A Dutch friend asked me, during a weekend WhatsApp, to predict the election outcome. (He also asked “Why couldn’t the Democrats have run Tutankhamun or Elvis? They’re at least as alive as Joe Biden.”) I responded that it was impossible for anyone to predict anything because (1) people who support Trump would be afraid to give an honest answer to a poll-taker, (2) the U.S. “news” is now mostly propaganda designed by the editors to achieve their desired electoral results. “It’s impossible to get unbiased information about what people outside of one’s immediate neighborhood actually think.”
But maybe for fun we can have a bragging rights pool on this blog!
I will go first. I’m a big fan of the “tomorrow will be the same as today” method of weather forecasting and also that people vote their personal interest. So a Ph.D. who works in a government-funded university, a physician who benefits when the government directs more money to health care, and a lawyer who gets paid to help companies navigate the regulatory landscape will all vote for the Democrats and the promised bigger government. A working-class native-born American who is being financially injured by low-skill immigration (Harvard study) will vote for the Republicans. A small business owner who can’t afford the lawyers necessary to thrive in a heavily regulated high-tax environment will similarly vote Republican.
The one factor that I think could drive change is that Americans have been convinced that the federal government can control whether or not people become infected with COVID-19. The raging plagues all over Europe, in countries with governments previously considered excellent (if costly), can’t compete against American media constantly reminding us that Trump is personally responsible for every COVID-19 death on U.S. soil. Also, a lot of Americans are depressed after being locked down for nearly 8 months. Depressed people are willing to try almost anything to escape depression (even the antidepressant drugs that don’t work). Finally, the coronapanic and associated governor-ordered shutdowns have left more Americans than ever dependent on the government. People on welfare tend to vote for Democrats. The “Trump has no empathy” attack has been common in 2020 and it makes sense only if voters expect that the government will be their primary source of housing, health care, food, etc.
I’m going to consider WalletHub’s ranking of states by coronavirus restrictions as a guide to where Americans are eager to surrender what had been considered their freedoms and have the government take care of them. Two Trump states from 2016 that have meekly submitted to lockdowns and school closures are Texas and Pennsylvania. Florida, on the other hand, ranks high in freedom and the governor ordered teachers to teach. So I am going to predict a Trump victory in Florida and a loss in Texas. (Maybe this will be wrong because Bloomberg’s $millions for felons changed the electorate in Florida so much?) The locked-down-and-rioting population in Pennsylvania accepted Rachel Levine (“an American pediatrician currently serving as the Pennsylvania Secretary of Health. … She is one of only a handful of openly transgender government officials in the United States”) as their guide so they’ll accept Joe Biden.
Let’s look at the results from 2016: 304/227 in electoral votes. We subtract 58 for the cower-in-place folks in Texas and Pennsylvania and now Donald Trump goes home to tax-free Florida at 246 while President Harris comes in with 285.
Summarized by our unkind friends in lockdown across the pond:
Backup prediction in case the above is spectacularly wrong: Trump won’t win any state that he didn’t win in 2016. Joe Biden’s promise to lock everyone down will be too compelling for a nation that was risk-averse and is now fleeing to what it perceives as security.
Potential second theory: social media companies will deliver this election to the Democrats by driving high turnout (thought to help Democrats and hurt incumbents). I opened Facebook yesterday and almost the entire page was obscured by the company’s in-house ad urging me to vote:
Related:
- Election 2008 Prediction: Obama wins by 5 percent; we will all be depressed
- “Boston Businesses Board Up in Preparation for Potential Protests on Election Night” (NBC): unhappy Trump supporters will drive in from Indiana to riot in Boston if Biden-Harris win?
- “Shops in downtown San Francisco boarding up ahead of election” (SF Gate): angry Republicans will come from Idaho to riot?
- “NYC businesses board up stores in preparation for unrest on election night” (ABC)
- Citizens for a Planned Economy, my 2012 take on what Americans from both parties say that they want
Trumpslide
But by how many electoral votes? We can’t declare you the winner without numbers!
316 Trump 222 Harris
I’m with the dog.
That didn’t age well.
Trumpslide and some blue states are going to flip, others will be close enough so the blue residents will flip out.
Numbers? Which states flip?
Biden wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania by a hair (the results may be contested), Trump barely keeps Florida, holds on to Texas, but loses the EC by 280 to 258. Harris wins the Presidency.
Susan Collins loses Maine. GOP Loses Colorado and Arizona, picks up Alabama, holds on in Iowa, Montana and North Carolina. The Senate stays (R) with 51 seats.
Nancy Pelosi stays speaker and Democrats are +14 in the House.
All media outlets reported Biden won by 9am & the stock market exploded, so that was a snoozer. It’s the end of all troubling times as we know them. The media pointed out how little people care about the economy compared to 30 years ago, so a candidate could actually win by promoting shutting down the economy, even though there was really nothing different he would do. Enough people collect entitlements, work for the government, or are well off enough for Biden to avoid the fate of Bush.
