Philip Greenspun’s Weblog

In this December 12, 2007 posting, I predicted that Barack Obama would win the Election 2008 popular vote by 5 percent over “whoever is unfortunate enough to win the Republican nomination”.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/ shows that Barack Obama actually prevailed by 7 percent.

[Reference: In 2004, Bush won 50.7 percent to Kerry’s 48.3 (source). In 2000, Bush won 47.9 percent to Gore’s 48.4 percent (i.e., Bush would have lost if not for our electoral college system). In 1992, Clinton won 43 percent of the popular vote to King Bush I’s 37 percent. Clinton’s reelection in 1996 was 49/41.]

Full post, including comments

I voted today in Cambridge. There was a choice among presidential candidates. You could vote for several competitors to John Kerry’s reelection bid for the U.S. Senate. All of the other candidates, ranging from Representative to the U.S. Congress down to dog catcher, were incumbent Democrats running unopposed. Cantabrigians had a fourth ballot question not available to most Massachusetts: “Shall the State Representative from this district be instructed to vote in favor of a nonbinding resolution calling on the federal government to support the right of all people, including non-Jewish Palestinian citizens of Israel, to live free from laws that give more rights to people of one religion than another.”

Asked about the experience later, I responded “You couldn’t vote against most of the Democrats, but you could vote against Israel.”

Full post, including comments

… running political campaigns. This New York Times article implies that presidential candidates have collectively raised and spent over $2 billion for Election 2008. That will be an impressive contribution to our GDP statistic, but wouldn’t the country have been better off in the long run if we had invested the $2 billion in some new factories or clean energy powerplants?

Presumably the Chinese are not spending $2 billion deciding who will be their next dictator. Most Arab countries need not spend any money deciding who will be the next ruler, as the position is hereditary. The French have per-candidate spending limits of about 38 million euros (source), i.e., enough to buy six Diet Cokes at Charles de Gaulle airport.

When we factor in lost wages and productivity due to workers reading about the election instead of working, we may have to suspend elections for the next 10 years in order to avoid falling too far behind other nations (U.S. Congressional elections are especially wasteful as the incumbents are virtually untouchable).

Full post, including comments

Massachusetts has a ballot question this election on whether or not to eliminate the state income tax. Opponents of the bill forecast death and destruction. Absent from the debate is the fact that our neighbors in New Hampshire seem to get adequate government services despite not having an income tax on wages (New Hampshire does tax interest and dividends) nor a sales tax.

Why do we need an income tax here when New Hampshire apparently doesn’t?

Let’s look at some recent news items…

• Massachusetts taxpayers are paying the salary of Dianne Wilkerson (wikipedia), whose track record during 15 years as a state senator includes (1) failing to file or pay federal income taxes, (2) being fined for ethics violations, (3) being fined for campaign finance violations, (4) being prosecuted for perjury, and (5) being videotaped taking bribes from the FBI.
• Massachusetts taxpayers are paying the salary of Salvatore F. DiMasi, speaker of the House, who is currently spending most of his time and effort stonewalling a conflict-of-interest investigation.
• Massachusetts taxpayers have been paying since 2003 to house Barack Obama’s Aunt Zeituni, an illegal immigrant from Kenya (Boston Herald story).

Vote No on Question 1, stay in Massachusetts, and ask your boss for a raise; our state government will be needing those income tax dollars…

[Facts and figures: The average American pays $4,283 per year in state and local taxes. The average Massachusetts resident pays $5,377. The average New Hampshire resident pays $3,642. Source: http://www.taxfoundation.org. The U.S. Census Bureau presents some data showing state taxes only for 2005. Interestingly, Massachusetts collects more per resident than New York, though perhaps that is only because New York funds more things at a local level.]

[Idea: Any tax that grows automatically with property values or incomes probably sets up a bad dynamic between taxpayer and government. The cost of delivering a product or service should normally be set by standard microeconomic supply and demand curves. The government runs schools, prisons, police and fire departments. If a Google or Microsoft is founded in the state and starts paying a lot of computer programmers higher salaries, should that drive up the cost of running the prisons? If there is a real estate bubble and all of the houses, at least on paper, are now worth 3X their former value, does that drive up the cost of running the local school? We have to assume that any revenue that gets into the hands of state bureaucrats will get spent (Alaska being the only current example of a state that returns some of its revenues to citizens). Why set up a system where there is no way for citizens to do better without fattening the state bureaucracy as well?]

Full post, including comments

A Federal judge crushed New York City’s plan to force existing taxi operators to use higher efficiency vehicles (nytimes article). The city’s politicians seem helpless in the face of this decision, which says that only the Feds can regulate emissions or fuel consumption.

Is the city truly impotent? It is the city alone that decides how and to whom to issue taxicab medallions. The number has been fixed for decades while taxi fares have been allowed to rise, resulting in a trading value for the medallions of $600,000 (a return on this investment must be recovered from the hapless customers).

If the city wants to see hybrid or electric taxis on its roads, why doesn’t it issue new taxi medallions to drivers who promise, in exchange, to use high-efficiency vehicles? The fare on these new, presumably smaller, taxis would be set at 75 percent of the fare on the standard gas guzzling taxis. Consumers could choose the spacious gas guzzlers at a higher fare structure or a more cramped ride in a Prius at a lower fare. As most people are cost-conscious, eventually most of the taxi miles driven would be in Prius-style vehicles rather than the current V8 guzzlers.

