Dockless bike sharing in Dallas

The sidewalks of Dallas are, just as readers warned me, littered with dockless shared bicycles. Ofo, a Chinese company, seems to be the market leader. There are at least four competitors, I think. Each system offers bikes in just one size. If you’re 5′ tall you’ll find that nearly all of the bikes fit well. Over 5′ tall and I would suggest Spin.pm, the only company whose seats can go up high enough to accommodate a 6′ tall rider. (If you’re a knee surgeon, Dallas will be an awesome market in a year or two; riding with the seat too low is a reliable way to burn up one’s knees.)

All rely on smartphone apps and GPS. “They’re popular with the local homeless,” said one local resident. “Fortunately, all of them seem to have iPhones.”

Given the difficulty of convincing consumers to download and subscribe to multiple apps and the economies of scale from having bikes be dense on the ground, a market shake-out seems likely. Unless Dallas is taken over by hobbits, I hope that Spin is one of the survivors!

If this becomes popular, cities are going to need to build a lot more bike racks!

Related:

  • “Asian bike-sharing companies find road is tougher in Europe” (Financial Times, February 28, 2018): “After a spate of thefts and vandalism decimated its fleet of bicycles, Hong Kong-based start-up GoBee said last week it would pull out of French cities just days after quitting Italy.” Apparently today’s Europeans are not as law-abiding and/or trustworthy as today’s Asians!
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Our Welfare State’s Welfare State

Somehow I missed “Why is liberal California the poverty capital of America?” (LA Times, January 14, 2018) until now. My California friends are always heaping scorn on the rest of the nation (“stupid” is the most common adjective applied to non-Californians). California has always been a poster child for technocratic government and collecting the best American minds into top-down bureaucracies to get stuff done. What’s the result, according to the article?

Guess which state has the highest poverty rate in the country? Not Mississippi, New Mexico, or West Virginia, but California, where nearly one out of five residents is poor. That’s according to the Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure, which factors in the cost of housing, food, utilities and clothing, and which includes noncash government assistance as a form of income.

California state and local governments spent nearly $958 billion from 1992 through 2015 on public welfare programs, including cash-assistance payments, vendor payments and “other public welfare,” according to the Census Bureau. California, with 12% of the American population, is home today to about one in three of the nation’s welfare recipients.

Maybe there are some statistical issues here? California has a lot of immigrants and immigrants are usually eligible for welfare:

55% of immigrant families in the state get some kind of means-tested benefits, compared with just 30% of natives.

Also, I wonder if these numbers accurately factor in the market value of the free housing provided to California welfare recipients. If you live rent-free in an apartment in San Francisco or Berkeley that would sell for $1 million on the open market, are you “poor”? Maybe your consumption of resources is unbalanced, but you’re certainly consuming a lot.

But the problem may be solved soon by revised central planning:

Looking to help poor and low-income residents, California lawmakers recently passed a measure raising the minimum wage from $10 an hour to $15 an hour by 2022 — but a higher minimum wage will do nothing for the 60% of Californians who live in poverty and don’t have jobs.

I’m not sure it is interesting that Californians are good at collecting welfare. I do think it is interesting that Californians maintain their “everyone else is stupid” attitude when they put up such high “percentage living in poverty” numbers. If the folks running the government in California for the past decades are smart, committed to equality, and backed by enormous sources of taxpayer-derived cash, why are there any poor people at all in California?

Related:

  • War on poverty hasn;t been given a fair chance?
  • Visit to Berkeley, California (2010): “For roughly 60 years, Berkeley has offered more services to its residents than virtually any other city in the U.S. The schools are expensively funded. Welfare programs have been lavish. People can borrow a full set of tools from the public library. There is a non-profit organization on every block. Yet Berkeley has a poverty rate of 21 percent, higher than the state average of 12 percent (source). The school system tracks student performance by race and ethnicity so that they can reveal to local employers that “white students are doing far better than the state average while black and Latino students are doing worse” (source). Anywhere else in the country one would be considered a vicious racist for claiming that black and Latino high school students are intellectually inferior to white and Asian students, but in Berkeley broadcasting this information marks one as a concerned humanitarian. Sixty years of failure had not daunted any of the East Bayers with whom I spoke; all were in favor of even bigger and more expensive government.”
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Black Panther question: Why couldn’t the queen take over after the king died?

