http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/01/news/fortune500/buffett_talks/index.htm?cnn=yes summarizes Warren Buffett and Charles Munger’s address to shareholders. My favorite line:
Some people seem to think there’s no trouble [with Ford and GM] just because it hasn’t happened yet. If you jump out the window at the 42nd floor and you’re still doing fine as you pass the 27th floor, that doesn’t mean you don’t have a serious problem.
The guys have it all, wit and a good track record. I take two different comments to heart:
A. You’ll get a chance to do something extremely intelligent with your money in the next few years. But right now there doesn’t seem to be a clear enough direction to conclude anything dramatic.”
B. The enemy of investment is activity…. I know the American investor will not be better off if volume doubles on the NYSE, and I know the NYSE will be trying to figure out how to do that if it is trying to maximize its own earnings per share.
If I was to look over the oracle should and try an read the crystal ball, I would expect that a privatized nyse may attempt to pump up a false recovery by generating record trading levels. This would have to evaporate before a ‘real’ recovery could take place.
Just my two bits.
Labor unions heads don’t mind the trip off from the 42nd floor. It gives them a chance to renegotiate the medical premium on the way down.
I’m no longer a fan of B-H and WB, but I agree completely with CM’s comment about GM and Ford.
I’ll go further and predict that neither company will exist within two (maybe three) years. The remains will of course still exist, but restructured and integrated either into existing (foreign) manufacturers or spun-off units funded by leveraged-buyout firms.
There is no shortage of crystal-clear writing on the walls for these two car companies.
— Jack Krupansky