Impending Coronadoom for Minnesota, forecast versus reality

Americans are currently living under a forecast of “impending doom” from our CDC Director. Let’s review how folks in Minnesota reacted when their doom was forecast by scientists.

From March 25, 2020, “Governor Walz Issues Stay at Home Order for Minnesotans”:

Modeling released today by the Minnesota Department of Health and University of Minnesota predicts that more than 70,000 Minnesotans could die from COVID-19 if we take no action. The Governor’s two-week order to stay home is forecasted to significantly slow the spread of COVID-19 and allow the state time to make key preparations for the pandemic.

14 days to flatten the curve!

A year later, Matt Malkus looked at this.

Over the past 12 months, nearly 7,000 people in Minnesota actually did die with or from COVID-19, 0.12 percent of the estimated 5.7 million population (though not even Yale knows how many undocumented Americans live in America). So if we believe the model estimate of 70,000 dead, we could say that the cower-in-place keep-schools-closed-for-a-year strategy worked! How does the 0.12 percent death rate compare to what happened in give-the-finger-to-the-virus Sweden, from which many Minnesotans can trace their ancestry? This list of countries by COVID-19 death rate puts Sweden at a 0.13 percent COVID death rate (Sweden automatically tags anyone with a positive PCR test as a “COVID death”).

(As in Massachusetts, Minnesota does not include deaths by age or age group on their dashboard. Only “cases” are published and therefore a reader is left with the impression that COVID-19 primarily afflicts young and middle-aged Minnesotans:

if you had to guess the median age of a COVID-19 death from this chart you might pick 38 (it was 82 in Massachusetts before the data were pulled from the dashboard). Where Minnesota provides comprehensive charts, though, is in “COVID-19 Data by Race/Ethnicity”:

COVID-19 is exposing what has always been true: racism is pervasive and persistent. … We know that communities of color and Indigenous communities don’t need data to verify their experience. … In developing the dashboard, we knew it was important to provide descriptions that accompany the data to provide context so that false information and misunderstandings do not perpetrate harmful rhetoric and racial disparities.

For those prejudiced whites who might try to avoid their Latinx brothers, sisters, and binary resisters as carriers of disease… the Minnesota government anti-racism specialists helpfully explain that “Latinx Minnesotans are testing positive for COVID-19 at nearly 3 times the rate of white Minnesotans.”)

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8 thoughts on “Impending Coronadoom for Minnesota, forecast versus reality

  1. Somewhat related: Unless Charlie Baker has a sexual harassment scandal waiting to burst out of the woodshed and spill its bones all over the Commonwealth, it looks like his steady leadership has him on-track for reelection. 2022 is still a long way away, but so far at least, the Coronadoom is working.

    The latest Suffolk University/Boston Globe Poll:

    https://www.suffolk.edu/news-features/news/2021/03/31/01/34/suffolk-poll-shows-nearly-7-in-10-massachusetts-residents-approve-of-governor-charlie-baker

    Nearly 7 in 10 Mass. Residents Approve of Governor Charlie Baker — “Women Are Key to Massachusetts Comeback”

    On when we will return to normal:
    The Next Few Months: 12.2%
    By the End of the Year: 38.6%
    Several Years: 30.4%
    Never: 15%

    And megadoses of Coronadoom are also goosing the suburban real estate market. Today, my friend from the middle & upper-middle suburbs of northern NJ reports:

    “I just listed this home last night. We already have 15 appointments scheduled just for today and plenty more lined up for the next few days. If you want the highest price possible for your home in history contact me and I’ll put my 26 years of experience to work for you.”

    The house is offered at $489,000 for a 3 bedroom, 2 bath, 2,000 square foot, one story single family home with what looks like a 1 car attached garage. It’s nicely furnished inside with new kitchen, etc., and has a nice-sized fenced in back yard – but two years ago this could never have been a half-million dollar home, and I’ll bet it goes for significantly more than ask price.

    With a real estate market like this, who wants the Coronadoom to end?

    https://i.ibb.co/fYbXpnZ/SINGLEHOUSE.jpg

    • Yes, the majority of folks in Massachusetts love being locked down and the governor is giving them exactly the orders that they want! The U.S. would be a lot happier on net if everyone in Florida who loves top-down government and lockdowns would move to MA and everyone in MA who wants to walk outside without a mask on would move to FL. Similarly, those who want to wait for Gavin Newsom to tell them when to leave the house (and what color is their county) should move to CA and Californians who want freedom should move to one of the states near the top of https://wallethub.com/edu/states-coronavirus-restrictions/73818

    • @Philg: And Coronadoom + various other Dooms have also been a windfall for ammunition manufacturers. Why would anyone want our dooms and plagues to end when homes, guns and bullets are worth so much?

      420 Rounds of Winchester M855 5.56 NATO SS109 Green Tip FMJ 62 Grain Ammunition on Stripper Clips in an Ammo Can – $679.89 + $16.95 shipping. $1.66 per round! And that’s “Cheaper Than Dirt!” I haven’t been tracking it closely but I recall this ammo. being around $0.40 or $0.50 a round a couple of years ago.

      https://www.cheaperthandirt.com/420-rounds-of-winchester–m855-5.56-nato-ss109-green-tip-fmj-62-grain-ammunition-on-stripper-clips-in-an-ammo-can/FC-020892229242.html

    • $489,000 for 2,000 sq ft house in Northern NJ is really a bargain basement price. I have not seen such prices in Northern NJ. No wonder it has 15 appointments scheduled right away.

  2. > As in Massachusetts, Minnesota does not include deaths by age or age group on their dashboard.

    Not only that, we don’t see much data on COVID-19 death due to pre-existing conditions. Have we had a program to managed those vulnerable folks, this COVD mess would not have been what it is today.

  3. I shared with my real estate friend that I had anonymized his post and used it to illustrate why maybe nobody wants Coronadoom to end? He’s a good person, a friend for much more than 26 years – we’ve been through a few harrowing happenstances together – and he gave me a very honest and candid reply:

    “It needs to balance out and end. It’s not good for anyone. Very unhealthy for the market. Just hung up with an agent that’s submitting an offer for his client. It’s the 12th offer he is writing up for them. They are VA loan buyers which puts them at a disadvantage against FHA or conventional loans or the all cash offers.”

  4. I’m no real state agent, but up until Dec 2020, I spent 1 1/2 years looking for a 2-3 family home for my daughter and her husband (they got married in June 2019). I wanted to get them a multifamily home to start with (I don’t believe in renting just to be “independent” so they stayed with me in the fully finished basement of my house till Jan of this year) so that the rental income would help toward their mortgage and expanses. After 4-5 years or so, they can buy a single family home and keep this multifamily home as investment income.

    So for 1 1/2 years, as you can imagine, we saw *many* homes. Well, by *many* I mean the market was dry and whatever was on the market either was overpriced or, when the price was just right, the house was located in a sh*thole where you don’t want to live. And when we found the right home and we made an offer, even at or over the asking price, there is someone else will out price us and poof the house is gone in less then 24 hours.

    And if you think the story is better for single family homes, the answer is no it is not. A single family, 2 bedroom of about 1000 sq home on a tiny land of under 0.15 acre here in MA inside the 128 highway area is well over $500K. If you head over to near 495 highway area, it is still high starting at $400K (but you get a larger land like 0.25 acre). And don’t get me started on how high property taxes are, not to mention water / swear and trash collection free the city / town collects.

    Where homes are still reasonably priced at around $250K or even under, with much larger living space than what you find here in MA? Look in Red states.

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