Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

In December 2007 I posted my prediction that Barack Obama would win the 2008 election and then we’d all be depressed a year later. The last paragraph:

In December 2009 we will suffer a massive nationwide psychological depression. People assume that all of their problems can be blamed on George W. Bush personally. When the hated King Bush II has been back to Texas for a year and the beloved Obama has been in office for a year, people will look around for a quick status check. They will still be stuck in horrific traffic. They will still be paying insane prices for crummy housing in bleak, lonely communities. Their children will be getting a terrible education at the local public school, perhaps developing to about 15 percent of their potential. If in a hip urban area, criminals will still be smashing their car windows and taking their GPS. They will realize that virtually none of the things that are unpleasant about their life have anything to do with the federal government, except for the war in Iraq, which a quick check of the headlines will reveal that we are still losing.

Now that Barack Obama is preparing to give his first State of the Union speech, I’m wondering if this prediction was accurate. Has Iraq turned into a stable democracy, contrary to my prediction? If so, is the replacement of Iraq by an expensive losing war in Afghanistan equally depressing?

I certainly did not predict the big stock market collapse of 2008 (depressing) and the subsequent transfer of most of America’s remaining wealth to Wall Street (extremely depressing to everyone outside of Manhattan). So we’d have to subtract out any depression caused by the financial collapse and wealth transfer from depression caused by Congress and Obama’s inability to improve American lives in the ways expected by enthusiastic voters.

So… was the prediction basically accurate or not? (I’m still smarting from my inaccurate prediction that Democrat Martha Coakley would win the Massachusetts Senate election.)

[Separately, the peasants will not be able to fly their little airplanes while the King addresses his subjects. The FAA has issued a temporary flight restriction for 8-11 pm on the night of the speech, forbidding people from taking off or landing at the little airports near Washington, D.C. Got a $50 million Gulfstream G-550 parked at Dulles? There’s an exception that will let you take off for Davos or Aspen.

It could be worse. If you’re a flight school in northwest Washington State, this Olympics TFR imposes a two-month moratorium on flight training. So you get to relax for two months with no revenue. As with other security-based TFRs, the government is not going to compensate the flight schools or airplane owners for loss of revenue and loss of use.]

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About a week ago, I swung down to Manhattan to see the Bauhaus show at the MoMA before it closes (tomorrow, January 25, is the last day!). On a Friday afternoon, even before the 4 pm “free entry courtesy of Target” crowd rushed in, the place was almost as packed as the sidewalks in Times Square. Tickets for the Tim Burton show had all been given away by mid-morning, so my $20 ticket did not get me into that (though the people who showed up shortly after 4 pm and paid $0 got timed tickets). There were more people standing in front of most paintings in the museum than had been on the Friday afternoon flight from Boston to LaGuardia (150,000 lb. jet). The Monet Water Lilies were gathered together in a room for contemplation. About 200 art lovers were chatting and cell phoning in the room, giving it a high school basketball game ambiance. Here’s a video that I made with a first-generation Android phone: youtube.

The Bauhaus show had some lovely colorful stuff. It was interesting to see how craft-y a lot of the stuff was. In particular, they did a lot of wall hangings that were custom-designed and then handwoven. It would be nice if there were a consumer-priced Web service that would allow you to design a tapestry and then have a computer-controlled loom weave it.

The adjacent Gabriel Orozco show features a stunning slimmed-down Citroen (photos; my Android video).

MoMA is so crowded that it is unclear that the art can be viewed as intended. A rock show is designed to be experienced by 10,000 people and, in fact, probably would not work without the people present. A movie is designed for 500 people to see simultaneously and sized accordingly. Most of the stuff in MoMA was intended to be quietly contemplated in a rich person’s house. Are Monet’s Water Lilies still the same work when consumed in a noisier environment than Grand Central Station? As the population of the planet expands, perhaps there is a need for artists to create work that improves when it shares a room with hundreds of people chattering away on mobile phones.

After the MoMA, my hosts took me to dinner at Anthos, a nearby Greek restaurant. Some of the food was excellent, but the $100/person price tag (we had one bottle of wine, almost the cheapest on the list, and split a single dessert) was more memorable than the meal. My local friends did not blink at the prices, though neither of them is TARP-funded.

At breakfast the next morning, a 6-year-old boy at the table demanded that his father cut up the pancakes for him. I expressed shock that a 6-year-old kid couldn’t cut his own pancake. Even a 2-month-old puppy could manage to eat a pancake unassisted. My contribution to the meal was an entire package of bacon, baked for 10 minutes at 400 degrees just as suggested on the back of the label. The young boy tasted one strip and, without malice, stated simply that “this is the worst bacon that I’ve had in my entire life.”

