Obama saved by the fighter jet that he canceled

In mid-2009, Barack Obama persuaded the U.S. Senate to kill funding for the F-22 Raptor fighter jet, a $65 billion program that will yield 187 planes (nearly $400 million per airplane).

Last Thursday, however, the scorned F-22 came to President Obama’s rescue. Mr. Obama had left his desk in Washington, D.C. to attend a birthday party and some fundraising events in Chicago (see this Bush-era post for how it would be incredible to see a U.S. president stay at his desk and work!). This involved the taxpayers shelling out for a few C-5 cargo planes to fly out to Chicago filled with massive Marine One helicopters and armoured SUVs. Obama himself followed in a private Boeing 747 (estimated hourly cost was $56,800 in 2006). To ensure Mr. Obama’s security, the FAA was instructed to close off approximately 3000 square miles of airspace, thus shutting down flight schools and people attempting to use their airplanes for personal and business transportation.

Apparently oblivious to this temporary flight restriction, a “small biplane” wandered within 30 nautical miles of Obama. The unarmed $30,000 airplane, with a maximum speed of perhaps 100 knots. was met by two supersonic F-22 Raptors (total cost $800 million plus perhaps $50,000 per hour in operating costs (source)). “There was no threat to the president, the military said.”

In the past, planes such as this were met by a single $27 million F-16 or a $14 million Blackhawk helicopter, but apparently the Air Force has decided that the supersonic F-16 is no longer up to the task.

More: AirForceTimes.

[Note that the F-22 is not the most expensive airplane to run; the C-5s that haul the presidential helicopters around supposedly have the highest operating costs of any Air Force weapon (source).]

[The two Democratic fundraisers that Obama attended brought in roughly $3.5 million (source). So it would have been far cheaper for taxpayers if Obama had stayed in Washington and the U.S. Treasury had written a $3.5 million check to the Democratic Party.]

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States should raise minimum wages?

Economists say that minimum wage laws are bad. They prevent young people from getting job experience. A minimum wage may prevent the job market from clearing in that a low-skilled worker might not be able to find a willing employer. Minimum wages help older workers and union workers by preventing new entrants to the workforce from undercutting them, but weaken the overall economy. Despite the fact that classical economics is against the idea of a minimum wage, the federal government has one and many states have their own minimum wages that are higher than the federal government’s nationwide minimum wage (chart).

It isn’t obvious why individual states have minimum wage laws. This posting explores the idea that a state might be better off with a moderately high minimum wage.

Consider a typical state with a mostly unionized workforce. By contract the state must pay $200,000 per year (including health care and pension obligation) to the average schoolteacher and $300,000 per year (including health care and pension obligation) to the average police officer. For every 1000 residents, the state must hire a fixed number of teachers and police officers, whose salaries, benefits, and pensions will be paid by taxing those 1000 residents. The richer the residents, the easier it will be to raise sufficient tax revenues to meet the union contract requirements. Poor residents, by contrast, may require the hiring of additional teachers and police officers. The poor are more likely to be involved in crime and their children are more likely to require special education.

Some states have such deluxe ways of running the government that they might need taxpayers who earn a minimum of $25 or $30 per hour in order to come out ahead. Why not establish a minimum wage, therefore, of $20 per hour? Anyone whose skills aren’t valuable enough to justify at least that level of wage will be forced to migrate to another state. Industries that can’t pay at least $20/hour will be forced to move as well and good riddance to them. Why have workers at $20/hour when the state needs workers at $25 or $30/hour to meet its past and future pension obligations? The state might want to encourage some younger workers to remain in the state to build skills and eventually command a $25-30/hour wage. Perhaps the minimum wage law could be tailored to worker age, so that it was legal for a 25-year-old to earn $20/hour but if he or she had not advanced to $30/hour by age 40, he or she would be forced to emigrate.

Why aren’t we seeing states with budget difficulties raising minimum wages?

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Our small business and the era of Yet Bigger Government

“Small businesses are normally a major source of jobs but they have been particularly reluctant to hire lately because of weak sales and uncertainty about the pace of the recovery.” says this Reuters article, which is typical of a lot of reports on the U.S.’s anemic labor market. I happen to be involved in a small business, a Massachusetts flight school with about 30 aircraft, including two helicopters.

