Good news from the Department of Correlation DOES Equal Causation: if we keep our schools closed, coronavirus will go away and leave us alone. From the maximally prestigious JAMA: “Association Between Statewide School Closure and COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality in the US”
Some excerpts:
All 50 states closed schools between March 13, 2020, and March 23, 2020.
The absolute effects associated with school closure during the 26-day period after school closure (days 17-42), which were calculated using model estimates with the assumption of linear growth, yielded 638.7 cases per 100 000 that would have occurred if schools had remained open (Table 3). Compared with the 214.8 cases per 100 000 estimated from the school closure model, the absolute difference associated with school closure was 423.9 (95% CI, 375.0 to 463.7) cases per 100 000.
In March 2020, states enacted multiple nonpharmaceutical interventions, including closing schools, nonessential businesses, and restaurants and bars, and prohibiting large gatherings, to curb SARS-CoV-2 spread and prevent death. Completely isolating the effects of any single nonpharmaceutical intervention is impossible because recommendations for increased handwashing, cleaning, and wearing of masks evolved simultaneously. Measured COVID-19 incidence also was affected by testing availability, which was limited early in the pandemic and varied nationally.
The authors reject the “Flatten the Curve” dogma as it was explained to us back in March. Infections are not merely delayed. They are prevented. The shutdown was “to curb SARS-CoV-2 spread and prevent death” and “school closure may be effective in curbing SARS-CoV-2 spread and preventing deaths during future outbreaks.”
Should we be more afraid of touching a dog with coronaplague in his/her/zir/their fur (an often-voiced concern of neighbors here in the Boston area) or a child?
Studies have documented lower attack rates for children, and children comprise a small proportion of documented infections. Children may be less susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection; however, studies have documented viral shedding in asymptomatic children.
#AbundanceOfCaution time! #KeepThemSafeKeepSchoolsShut!
If you’re going to criticize this paper, keep in mind that, based on the journal, this is the absolute pinnacle of American medical thinking! I would like to re-title the paper, though, even if I don’t feel distinguished enough to criticize the statistical methods employed. Philip’s title for this work: “We closed our schools in March 2020 and coronavirus has hardly bothered us since then.”
Below, a picture of something we won’t be doing any time soon… bringing one of the flight school helicopters to a local school and explaining to the youngsters how it flies.
Related:
- “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False”
- “Teachers Are Wary of Returning to Class, and Online Instruction Too” (NYT, July 29): Unions are threatening to strike if classrooms reopen, but are also pushing to limit live remote teaching. Their demands will shape pandemic education. … remote learning failed many children this spring, deepening achievement gaps by race and income. … one of the stickiest points of contention being how many hours per day teachers should be required to teach live via video. … a full school day over video would not be feasible for either students or teachers (although some private schools have embraced it).
That is a wonderful photo of you and the kids. Note they are all paying attention (unlike Zoom meetings!) and listening to you (adults as well). Thanks for doing that. PS Were you telling a epidemiology joke ? 🙂
I fear we will be in the grip of this virus for years. We have no coordinated plan in the US to deal with it. We have no leadership. No direction. We have conflicting science. We have a huge percentage of people who will refuse to take a vaccine…if we even get an effective one. We have the highest infection rate in the world, and it’s getting worse. We’re a pariah to the rest of the world. I’m retired and have given serious thought of temporarily moving to Canada. I’m searching for a path to do that.
Instead we argue about masks, social distancing, hand washing, letting children go to school. Many folks ignore any advice whatsoever…so it doesn’t matter what you do. We will watch our economy go to shit because even if you do open it fully, many will still isolate.
Might as well let the kids go to school and see what happens.
“ We have no coordinated plan in the US to deal with it. We have no leadership. No direction. We have conflicting science.”
Isn’t all this going to be fixed on November 3rd?
UN says the lockdowns are killing ten thousand kids a month https://www.wusa9.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-hunger-10000-children-per-month-dead/507-13ba37fa-e5db-40e9-a356-f26da0d86479
But if lockdowns save one boomer from a slightly earlier death it is worth it. Am I right? Boomers are special they were the first generation to watch the previous generation fake a moon landing.
I do wonder how much of the nonsense is driven by government grabbling for more control and how much is caused by the boomer’s fear of death.
I don’t think that logic applies in the US since the typical America would be healthier and probably actually live longer if they consumed less food.
Also, as governors all around the country are discovering, it’s not possible to make the economic damage go away by ignoring the problem and letting the hospitals fill up and loading the bodies en masse onto refrigerated trucks. No matter how much you try to cook the numbers, people will find out eventually and some fraction of them will reduce their economic activity to protect themselves. Getting the virus under control is a much better way to help the economy.
Sorry, Canada doesn’t have a wide-open immigration system like the U.S. They aren’t letting in people old people like you!
I’m going to seek in! Nobody will notice.