Back at LaGuardia, there were literally more TSA agents than passengers in the terminal. Our flight to Boston had 10 seats occupied on a plane that holds 76. The Obama Economic Miracle has yet to reach the airlines…

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I would appreciated comments on a draft of a book review of The Dirty Dozen, about the Supreme Court cases that have made our modern federal government possible.

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I asked friends to explain their rationale for voting before and after the recent Massachusetts election that sent Republican Scott Brown to fill a U.S. Senate seat that had been held by Democrats since 1954. Opinions of Coakley ranged from “mediocre party hack” to “evil opponent of citizens’ rights to, for example, videotape the police making arrests.” Nonetheless, all voted for Coakley with the expectation that she would hold the Senate seat until her death or retirement. The main reason cited was that they wanted her to be in the Senate to vote for the latest $1 trillion health care spending bill. I.e., they were electing her for decades, regardless of her fitness for the job, because they thought that her one vote on one bill would be so important.

I pointed out that the health care bill wouldn’t change anything in Massachusetts. We already have a similar state law that requires residents to purchase health insurance and, if they can’t afford it, sticks taxpayers with the bill (this increased demand for health insurance has resulted in insurers raising premiums to the highest prices in the U.S., and probably the world). “But people in other states won’t have guaranteed insurance,” was the response. I pointed out that the federal bill would still leave tens of millions uninsured (earlier post). “It will be a lot better than what they have now.”

I then reminded the Coakley voter that Massachusetts gets back only 82 cents of every federal tax dollar (source). Did he or she really want to pay for health insurance for some guy in Alabama ($1.66 back for every dollar put in)? The answer was a resounding “Yes!” If we wanted to be altruistic, was it truly better to buy gold-plated medical care for people in other states than to help out folks in Haiti who have nothing? The answer was that we can easily afford to do both.

Separately, a look at the election results map revealed that there was a fairly strong correlation between being bled by the government and voting for the Republican and being fattened by the government and voting for the Democrat. Economic basketcase towns such as Springfield, where the primary sources of income are Welfare or government jobs, were solidly for Coakley. Inner city districts where people live in public housing (perhaps next door to Barack Obama’s Aunt Zeituni) voted for additional government expansion; suburban districts where people work long hours at private employers and pay heavy taxes to support 35-hour/week government workers voted for Brown. What can the Democrats learn from this? If they can somehow ensure that 51 percent of voters are collecting Welfare, working for the government, or somehow else being net beneficiaries of government spending, they should be able to control the U.S. indefinitely.

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… to prevent folks practicing Orthodox Jewcraft from being booted off the plane: story. The crew thought the weird-looking teenager’s Tefillin were bombs and made a precautionary landing so that the plane would blow up in Philadelphia rather than Louisville. Counting up the extra takeoff, landing, fuel, aircraft time, crew time, passenger delays, value of passenger time, cost of paying law enforcement officials to question passengers, etc., this probably took $25,000 out of the U.S. economy.

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After dropping off our first round of supplies for a 6000-person tent city being set up by an American church group led by an upstate NY builder (more), it was time to return to Florida from Provo (MBPV) in the Turks and Caicos. We had to pick up more tents and bring them back! I struggled with filling out an ICAO flight plan form. If you work at an airline, this is done by the superbly trained dispatchers who use powerful custom software. If you fly your own plane, you use various free Web services that fill these out and submit them for you. In Provo, you fill it out on paper and it gets faxed over to the tower. You’re supposed to know all kinds of codes for electronics in the plane and survival gear. I hadn’t looked at one of these for nearly two years. A friendly experienced Pilatus PC-12 pilot was standing next to me and graciously answered my questions one at a time. After about the fourth question, without a hint of malice, he asked “Are you a pilot?”

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Back in August 2009, this blog discussed a new contract for U.S. air traffic controllers, bumping their pay up from a median of $117,000 per year (post). When you read this piece from the Times of London about Spanish air traffic controller pay, it becomes clear why the U.S. union felt that their members are underpaid. For reference, Spain has one of the highest unemployment rates in the world, with 43 percent of young people who are looking for jobs unable to find one (nytimes). Mancur Olson would have predicted that, in a mature country such as Spain, for every young person struggling to get on that first rung of the work ladder there would be a highly paid older worker stepping on the kid’s hands. The Times seems to have found some of those older workers. The unionized controllers in Spain have an “average basic salary” of nearly $300,000 per year, “but most double or triple this amount by working overtime.” The ten highest paid controllers are earning around $1.2 million per year, handling flights carrying Spanish citizens who earn an average of $25,500 per year.