How could the operator of a Prius survive on 25 percent less revenue per mile than the current operators? The Prius operator wouldn’t have to pay $600,000 for a medallion from an existing owner, but rather perhaps just a $1,000 per year inspection fee. The Prius operator would be paying less for fuel.

Full post, including comments

Here’s a Thanksgiving recipe from the Treasury Department:

Stuffed Turkey

• Large turkey
• Seven hundred-billion-dollar bills, crumpled

Place the crumpled bills inside the turkey. Roast until all that remains is a pile of ashes. Enjoy!

Source: October 13, 2008 New Yorker magazine cartoon by Roz Chast (not available on the Web in a usable resolution).

Full post, including comments

I decided that it was time to cut a few branches and trees here at my suburban tick farm. When I lived in an apartment, I spent a lot of time each night deciding whether to go to a concert, a lecture, or a museum. I no longer have to spend time making those decisions because I go to Home Depot every night. I left Alex in the car and went in to find the store nearly empty of customers, leaving plenty of helpful clerks. I explained my problem to one and said that I wanted to buy a handsaw. “We only have one,” she said. “You probably want a chainsaw.” I admitted that I wasn’t man enough to operate a chainsaw. “We have electric ones,” she offered. I responded that there weren’t any power outlets on the trees that I intended to assault. “How about this rechargeable Ryobi?” It was only $60, but it didn’t come with the 18V battery or charger, so I ended up having to buy a $300 Ryobi starter kit with some other tools.

At checkout, I produced my “I am stupid enough to pay $400 per year” card. The cashier was instructed to call American Express for authorization, the first time that has ever happened to me with this platinum card that I have held for about 8 years.

From Home Depot, I proceeded to the adjacent Natick Mall. Eager developers relatively recently finished some condos that are attached to the Mall via an indoor walkway. There are huge “condos for sale” signs all over them. The Mall was nearly deserted. I went to Crate and Barrel in order to get a sample of a some flatware to see if it would meet female approval (she had already picked this out from their Web site). It had been so long since they’d sold flatware that they couldn’t figure out how to open the locked cabinet.

Stores were glossy, prices were high, and what few people were there milled about without buying anything. It was reminiscent of Buenos Aires after Argentina’s currency collapse.

[Chain saw update: The rechargeable chainsaw worked out quite well for cutting down a tree approximately three inches in diameter. It is quiet enough that you don’t have to wear earplugs.]

Full post, including comments

Newspapers continue to dwell on the issue of race. Barack Obama, who identifies himself as black, managed to win the nomination of a party that represents approximately half of the American people. Nonetheless, journalists occupy column-inches with the theory that the other half of the American people are prejudiced against blacks.

Let’s try a thought-experiment.

Case 1: We ask an average American “Could a black man handle a demanding job?” My prediction is that the answer would be “It depends; I would have to meet the guy.”

Case 2: We ask an average American “Could a 72-year-old handle a demanding job?” Possible answers would include “72? Can the guy still drive himself? Can he get up and down the halls of his assisted living complex without using a walker? Are you nuts? Wouldn’t he have retired years ago?”

Companies try to avoid hiring anyone over 50. Why do we believe that the number of Americans who are prejudiced against blacks is anywhere near the number who are prejudiced against hiring workers born in 1936?

Full post, including comments

Barack Obama’s campaign has been damaged to some extent by quotes from his days as a community organizer. He sounded like a socialist back then. Would he act on these deeply held personal beliefs once he becomes president? If so, how would American business be able to grow as more tax dollars and resources were diverted to helping the poor, underprivileged, elderly, and unemployable?

Does it make sense to model the behavior of politicians as acting on deeply held personal beliefs? What if we look at them as responding to interest groups and individuals according to the power and wealth of those groups and individuals? The rewards to being responsive can be significant. Ronald Reagan significantly assisted Japanese exporters during his presidency and, upon leaving office, was rewarded with a $2 million payment for a nine-day speaking tour of Japan. Bill Clinton came to office as an upper middle class guy. He collected more than $100 million in personal wealth from his new chums upon leaving the Presidency. Suppose that Barack Obama arrives in the White House and reminds himself that he still has about 40 years to live, only 8 of which will be spent as President. Those 32 post-presidential years could be spent being celebrated by welfare recipients or as the guest of Fortune 500 CEOs. Those 32 post-presidential years could be spent living on a government pension or as billionaire.

What evidence is there that Obama is committed to any group or set of policies other than increased power and wealth for himself? He was elected to the Illinois State Senate in 1996. Had he been passionate about his constituents and their interests, he might have stayed in that job for 20 years. Instead he ran for U.S. Congress after just four years. He was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004. He probably hadn’t found the restrooms in all of the office buildings by the time he decided to abandon his constituents and run for President.

John McCain, by contrast, is far more likely to attempt to damage the interests of the rich and powerful. He is already one of America’s wealthiest men. If he wants a private jet ride or an 11th house for occasional weekend use, he can write a check on his wife’s bank account. By the time he would leave office, McCain would be one of America’s oldest men. His statistical life expectancy would be 7 years. He would be unlikely to live long enough to appreciate a post-retirement gift from a constituency that he helped while in office.

My prediction that Obama will win stands, though I fear that my 5 percent margin of victory may be understated now that the Republicans have nominated a candidate who is 90 percent dead. My new prediction is that Obama will be the friendliest president ever to the rich and powerful and that Obama will be the richest person ever to have been president.

Full post, including comments

From my friend David, today’s Dilbert strip covers the question of how an American CEO can get out of the office with his $50 million “pay package”.

Full post, including comments