Should be “sneak” in. Damn text corrector. I just want to stay for 6 months.
https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js
tl;dr: zinc + Trump pills for everyone, manufactured in the USA by Kodak pharmaceuticals. Stop covid and create American jobs, what’s not to love?
This fall, Massachusetts universities that reopen are the de facto testing grounds for the measures governors will be using in the future on the general population. Everyone on a college campus is legally an adult, but they can be required to submit to all of the strictures: the invasive contact tracing, forced quarantines, movement restrictions, twice-weekly testing, use of electronic monitoring, etc. Once it’s been done to the students, everyone else is next.
https://patch.com/massachusetts/medford/medford-mayor-concerned-over-tufts-reopening-amid-rising-cases
If this polling matches reality, it explains many things about the public’s reaction to covid. This is the from the detailed data of a poll in the US:
https://www.kekstcnc.com/media/2787/covid-tracker-4-usa-tables.xlsx
” Q40. Which % of the population in your country do you think… – Have died from coronavirus
Base: All respondents
Mean 9.3%”
The subgroup breakouts are interesting to look at. The question is: does this indicate the pubic doesn’t have a clue what the number of deaths in the US is, or the population of the US, or how percentages work? Or do they just not think it through and panic porn in the media has led them to just have that as their off the top impression of the magnitude of this? Or is there something odd about the way the polling company did the poll?
I ran into it on a UK site that summarized:
https://lockdownsceptics.org/2020/07/29/latest-news-88/
“This is astonishing. An opinion pollster – Kekst CNC – has discovered that the people of Scotland believe that 10.23% of the UK population have died from coronavirus! That’s approximately seven million people, more than the entire population of Scotland (5.454 million). No wonder mobs of nationalists are setting up makeshift roadblocks on the English border.
Admittedly, Kekst only asked 89 Scots, so it’s a tiny sample, but the polling company asked 527 women across the UK the same question and they think that 9.91% of the population have succumbed to the virus. Men are less pessimistic – they believe 3.45% of the population have died – but the mean figure is 6.76%, or four-and-a-half million. And in the US, the mean is a whopping 9%! That’s twenty nine-and-a-half million.”
The overview page from the polling company:
https://www.kekstcnc.com/media/2793/kekstcnc_research_covid-19_opinion_tracker_wave-4.pdf
Apparently not only Sweden, but also other Nordic countries do not believe much in maskology:
“According to a recent survey by YouGov, only five to 10 percent of respondents in the Nordic countries said they used a mask in public settings, a figure that has remained stable since the start of the crisis in March”
“In supermarkets, on buses, and along the streets of capitals — such as Stockholm, Copenhagen, Oslo, Helsinki and Reykjavik — face masks are a rare sight, worn only by a small minority, many of who are tourists.”
https://news.yahoo.com/no-country-face-masks-nordics-brush-off-mouth-095007454.html
Dr. Fauci doubles down on masks, saying they’ll also help prevent the flu this year, and he raises with goggles and/or face shields. Symptoms of the flu will commingle with those of COVID-19 so people who have a fever will be quarantining because of the flu, not COVID.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/dr-fauci-wear-goggles-eye-shields-prevent-spread/story?id=72059055
“You have mucosa in the nose, mucosa in the mouth, but you also have mucosa in the eye,” he continued. “Theoretically, you should protect all the mucosal surfaces. So if you have goggles or an eye shield you should use it.”
Meanwhile Pritzker in Illinois is warning he’s going to roll back reopening, and we know that Massachusetts and New York are poised to do the same thing. In the background, GDP cratered 32.9% in Q2, unemployment claims are spiking again, the benefits are expiring, and it looks like we’re going to crash the economy into the wall for a second time.
All of this is GOOD. COVID-19 is saving the planet.
Right on cue, Climate Change is being added to the mix, through the National Geographic ad at the top of the article, which takes you to their Roundtable on Climate Change:
“Climate change is not just happening in the future.
It’s happening right now.
And while over time it will effect everyone,
The impact it is having today is not felt equally.
But there IS A SOLUTION and we have even witnessed some of its impact:
During recent lockdowns, there were fewer cars on the road, fewer planes in the sky, and fewer factories in full gear. The air was clear. Pollution levels were down. And nature was making a comeback. We saw signs of a new path forward. Nature took charge.
It’s time we FOLLOW HER LEAD. So let’s not go back to normal. Let’s not go back to how it was…”
So there you have it. COVID-19 and its lockdowns may be inconvenient for us, but they’re good for the planet.
Here’s the link: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/its-our-home-2020/
It’s explicit now, from Procter and Gamble: COVID-19 isn’t a bug, it’s a feature!
If they fly an AW109 to school in Calif*, it’s a recession. If they fly an R44, it’s a depression.
Y is the USA.EU and UK not bothered,about the COVID deaths in their part of the world ?
