan act by Truman described in this book is the destruction of a letter from George C. Marshall to Eisenhower that revealed the affair with Kay Summersby (see below).

The book describes nearly all of the senior American military officers stationed in Europe as having had local sweethearts and little attempt was made to disguise these sexual relationships. Eisenhower’s was Kay Summersby, a source of some gossip back in D.C. Divorce was a career-ender, however, so these women were generally abandoned when it was time to return home to the U.S. and the wife. This was prior to the era of statutory cash profits for out-of-wedlock children (quite limited even today in most of Europe) and the women behaved in apparent accordance with the economic incentives of the day, not producing any children despite the comparatively primitive nature of contraception at the time.

When these American officers were not having sex with their mistresses (sometimes in luxurious Mediterranean villas on 5-day vacations from the war) they turned their attention to matters military. The standard story here seems to be that we were incompetent in the early parts of the war, e.g., getting beaten by heavily outnumbered German forces in North Africa (and even French forces, who refrained from fighting the Germans, nearly beat us), but that we learned to fight. This book says that our senior generals, including Eisenhower, never learned anything about fighting other than “Let British officers plan the actual fighting.” According to the book, with the exception of those made by George Patton, in-the-field decisions by American generals were almost always disastrous. This was true during the Normandy invasion, for example, when the American-led assault on Omaha beach was nearly thrown back while the Canadian- and British-led attacks on other beaches went more smoothly. Patton summarized his friend Eisenhower’s qualities with “I hope he makes a better president than he was a general.”

According to this biographer, Eisenhower is responsible for the division of Germany. Under British command the ground war was basically won in the fall of 1944. The Germans expected that any day the Allies would concentrate their forces, punch through the German lines, and drive to Berlin. This didn’t happen because Eisenhower wanted to assume battlefield glory for himself. He took over command and applied the American doctrine of “attack on a wide front,” which was regarded as inappropriate in modern warfare by British, French, and German generals. Smith says that this extended the war by at least six months and cost the Allies 500,000 men killed, wounded, or missing. It also gave the Russians time to conquer eastern Germany and Berlin. It gave the Germans time to kill 100,000+ Jews in various death camps (see deaths-by-year chart in Wikipedia).

If this author is correct, the American military is essentially unable to learn from its mistakes and, even with a 10:1 advantage in soldiers and equipment, is at risk of losing any fight.

[Note that Jean Edward Smith describes Eisenhower as being exceptionally competent at high-level coordination and some big picture stuff. As a military officer he opposed the decision to use atomic weapons against Japan, which he considered to have been very nearly defeated via conventional means. As President he twice rejected advice from subordinates to use nuclear weapons (against China and Vietnam). Eisenhower correctly predicted that the U.S. could not maintain a monopoly on nuclear weapons technology and favored giving all nations equal access to such technology. (i.e., he failed to foresee that states such as Afghanistan, Somalia, Libya, Syria, would lose central government control and thus that their military weapons would fall into the hands of non-state groups). As president of Columbia University, a position in which he exerted little effort, he was an advocate for open debate (proponents of speech limits then were trying to exclude Communist points of view). One big area where the jury may never come back is whether Eisenhower was correct to favor maintaining a U.S. military presence all around the world and fighting the anti-Communist fight. His principal Republican opponent, Robert A. Taft, advocated a military and foreign policy more like China’s today: trade with everyone, restrict military activities to one’s immediate neighborhood. Presumably there have been some benefits to us from the World Police role, but can they offset the costs of the Korean, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan wars?]

Readers: Has our military gotten a lot better at fighting and at learning since World War II? Or does our track record since then show that we still aren’t the military geniuses we imagine ourselves to be? (Or we do correctly perceive our incompetence and inefficiency and therefore spend way more than anyone else in order to avoid having Mexico and Canada take us over?)

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An interesting race discrimination lawsuit

We’re going to have fantastic economic growth… as long as litigation over bathroom usage and skin color generate as much as output as machine tools.

Here’s an interesting lawsuit covered by the Daily Mail: Young woman with a mixture of “German, Irish and Italian descent” is told that she doesn’t qualify for a “Multicultural Undergraduate Internship” at the Getty Foundation.

