Norwegian government admits that lockdown was a mistake

by philg

“Norway health chief: lockdown was not needed to tame Covid” (Spectator):

the Norwegian public health authority has published a report with a striking conclusion: the virus was never spreading as fast as had been feared and was already on the way out when lockdown was ordered. ‘It looks as if the effective reproduction rate had already dropped to around 1.1 when the most comprehensive measures were implemented on 12 March, and that there would not be much to push it down below 1… We have seen in retrospect that the infection was on its way down.’ Here’s the graph, with the R-number on the right-hand scale:

Camilla Stoltenberg, director of Norway’s public health agency, has given an interview where she is candid about the implications of this discovery. ‘Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.’

Norway’s statistics agency was also the first in the world to calculate the permanent damage inflicted by school closures: every week of classroom education denied to students, it found, stymies life chances and permanently lowers earnings potential. So a country should only enforce this draconian measure if it is sure that the academic foundation for lockdown was sound. And in Stoltenberg’s opinion, ‘the academic foundation was not good enough’ for lockdown this time.

I am not expecting too many other governments to admit that they panicked and made a mistake by shutting down just as the virus was about to fade out mostly by itself.

Related:

  • “Reopening schools in Denmark did not worsen outbreak, data shows” (Reuters): “You cannot see any negative effects from the reopening of schools,” Peter Andersen, doctor of infectious disease epidemiology and prevention at the Danish Serum Institute said on Thursday told Reuters. In Finland, a top official announced similar findings on Wednesday, saying nothing so far suggested the coronavirus had spread faster since schools reopened in mid-May.

17 thoughts on “Norwegian government admits that lockdown was a mistake”

  1. Regardless of whether this conclusion is correct or not (I suspect it’s not, given how confidently they claim to be able to calculate the effect of closing schools for a single week), the correct decision to make in March is the one based on the best available information you have in March, not the best available information you have in May.

    Given that the virus is reported to have killed >100,000 Americans despite our lockdown measures, and <5,000 people in China after they locked down Wuhan, it seems hard to argue that the problem with the American response is that we did too much rather than not enough. Even if you’re selfish to an irrational extent and completely convinced that you won’t get sick or die, Chinese people can go to Disneyland right now and Americans can’t. What does that say about the relative statuses of our nations?

    • A stunning and humble admission even if one might have doubts whether she is not right. Especially in the light of many pundits saying how much better Norway was in comparison to Sweden ! One would imagine that they would have taken the perhaps unearned credit and just basked in the glory of their wisdom …

    • I too found this astonishing and not inspiring confidence in Norway’s statistics agency: “every week of classroom education denied to students, it found, stymies life chances and permanently lowers earnings potential”

  2. Here in Massachusetts, Baker is set to reveal the Phase II reopening for restaurants on June 6. Apparently every parameter in a restaurant’s operations has been modeled, down to spices and condiments at the table.

    “Condiments and similar products (e.g., salt, pepper, and salad dressing) should not be pre-set on tables and should instead only be provided upon request either in single-serving portions (e.g., individual packages or cups) or in serving containers that are sanitized between each use.”

    “In the event of a presumptive or actual positive COVID-19 case of a worker, patron, or vendor, the restaurant must be immediately shut down for 24 hours and then must be cleaned and disinfected in accordance with current CDC guidance before re-opening.”

    It is an absolute tour-de-force of regulation. If I owned a restaurant, I’d rather close it down and leave the state.

    https://www.mass.gov/info-details/safety-standards-and-checklist-restaurants#social-distancing-

  3. > not expecting too many other governments to admit that they panicked

    The British government won’t be among those few, that’s for sure. The UK’s lockdown, according to this account, has been a major disaster. In addition to his own observations, Dr Kendrick points to a BMJ article estimating that lockdown killed about twice as many as the virus, even though the virus was allowed to enjoy an all-you-can-eat buffet of care home residents.

    • Thanks to the link to the heretic MD (https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/ ). I guess he is not an “expert” since we definitely do not want to follow his advice!

      I am pretty sure that he would have been deplatformed by all of the U.S. social media services, plus YouTube.

    • Should we be following his advice on statins as well since he is an expert on that topic too?

    • @LinePilot There is a lot out there, some from precious credentialed types, on statins being a really bad idea.

  4. For the most part, the only policy that truly seems to have made a difference is forced isolation of anyone showing symptoms or exposed to someone who tested positive. Is there any Western country where that’s legal?

  5. “I am not expecting too many other governments to admit that they panicked and made a mistake by shutting down just as the virus was about to fade out mostly by itself.”

    So true, but so much the wrong thing to do. An abundance of caution decision is nothing to be ashamed of, inability to reconsider once obviously wrong (~Mar 19) is.

    You see you have a fuel leak, you go to max glide, you see you have plenty of fuel to reach your destination, you stay at max glide. Your passengers would not have been angry with minutes late, but sure are about hours late.

  6. “20/20 hindsight”.

    If you could predict the future, it wouldn’t be a risk.

  7. “every week of classroom education denied to students, it found, stymies life chances and permanently lowers earnings potential. ”

    Just like cigarettes. Every cigarette takes a certain well known (to scientists, not me) number of minutes off your life and it is a proven linear equation.

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