Since I was the last person on Planet Earth to see Black Panther, I’m not going to worry about spoilers.

The king dies. The rest of the movie was about people fighting over succession. Why? There was a perfectly functional queen. Why couldn’t she rule for 20 years? Why was a successor required?

Maybe the answer is “the queen didn’t like to fight all the time.” But Wakanda never sought to fight wars with other countries and had all kinds of advanced defensive technology that other countries couldn’t match. Why would Wakanda have needed a leader more aggressive than TV’s Mr. Rogers?

What about the ending? The wealthiest and most powerful nation on the planet picks a project that a retiring city politician might undertake? How was it different from Derek Zoolander’s School for Kids Who Can’t Read Good and Want to Learn to Do Other Stuff Good Too?

Before you answer “It’s a made-up movie, stupid,” consider that my Facebook friends and the media have assured me that this movie offers important Black History Month lessons.

[I saw the movie at Seattle’s Cinerama, restored at tremendous cost by Paul Allen. The $15/hour minimum wage seems to mean that they can’t afford to hire people to clean up popcorn in between shows. Seattle shows that a fair world is a dirty world? (Separately, the city was packed with panhandlers sleeping on the sidewalks. Are there city workers who ensure that they collect at least $15/hour for the hours during which they are actively asking for money?)]

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Steel tariffs and computer programming

Donald Trump has threatened to impose substantial tariffs on steel and aluminum. Assuming that he is more successful at thwarting these metallic immigrants to the U.S. than he has been for human immigrants from violence-plagued countries, what might it mean for American programmers?

Back in the 1980s there were trade barriers that raised the price of steel in the U.S. compared to the world market price (see this Brookings Institution report from 1987). Steel that cost $100,000 in the U.S. could be purchased for $76,000 elsewhere.

A Babcock and Wilcox subsidiary west of Houston made “air-cooled heat exchangers” for industrial plants. These worked like car radiators, blowing air over fluid flowing back and forth through finned tubes. Each one was a steel structure roughly the size of a house and was custom-engineered via a process that included roughly one person-year of work. The company was struggling because Korean competitors were offering finished heat exchangers at a retail price, delivered to the U.S., that was about the same as what Babcock and Wilcox would pay for the raw steel.

Computervision (CV) sold B&W on the idea that CAD would restore their competitive edge. A mostly automated design process would cut the marginal cost of engineering and reduce the time to market. CV was a pioneer in the market currently dominated by AutoCAD, but the system would need an additional software program on top of the basic drawing system. Programmers at CV worked at this unsuccessfully for about a year.

In 1984, I stepped in, through a start-up company, to help build a Lisp Machine program that could process a declarative specification language for 3D structures and, with customer specifications as the input, generate a 3D model and parts list as the output. The CV system would be used to render final engineering drawings. This program served as the foundation of ICAD, which was the most popular application program for the Lisp Machine and led to a plurality of Symbolics sales. Any company that made a customized product that could be broken down into 3D boxes was a candidate for development of a rule base for automating the design in response to customer needs. I described it as “the world’s best CAD system if you have a Ph.D. in mechanical engineering… AND a Ph.D. in computer science.” The company was eventually sold to Oracle and the code became part of their sales configuration software.

That’s my personal experience with steel trade barriers!