Wildcards: Runoff election is possible and even likely in Georgia. Pennsylvania results may take a long time. I don’t see a path to 270 for Trump. The Senate is going to be razor edge close. If I’m wrong by much the Democrats will have it all.
Coronavirus: Moderna vaccine turns out to be used pinball machine parts. Pfizer vaccine is OK in laboratory and tightly-controlled clinical environments but has to be chilled to -94 degrees F and winds up being too logistically complicated to administer across the nation. We wind up buying a vaccine from the Russians and everybody grows a second head.
“But maybe for fun we can have a bragging rights pool on this blog!” This article doesn’t seem to mention the great Toucan Sam and his excellent predictions. He predicted the first Trump victory and of course the Biden/Harris victory in the primary. Toucan Sam has long felt that Trump will win a second term. Toucan Sam predicts it will be close but trump will win with around 300 electoral votes!
I don’t know how much it’s worth elsewhere, but out here where I live in Deplorableland, people voting for the greatest criminal in human history are turning out in larger numbers than any other election in recent memory. At 3PM this afternoon the line was out the door, and now it’s wrapping into the parking lot. After 5 the crowd is expected to grow.
And all these people know their vote for President doesn’t matter! Same thing with their vote for almost anything else, except the ballot initiatives, both of which are more important than usual.
Alex: why are there lines? Have there been lines in previous elections? With so many people voting early, I can’t understand why there would be a capacity crunch.
@Philg: I was surprised by that at 3 in the afternoon, because most people are still at work. The polling stations are full and they have 2 cops wiping them down in between voters. It only took me 10 minutes to vote, so the line is moving fast. I asked the poll workers if it’s been like that all day and she said: “Yeah, we’re getting punchy (tired) here. It’s been more people than we’ve ever seen.” Everyone’s wearing masks and trying to social distance, so that’s some of it, but the turnout is definitely higher than any I’ve seen.
The outcome will be close, but Democrats will win the presidency and the Senate. Numbers do not really matter — progressives infected all states including TX, FL quite well with their wannabe commie ideology. It took decades, but the results are here.
Rot is running just too deep amongst what passes for elites (who really define elections outcome) in this country, especially and critically younger “educated” elites. Sorry, Sam.
Prediction: Narrow Trump victory, but tied up in court for a few weeks in key upper midwest/rust belt states.
Trump: 271, Biden 267.
Causes:
1. Lockdown fatigue.
2. Optimistic polling. Again. (If true, perhaps we’ll need something like Hofstadter’s law for pollsters).
Ultimately, I’m predicting the electoral map will look similar to 2016. Trump loses Michigan and Ohio this time, but holds on in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
While I think some people blame him for the state of the country, or are turned off by him now that he’s not an unknown quantity, it won’t be enough to change the outcome.
Turmoil to ensue.
Prediction: covid will magically disappear right after the election.
Trump wins with over 300 electoral votes. the popular vote is close, 49-49
Based on the 83% count in Texas and 41% count in PA, I am now predicting that Toucan Sam heaps ridicule on me for being wrong about Texas and PA. I feel pretty confident in this prediction.
Thank you for mentioning me! Toucan is deep in thought and is still very nervous he is not convinced Trump will win yet! He hopes to squeak out a win but sadly it doesn’t look like Trump will cross 300 votes as he predicted earlier. Toucan hopes to ridicule you in person next year in Trump Country (winnebago co) at an expensive dinner (kindly paid for by our host!) Please take your vaccine early and often!
I am going to pull an Alex here and respond to myself, my apologies. It was incredibly stupid for Phil to think Texas was going to go for Biden. This truly deserves ridicule!
Toucan Sam, I am here to interfere in your elections, my prediction looking at the numbers at this time, Harris 250 / Trump 288. Trump will win the senate and Harris the house.
Note to readers: Pavel is a foreigner who has admitted to trying to interfere in our election! This may be a crime. Another note to readers the election is a little closer than I predicted (6 years ago) but I know Trump will win!
Updated prediction, Harris at 270 and Trump at 268 and at that point the civil war will start.
I know its fun to chatter about the election, but the country needs a government. This 50/50 split with winner take all does not work. 160 million angry people is not a good result no matter who is angry. Campaigns are supposed to select a government, not operate it. We are headed for another four years of stasis at the top. Let’s hope the parties use it to search for some leadership.
I didn’t make any prediction, but my suspicion was that the results would be manipulated so there was no clear winner, to facilitate a color revolution operation, and as of midday on November 4th that seems to be happening.
Mainstream polls under-estimated the Republican vote for President and also in the House and Senate races by a pretty substantial margin, and that is worth taking into consideration if there are future elections.