I was talking with a guy at Oshkosh who owns a NASCAR team. I asked if the popularity of television in general and NASCAR in particular is evidence that Americans aren’t too worried about the economy. Consider a guy who chooses to spend a Sunday afternoon watching cars drive around in circles. He could have signed up for a class or been reading a book that would help him earn a new credential. Instead, he was sitting on a sofa with his brain on “hold”. This doesn’t look like a picture of a person who is concerned that he won’t have a job next year. Thoughts?
What happens in China? Do working-age adults spend a lot of time watching television? Following sports on television?
[The team owner’s response was to look at me as though I were slightly retarded to question why tens of millions of Americans spend time being NASCAR fans.]
You’ve made the common mistake of classifying all Chinese as similar to those very impressive, and extremely industrious people we’d see in American universities or industry. You really think there aren’t millions upon millions of Chinese who spend a significant portion of their free time in non-productive activities? They don’t watch NASCAR, but ping pong is a huge national sport in China, and I’m thinking that’s about equal in stimulation to watching cars go around a track.
Everyone does what is individually optimal, and if watching NASCAR without concern for income is what creates the most utility, it’s what they’ll do.
I would argue that this is a picture of a person that is very concerned about losing their job next year. You can look at NASCAR as a form of escapism. It is a nice way to turn your brain off, decompress and stop worrying about you job, family etc. Some people read book, some people play games, some people watch movies to escape from the world. It just so happens that some people watch NASCAR. NASCAR really isn’t about the racing anymore. It is closer to the World Wide Wrestling federation. It is all about the personalities, and what happens off of the track. So by watching a race on Sunday and keeping track of the off track antics all week you have a lot to keep your mind occupied.
Having lived in Shanghai for 8 years (until late 2009) I can tell that people over 25 years old play mahjong as a passtime. But people in studying age definitely do useful things with their time on the weekend, such as learning a language, or doing some weekend work. The future is definitely in China, and the Western Culture is becoming less relevant.
I am from Spain and football keeps my country ‘narcotized’ when what people should be doing is learning something useful they like (even something like horticulture, which would be not directly “usable” in a CV as a mean to find a better job).
What TV is doing now to people’s mind reminds me of a novel where the humanity lived under surface producing robots for war that would fight in the globe’s surface (way too contaminated to live there) between the 2 big alliances the world had turn into. TV would keep the people living under the surface informed of the reports that came from the war above.
But there was no war. On the surface of the earth some people were enjoying a fantastic life using the robots that were produced under the surface to harvest and collect food, to build buildings, etc. The guys living up on the surface fantastic lives used TV to keep the infra-surface guys’ minds busy while producing for them.
Say you have a forty-year old friend, say a computer networking guy, who’s been out of work for a year. Lets say (consistent with the horror stories we hear) that he’s sent out 200 resumes and got 2 1st interviews.
What class, or what book, would you suggest he take/read that will get him a new job?
Ed: We’re going to assume that the 40-year-old is already at the top level of Cisco Certification? In that case I would say that he should add Oracle database administration, Microsoft SQL Server administration, and Windows administration certifications to his resume. He can tell an employer “I can do three jobs”.
From your smart guy perspective (140+ IQ), you’re making the very false assumption that the average Joe can study and develop a marketable intellectual skill. Roughly half the population simply can’t do that. Probably over half.
Most people are focused on right now. 200 resumes, what do I do? Easiest thing to do is sit there. The more entertainment you have at hand, the easier it is to sit there. Pete Hamill mentioned that maybe television was to blame for all problems: education, crime, poverty, etc. His point was, what hasn’t gotten lots worse since 1950? More like technology in general. The internet is a great time waster. However, it also lets those who have not know exactly how good everyone else has it–I’m an American, middle class, but I can look at the upper class. Can go into their homes, see their cars, see their gardens. Twenty years ago there was a survey that showed the average minority kid in New York City believed he had a better chance of getting shot than going to college. My high school teachers question to us was, How do you get that kid to pay attention in class? To care about anything? The spread of technology spreads opportunity, and the smarter you are the more the opportunity…the less smart, the less opportunity. It’s always easier to watch car racing and drink some PBR and turn off. And everybody has their breaking point.
Phil-
I think you’ll really like this article from a couple of years ago talking about what a 21st century depression might look like.
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2008/11/16/depression_2009_what_would_it_look_like/?page=full
The upshot is that it might not look like much of anything at all, at least in contrast to the 30s.
Frank: I admit that I’m probably a faster reader/typer than average. However, I don’t think that the average Joe is incapable of learning a skill on a Sunday afternoon. The skill might be more hands-on, e.g., repairing a machine or pruning a hedge, and might require volunteering to assist rather than sitting and studying. Nonetheless, for almost anyone I think there is always something more productive to do than to watch NASCAR!