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Boston terminal forecast for tomorrow’s Nor’easter

Thoughts and prayers for my American Airlines flight back to Boston from Dallas tomorrow evening. Here’s the terminal forecast for Logan Airport (“KBOS”):

KBOS 012331Z 0200/0306 10006KT P6SM BKN140
FM020300 04010KT P6SM OVC050
FM020700 04015G24KT 4SM -RA BR OVC012
FM021000 04020G30KT 2SM -RA BR OVC008 WS020/05055KT
FM021400 03026G40KT 2SM +RA BR OVC008 WS020/04065KT
FM021800 03028G54KT 2SM +RA BR OVC008 WS020/04075KT
FM022300 03030G58KT 1 1/2SM -RA BR OVC020 WS020/04060KT
FM030400 01025G49KT 1SM -RASN BR OVC020 WS020/03055KT

For non-pilots… tomorrow at 6 pm wind will be from the Northeast at 30 knots gusting 58 knots (03030G58KT). Visibility will be 1.5 statute miles with light rain and mist. The sky will be overcast with clouds starting at 2000′ above the ground. The rarely seen “WS020/04060KT” means that at 2000′ above the ground the wind will be from magnetic 040 (compared to 030 on the ground) at 60 knots and thus there will be up to 30 knots of wind shear (WS). It calms down at 11 pm… to 25 knots gusting 49. A normal day in Patagonia!

[Friday morning update: American canceled this flight. The forecast had improved to “01024G43KT P6SM OVC015 ” so it is unclear why. The company rebooked me to fly on Sunday morning at 9:15 with a long layover at LGA. I would get into Boston at 7:30 pm. I tried contacting them by phone, but was put on hold for an hour.]

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The wife fights the plaintiffs, physics edition

A few days ago I wrote “Stellar evolution in the #MeToo era“. With plaintiff predators circling, it seems that the first cougar to get to what is now the carcass is defending her kill. NancyDahl’s Twitter feed:

Let’s have a mainstream story on a real crime – such as how easy it is these days for women to get away with slanderous comments and false allegations manufactured with malicious intent.

There is another whisper network, you call “undercurrent”, that is much more legitimate. It is full of cautions for and amongst men who are the routine targets of delusional feminist aggression and professional victimhood that plagues the skeptic community. Slander is a crime.

We should be skeptical about disreputable sources, lack of evidence, biased reporting, and informed about the psychology of professional victims.

1. Those articles you refer to as “anti-metoo” could also be called “pro-rational”.
2. Since when is a respectful proposition a crime?

I showed this to a friend in the software patent litigation world. His comment: “It is like different classes of shareholders fighting over liquidation preferences when a company goes south. Maybe the wife should be considered the Series A investor?”

[Update: These two won’t be hanging out together on campus in the near-term. “Lawrence Krauss banned from Arizona State University campus following misconduct allegations”, which notes “ASU stated that the university had not received any complaints from ASU students, faculty or staff about Krauss.”]

Related:

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Is Trump right about letting teachers bring their guns to school?

Asking “Is Trump right?” would get me defriended by 90 percent of my Facebook circle. But this weblog is a safe space for inquiry!

Absurd as the idea sounds, given that U.S. teachers have an uneven performance record when it comes to the basics, I’m wondering if Trump is correct about teachers being the only real defense against would-be school shooters.

One thing that has been learned from a variety of mass shootings is that U.S. “first responders” are not like U.S. Marine Corps soldiers in the movies, e.g., “As Gunman Rampaged Through Florida School, Armed Deputy ‘Never Went In’”

Suppose that we can’t use legislation and coercion to confiscate all privately-owned guns in the U.S. and we’re not willing to tolerate a single shooter being able to fire at will in a “gun-free” school zone until the police have come up with a strategy for going in at zero personal risk. Is there an answer other than “it would have to be someone already stuck inside the school who would be willing to take the risk of returning fire”?

Its seems reasonable to assume that teachers bringing guns to school would probably result in quite a few accidental and/or enraged teacher shootings, perhaps statistically exceeding the number of mass shooting victims saved, but this issue is more about emotions than numbers.

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Binary gender at Harvard

Since at least 2015, Harvard students have had a full menu of gender ID options available to them (“Harvard allows students to pick new gender pronouns” (Boston Globe)). Yet recently I had to fill out a form from the Harvard IT department and the choice was stark: “Male” or “Female”.

[Separately, Harvard uses the same term for someone who is going to be on campus temporarily as the FBI uses for a wide range of suspected criminals: “Person of Interest“.]

What about be the change that you want to see in the world?

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