Up until now private institutions have been able to select students, for example, based on skin color. It was public universities that ran into trouble and litigation when they operated race-based admissions programs. I’ll be interested to find out what the legal theory is here. The Getty is entirely private. Why can’t they say “We don’t want to hire any white people”?

If a court says “No, you can’t choose by race” what about other non-profit programs that are limited by age? (Disclosure: I helped set up one myself that would potentially become illegal in a changed legal regime.)

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Eisenhower-era tax-avoidance strategies from… Eisenhower

I’ve been listening to Eisenhower in War and Peace. Supporters of Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton sometimes reference Eisenhower-era top marginal tax rates as evidence that the U.S. economy can thrive under a similar system. Eisenhower, himself, though, managed to avoid these rates. He was paid roughly $6 million in today’s dollars for writing Crusade in Europe (one thing that Eisenhower did not foresee was the rise of Islam as a military force!). Instead of the deal with the publisher being structured as advance-plus-royalties it was a lump sum for turning over the completed manuscript. Thus it qualified for a roughly 25 percent capital gains tax rate rather than a marginal ordinary income tax rate of 82 percent.

[Note that Eisenhower was generally in favor of trimming government spending, especially military spending (the biggest budget item of the time), so as not to “rob citizens of the fruits of their labors.” But he abhorred deficit spending/government borrowing, the U.S. was heavily indebted following World War II (though not as indebted in the 1950s as now), and therefore did not help Congress deliver on Republican campaign promises to cut tax rates.]

Another tax comparison from the book: A Federal gasoline tax of 4 cents/gallon was imposed in the mid-1950s to pay for building the Interstate Highway System. That works out to 36 cents/gallon in today’s mini-dollars. Current Federal gas tax is 18 cents/gallon, which turns out not to be enough to maintain the system (Heritage). (See “Cost to renovate Longfellow Bridge compared to its construction cost”)

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Haiku contest: Summarize your Facebook feed

Let’s have a haiku contest. Can you summarize your Facebook feed in a haiku (bonus points for restricting to 5-7-5).

Having been part of a university community for many years, here are some examples of what Facebook shows me:

I’ll go further – If you hate our country so much that you think this inexperienced ill-equipped racist asshole [Donald Trump] should be put in charge of our government, our military, our domestic policy and foreign relationships then you should think about moving out because you are anti everything this country stands for and you dont [sic] belong here. And we will not miss you.

I call on all Bernie supporters to rally behind Hillary Clinton. The danger that Trump and the republikans represent to us all are unthinkable. They will set our country back 50 years, undo all social progress and destroy our economy and global standing- or worse. We must unite to defeat them. Bernie is a true progressive – a mensch – and will be an important ally in the Senate. You know he will be supporting Hillary – and we all need to do the same.

Goodbye Rubio and good riddance. You were extreme and dangerous but in this crazy year not extreme or dangerous enough for the haters of your party.

Mitt Romney just told the truth about Trump…and then many lies about Hillary Clinton. Thanks for reminding us how much worse off we’d have been if we’d elected this pompous elitist empty suit – and the danger of ever electing the super-rich and over-entitled.

Heres [sic] our next “First Lady”, wielding a handgun. Imagine the outcry if Michelle Obama posed like this – but only silence from the right. Share this around. And stop it from happening. [over a photo of a lightly dressed young Melania Trump]

When I was young and learning about the Holocaust I wondered how someone like Hitler could come to power in a country that had smart talented resourceful people, and whether I would have had the courage to resist the rise of nazism and fascism. We are nearing that kind of challenge and that need to fight to protect our Nation and it’s values from thugs and haters – domestic terrorists – who seem bent on destroying it. We cannot let them succeed.

Speaks for itself. Donald Trump is a fascist. [over a link discussing Fred Trump’s purported screening prospective apartment building tenants by race (now our tax dollars fund race-based decisions by government public housing ministries under the “affirmative action” banner)]

Another example of the efforts by Republicans to limit the voting rights of minorities. Sad and infuriating. [over an article on voter requirements; the (white) author feels comfortable assuming and asserting that American minorities are inferior to white Americans in their ability to comply with annoying bureaucracy]

If Trump becomes President, Trudeau is giving me another reason to move to Canada. [not sure that the author of this one would qualify as he is around 65 and, like most countries with publicly funded medical care, Canada disfavors older immigrants with a point system: “Persons … lose two points for each year that they are under twenty-one or over forty-nine.”]