[How busy are the Spanish controllers? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World’s_busiest_airports_by_passenger_traffic shows that the Madrid airport is one of the world’s 30 busiest, handling about half as many passengers as Atlanta and 50 percent more than Minneapolis or Charlotte. Spain has 2,300 controllers, according to the Times article, one for every 17,400 residents. The U.S. has 26,000 according to the BLS, one for every 11,540 residents. So in theory the Spanish controllers are working harder, serving more people. I could not find any statistics for the total number of flights by country, but I suspect that the U.S. has many more flights per capita. The U.S. has larger distances to cover and fewer good alternatives for ground transportation. The U.S. has a vibrant general aviation sector, including thousands of training aircraft that do practice instrument approaches and landings all day every day. The U.S. needs air freight to deliver mail and packages overnight; Spain is smaller than Texas. The general aviation component is what makes U.S. controllers so busy. Spain has 153 airports (source); the U.S. has more than 15,000. I did find this report from the Spanish airport authority. The Barcelona airport, for example, which is Spain’s 2nd busiest, handled an average of 1000 operations per day in 2007. Teterboro, NJ, with no commercial flights, handles 500 per day, even after the Collapse of 2008. The Palo Alto, CA airport, with a 2400′ runway (suitable for 4-seat Cessnas and Pipers; a jet airport would typically have 7,000′ or more), also handles 500 operations per day. Reed-Hillview, a training airport east of the main San Jose, CA airport, handles 630 operations per day. In fact, it looks as though there are more takeoffs and landings in the San Francisco Bay Area than in all of Spain.]

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A friend who owns what a passenger might call a “real airplane” (two jet engines instead of one propeller) has volunteered his airplane for a Haitian relief flight. We’ll be picking up 50 lb. tents in West Palm Beach (KPBI) and flying them to Providenciales (MBPV) in the Turks and Caicos. From there the tents will be ferried over to a dirt strip in Haiti in a King Air turboprop. We’ll make at least a couple of round-trips and then return home to Boston.

To give you some idea of the hardships that we will be enduring when not in our air-conditioned pressurized airplane…

• the FBO in Provo (they helped me a lot back in 2002 when I wrote “flying the Caribbean”)
• photo gallery with scenes of life in Provo outside of the airport

Departing in about 9 hours and should be back by Friday at the latest.

Separately, I had dinner this evening with a friend who is an emergency room doctor. We were talking about the Haitian tragedy and she said “I might have volunteered to go over there if I were single and childless, but why would I take that kind of risk now that I have children?”

And finally… I’ve been providing some advice and assistance to a couple of non-profit organizations that work in Haiti. One is Partners in Health. They could really use the loan of a Cessna Caravan or similar airplane to ferry supplies between the main international airport and a dirt strip adjacent to their main hospital in the countryside. Contact me if you have the Caravan or the money to lease one and I’ll put you in touch with my friend at Partners in Health (he is a fully trained medical doctor who is not on their Form 990‘s list of five highest paid employees, which means he is earning less than $67,000 per year).

[Update: I made a short video during our tent run. A few days after we got back, the New York Times ran a story saying that “Tents, tents, tents” were what was needed in Haiti. I’ve volunteered to go back and fly helicopters for a Midwestern hospital-based group, but I’m not sure that my offer will be accepted.]

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It is snowing here in Massachusetts, with temperatures close to freezing. Perfect weather for driving a pavement-melting SUV to the polls and not very good for a Prius or Smart Car. If the only people who can get out and vote are those who are comfortable getting 10 mpg, this may favor the Republican candidacy of Scott Brown. There are, of course, plenty of Democrats who are destroying the earth with their Volvo SUVs, but I would say that monster SUV owners are more likely than the average Massachusetts voter to reject the idea that an ever larger government will make the U.S. a better place to live and work. This is not good for Martha Coakley.

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An interesting piece by John Bogle, founder of Vanguard, on corporate governance. For those too busy to read the Wall Street Journal, I can summarize it as “shareholders in public companies won’t be happy unless the managers give them a share of the profits.”

[It would be nice if modesty prevented me from pointing out that my economic recovery plan, from November 2008, included some of the same ideas.]

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