Could it be that they want it ? Who are the dead ? The dead are the pensioners, and the persons,who are fatally sick.dindooohindoo
The gainer in every combo,is the West – which makes one wonder,how the COVID magically mutated in its new avatar.
Posit No.1
Assuming that these dead persons in the West,had a residual life of 15 years, and we can assume that,by August,2020,there will be around 600000 dead in the West.
The pension to a pensioner,would not be less than 12,000 USD per annum, on an average,at the minimum.In addition, the medical and other social costs,on an aged pensioner,would be not less than another 8,000 USD per annum.
If they die,then on 6,00,000 people,if the West saves 20,000 USD per annum, you net USD 12 Billion,PER ANNUM – which will be around 200-300 billion for 15 years
One could argue that the US Fed just printed,the USD 12 Billion – but now it need not.The Youth in the west,had to work at high rates of tax and deductions – to finance the aged pension and health care benefits – which ultimately,led to outsourcing.
The scam would be shocking,if the dead,had no insurance ! That would be telling ! If 6,00,000 are dead,with insurance and an average insurance claim,of USD 1,00,000 – then you have a bomb – to wipe out the insurers.
If 10 million die – we are looking at net savings of USD 200 billion per annum and USD 3 Trillion over 15 years.This will also solve the health insurance problems in the US/EU,as the high claim insurers,will cease to exist – and thus lower the insurance costs,for the young,and the cost of labour in manufacturing.
If the aggregate savings on pensions and medical costs are USD 100,000 per annum,then on 10 million dead,we have a saving of ISD 1 trillion per annum,as a perpetual annuity (which is the minimum target – I suspect) – as the strategem ,is to kill people,with co-morbidities – and these are the people,who are a burden on the medical and pension infrastructure.
So the private LIFE insurers,take a 1 time HIT,in terms of claims paid out – and the state,gets a recurring benefit,in terms of pensions and health care costs – of which,some of the gains of the state,are passed back to the insurers,to offset the claim losses (and keep insurance rates low),and some of the gains to the state, are passed back to the residual young population,to reduce the rates of medical and life insurance.
Posit No.2
Large number of services and industries,in the west,will die out.That will release labour and reprice resources and rents – to drastically lower costs – and that will make,”Make in USA”, viable
How will the state finance the loss of tax revenue and GDP.Ultimately,the state will have to demonetise the deposits, in banks, of the westerners.Simple ! The USA will not be able to demonetise the PRC holdings of US T-bills – not even if the PRC sinks a US aircraft carrier in the South China Sea.
Posit No.3
All the nations who borrowed loans from PRC – will now force the PRC to do debt write offs.That will be a huge loss to the PRC,after the manufacturing shift from PRC to West.Post COVID,If 200 million people are unemployed in PRC – then you have Tiananmen – Part 2 – and then a PRC attack,on the Indian weasels, and US satellite states,like Taiwan.and new stooges like Vietnam.
Of Course,the PRC could also force the IMF,and the WB,to waive loans – but the harm to the PRC,will be done 1st.
Posit No.4
Trump postpones the US Polls,as people cannot stand in queues,and no electioneering,is possible – and he has the cure – and by September,the pensioners are dead – death rate and infections rates drops ….. who is the gainer ? If Trump is winning – Putin will stay calm – else,he might attack Eastern EU.If Trump is winning – then it will be the last chance for PRC to annex Taiwan and Vietnam – and make Trump lose face. But the odds of PRC action is medium.
Posit No.5
With massive unemployment in the West – the migrants will exit.Asians were made to clean toilets – that is their worth.They will exit.That will solve the migrants problem,rents and property rates will fall,labour will reprice,and the Westerners,will have to,start to work
The West has to take a BIG PICTURE view.South East Asia and Indian and Nepal ,are over populated,and there is no humanity there.There is no sentience,in the “so called humans”.They are robots – and 80% of them,have to die.Their time is over – they are obsolete, a dead weight,and a burden on earth.This will de-price the resources sector,lower demand,and solve the environment problem,forever.
Africans have been exploited,for at least ,2000 years – and they deserve,many more chances.
There are 3 simple steps
Are the “so-called humans” – having a “sentience” – to be assessed based on their “individual and collective actions”
If not,then they are “robots”
It is time to “terminate the robots”
It is the moral and ethical solution.They are redundant and obsolete,and there is no purpose served,by their existence.Nations in Asia,will not be able to feed or employ these worms,and that will cause strife.hate,violence, genocide,jingoism and the rise of right wing=demagogic demonic dictators – and then, catacylysmic wars – which will ultimately,harm the West. Anywhich way,the robots will be purged – Virus is better than nukes – for the bots,and the environment.
The COVID antibodies,will ultimately reside in 7 billion people,and those,are the receptors,of the next,”terminal bio-weapon” which will hook on those humans, and then based on a mix of the DNA,Genes,latitudes and morbidities – terminate the robots.
It is all evolution.