Let’s start with investment and bank lending. We have not invested in new aircraft or other capital equipment recently. Is it because the bailed-out banks won’t lend us money? I don’t think so. Most of our aircraft are between 2 and 11 years old. Airplanes can be operated safely and economically for at least 30 years. As evidenced by all of the 50- and 75-year-old planes that came to the Oshkosh, Wisconsin fly-in last month, even a 30-year-old plane may have quite a bit of life left. We will buy new engines and overhaul kits for our machines, but pay for those out of revenues. If we could not pay for the overhauls out of revenues it would mean that we were operating at a loss and that it would be smarter simply to close the doors. Our capacity is ample for the current customer demand. In fact, even if every other flight school in the Boston area were to shut down, our school’s existing fleet of aircraft is large enough to satisfy the total regional demand. Not everyone would be flying at 9:00 am on a prime summer weekend, of course, but everyone would be able to fly as many hours per week as desired.

Federal and state governments offer a lot of subsidies and incentives for businesses, or so we’re told, but we never have more than one admin person working the front desk at any given time. We don’t have qualified staff ready to go looking for government programs to tap into. We know how to serve private customers, but not how to get money from the government. This puts us at a disadvantage compared to big companies that can afford to spread the cost of a full-time “getting money from the government” employee.

A government that consumes a larger percentage of the GDP is a government that makes lobbying more fruitful. In a lobbying war, however, the small will inevitably lose out to bigger enterprises. For example, the Boston Red Sox, along with other professional sports teams, lobbied Congress and the FAA for years trying to get them to forbid banner-towing airplanes flying over stadiums during games. They did this in hopes of preventing anyone from advertising to fans other than themselves, thus enhancing their billions of dollars in revenue. The FAA refused to hand over airspace to private owners, but Congress forced them to do so after 9/11, arguing that a 3 nautical mile ban around stadiums was necessary for security. Because this taking of public property was done under the guise of security, it was sufficient to ban only banner towers; all aircraft were banned except for those owned or operated on behalf of the sports team. The security value of the ban is negligible. A terrorist in a jet would fly through the 3 n.m. ring in about 1 minute. There would be no time to evacuate the stadium. It isn’t even clear that there are procedures in place for FAA controllers to inform stadium owners that someone has violated this security zone and therefore there would be notification to fans that it was time to duck.

What’s the result of the government having grown a bit larger to serve the needs of the Boston Red Sox? Some additional air traffic controllers are required because their work has expanded from just separating aircraft from each other to also making sure that aircraft don’t impinge upon the new privately owned airspace. So all taxpayers become slightly poorer. How about the effect on small business? The banner towing guys have suffered a huge loss in business. Our flight school suffers a substantial loss in business because we can’t fly helicopter tours during games. We wouldn’t want to fly over Fenway Park, especially, but the 3 nautical mile zone covers nearly all of downtown Boston. We also need to pay staff to check the Red Sox schedule every time a customer calls wanting to schedule a tour. We’ve had tours where we ended up having to turn back to the airport because the Red Sox schedule had changed due to a rained-out game earlier in the week and games were added that did not appear on a schedule printed earlier.

You might think that we’d be doing well because the government has decided to put more money into education. The new funds, however, generally can only be used at degree-granting institutions. Once enrolled in a “bachelor’s of aviation” program, the spigots open up for the student’s tuition, housing, and food. This is great for established large colleges and universities because, even though they may charge 50% higher prices than our school, it works out to be cheaper for the student. Our prices are lower and our instructors are more experienced, which gives us a competitive advantage when dealing with privately-funded students. In a world where most of the new students are government-funded, however, we are inevitably out-competed by the big schools.

The bigger the government gets, the worse our small business does both in absolute terms and in terms of our competitive position. Anyone else out there running a small company (other than one set up specifically to contract with governments) with a different story to tell?

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Best place to find a freelance illustrator/graphic designer?

Folks: I’d like to hire a freelance illustrator/graphic designer for a variety of personal projects, e.g., a party invitation composited out of some photos. What’s a good marketplace to find someone? From 10 years ago, I remember elance.com being useful. A Google search brings up guru.com as well.

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What to do in San Juan, Puerto Rico next week?

Folks:

I need to be in San Juan, Puerto Rico on Wednesday, August 11 (next week) for business. I’m staying in the Caribe Hilton. I could fly in mid-day on August 10th and depart late on August 12th and/or fly in a day early on August 9th. What would be some fun things to do in San Juan? Given that I will be sitting on a plane for at least four hours in each direction, I don’t want to do any activities that involve significant travel time.

If any readers would like to meet up at the Hilton, I would be delighted to talk over coffee on the afternoon of the 10th or the morning of the 12th (email philg@mit.edu).

Thanks in advance for any suggestions.

[Note that I’ve been to San Juan back in 2002 and spent a couple of days wandering around Old San Juan. I’ve also been to the Arecibo telescope and the rain forest.]

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Popularity of television and NASCAR shows that Americans aren’t worried about the economy?

