Given that Bernie Sanders only recently joined the Democratic Party (previously identifying as “socialist,” not a popular brand name for most Americans) and that only about half as much money has been spent to promote Mr. Sanders compared to Ms. Clinton, does the more or less equal vote tally actually represent a defeat for Hillary Clinton?
Let’s also consider momentum. Bernie Sanders was not considered a serious candidate a year ago but now he collects roughly the same number of votes as Hillary Clinton. More voters will now take the time to learn about Sanders and some of those will become his supporters? If he adds those to the roughly 50 percent share he has already… he could actually win?
I think a good amount of Sanders’ showing in Iowa is due to the ethnical makeup there. He should do well in NH, which is the next primary and his back yard. After that, I’m not sure he can keep the momentum in more diverse states.
Republicans have moved on from the Bushes. Time for the Democrats to move on from the Clintons.
non-US betters think sanders has a 1 in 6 chance of beating clinton. https://electionbettingodds.com/
Trump created a momentum, which is primarily about “firing the GOP establishment”. Sanders offers an opportunity to extend this me=omentum, and “fire the US political establishment” as a whole. That’s something US voters crave badly, although they’re still a bit warry about possible consequences.
I would bet on a Trump/Sanders election. And whomever wins, the big losers will be classic politicians. I also believe the US political elite brought this unto itself, by betting that voters could swallow yet another Bush/Clinton election.
Clinton’s central argument about why she deserves to win are:
* she’s a woman (that doesn’t fly well, even with women, and incidentally that’s deeply anti-feminist)
* she’s most qualified to keep the system running exactly as it does today, which is appealing for maybe 2% of American voters.
People don’t vote rationally, they vote for someone who makes them dream. Trump and Sanders deliver, Clinton and republican “also-ran”s don’t.
Several months ago, the refrain, “it’s just time for a woman as president,” was playing in every bit of news coverage about Clinton. Yesterday, in the pre-coverage of the caucus, Andrea Mitchell rolled tape that featured a large, middle-aged, unattractive woman, who said, effectively, “We still need a woman president, but, more importantly, we need the right person.” That one of the leaders of the establishment (and a woman) was willing to “deny the ***** pass” was very, very telling. Clinton is losing support with the media, which she and Bill have CRUCIALLY relied on, to drum up sympathy, all along.
If you allow yourself to think that places like Reddit are bellweathers of 18-25 year old groupthink, then it’s clear that the young adult vote has gone over to Bernie over the past 6-9 months. The challenge before Sanders is to capture some of the black vote, which I’m sure is still solidly behind Clinton. If he can make an impact with that demographic, I think he can pull this off. Full disclosure: I realize that Bernie’s policies are the furthest from my libertarian leanings, but, so help me, I think I’d vote for him.
Superdelegates as of today: Clinton 384, Sanders 39.
He has a lot of ground to recover, and although IA was a good showing for him, he’s still losing ground on delegates…IA count: Clinton 28, Sanders 21.
NH will be strong for him, but NH doesn’t contribute many delegates. After that, he will face much tougher electoral crowds.
I agree with David K. Sanders doesn’t represent me economically, and doesn’t seem to care about a lot of the things I consider most important, socially. But I’d vote for him over anyone else who has bothered to show up.
If the RNC can run a non-crazy, non-Bush person, and put some energy into this thing, they could pull it off. Everyone I know who said they wanted Clinton to run is exhausted with her, which is not a good way to ensue turnout.
Since Clinton’s initial lead in the polls has slipped away, she’ll start resorting to cheating and dirty tricks to maintain her position. The the real race now is to see if the cheating gets exposed before the election is over.