Rob: Thanks for that Boston Globe article. It is kind of scary: “To be worthy of the name, a depression needs to be more than a few years long” and “it needs to put a lot of people out of work” and “One place that could see an uptick in applications and interest is government work”.
Don’t professional certifications like Cisco’s and Oracle’s cost thousands of dollars (maybe north of $30k)? No way an unemployed person can afford that.
It is a bit unfortunate that an expensive education is often necessary to get attention by recruiters and employers. I get contacted by recruiters frequently, and I wonder how much of it is due to a high GPA from MIT (not easy or cheap to get, unless you get a good financial aid package — which MIT at least has a good track record of doing) vs my actual work experience.
Murali: I will be happy to prepare you for the Oracle DBA certification for $30,000. Please send a check payable to “Philip Greenspun”. Your $30,000 fee will include the fee for the all-day test, an Oracle license that you can use for playing around, some online “e-Learning” and a practice exam, and a 5-day in-person class.
[Other readers: Please do not help this MIT graduate use Google to learn that the Oracle test costs $195, that the Oracle software can be downloaded and used for development/training at no charge, that online access to a prep course and the practice exam is also under $200, and that the 5-day face-to-face class is $3000 (I’m not sure if any of this is required; it might be possible to download the software, do some practice at home, and then walk in to take the $195 exam; http://www.orafaq.com/wiki/Certification_FAQ#What_training_is_required_before_one_can_take_an_exam.3F indicates that two of the certifications require some classes).]
Overall, I’d just say that people respond to anxiety and uncertainty in different ways. I’m more of an escapist type, but my sister is the opposite and will create tasks for herself to keep focused.
Re: certification classes- having been a part of the For-Profit Education marketing industry for years (just left it last year), I can understand people’s aversion to paying a lot for a certification or “degree” that can be found at some of those schools now. They’re expensive, and their value is dubious. Nearly 45% of Fed loans to for-profit schools are defaulted on. Students who are out of options are told they can afford an education. I think the marketing for these places is borderline predatory.
Plus, community colleges, which offer excellent education value to students with limited finances are over-crowded and keep many students on waiting lists for classes with real practical value. An RegNursing certification course at two of the local CC’s here has a 2-year waiting list.
Andy: No question that for-profit education is nearly as bad as not-for-profit education (though for-profit education is not bankrupting the U.S. with pension obligations, so I guess we should be grateful). However, many certificates can be earned via self-study and taking an exam. Others are offered by non-profit organizations, e.g., a one-week lifeguarding class is typically around $300 from a non-profit org. For folks who can’t afford even $200 or $300 there is always the public library. I doubt that there are many people who know every practical thing in every book in even the smallest public library. In fact, speaking of public libraries, I would bet that most systems have the required materials to study for the Microsoft Certified Systems Engineer (MCSE) exams (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Certified_Professional ). Let’s check with the Minuteman Network here in Massachusetts… the local libraries here have 37 MCSE books, including a complete “self-paced training kit” published by Microsoft that includes a CD-ROM. The library also had seven Cisco Certified Network Associate study guides, each one complete with CD-ROM, and 11 books for Oracle certification.
On the other hand, I think this post makes the assumption that educational upgrading makes someone more hirable / helps people get a better paying job.
Past a certain basic point of education, this is not true. There are so many professions in which a Masters / PhD does not pay more than college / sales.
Perhaps the people who go into a TV watching holding pattern, actually fit in more with their peers and/or the rest of the working world. This makes for better (if banal) conversations, group dynamics and working relationships in the majority of work environments.
Perhaps it is an investment in fitting in? Even if it is not expressed as such.
Most people do not actually value learning and upgrading.
That said, people who value upgrading and people who put time into TV and races might not be mutually exclusive. Some people might have already paid their dues.
Phil, I would counter that for-profit IS bankrupting the country on a large scale: it’s just from Fed loans garnered through forged applications, instead of through pensions (at least a pension signifies some sort of work had been completed by the recipient – the app forging is just outright stealing).
I think the problem is the country’s working culture and people’s mentality. In US, most people less worried about losing jobs because unless you are doing a extremely bad job, or there is a corporate layoff, you won’t lose your job. Also, since layoff are less about people’s abilities but more about job positions, having more skills won’t give you better chance of not being included in a layoff. So, there are not much of a reason to try to improve oneself.
In south east Asian countries(including china), Companies are more concern about cost, and with much less of labor protection laws, people are easier to lose one’s job. There is more connection between your performance and your job. So more people will try to improve themselves during their free times.