I was talking with a guy at Oshkosh who owns a NASCAR team. I asked if the popularity of television in general and NASCAR in particular is evidence that Americans aren’t too worried about the economy. Consider a guy who chooses to spend a Sunday afternoon watching cars drive around in circles. He could have signed up for a class or been reading a book that would help him earn a new credential. Instead, he was sitting on a sofa with his brain on “hold”. This doesn’t look like a picture of a person who is concerned that he won’t have a job next year. Thoughts?

What happens in China? Do working-age adults spend a lot of time watching television? Following sports on television?

[The team owner’s response was to look at me as though I were slightly retarded to question why tens of millions of Americans spend time being NASCAR fans.]

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Who likes typing on the Droid X?

I played around recently with the Droid X phone. It seemed like a great device, but I can’t get used to the on-screen keyboard. I find it unnerving to watch characters pop up as I type. I greatly prefer the physical keyboard of a Blackberry or my now-ancient Android G1 phone. Anyone having good luck with the Droid X care to explain the secret of typing on the device? Are there rumors of a similar phone with a slide-out keyboard?

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Oshkosh Wrap-Up

Oshkosh has the following segments:

  • the general carnival atmosphere the results from bringing together hundreds of thousands of people
  • gearheads and engineers showing off new technology that they claim will revolutionize some aspect of aviation
  • certified airplane companies who have hired engineers and have worked through or are working through the FAA bureaucracy in an attempt to put all of the pieces together legally before running out of money
  • light sport airplane companies (nearly 100?) that have collectively sold about 1750 two-seat airplanes and that hope to sell a lot more by promising consumers simplicity and economy
  • displays of amazing pilot technique by aerobatic competitors and military pilots plus families who come in primarily to see the daily airshow
  • individuals who fly ordinary airplanes to Wisconsin every year to socialize with others who share their love of aviation
  • individuals who have restored antique airplanes
  • individuals who have built, and sometimes designed, their own aircraft

In many ways, my favorite groups were the last two: antique airplanes and homebuilt. These are folks whose interest in aviation is closest in spirit to ancient human dreams: escaping the Earth and getting a bird’s eye view. The home-builders are also the most inclusive. My favorite was a 249 lb. all-metal low-wing airplane called the “Hummel” (site). It qualifies as an ultralight and requires no license to fly. With 37 HP it can lift a 200 lb. pilot, full fuel (5 gallons), and still be 70 lbs. under gross weight. With a 45 mph approach speed and hardly any instruments, there is no need for a 7000′ runway, control tower, and instrument landing system. Given the objectives of the pilots of the Hummel (short, local, daytime flights in excellent weather), they can probably be safe after just 10 or 20 hours of training.

Although the range of homebuilders includes some who are superb craftsmen, some who have done significant engineering work, and some who are expert and highly experienced pilots, the message is “anyone can do this”. And indeed there are quick-build kits, factories who provide builder assistance, and airplane designs that are extremely slow and forgiving.

As far as the most significant innovation on display, my vote goes to envelope protection for light airplanes. Introduced on the Airbus A320 in 1988, envelope protection discourages or prevents pilots from stalling or overspeeding an airplane. Stalls often lead to spins and are a common source of low altitude maneuvering accidents, e.g., by pilots preparing to land. Envelope protection is now available in the Avidyne autopilot, an easy retrofit to the popular Cirrus four-seater, and in new airplanes with the Garmin G1000 panel (“Garmin ESP”). This technology would have saved the passengers of Colgan 3407 (previous post).

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Cooperation Amidst Decline

One inspiring thing at Oshkosh was the spirit of cooperation among light aircraft manufacturers amid a declining market. Despite rapid population growth and growth in the number of airline jobs, the number of pilots in the U.S. has declined roughly 25 percent since 1980 (source; FAA statistics show 692,000 active pilots in 1990 and 594,000 today). The U.S. population has grown from 226 million to 310 million while the number of Americans capable of operating an aircraft has fallen.

As demonstrated by the numerous 75-year-old and 50-year-old airplanes flying at Oshkosh, there is no need for any company to produce new light airplanes. The U.S. has so many two- and four-seat airplanes parked in obscure corners of sleepy airports that we could supply the growing Indian and Chinese markets with airworthy planes given up by U.S. pilots grown too old to hold a medical certificate. The most significant innovations in new airplanes, e.g., glass panel avionics, are easily retrofitted to older planes.

In a bleak environment where sales is usually a zero-sum game (i.e., one company’s sale comes at the expense of another company’s), one might expect to find a lot of bad-mouthing of competitors and fervent prayers that weak manufacturers would simply disappear. Instead one finds the opposite: sincere hopes that everyone in the industry can succeed and cooperative attempts to get Americans to pursue flying as a passion or a business tool.

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