Throw the key away on [Dennis Hastert]. Harsh, but it makes me real angry. [i.e., the author has the courage to denounce someone who is both an admitted child molester and an admitted Republican]

I usually agree with Krugman, and today is no change from that stance.

A ticked off young woman speaking truth to power: [over an article in which a Starbucks customer called Florida Governor Rick Scott an asshole and noted “You cut Medicaid, so I couldn’t get Obamacare,” (but she still has enough money to patronize Starbucks?)]

These mouths remind me of a politician we all know and denigrate! [over an article titled “Monkeys With Smaller Testicles Scream Louder to Compensate, Study Finds”; what would happen if one of his friends compared Barack Obama to a monkey?]

The emerging Repulsive Republican ticket: Oink and Oink. [over an article about Donald Trump and Chris Christie]

Let me repeat: this man is a fascist. It he is President, he’ll create and endorse storm troopers outfitted with Trump ties.

Here’s my haiku summary of the above:

I hate Donald Trump
Liberals are my besties
Important to share

Readers: What’s your haiku summary of your Facebook feed?

[Separate question: Why is there so much political content on Facebook? The above folks suggest that they don’t want to live in the same country as anyone who identifies as a Republican. It should therefore be safe to assume that they have long since defriended anyone whom they suspect of supporting Trump, Cruz, et al. Thus their postings can’t reach beyond fellow Democrats and therefore they are spending a lot of time preaching to the converted, right? Why would they do this? Do they achieve higher social status among Hillary supporters for the vehemence and creativity of their denunciations of Donald Trump and traditional Republicans?]

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Group of women under 50 tells others to be more diverse

Ellen Pao is the gift that keeps on giving for this blog. She is part of the team at Project Include. These folks purport to tell companies how to build diversity. Some excerpts from Pao’s new site:

Research has quantified the financial benefits of racial, ethnic, and gender diversity. Despite this, we have yet to see significant improvement in diversity numbers. [i.e., business owners don’t want to be richer]

We want to provide our perspectives, recommendations, materials, and tools to help CEOs and their teams build meaningful inclusion. We know how hard change is from our own experiences. [Yet Pao’s husband managed to change from homosexual to heterosexual. Are there changes that happen in cubicle farms that are more difficult?]

We are focusing our efforts on CEOs and management of early to mid-stage tech startups, where we believe change is possible and can have a broad impact on the industry and beyond.

We want the girls, people of color, and other underrepresented groups that we are encouraging to pursue STEM educations and future tech jobs to have real opportunities to succeed. [As noted in “Women in Science,” academic success in science may not constitute “success” using a financial or career flexibility yardstick.]

Making a few inferences from photos, names, and biographies on the site, it would seem that this is a group of people who (a) all identify as women, and (b) all but one identify as under age 50. This homogeneous group purports to be expert in achieving diversity. Yet if diversity is a guaranteed path to success, shouldn’t Project Include bring in (“include”) at least one more aged fossil (i.e., a Silicon Valley-dweller over 50)? Or some employees who identify as men? Or encourage some of their current team members to change gender ID to “male”?

[Separately, let’s look at the Project Include team to see if their biographies will inspire “girls, people of color, and other underrepresented groups” to go into STEM. The wealthiest member of the group it would seem is Freada Kapor Klein. Her Wikipedia page indicates no training in STEM and all of her wealth is a result of marrying Mitchell Kapor, the founder of Lotus. This is about as inspiring as the Harvard undergrad who said “I used to think that I wanted to be an investment banker, but then I realized that I could just marry an investment banker.” (if she had been a little more educated about U.S. family law, she might not have included the marriage part in her plan) Y-Vonne Hutchinson has done some awesome stuff, e.g., “worked with foreign governments, the U.S. Department of State, and the UN” and is affiliated with Harvard Law School. She is trained as a lawyer, however, not in STEM. Ellen Pao herself, of course, also has a law background and did not work at a technical job. Erica Joy Baker is described as “a seasoned software engineer” yet is being paid to spend “20 percent of her time at Slack advocating for diversity and inclusion, both within and outside of the company.” If she were a great programmer, why would the company want her to write code only 80-percent time?]

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Time to bring back amphetamines for weight loss?

