Bad news and worse news on coronavirus

by philg

Bad news if you’re unhealthy: “99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says” (Bloomberg):

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

The Rome-based institute has examined medical records of about 18% of the country’s coronavirus fatalities, finding that just three victims, or 0.8% of the total, had no previous pathology. Almost half of the victims suffered from at least three prior illnesses and about a fourth had either one or two previous conditions.

More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease. … All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions.

And now for the worse news… (for everyone)

My personal prayer has been that coronavirus will have a tough time surviving heat and humidity, as suggested by “High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19” (a Chinese team). Rain on this parade: “Florida coronavirus cases jump by nearly 100, multiple new cases in Central Florida”. Highs are in the 80s right now in Orlando.

Readers: What do you think? If the coronavirus is spreading in the Florida heat and humidity, what hope is there for a summer slowdown in the rest of the country?

17 thoughts on “Bad news and worse news on coronavirus”

  2. I think the old and health comprised are going to get it and die no matter what we do, a bunch of them would die on the same timeline without corona. And trying to stop the earth from spinning is going to kill and harm more people, through poverty etc., then going full herd immunity – death to weaklings.
    Local supermarket is still busy but had plenty of milk, meat and paper products.

  3. For an alternative viewpoint, take a look at this page https://www.wodarg.com/ by the former chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe Health Committee. (English content is further down the page.)

    His main point is that we see so many SARS-CoV-2 cases because everybody with pulmonary issues is now being tested for it. But SARS-CoV-2 may not be the causative agent, just one of the many viruses that are typically “along for the ride” on people with such diseases.

  4. I think the hysterical overreaction to the virus will cause more human suffering than if it were left to take its course unimpeded. The elderly and ill people dying from the virus are being spared something worse (e.g. cancer, dementia) a little later. I hope I’m that lucky when my time comes.

  5. Heat, humidity and transmission!

    No contradiction here, when heat and humidity is high outside, then inside in the South and Southwest is cold and dry! AC dries the inside air.

  8. “Florida coronavirus cases jump by nearly 100 … Highs are in the 80s right now in Orlando

    Two words: spring break. A huge influx of visitors combined with an elderly population of retirees. What could go wrong?

  9. I wonder how it will handle real hot and dry desert heat. Say 110 degrees and 8 percent humidity.

  10. The hysteria around BatUpYerBum Fever is of greater note than the disease itself.

    The antidote to the hysteria is to spend sn evening looking over mortality statistics, both as rates and absolute numbers.

    I get the distinct feeling China fakes its death rate numbers — the numbers have no variation against the trend. Death is never as predictable as a Party Kommissar’s report.

    Mortality statistics take a long time to compile. My guess is that we won’t know what is really happenning now for two years — after all the data is collected and collated
    @philg — where do you go for the most up to date mortality statistics?

    Italy has had really high death rates recently that have been trending up. The thousand coronavirus deaths must be considered against the backdrop of the two-hundred-seventy-thousand or so deaths of other causes in Italy this year.

  11. The reported rate is a function of increased testing as much as infection. We can assume if people are really avoiding each other, it should have already peaked. The problem is the families & married people who can’t avoid each other.

    The preference for infecting men is a social phenomenon. Men are the ones risking their lives going out to get food while the women stay home. Most of the jobs still being staffed are male only.

  12. Let’s see. Italy has crude death rate of 11 (deaths annually per 1000 people). (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CDRT.IN) . Italy has 60 mil. inhabitants, it means 60.000.000*0.011/366 = 1.800 deaths daily. More then half of the corona related deaths seem to be in Lombardy, 10.000.000 inhabitants. If Lombardy has same crude death rate as Italy, it means that 1.800/6 = 300 deaths daily in Lombardy should be average. Yesterday Italy reported ~450 new corona deaths, probably more then half in Lombardy. It would be very interesting to know how many people die daily in Italy (and Lombardy) now, not corona related number, but total number.

    It would be interesting to know what is average death rate in some month and country and what is variation, e.g. in bed flu year and in normal year.

  15. Italians have a higher death rate due to flu – twice the US average. So, it’s no surprise that the corona virus is hitting them harder.

  16. Well, I am seeing exponential growth in Thailand. Meanwhile, the temperature in Bangkok is 94 degrees F. Therefore, I am doubtful that high temperatures are impacting it much.

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