“After ‘The Biggest Loser,’ Their Bodies Fought to Regain Weight” (nytimes) reports on a doctor who followed reality TV contestants and concluded that a slowed metabolism accounted for their inability to maintain weight loss.

I wonder if it should make us reconsider our notions of progress in medicine. In the 1950s an overweight person would have been diagnosed for $10 with a slow metabolism and given a $2/month amphetamine prescription to speed up said metabolism. Today the same person could be a $50,000/year customer for weight loss clinics, supplements, surgeries, etc.

Obviously being on amphetamine for years is harmful (see “America’s First Amphetamine Epidemic 1929–1971”), but is it as harmful as weighing 300 lbs?

Readers: What do you think? Should medicine concentrate on speeding up metabolism, possibly with new drugs, or is that also doomed due to the fact that people can just have a second donut?

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Obamacare for multi-millionaires

A friend told me how pleased he was with MassHealth, our state’s version of Medicaid. “It is much better than Blue Cross. There are no deductibles and dental care is included and free,” said the father of two. His wife said “the only thing that would be better is if we got divorced and then I could get all of the single mom stuff.”

The potentially interesting part of this story is that my friend’s mailing address is a suburban house on 2.6 acres of land with a Zestimate of $3.2 million and a price/tax history indicating that he purchased it for $2.1 million back in 2006. The health insurance ministry probably wouldn’t have been aware of the family’s 50-acre 8-bedroom (including guest house) vacation estate.

“Obamacare removed the asset test for Medicaid,” he explained. So they look only at income? “No. I actually had a good year in 2015 with a lot of capital gains.” [“A lot” of capital gains for this guy would be hundreds of thousands or single-digit millions of dollars.] What was the method for determining whether or not the taxpayers would pick up the tab for this family of four’s health and dental care? “They look only at W-2 income.”

Note that this makes collecting alimony and child support relatively more lucrative compared to working. Child support revenue, regardless of the amount, doesn’t count as “income” to qualify for this taxpayer-funded benefit. Alimony profits can be banked without a W-2 being issued. Jessica Kosow, the plaintiff in a typical higher-income Massachusetts case (see this chapter on Massachusetts family law), would qualify for free MassHealth despite having obtained, via litigation, triple the spending power of her Ivy League classmates with W-2 jobs:

In a June 22, 2011 status conference for this case [wife sued husband after four years of marriage when their daughter was two years old], Judge Maureen Monks explained her philosophy in setting child support for high income defendants: “when I look at how the current guidelines play out against most parties’ income it comes around between 20 and 25 percent, sometimes it’s a little higher. If there’s a big disparity it’s closer to 28 percent. Does that mean it makes sense is that what to assess up to a certain amount on his income. Maybe there is no limit right now…”

How did she do compared to her University of Pennsylvania classmates? payscale.com reported that in 2014 the median “mid-career” salary for a graduate of this Ivy League college was $112,200. If that graduate stayed in Pennsylvania, his or her earnings would be approximately $77,240 per year after taxes (ADP Paycheck Calculator). Kosow’s after-tax earnings, on the other hand would be approximately $132,786 in cash plus the free $1 million house (assume a rental value of $6000 per month), health insurance, and nanny services. Her total after-tax earnings from the Massachusetts divorce and child support system therefore would be about $250,000 per year, 3.2X what a Penn graduate working full-time would earn.

[Of course, this particular plaintiff might not take the time to fill out the forms for MassHealth due to the fact that she obtained a court order that her former husband pay her health insurance bill.]

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Robot to mute NPR stations during commercials?

How about this for an AI project: a computer system that takes the audio stream of a National Public Radio station and presents a commercial-free audio stream as an output, presumably with at least a one-minute delay.

It should be pretty easy for a classical music station. There isn’t too much talking and the non-commercial stuff is typically right before or after a piece. Even a program that simply muted humans talking and let through music would perhaps be sufficient (though watch out for Recitative!).

For an NPR talk/news station it would presumably be tougher because the same announcers present both content and commercials. However, that’s what makes it a great project for a Master’s student in AI if not a PhD.

What do readers think? Should a prize be established for the best programs that can do this? It seems like a useful application of AI and also something where it is easy to test and score programs (sum of minutes of content improperly muted and minutes of commercials improperly not muted, for example). Programmers around the world could compete for honors/money.

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